International Commodity Trade Research Articles

Indonesian international trade analysis in agricultural sector case study of natural rubber commodities exports in the ASEAN free market

Natural Rubber is one of Indonesia's leading export commodities and is also one of the largest suppliers in the global market. Rubber and processed rubber export commodities are categorized under the Harmonized System Code 40001 (HS Code 4001) more frequently referred to as HS-4001 so that it is easier to analyze related to commodity trade transactions where in the last few years since 2011 the share of Indonesian Natural Rubber exports always in the top 10 largest exporters in the world. Besides China as the largest exporter, it turns out that Thailand is Indonesia's strongest competitor as a Natural Rubber exporter in ASEAN, therefore with the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) policy in 2016 it is believed that there has been a change in the trade system, namely the export of various commodities including Natural Rubber in the Market. ASEAN. This study uses a descriptive method using various reference sources and secondary data where a lot of data comes from online media, namely various previous studies, online news, and data collected through official websites of government agencies or organizations both national and international. The results of this study indicate that international trade in Indonesian Natural Rubber commodities experienced a significant increase after the implementation of the AEC in 2016 compared to several previous years. It is hoped that the Indonesian government can further encourage natural rubber producers and entrepreneurs to continue to optimize the export of this commodity.

Competitiveness Of Agricultural Commodities In International Trade

This study aims to find out the most important scientific concepts related to the competitiveness of agricultural commodities in international trade and based on previous research mapping, and to find out the weaknesses of scientific concepts in research related to the competitiveness of agricultural commodities in international trade. The method used is the Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method. The results of this study explain that the most important scientific concepts related to the topic of competitiveness are based on previous research mapping, namely; a) Competitiveness studies on marketing, price and production, b) Competitiveness studies on Innovation and entrepreneurship, c) Competitiveness studies on empowerment and local wisdom, d) Competitiveness studies on competitive and comparative advantages, e) Institutional study competitiveness. Previous year's research was limited to concepts and strategies for increasing institutional competitiveness in terms of productivity, quality of production results, and land area of transaction models, corruption control, government effectiveness, quality of regulations and rule of law, government support, institutional-based synergy of industry and MSMEs to improve Public Private Partnership (PPP), and from social solidarity and local wisdom is much stronger and more sustainable than because of government intervention.

Quarantine Disinfestation of Papaya Mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) Using Gamma and X-rays Irradiation.

Paracoccus marginatus is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that poses a significant quarantine threat to tropical and subtropical countries. Infested commodities in international trade should undergo phytosanitary treatment, and irradiation is recommended as a viable alternative to replace methyl bromide fumigation. Dose-response tests were conducted on the 2-, 4-, and 6-day-old eggs and gravid females of P. marginatus using the X-ray radiation doses of 15-105 Gy with an interval of 15 Gy. Radiotolerance was compared using ANOVA, fiducial overlapping and lethal dose ratio (LDR) test, resulting in no significant difference among treatments, except for the overall mortality and LDR at LD90 (a dose causing 90% mortality at 95% confidence level). The estimated dose for LD99.9968 was 176.5-185.2 Gy, which was validated in the confirmatory tests. No nymphs emerged from a total of 60,386 gravid females exposed to a gamma radiation dose range of 146.8-185.0 Gy in the confirmatory tests. The largest dose in confirmatory tests should be the minimum threshold for phytosanitary treatment, consequently, a minimum dose of 185 Gy is recommended for the phytosanitary irradiation treatment of papaya mealybug-infested commodities, ensuring a treatment efficacy of ≥99.9950% at 95% confidence level.

Beyond wells: Towards demand-side perspective to manage global methane emissions from oil and gas production

The international trade of oil/gas-implicated commodities could potentially jeopardize global methane mitigation targets when exporting countries have loose or even no methane regulations. Therefore, this paper constructs a demand-driven impacts model to uncover the impact of global consumption and international trade on regional oil and gas methane emissions in 2014. It's estimated that more than three-fifths of global oil & gas methane emissions are embodied in international commodity trade (e.g., petroleum, chemicals), primarily from large oil and gas suppliers (e.g., Russia, Nigeria and Iran) to large consuming economies (e.g., China, Japan and USA). Notably, more than three quarters of oil & gas methane emissions embodied in EU's final consumption occurs in other regions. Our results could facilitate targeted demand-side mitigation strategies (e.g., labeling low-emission products, shifting to a circular bio-economy) to complement supply-side efforts, especially considering the relatively loose supply-side methane regulations on oil and gas sectors in large exporting regions.

Rapid early-season maize mapping without crop labels

Maize (Zea mays), the second most-produced crop worldwide, serves as the cornerstone for global food security and human livelihood. Early-season maize mapping benefits maize production forecasting and other pre-harvest decision-making applications. However, most existing early-season mapping efforts rely heavily on either the current-year or historical crop labels to train classifiers, limiting the potential applications to new regions lacking crop labels. To explore the possibility of maize mapping only using satellite data in the early season, we proposed a Multi-temporal Gaussian Mixture Model (MGMM) to map maize planting areas without any crop labels. A chlorophyll content relevant proxy, named the Red-edge position (REP), was selected as model input, based on the truth that summer maize tends to show a higher chlorophyll content than other summer crops (e.g., soybean, cotton, peanut, sunflowers, etc.) in the peak season. The novel early-season mapping framework using the REP-based MGMM (MGMM-REP) was applied in four diverse areas (Iowa and Georgia in the US, Heilongjiang province (HLJ) in China, and Grand-Est in France). The MGMM-REP could generate maize maps more than two months before harvest with reasonable accuracy (F1 ≥ 77%) using all the available Sentinel-2 (S2) images and the Google Earth Engine platform (GEE). Our early-season maps agreed well with the existing crop maps and official statistics. The correlation coefficient (R) of the maize acreage between our early-season maps and statistics was higher than 0.94. The high inter-class difference of REP between maize and other summer crops could increase the F1 score by 2–47% compared to the other commonly used Vegetation indices (VIs). Since MGMM-REP does not rely on crop labels, it had the potential to be transferred to label-scarce maize-cropped regions and contribute to the international commodity trade and food security forecast.

Competitiveness of Namibia’s Agri-Food Commodities: Implications for Food Security

The global literature widely uses Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Lafay Index (LFI), Export Diversification (EDI), Hirschman (HI), and Major Export Category (MEC) to analyze international trade flows, though agricultural trade, specifically agri-food commodities consisting of food and feed commodities, is neglected in empirical works. Furthermore, the determinants of Revealed Comparative Advantages and the Lafay Index have received little attention, with little focus on the relationships between food insecurity as measured by the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and the aforementioned factors, including the RCA and LFI indices as explanatory variables with other macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the competitiveness of Namibia’s agri-food products, the factors that influence it, and their implication for food security. This study attempts to answer which factors affect agri-food comparative advantage, which agri-food commodities have a comparative advantage and disadvantage, and what the implications are to food security. The study employed regression analysis, the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, and various indices. Revealed Comparative Advantage and Lafay Index indicated a mixed result during the study period. Export Diversification and Hirschman indices indicated a less concentrated trade structure throughout the study period. The results of the market structure of the international agri-food market estimated by the Major Export Category revealed that Namibia was unduly dependent on agri-food commodities incorporated in this study. The regression result showed a significant negative influence of labor and land productivity on the aggregated RCA and LFI for agri-food commodities. Land productivity and GDP per capita impact the degree of food insecurity in Namibia. The study concludes that Namibia was not dependent on international trade of agri-food commodities and had little bearing on food security. These analyses enlighten policymakers about the competitiveness of the agri-food business and its implications for food security through evidence-based policy development.

Mapping social impacts of agricultural commodity trade onto the sustainable development goals

AbstractWhile international trade in agricultural commodities can spur economic development especially where governance is strong, there are also concerns about the local impacts of commodity production and their distribution on the environment and on people. The sustainable development goals (SDGs), though seeing trade as a means to support their achievement, recognise the need to address potential negative social and environmental impacts. It is therefore important to assess the contribution of international trade to the SDGs in commodity production areas. The environmental impacts of commodity production are widely acknowledged, but much less is known about its social impacts, and how this affects poverty reduction objectives across different dimensions. Impacts on human wellbeing and equity depend on a multitude of factors, including resources, systemic conditions and outputs of production. Through a broad literature review on soy, coffee, cocoa and palm oil, we show how studies have addressed different aspects of these factors and their impacts. The paper demonstrates how efforts by actors in global supply chains are related to a large number of SDGs and their targets. We link the social impacts and factors to the SDGs and a list of potential indicators and variables to guide operationalisation of assessments in new empirical studies.

E-Nose Technology for Mycotoxin Detection in Feed: Ready for a Real Context in Field Application or Still an Emerging Technology?

Mycotoxin risk in the feed supply chain poses a concern to animal and human health, economy, and international trade of agri-food commodities. Mycotoxin contamination in feed and food is unavoidable and unpredictable. Therefore, monitoring and control are the critical points. Effective and rapid methods for mycotoxin detection, at the levels set by the regulations, are needed for an efficient mycotoxin management. This review provides an overview of the use of the electronic nose (e-nose) as an effective tool for rapid mycotoxin detection and management of the mycotoxin risk at feed business level. E-nose has a high discrimination accuracy between non-contaminated and single-mycotoxin-contaminated grain. However, the predictive accuracy of e-nose is still limited and unsuitable for in-field application, where mycotoxin co-contamination occurs. Further research needs to be focused on the sensor materials, data analysis, pattern recognition systems, and a better understanding of the needs of the feed industry for a safety and quality management of the feed supply chain. A universal e-nose for mycotoxin detection is not realistic; a unique e-nose must be designed for each specific application. Robust and suitable e-nose method and advancements in signal processing algorithms must be validated for specific needs.

Estão as transições florestais associadas ao comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas?

Abstract Critics of the forest transition theory suggest that it occurs through the displacement of agricultural production abroad while exporting countries suffer agricultural expansion and deforestation. Other studies refute the idea of international trade as the main connection between the occurrence of the forest transition in importing countries and the advance of agricultural frontiers and deforestation in producing countries. Considering this divergence, we assessed whether international trade in agricultural commodities is associated with forest growth in importing countries and deforestation in exporting countries. Data on exports and imports of soy and palm oil among the leading countries in this market were confronted with their historical variation of forest cover between 1990 and 2020. The results suggest that global soy and palm oil markets significantly connect the exporting regions to importing countries that undergo forest transition.

Are forest transitions associated with the international trade of agricultural commodities?

Resumo Críticos da teoria de transição florestal sugerem que ela ocorre através do deslocamento da produção agrícola para o exterior, enquanto países exportadores sofrem expansão da agricultura e desmatamento. Outros estudos refutam a ideia do comércio internacional como principal elo entre a ocorrência da transição florestal nos países importadores e o avanço das fronteiras agrícolas e desmatamento nos países produtores. Considerando tal divergência, buscou-se avaliar se o comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas está associado ao crescimento florestal em países importadores e ao desmatamento em países exportadores. Dados das exportações e importações de soja e óleo de palma entre os principais países envolvidos nesse mercado foram confrontados com sua variação histórica da cobertura florestal entre 1990 e 2020. Os resultados sugerem que os mercados globais de soja e óleo de palma associam significativamente as regiões exportadoras aos países importadores que passam pela transição florestal.

Abnormal pricing in international commodity trading: Evidence from Ghana

Mispricing of international trade in natural resources contributes to significant tax base erosion from developing countries but is difficult to measure using aggregate trade statistics. In this paper, we apply a novel approach motivated by legal rules for trade and transfer mispricing to estimate abnormal pricing in gold and cocoa exports from Ghana, i.e., exports valued outside an assumed arm's length price range that indicates fair market values. Using daily frequency, transaction-level data from Ghana Customs, our results indicate abnormally undervalued exports of gold and cocoa from Ghana equalled USD 8.8 billion in constant prices (base year 2011) or USD 4.1 billion in current prices between 2011 and 2017. Approximately 11% of gold doré exports, 1% of cocoa bean exports, and 7.2% of cocoa paste exports appear abnormally undervalued. The implied corporate tax base erosion equals USD 2.2 billion in constant prices (base year 2011), corresponding to an average annual decrease of 0.3% in Ghana's tax-to-GDP ratio.

Lasiodiplodia iraniensis, a New Causal Agent of Tuber Rot on Yam (Dioscorea Species) Imported into the United States and Implications for Quarantine Decisions.

One negative consequence of international trade of agricultural commodities is the inadvertent global spread of crop diseases. Yam (Dioscorea spp.) is a staple food crop in many countries and is traded globally. Most of the commercially traded yams in the United States are imported. In late 2020, samples of yam tubers from a commercial facility were submitted to the plant diagnostic clinic at the UF/IFAS Tropical Research and Education Center in Homestead, Florida. Samples showed rotten symptoms and were drawn from lots that were marked to be destroyed because the source of the rotting symptoms was unknown. Preliminary isolation showed that a fungus was consistently associated with the symptoms and was confirmed in the subsequent pathogenicity test as the causal agent. The fungus grew profusely on potato dextrose agar (PDA) with highly melanized hyphae. Matured conidia showed longitudinal striations. Based on its growth pattern and morphology, it was suspected that this fungus may be in the genus Lasiodiplodia. DNA-based identification using partial sequences of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), β-tubulin (TUB2), 28S rDNA (LSU), and elongation factor alpha (EF1-α) genes confirmed the identity of the isolates as Lasiodiplodia iraniensis Abdollahz., Zare & A.J.L. Phillips (synonym: L. iranensis). This is the first report of L. iraniensis affecting yam and has implications for international trade. This finding will provide an important foundation for making quarantine decisions to prevent spread of this disease.

Limitations of CISG and Product Liability Act on Buyer’s Notification Obligation

Purpose - From the time when the existing international trade and international transportation were not smooth enough, the global trade market has rapidly shifted from offline to online and B2C online export has recently emerged as a new trend of export. Unlike companies that import goods in large quantities to date, for individual consumers, as a buyer, it is not easy to deal with material and personal damage due to defects in the imported goods. In CISG, although it is the most important factor in practice in defining the buyer’s obligation to notify of nonconformities, many disputes arise in the ’notification within a reasonable period’. It is not easy to detect defects within two years depending on the changing trade transaction method, and the specific period of the goods may vary. Depending on the characteristics of the goods, defects in the goods may occur after two years, and the period of two years is contrary to the purpose of protecting the buyer. Therefore, the elements of the rigid CISG need to be revised.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - This paper studies the main issues of the notification obligation of CISG and the Product Liability Act based on the legal approach. Based on the notification obligations of the CISG and the Product Liability Act, the reasonable period defined by the CISG shall be appropriately determined by adapting to specific events rather than uniform. In other words, through case comparison, it was found that CISG had a reasonable period of up to 2 years, but was given a reasonable period of at least 2 years and at least 10 years under the Product Liability Act. Therefore, the amendment is proposed to meet the purpose of protecting the buyer in the CISG’s obligation to notify.
 Findings - This paper improves the CISG clause, which is rigid and contrary to its purpose, and protects buyers who have suffered losses due to defective goods.
 Research Implications - This study is meaningful to protect buyers who lose their right to claim nonconformity from defective goods due to the application of CISG provisions that are criticized for being excessively harsh in international commodity trading, which will also be a reference for subsequent studies by other scholars.

Gaseous reactive nitrogen losses of agricultural systems in China influenced by crop trade

China plays an important role in the international trade of agricultural commodities. Considering the dynamic reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses of agricultural systems in China, a hypothesis was proposed that crop conversion in China would be correlated with the extent of crop trade, influencing Nr losses in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to verify the hypothesis based on a hybrid approach, which incorporated life cycle analysis (LCA), copula–Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and copula sampling. The approach was proven to be of benefit in (a) evaluating Nr losses in crop planting based on a LCA framework, (b) identifying dependencies and co-movements of the correlated variables in planting structures and crop trade using copula–MCMC simulations, and (c) recognizing fluctuations in Nr losses of crop planting in the future using copula-based sampling method. The planting structures and international trade of four types of crops (i.e. wheat, soybeans, maize, and rice) in 20 provinces of China indicated significant correlations, thus supporting the initial hypothesis. With the improvement of self-sufficiency in crop production, especially soybeans, Nr losses from the crop production of China in 2025 and 2030 would decrease by 8.43% and 4.26%, compared with those in 2018 (i.e. 1916.74 kt N).

Indonesian Leather Handicraft Trade in the International Market: SWOT analysis approach

The leather craft industry is one of the growing industries in Indonesia and is one of the export commodities of the creative industry. The creative industry is an industry that is one of the mainstays in the country's economy. The abundance of animal skin waste is used as a variety of commodities that have a selling value. The focus of this research is to analyze the potential of international trade in leather craft commodities by using a SWOT analysis approach. The purpose of this study is to map the internal and external factors of the international trade in leather crafts, which can be one of the preliminary research and sources of future research. From the results of the desk study and SWOT analysis, it was concluded that the leather craft creative industry has an opportunity in the international market with a market share of 4.4% and is in the 6th position as a leather craft exporter in 2021. Internal and external factors for this leather craft shows that the advantages and disadvantages of this creative leather craft industry can be combined to improve business strategies and studies in future research.

Application of multi-region input-output analysis to examine biosecurity risks associated with the global shipping network

The vast majority of globally traded cargo is transported via maritime shipping. Whilst in port for loading and unloading, these ships can pick up local marine organisms with internal ballast water or as external biofouling assemblages and subsequently move these to destination far beyond their natural ranges. Over the past decades, this mechanism has led to the establishment of hundreds of non-indigenous species (NIS) around global coastlines. Marine NIS cause significant environmental, economic, cultural and human health impacts. Taking effective steps to preventing their dispersal and establishment is an enduring challenge for governments and conservation agencies around the world. Here we use international commodity trade data and a Nobel-Prize-winning economic analysis technique to develop a novel approach for assessing global marine NIS transfer risks. We show that by tracing the origins and destinations of seaborne trade connections, and the nature of the traded commodities, we can predict the strength of shipping vectors and associated marine biosecurity risks. We demonstrate the utility of our approach via a case-study, where we trace the spread of a hypothetical marine NIS from Japan and show the congruence of our model results with documented invasion histories from that region. Our study demonstrates that biosecurity risk can be assessed using established economic modelling frameworks on the basis of monetary transaction data alone, and without the need for detailed itineraries of the many thousand vessels making up the global commercial fleet. Novel, cost-effective tools are needed to mitigate biosecurity risks associated with maritime trade, and to meet conservation goals while enabling economic prosperity. The modelling framework presented here can be expanded to incorporate future risk factors, life-history traits of particular NIS of concern, and even adapted to simulate the dispersal of terrestrial pests or disease agents.

Международная товарная торговля 2021: феноменальные тренды

The article examines the most significant aspects of the evolutionary dynamics of international commodity exchange over the past five years, with an emphasis on the extraordinary shifts in this area noted by official statistics in 2021. The author analyzes significant changes in modern global trade, reflected in the sinusoidal trajectory of its development against the background of increasing turbulence, uncertainty of prospects for its transformation in the current and upcoming period. In a historically short period, the rise of 2018 was noted with the subsequent decline of 2019 and the crisis shocks of 2020 in direct connection with the widespread dissemination of a new viral infection in the world, the corresponding adoption of protective measures in many countries. Based on the latest official statistical materials and author's calculations, the most relevant trends that have manifested themselves in international commodity trade during the recovery period after the global crisis, that is, in 2021, are shown. Against the background of the general expansion of foreign trade activities of the leading subjects of international commodity exchange, the largest beneficiaries of the past year in the field of exports were identified, the rating of which was headed by the Russian Federation, Belgium, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands and the USA. The analysis undertaken is based on the methodology of comparative statistical research. The current materials, calculated data of the author, actually introduced into the domestic scientific circulation for the first time, are given.

A framework to understand the social impacts of agricultural trade

AbstractWhile international trade in agricultural commodities can spur economic development especially where governance is strong, there are also concerns about the local impacts of commodity production and their distribution. Previous frameworks have primarily focused on trade effects on environmental conditions in production regions, as well as economic growth and food security. Instead, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding the impact of agricultural trade on multidimensional wellbeing and equity. The purpose of the framework is to guide the analysis of the impacts of trade on people, by identifying the core concepts and organising the complexity of the local social impacts of global value chains. The framework is supported by evidence from studies on trade in soy, coffee, cocoa, and palm oil.

Structural evolution of international crop trade networks

Food security is a critical issue closely linked to human being. With the increasing demand for food, international trade has become the main access to supplementing domestic food shortages, which not only alleviates local food shocks, but also exposes economies to global food crises. In this paper, we construct four temporal international crop trade networks (iCTNs) based on trade values of maize, rice, soybean and wheat, and describe the structural evolution of different iCTNs from 1993 to 2018. We find that the size of all the four iCTNs expanded from 1993 to 2018 with more participants and larger trade values. Our results show that the iCTNs not only become tighter according to the increasing in network density and clustering coefficient, but also get more similar. We also find that the iCTNs are not always disassortative, unlike the world cereal trade networks and other international commodity trade networks. The degree assortative coefficients depend on degree directions and crop types. The analysis about assortativity also indicates that economies with high out-degree tend to connect with economies with low in-degree and low out-degree. Additionally, we compare the structure of the four iCTNs to enhance our understanding of the international food trade system. Although the overall evolutionary patterns of different iCTNs are similar, some crops exhibit idiosyncratic trade patterns. It highlights the need to consider different crop networks’ idiosyncratic features while making food policies. Our findings about the dynamics of the iCTNs play an important role in understanding vulnerabilities in the global food system.

Analysis of International Trade Competitiveness of Small Commodities Based on Numerical Simulation Algorithm

In order to improve the analysis effect of the international trade competitiveness of small commodities, this study combines the digital simulation algorithm to analyze the competitiveness of international trade of small commodities and builds a competitiveness analysis model. Furthermore, this study summarizes several main factors that affect energy resolution, presents methods to provide energy resolution, and discusses methods for reducing noise from both analog and digital perspectives. In addition, this study gives the design principle and implementation method of the FIR digital filter, which provides theoretical support for digital signal processing design. Through the data analysis, it can be seen that the analysis model of the international trade competitiveness of small commodities based on the numerical simulation algorithm proposed in this study has a good performance in the analysis of the competitiveness of international trade of small commodities.