International Tourist Arrivals Research Articles

Geopolitical risk and tourism in Turkey

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to show the effect of Turkey's geopolitical risk on the number of international tourist arrivals to the country. When Turkish economy in 2019 is analyzed, it is seen that the share of tourism in national income is 11%. For this reason, national economy is significantly affected by changing of the number of international tourist arrivals. Security problems are an important variable affecting tourist arrivals.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focused on secondary data for the period 2000–2019 for macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, the number of international tourist arrivals was added as a dependent variable, geopolitical risk as an independent variable, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic freedom index as control variables and inflations as an external variable to the model. The residual augmented least squares–the autoregressive distributive lag (RALS-ADL) cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) coefficient estimator were used. It allows for more robust results to be obtained when the residues do not have a normal distribution.FindingsThe RALS-ADL cointegration test result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables at a 1% significance level. Moreover, the DOLS coefficient estimator results indicate that an increase in economic freedom and GDP increase the number of international tourists, whereas an increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index and inflation decreases the number of international tourism arrival. It can be said that tourists consider the security and economic stability of the host country when making tourism decisions.Originality/valueTurkey is one of the most risky developing countries, as well as one of the most popular travel destinations. When the literature is examined, it has been found that studies for Turkey usually determine the relationship between the variables for a short period of time. However, to ensure sustainable growth and environment of confidence, the long-run relationship between variables should be determined so that policymakers can make more impactful decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to make a literature contribution, taking into account the long-term effects. In addition, unlike other studies, this study fills the gap in literature using the RALS-ADL cointegration test, which produces robust estimators.

Towards Efforts to Equalize Income in Africa: The Role of Tourism Development

ABSTRACT A vast literature has investigated the nexus between tourism and income inequality in developing and developed countries. Unfortunately, the literature on the impact of tourism on income inequality in Africa is sparse. Hence, this study examines the influence of tourism on income inequality in 30 African countries over the period 1996–2020. In addition to international tourism arrivals and international tourism receipts which have been widely used by previous studies, this study uses a plethora of tourism indicators, namely business tourism spending, leisure tourism spending, internal travel and tourism consumption, domestic tourism spending, and visitor exports. Moreover, unlike previous studies that have extensively used the Gini index with its inadequacy as a measurement of income inequality; this study uses the Atkinson index and Palma ratio to capture extreme points of the inequality distribution. The empirical evidence is based on the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) estimation technique. The results reveal that tourism contributes to the equalization of income in Africa, contingent on the type of tourism. Policy implications are discussed.

5A accreditation of tourist attractions in China and international tourist arrivals: A system generalised method of moments approach

AbstractWhile international accreditations for tourist attractions have been extensively examined, the impact of nationally developed accreditations has been less systematically investigated. Employing the system generalised method of moments approach, this study investigates the relationship between 5A tourist attractions, based on China's accreditation system, and international tourist arrivals in China, using annual city‐level panel data spanning from 2002 to 2017. The empirical results suggest that the 5A accreditation has a significantly positive effect on international tourists' arrivals. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the 5A accreditation has a substantial impact on the number of international tourists visiting lesser‐known cities. Moreover, the study reveals that international tourists from different countries respond differently to cultural and natural sites. This research provides valuable insights into tourism development strategies for local governments and tourist attractions.

Does trade pattern matter for tourism activities? Evidence from the twenty most visited countries

This study aims to investigate the relationship between international tourism and total trade, including exports and imports, for the twenty most visited countries. In order to accurately assess the relationship, the study employs the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) causality analysis, which accounts for cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity. The empirical results show a unidirectional causality running from total trade, exports, and imports to international tourist arrivals for Germany, India, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Conversely, the causality runs from international tourist arrivals to total trade, exports, and imports for Portugal, Russia, and Spain (except imports). Additionally, a bidirectional causality link between international trade and tourism is found for China, indicating that both tourism and trade mutually reinforce each other. These results highlight the importance of considering the direction of causality in the relationship between tourism and trade, and developing targeted policies that take into account the unique characteristics of each country.

Determinants of International Tourist Arrival in Nigeria

This paper examines the effect of economic and non-economic factors on international tourist arrival in Nigeria. Annual data on tourist arrival from 53 countries and explanatory variables from 2010-2016 were analyzed using the dynamic panel data regression technique. Results suggest that travel cost, internet use, political stability and number of hotel rooms are the main determinants of tourist flows. The income of tourist-origin countries outside Africa negatively and significantly affects tourist arrival. Travel cost has a robust negative effect on tourists from within and outside Africa. The number of hotel rooms and urbanization rate positively influence tourist arrival, indicating the importance of tourism infrastructure. Government and policymakers must provide an enabling business environment, infrastructure, and policies to improve the country's global competitiveness.

Analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the international tourism market

The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a significant blow to the international tourism market, resulting in job losses, reduced incomes, and rising unemployment. Therefore, studying the impact of the pandemic on the development of the international tourism market is relevant and important. This article focuses on analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the international tourism industry in the context of globalization. It highlights key aspects and trends that emerged during the crisis period and influenced the development of the tourism market. The authors specifically concentrate on the pandemic's effects on the global travel network, encompassing changes in demand, restrictions on international travel, and the industry's adaptation to new global challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic has been identified as the cause of the most significant drop in international tourism in human history. It led to a sharp decline in the number of international tourist arrivals, export earnings from tourism, and the economic contribution of tourism to the world economy. The impact of the pandemic on international tourism varied across regions, with the Asia-Pacific region being the most affected, experiencing an 84% decrease in international tourist arrivals. The authors pinpoint the main challenges facing the industry after the pandemic, such as changes in demand, restrictions on international travel, and the reorganization of tourism services and infrastructure. The study also explores possibilities for recovery and adaptation of the tourism industry to new realities post-pandemic, with particular attention given to strategies and innovations that can restore interest in international travel and enhance the competitiveness of countries in the global tourism market. It was found that the recovery of international tourism is progressing slowly. In 2022, international tourist arrivals were still 34% lower than in 2019. The study determined that the development of tourism in the post-pandemic period will be influenced by trend changes such as the prioritization of health and safety, shifts in consumer behavior, a desire for unique emotional experiences, new forms of employment, digital transformation, and the emphasis on ecotourism. Taking these trends into account will contribute to the recovery of the tourism industry and ensure its sustainable development in the future.

La reciente diversificación de los flujos turísticos internacionales hacia España

Rationale International tourism in Spain was highly buoyant in 2023, with record levels of tourist arrivals, hotel overnight stays and average spending per tourist. This article describes the recent characteristics of these tourist flows and the factors that could help explain them. Takeaways •The increase in international tourist arrivals in 2023 and early 2024 relative to the 2016-2019 period was more marked during the autumn and winter months than during the summer months. •In 2023 foreigner hotel overnight stays increased more sharply, compared with the pre-pandemic period, in the northern regions of Spain than in the islands and the south of mainland Spain. •Foreign tourist source countries also appear to have diversified in 2023, with a notable increase in the number of tourists from the Americas and a slight decrease in the number of tourists from countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. •In 2023 as a whole international tourists appear to have chosen higher category hotels to a greater extent, thus boosting average spending per tourist.

Revising the basic principles of integrated marketing communications during a health-related crisis: the case of Croatian tourism and hospitality industry

PurposeAligning corporate communications through different information sources is a great challenge for marketers, especially those operating in the tourism sector, which has been harshly affected by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides a deep analysis of the implementation of seven basic principles of the integrated marketing communications (IMC) paradigm in a crisis situation.Design/methodology/approachIn-depth interviews with tourism and hospitality service providers were conducted in the fourth quarter of 2021 in Croatia, a destination that showed remarkable results in terms of the number of international tourist arrivals during the pandemic.FindingsMost firms successfully transitioned from tactical to strategic IMC implementation. Some problems were reported in the coordination of communication tools and channels. Whereas the use of digital technology was enhanced, database management did not receive sufficient attention. Message clarity represented the greatest challenge, while consumer-centric communication was the most neglected principle. Relationship building was pursued mainly through B2B rather than B2C communication, whereas brand equity development pursued through communication mix mostly focused on increases in awareness, perceived quality and attitudinal loyalty.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is qualitative in nature and provides opinions on IMC adoption from the managerial perspective only.Practical implicationsThis paper provides guidelines for the successful integration of marketing communications (marcom) in an extremely ambiguous and uncertain environment.Originality/valueThe contribution of this work lies in the proposal of a new refined and expanded theoretical framework of IMC principles and numerous marcom strategies for operating during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus providing relevant implications for academia and industry.

Does rising inflation affect the tourism industry? Evidence from Nigeria

ABSTRACT The rising spate of inflation in Nigeria has become worrisome in recent years, considering its implications on the quest for tourism development in the country. This study, therefore, empirically evaluates the effect of inflation on the Nigerian tourism industry. Two tourism indicators (tourism arrivals and tourism receipt) are employed in this study for robustness and quarterly data on relevant variables for the period between 1995Q1 and 2020Q4 were analysed using different econometric approaches. The results of all the estimation methods unanimously revealed a trade-off between inflation and the two tourism indicators, signalling that inflation dissuades international tourist arrival and lower tourism revenue in Nigeria. Hence, the Nigerian monetary authority must ensure price stability by keeping the inflation rate at a desirable level in a bid to foster tourism development in the country.

Do international tourism arrivals, infrastructural development, and trade openness promote economic complexity in Africa?

Recent scholarly articles consistently show that economic complexity promotes economic development. However, upon further examination of the literature, it becomes evident that macroeconomic determinants of economic complexity are not fully investigated, particularly in Africa. This study addressed this gap in the literature by investigating the impact of international tourism arrivals, infrastructural development, and trade openness on economic complexity in Africa. The study utilized the dynamic system GMM and panel Fixed Effects estimators for 34 African economies from 2010 to 2021. The results indicated that international tourism arrival and trade openness have beneficial effects on economic complexity in Africa, while the effects of infrastructural development remained mainly negative. Additionally, we established that human capital development and foreign direct investment inflow are potent channels for promoting economic complexity on the continent. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, January 2024

International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.

Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, enero 2024

International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.

World uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: does good governance make a difference?

ABSTRACT World uncertainty has been rising steadily over the past two decades. While uncertainty affects all sectors negatively, tourism is much more vulnerable to shocks. Therefore, it is critical to explain what kind of environment is necessary for tourism resilience against global shocks. To this end, this paper examines the relationship between world uncertainty, governance, and tourism using the panel data method. According to the findings, while world uncertainty affects tourism negatively, good governance contributes to tourism development. More importantly, good governance moderates the negative effect of world uncertainty on tourism.

Effects of public infrastructural development and industrialization on economic complexity in Africa: Emerging insight from panel data analysis

AbstractThis study examined the effects of public infrastructural development and industrialization on economic complexity in Africa, and how industrialization is moderating the effect of public infrastructural development on economic complexity. The study adopted the pooled ordinary least squares, the dynamic system generalized method of moments and the dynamic bias‐corrected least squares dummy variable estimators with a panel of 34 African economies over the period 2010–2021. The findings revealed that public infrastructural development and industrialization contribute positively and significantly toward enhancing economic complexity in Africa. We also found that industrialization substantially moderates and enhances the influence of public infrastructural development on economic complexity. Furthermore, the results show that trade openness, foreign direct investment inflow, international tourism arrival and institutional quality are potent factors enhancing Africa's economic complexity, while the role of human capital remains muted. These findings suggest that African leaders and policy‐makers can foster economic complexity across the continent by embracing policies that prioritize increased infrastructural development, industrialization, trade openness and foreign direct investment inflow while improving the quality of institutions within the region.

The exchange rate; its volatility and tourism demand

ABSTRACT This study aims at investigating the long-run and short-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Mauritius and some of its key driving factors using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model over the period 1983–2019. Drawing on previous studies and exchange rate, its volatility, tourism infrastructure, relative price, tourists’ income and economic crisis are employed as the explanatory variables to examine this nexus. The results show that income and relative price influence tourist arrivals in both the long-run and short-run. In the long run, tourism infrastructure also proves to be significant. Nevertheless, both exchange rate and its volatility are insignificant.

Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, janvier 2024

International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.

Tourism Sector Development and Economic Growth in OIC Countries

This study aims to examine the impact of the tourism sector on economic growth in 53 OIC member countries. This study uses 4 independent variables namely population, open trade, inflation, and international tourism receipts. The data used is annual panel data from 2010 to 2021, obtained from SESRIC OIC. The analysis method applied in this study is static panel data regression. The results showed that all independent variables, such as population, open trade, inflation, and international tourism receipts, have a significant influence both simultaneously and partially on the economic growth variable (GDP). The tourism sector stimulates other industries through direct, indirect, and induced impacts, contributes to job creation, and causes positive economies of scale. In addition, investments in the tourism sector can positively impact tourism performance indicators such as travel and tourism GDP, international tourism receipts, and international tourist arrivals.

The Tourism-Based Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Evidence From the Turkish Economy

This study aimed to determine the impact of tourism on environmental pollution and test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Turkish economy based on data from 1975–2018 in cubic form by observing the impacts of tourism indicators on the environment. We analyzed the correlations among per-capita ecological footprint, international tourist arrivals, per capita GDP, the social globalization index, and urbanization rate using the ARDL limit test. Based on our research, we have found evidence that during the study period, there is an N-shaped correlation between tourist arrivals and ecological footprint in the Turkish economy. This contradicts the idea of an inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve for both the short- and long-term. Our findings reveal that domestic and national policies to fight against pollution need to be developed rather than wasting time by waiting for the end of the relationship between tourist arrivals and environmental pollution after a certain milestone.

ENERGY TRAILS OF TOURISM: ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MALAYSIA

This study aims to investigate the long-term relationship between Malaysian tourism, energy consumption, and their association with economic growth, and financial development, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Utilizing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this research examines how increased international tourist arrivals, economic growth, and financial development contribute to energy consumption in Malaysia. The study's findings reveal that growing tourism escalates energy demands for transportation, accommodation, and leisure activities. Furthermore, economic expansion drives energy usage through business expansion and increased industrial activities. Financial progress facilitates capital accessibility, leading to investments in energy-intensive sectors. In conclusion, to ensure sustainable future energy demand, this study underscores the importance of eco-friendly tourism practices that stimulate economic growth while minimizing emissions. Sustainable economic and financial strategies are also essential.

The role of digital public services in promoting international tourism: empirical evidence from European regions

PurposeThe present study investigates a nexus between digital public services (DPS) and international tourism empirically.Design/methodology/approachThis article analyzes the nexus of DPS and international tourism by using the international sample of 23 European countries in the span of nearly 10 years from 2011 to 2019. Various econometric techniques, including the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model and the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) model, are employed to confirm the author’s findings. Furthermore, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied to measure the short- and long-run effects of DPS on international tourism developments.FindingsTourism is positively influenced by digitalization, implying that the enhancement of digital public service usage results in the development of the tourism industry. However, when looking at the effect of DPS in the short term, a negative impact can be found on tourism, as the density reported in the previous analysis stated a negative response to the tourism density. This effect spans the course of several facets, such as international tourism arrivals, international tourism receipt, international tourism, receipts (% of total exports) and global tourism expenditure (% of total imports). Although the result is unfavorable in the short term, digitalization promises great prospects for tourism in the long term. Notably, an improvement in economic growth, financial development as well a reduction in the pervasiveness of corruption and an improvement of environmental quality are transmission channels through which DPS have favorable influences on tourism activities.Practical implicationsThe author’s findings are vital for managers and policymakers to establish a comprehensive grasp of digitalization's role in deciding tourist adoption. This is because digitalization has been proven to play a role in determining tourism adoption.Originality/valueThe present study is the first to examine the relationship between DPS and international tourism empirically. The author is also the first to distinguish the effects of digitalization in the short and long run.