International Scientific Assessments Research Articles

Tackling the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies by making peace with nature 50 years after the Stockholm Conference

Today’s increasingly unequal and resource intensive development model degrades and surpasses Earth’s finite capacity to sustain human well-being. Society must restore this capacity and adapt to it without surrendering hard won development gains while also honoring the rightful aspirations of poorer nations and people to enjoy better living standards, according to the UNEP report “Making Peace with Nature”. This article presents findings from the report and reflections on how to take advantage of the 50 years of experience gained since the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. The interconnected environmental emergencies of climate change, loss of biodiversity and pollution need to be addressed together. International scientific assessments are providing the knowledge base for informed evidence-based decision-making, but none of the internationally agreed environmentally targets for climate and biodiversity have been met and the situation is becoming more dire with each passing year. Unless these issues are addressed in the next 5–10 years none of the 2030 sustainable development goals will be achieved. Human knowledge, ingenuity, technology and cooperation need to be mobilized in such an effort. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals provides a blueprint for the transformation. The international environmental governance structure needs to facilitate a system-wide cross-sectoral transformation of humankind's relationship with nature. Transformed economic, financial and productive systems can lead and power the shift to sustainability. Major shifts in investment and regulation are key to just and informed transformations that overcome inertia and opposition from vested interests. Government actions at all levels are needed together with strengthened actions by all actors in society and the next decade is critical.

Biogeographies: Transcending anthropocentrism in the Anthropocene

Biogeographies: Transcending anthropocentrism in the Anthropocene

Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models, which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, making techno-economic parameters available in the future, together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions.

Membership nominations in international scientific assessments

International scientific assessments are transnational knowledge-based expert networks with a mandate to advise policymakers. A well-known example is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which synthesized research on ecosystem services between 2001 and 2005, utilizing the knowledge of 1,360 expert members. Little, however, is known about the membership composition and the driving forces behind membership nominations in the MA and similar organizations. Here we introduce a survey data set on recruitment in the MA and analyse nomination patterns among experts as a complex network. The results indicate that membership recruitment was governed by prior contacts in other transnational elite organizations and a range of other factors related to personal affinity. Network analysis demonstrates how some core individuals were particularly influential in shaping the overall membership composition of the group. These findings add to recently noted concerns about the lack of diversity of views represented in international scientific assessments.

Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

AbstractNumerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar‐level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem‐level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process‐based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream‐pond‐lake‐river‐near shore marine environments).

International Scientific Assessments in Climate, Energy, and the Burden of Disease: The Role of Epidemiology.

International Scientific Assessments in Climate, Energy, and the Burden of Disease: The Role of Epidemiology.

International Science, Domestic Politics: Russian Reception of International Climate-Change Assessments

After Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2004 the domestic debate over climate science cooled and the official discourse on the causes of climate change came somewhat closer to international consensus. This paper seeks to examine how these changes in Russian policy makers' publicly communicated understandings of climate science have been brought about by analyzing the reception of international scientific assessments of climate change in Russian domestic debate. The paper takes as its analytical point of departure the literature on epistemic communities, which suggests that scientists involved in assessment processes may act as agents of diffusion of international expert consensus in their ‘home’ states. The analytical heart of the paper is a case-study analysis based on interviews with Russian scientists who have participated in international climate assessment exercises. Findings indicate that Russian participants in the International Panel on Climate Change and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment did not play a role as ‘informational entrepreneurs’ in deliberative processes leading to key decision-making moments, although they fulfilled other important functions at the national level. The paper concludes by arguing that stronger Russian adherence to international expert consensus was part of a ‘package deal’ of already well-established international-level political and ideational positions that Russia adopted after deciding to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Consequently, conceptualizations of expert knowledge diffusion need to account for a temporal dimension, as the mechanisms of diffusion and the nature of reception of international expert knowledge may vary according to whether the country in question has been at the vanguard of a policy issue (‘policy leader’) or somewhat more of a laggard (‘policy follower’).

Humans Are Driving Extreme Weather; Time to Prepare

An international scientific assessment finds for the first time that human activity has driven increases in some extreme weather and climate events around the world in recent decades.

Invited Editorial: Vulnerable populations in the Arctic

Earth’s average surface temperature is rising unusually fast. This global warming process is deemed by international scientific assessment to be predominantly due to human economic activities. Recent research indicates that, globally, the rate of emission of greenhouse gases is increasing, as is the rise in sea level and the loss of summer Arctic sea ice. Currently, the warming trend is ‘tracking’ at the top of the range of the previously modelled forecasts. Meanwhile, concerns are growing that, as higher temperatures are reached, reinforcing (‘positive’) feedback systems in nature will accelerate the process. (Published: 22 November 2011) Citation: Global Health Action 2011, 4 : 11210 - DOI: 10.3402/gha.v4i0.11210

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change: The Scientists’ Dilemma

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change: The Scientists’ Dilemma

Indigenous Peoples in International Environmental Cooperation: Arctic Management of Hazardous Substances

This article reviews the international legal framework on hazardous substances, with an emphasis on the Arctic and the roles of indigenous peoples. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals pose significant risks to Arctic indigenous populations, mainly through the consumption of traditional foods. Treaties of particular relevance include the Protocols on Heavy Metals and POPs to the Convention on Long‐Range Transboundary Air Pollution (1998) and the Stockholm Convention on POPs (2001). Arctic indigenous groups have exerted considerable influence on hazardous substance management through lobbying of national governments, participation in domestic and international scientific assessments, and direct advocacy in regional and global political fora. Their engagement on environmental issues has also helped to shape circumpolar consciousness and political activism among different indigenous groups. At the same time, there remain important limitations on the independent authority and ability to act of indigenous groups. Challenges for Arctic indigenous groups and States include continuing collaborative abatement work targeting many POPs and heavy metals, as well as addressing linkages between hazardous substances and climate change, which is another issue of great Arctic concern.

Wie stark beeinflussen die Emissionen des Luftverkehrs Ozon und Klima?

Aviation is an integral part of the infrastructure of today's society. It plays a vital role for global commerce and private travel. Aircraft cause emissions of greenhouse gases and species which impact the ozone concentration in the atmosphere at the regional and global scale. It is essential to know the size of these effects. Therefore, the emissions of global air traffic and its impact on climate and the composition of the atmosphere have been investigated in several national and international research programmes with large contributions by German institutes. This paper summarises the knowledge obtained. The results are now considered in an international scientific assessment "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" presently organised by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The global emissions of aircraft cause a small increase of ozone in the upper troposphere as well as in the lower stratosphere. The related greenhouse effect in terms of additional radiative forcing is small, in the order of 4 % of all greenhouse gases and particles induced by anthropogenic activities since the last century. But the climate effect caused by aviation emissions that have an impact on the atmospheric ozone concentration is about three times bigger than the one caused by the aviation emissions of carbon dioxides alone. The share of aviation in anthropogenic radiative forcing is growing. In view of the growing demand for air transport, there is a clear need for a more efficient aviation technology causing less pollution. It seems that such technology will not be developed under the present market conditions alone.

Providing Advice to Policymakers: International Scientific and Technical Assessments of Global Environmental Issues and Challenges for the Scientific Community

Beginning with this issue, Oceanography will publish a regular column on international policy issues of interest to the oceanographic community. Both science and environmental policy issues will be addressed. The first article in the series concerns the international scientific assessment process. The article provides a concise overview of ongoing assessment activities related to biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change, describes the assessment process, and explains the crucial role of such assessments in international and domestic policy formulation, The column also encourages top-notch oceanographers to contribute to these assessment activities, which-a l though extremely demanding in terms of time and e f for t -a re essential in order to build consensus on and find solutions to global environmental problems. Topics under considerat ion for future columns include the key conclusions of the Biodiversity Assessment regarding ocean ecosystems, issues surrounding ocean-related geoengineer ing (iron fert i l ization, ocean dumping, carbon dioxide disposal , etc.), the relative costs and benefits of coordinated versus individual research projects, the status of women in oceanography, and the concept of sustainable development as applied to the wor ld ' s oceans. Should you have an interest in any of these topics or suggestions for other appropriate issues, please contact me at the e-mail address l isted below. In order to foster broader international participation in The Oceanography Society, submissions from non-U.S, experts are particularly welcome. Responses to items published in this column in the form of letters to the editor are welcome.

Experimental evidence and clinical studies as basis for nomenclature in frambesia tropica (yaws).

SUCCINCT clarity in nosological nomenclature and standardization of definitions are imperative in all phases of vital statistics and clinical description. Without them, no intelligent comparison of morphological phenomena and epidemiological data is judiciously possible. The mass campaigns against yaws initiated by the United Nations World Health Organization on an international basis in Haiti, Indonesia, Malaya, the Philippine Islands, and Thailand again call for accurate terminology consistent with ascertained experimental facts and descriptive dermatology. This approach seems to be the only rationale for both sensible and practical nomenclature on which each observer can agree, although he may not see the additional problems in exactly the same way as other experts. The importance of succinct nomenclature as a basis for cooperative international scientific assessments and the magnitude of these yaws control projects are evident from the following figures: In Indonesia alone about 1,500,000 persons in an estimated total population of nearly