International Real Estate Securities Research Articles

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mis-Priced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mis-Priced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

The Impacts of Financial Freedom on International Real Estate Securities

The aim of the paper is to study how trade freedom and financial freedom affect the excess return of real estate security, and we apply annual data for 1,108 publicly traded real estate companies of 24 countries from 2006 to 2013 to examine it. The main findings are as follows : First, for whole sample, the coefficients of the index of trade freedom, the index of financial freedom, are significantly negative, which means that higher freedom of trade and financial will increase efficiency of real estate market but the excess return of real estate will decrease. Second, comparing the effect of the indexes to affect excess return of real estate securities in three different regions, the indexes of financial freedom and Trade freedom are vital factors, but all of four indexes of freedom are important in Europe and other area. Third, the coefficients of indexes of monetary freedom and indexes of trade freedom are negative in both of high and non-high income groups. Finally, for the group of non-high income level, the coefficient of index of investment freedom is negative and the coefficient of index of financial freedom is positive, which are different with the results of the whole sample.

Price Signaling and Return Chasing: International Evidence from Maturing REIT Markets

AbstractThis article examines the liquidity of international real estate securities across 10 markets over the period 1990–2015. We apply and compare results for four different measures of liquidity, and find that while liquidity has increased consistently, wide variations still exist across markets, with the United States and Japan in the lead. Our results also suggest that the introduction of local REIT regimes did not have any pervasive effects on stock liquidity. When we study the relationship between liquidity and returns, we document new and consistent evidence for international return chasing behavior, whose pattern is a function of local market efficiency, listed real estate market maturity and stock ownership dispersion. The introduction of REIT regimes seems to weaken the importance of extra performance over and above general equity returns as investors tend to allocate funds to real estate securities within real estate rather than equity portfolios.

International Real Estate Review

This study examines the tail dependence of returns in international public real estate markets. By using the daily returns of real estate securities in seven cities/countries from 2000 to 2018, we analyze how the interdependence of international securitized real estate markets has changed since the Global Financial Crisis. We divide our sampling period into the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods, and estimate both upper and lower tail dependence coefficients for each sub- period. Our empirical results confirm that most city/country pairs have changed from tail-independent to tail-dependent since 2007. Strong tail dependence persists during the crisis and post-crisis periods. The findings from the post-crisis sub-sample provide new evidence on increased tail dependence in the global real estate market in recent years. We conclude that international real estate securities still offer diversification benefits nowadays but to a lesser extent than in the pre-crisis period. Investing in the global real estate securities markets is beneficial for cross-region, mixed-asset portfolios.

Increased Tail Dependence in Global Public Real Estate Markets

This study examines the tail dependence of returns in international public real estate markets. By using daily returns of real estate securities in seven countries from 2000 to 2014, we analyze how the interdependence of international securitized real estate markets has changed since the Global Financial Crisis. We divide our sampling period into pre-, during, and post-crisis periods, and estimate both upper and lower tail dependence coefficients for each sub-period. Our empirical results confirm that most country pairs have changed from tail-independent to tail-dependent since 2007. Strong tail dependence persists throughout during crisis and post-crisis periods. The findings from the post-crisis sub-sample provide new evidences on increased tail dependence in global real estate market in recent years. We conclude that international real estate securities still offer diversification benefits nowadays but to a lesser extent than in the pre-crisis period. Investing in global real estate securities markets is beneficial for cross-region, mixed-asset portfolios.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

We examine the canonical influence of global market, currency and inflation risks on the returns from international real estate securities. In addition, we study how mispricing of credit in the local banking systems is related to the returns from these securities. We analyze a global sample of real estate securities over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypotheses. We find support for the anticipated relationships between macroeconomic risk factors and the returns from international real estate securities. Our evidence also supports the expected link between local credit market conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.

Correlation structure and dynamics of international real estate securities markets: A network perspective

In this paper, we investigate the correlation structure and dynamics of international real estate securities markets by using daily returns of 20 national markets during the period 2006–2012 from a network perspective. We construct the minimum spanning tree (MST), the hierarchical tree (HT), and the planar maximally filtered graph (PMFG) obtained from the correlation matrix computed by the daily returns during the investigated period, and analyze the corresponding clustering structure, hierarchical structure, and community structure. We also build the time-varying MST and PMFG networks by a rolling window to examine the dynamics of correlation structure. The empirical results show that (1) the distribution of correlation coefficients is asymmetric, fat-tailed, and non-Gaussian. (2) The distributions of the influence-strength of the MST and PMFG networks obey a power-law. (3) Two clusters (i.e., the European and Asia-Pacific clusters) are found in the MST network, three hierarchical clusters (i.e., two like in the MST and the North American cluster) in the HT, and three communities in the PMFG network, which shows that national markets are linked together according to their geographical distributions. (4) The descriptive statistics of correlation coefficients and distances of the MSTs and PMFGs are time-varying; especially during periods of crisis they have a large fluctuation. (5) A huge number of linkages between national markets survive from one time to the next, and the long-term stability of the correlation structure in international real estate securities markets descends as time goes on. Our obtained results are new insights in international real estate securities markets and have wide applications for investment portfolio and risk management.

Volatility interdependence in European real estate securities markets

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the interdependence of daily conditional volatility in seven FTSE‐NAREIT‐EPRA European developed real estate securities markets – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland, from January 1990 to December 2011.Design/methodology/approachThis paper employs the multivariate GARCH and the generalized VAR volatility spillover index methodologies.FindingsThe author finds that each of the seven European developed real estate securities markets is relatively endogenous and interacts well with the other markets. In particular, the French real estate securities market has the most dominant volatility impact on other markets over the full sample period. The introduction and implementation of the euro is associated with a moderate increase of the total volatility spillovers around the three‐year (January 1999‐January 2002) period among the sample markets. Moreover, these markets have experienced an increase in their volatility correlation, as well as becoming more open around the GFC period. Around this crisis period, the German real estate securities market emerges as the “volatility leader” in transmitting the conditional volatilities to other markets in the European region.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to examine whether each of the sample European real estate securities markets has influenced or has been more influenced by others from the conditional volatility spillover perspective in the context of economic globalization, monetary integration and financial crisis. Since international investors incorporate into their portfolio selections not only the return correlation structure but also the market volatility interaction, the results of this study can shed light on the extent to which investors can benefit from international real estate securities diversification in the European developed countries.

Calendar Effects and Real Estate Securities

This paper examines twenty-seven international real estate securities indices from twenty countries and regions for calendar effects. Two methodologies are employed. The first is the standard approach which detects statistically significant anomalies via linear regression of returns. The second, new to the real estate securities literature, tests for economically significant effects through two tests specifically designed to compare multiple forecasts to a benchmark, White’s (Econometrica, 1097–1126, 2000) Reality Check and Hansen’s (J Bus Econ Stat 23(4):365–380, 2005) Superior Predictive Ability test. The standard approach tells us that while some effects have disappeared over time, statistically significant calendar anomalies persist. However, the tests of White and Hansen strongly suggest that they are not economically significant and thus should not be the basis of an investor’s trading strategy nor be considered as a challenge to market efficiency, as has been claimed previously.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

Macroeconomic Risk Factors in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

Comovement of international real estate securities returns: a wavelet analysis

The comovement of equity markets is of crucial importance for portfolio diversification and risk management. In this study, we utilise the wavelet analysis to examine the comovement among international securitised real estate markets as well as the cross‐market comovement between the stock and securitised real estate markets. As a novel approach, wavelet analysis has not yet been applied to the real estate field. Its advantage lies in that it allows us to assess the comovement in the time and frequency domains simultaneously. Using it, we carry out the study for six countries, namely US, UK, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both the time‐ and frequency‐varying features of the comovement in designing international portfolios.

Convergence Dynamics Across International Securitized Real Estate Markets

With a sample of 14 developed real estate securities markets during the study period 1993-2008, the main objective of this paper is to investigate market integration using the concepts of risk-return convergence and beta convergence. We find that international developed real estate securities markets have been moving toward greater integration in terms of increasing correlation and faster speed of convergence in returns and volatilities. However, the finding of an insignificant risk-return convergence trend also implies that the risk and return characteristics of the real estate securities markets have not become less different from each other over the study period, supporting the view that the idiosyncratic “real estate factor” and “country factor” of individual markets might have become more important over time.

Do Asian real estate companies add value to investment portfolio?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the role of Asian real estate companies with regard to their “value‐added” performance and portfolio diversification benefits in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios, as well as in international real estate securities portfolios over 1996‐2005.Design/methodology/approachFirst the risk‐return performance for all 13 Asian as well as the US and UK real estate securities markets is compared. For each country, next the correlation profiles between real estate, common stock, bonds and cash are assessed. The value‐add benefits of Asian real estate securities in an unconstrained and constrained mixed asset portfolio are then assessed in relation to portfolio return, risk and terminal wealth. Finally, the paper explores whether there are benefits derived from international diversification with a universe of Asian real estate securities from the perspectives of the US and UK investors.FindingsIt was found that, whilst there is little evidence of diversification benefits and superior risk‐adjusted performance of Asian real estate companies in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios, diversification into Asian real estate stocks can provide positive portfolio implications for international investors. Thus investing in Asian real estate securities portfolios rather than investing in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios may be seen to be the more effective diversification strategy over this period.Originality/valueThe study has provided some interesting and important insights into the dynamics and performance of Asian real estate securities. With an increased emphasis on international property investment and as the regional upturn becomes more evident, Asian real estate companies potentially provide an important real estate investment opportunity for international property fund mangers.

Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets

We study international correlation and volatility dynamics of publicly traded real estate securities using monthly returns from 1984 and 2006. We also examine, for comparison, the correlations among the corresponding stock markets. A multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model captures the time-varying correlation within the full period. We confirm lower correlations between all real estate securities market returns than those between the stock market returns themselves. Some significant variations and structural changes in the correlation structure happened within the sample period. We detect a strong and positive connection between real estate securities market correlations and their conditional volatilities. We also find the international correlation structure of real estate securities and the broader stock market are linked to each other. Our results have economic motivations regarding the potential integration of international real estate securities markets and the possibility of including information on changing correlations and volatilities to design more optimal portfolios for international real estate securities.

Factors Influencing the Performance of Hong Kong Real Estate Companies

Executive Summary. Hong Kong real estate companies make a significant contribution to the Hong Kong stock market and general economy. Using a variance decomposition procedure, the proportion of Hong Kong real estate company volatility that is attributable to stock, bond, and real estate factors over 1984-2004 is assessed. Over this period, real estate accounted for 7% of real estate company volatility. Importantly, this level has increased from only 2% over the 1984-1997 period to 11% over the 1997-2004 period, with the contribution by stocks decreasing from 78% to 58%. Overall, this reflects an increased contribution by real estate to Hong Kong real estate company volatility in recent years since the Asian Financial Crisis and the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. These results have significant implications for international real estate securities funds and highlight the need for establishing an active real estate investment trust market in Hong Kong.

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

We use constrained cross‐sectional regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on international real estate security returns. Besides a common factor, pure country, property type, size and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper provides for each security the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to be volatile and to have a substantial effect on returns over the period February 1990–April 2003. Country factors are the dominant factors, and size is shown to have a negative impact on returns. Statistical factors derived by means of cluster analysis explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. The implication for portfolio managers is that failing to recognize the importance of the various factors leads to the portfolio being exposed to systematic risk.

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

In this paper, we use constrained cross-section regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on real estate security returns in 21 countries. A better knowledge of the risk factors driving real estate returns is crucial, whether a pure real estate portfolio is constructed or whether real estate is considered as an alternative asset class within the traditional stock portfolio. Besides a common factor, 'pure' country, size, and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper is a unique indicator developed by Salomon Smith Barney (SSB). It provides for each stock the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than using a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to have a substantial and increasing effect on returns over the analyzed period February 1990-April 2002. Country factors are important determinants of real estate security returns also. Statistical analysis of the residuals indicates that additional 'hidden' factors most likely exist. These statistical factors are shown to explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. Nevertheless, as is the case for traditional stock portfolios, stock picking keeps all its importance for real estate stocks as well.

Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities

This article is the winner of the International Real Estate Investment/Portfolio Management manuscript prize (sponsored by LaSalle Investment Management) presented at the American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting.This article tests for the presence of both price continuation and price reversals in international real estate securities. The results reveal evidence of performance persistence in international markets over short and medium term horizons, however the evidence on price reversals is less compelling. The empirical analysis tests for mean reversion using Variance Ratio and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. In neither case is there consistent evidence of mean reversion in international real estate securities. The portfolio switching tests do reveal some evidence of performance reversals. However, while under-performing markets do outperform over longer horizons, they do not do so at statistically significant levels.

Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

This study performs tests of the random walk hypothesis for international commercial real estate markets utilizing stock market indices of real estate share prices for three geographical regions: Europe, Asia and North America. The augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests and Cochrane variance ratio test find that each of these markets (as well as associated broader stock markets) exhibits random walk behavior. Moreover, a non-parametric runs test provides support for weak-form market efficiency in the real estate markets. In addition, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis reveals that all three markets appear co-integrated and share a common long-run stochastic trend. Results of co-integration analyses and vector error correction models suggest that diversification benefits through international real estate securities can only be achieved in the short run.

The Long-Term Advantages to Incorporating Indirect Securities in Direct Real Estate Portfolios

Executive Summary. This study examines the longterm diversification opportunities potentially available to real estate managers from using firstly real estate investment trusts and secondly international real estate securities as a diversification tool. The results show that when optimal direct real estate portfolios are used as the base, while indirect securities do gain allocations in the extended optimal portfolios, the improvement in performance is not statistically significant. However, when the national NCREIF Index is used, thereby assuming a diversified direct market portfolio, significant results are obtained.