International Prices Research Articles

Effects of Land and Labor Costs Growth on Agricultural Product Prices and Farmers’ Income

Widespread attention has been paid to the continuous rounds of rising agricultural product prices in China since 2003. During this period, rising prices were affected by input costs and international market prices; therefore, the degree of benefits obtained by farmers from the rise in agricultural product prices has been questioned. However, limited studies have examined the effect and relationship between rising agricultural product prices and farmers’ income. The purpose of the study was to provide empirical evidence on how the rise in agricultural product prices affects farmers’ income and to understand the role of land and labor costs in this context using provincial data from 2003 to 2020. The findings reveal that there is a threshold effect on the impact of the rise in agricultural product prices on farmers’ income. A moderate rise in agricultural product prices can increase farmers’ income, but excessive price increases have an insignificant effect. The causes behind the price rise significantly influence farmers’ income. An increase attributed to higher land and labor costs can improve farmers’ income, whereas a rise driven by international market prices or the cost of agricultural production inputs is unlikely to benefit farmers.

Gold Price Inflation and Its Implications for Financial Markets: Strategies for Mitigation

Abstract: Gold prices are among the most important indicators in the global financial market. The international gold price has continued to rise in recent years, repeatedly setting new records, accompanied by a boom in gold consumption and investment. The rapid rise in gold prices is due to a combination of factors. Supply and demand, economic conditions, and geopolitical events can lead to price fluctuations. Among them, economic conditions depend on monetary policy, inflation expectations, and market volatility, which may affect the trend of gold prices. The rise in gold prices has exacerbated market volatility and put higher demands on risk management for financial institutions. At the same time, the rise in gold prices has also affected the entire financial industry and changed traditional asset allocation strategies. This article examines the influence of increasing gold prices on the financial market and proposes potential preventive measures or solutions through a survey of literatures, theoretical analysis and logical reasoning. At the same time, this can help financial traders plan their funds reasonably, reduce the impact of inflation and currency devaluation, and better cope with changes in international trade and exchange rates, thus allowing the financial market to operate better.

Asymmetric connectedness among BSE SENSEX, INR–USD exchange rate, gold price and crude oil price: fresh evidence from nonlinear ARDL

PurposeThis paper investigates the asymmetric connectedness among the Indian stock market, crude oil price, gold price and the USD–INR exchange rate.Design/methodology/approachWe construct a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model that contains the four aforementioned variables. We further used the pairwise Granger causality test to identify the direction of causality.FindingsThe results verify an asymmetrical long-run co-movement between the Indian stock market index, exchange rate, international crude oil prices and gold prices. In the long run, the performance of the Indian stock market is mainly affected by both positive as well as negative shocks in the INR–USD exchange rate, positive shocks in gold prices and positive shocks in crude oil prices. Further, a feedback mechanism is observed between positive shocks in the INR–USD exchange rate and Indian stock market performance.Originality/valueThe research paper revisited the linkage among the variables using a novel methodology proposed by Shin et al. (2014).

Study on the Optimization Strategy of Chinese Film Ticket Price Pricing

Film, as an important cultural industry and entertainment mode, has developed over the years and formed a relatively complete industrial chain. However, in the long-term development process, movie ticket pricing has always been a hot issue that has attracted much attention. In recent years, China's film market has shown a trend of rapid development, and the box office has repeatedly reached a new high, but the level of movie ticket prices has also been rising, which has triggered widespread social concern and discussion.Research and optimization of movie ticket pricing strategy is of great significance to improve the competitiveness of the movie market and promote the sustainable development of the movie industry.This paper first reviews the current research status of the predecessors, summarizes the relevant theoretical basis needed for the study, analyzes the existing problems in movie ticket pricing, conducts an analysis of the change in domestic ticket prices and compares it with international prices, and finally concludes with an optimal strategy.

Research on Gold Price Prediction Based on LSTM Modeling

Gold plays a pivotal role in asset allocation, and the construction of gold price prediction models represents a complex yet rewarding task within the field of finance. The problem of international gold price is addressed in this paper forecasting by proposing a standard Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model and introducing bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) networks and multivariate analysis to compare the forecasting accuracy of the relevant models. This comparison is based on the daily gold price of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) for 2013-2022. This methodology takes into account various factors that influence the gold market and incorporates them as input sources into the Multi-factor LSTM model, thereby enhancing the interpretability of the LSTM model. Correlation analysis and the Granger test are employed to analyze these influencing factors. However, the results of this study suggest that while the Multi-factor LSTM model may be more accurate in predicting outliers, it tends to increase the number of small errors. On the other hand, the inclusion of Bi-LSTM networks can improve the overall accuracy of gold price prediction.

Distributed Secondary Control of DC Microgrid with Power Management Based on Time-of-Use Pricing and Internal Price Rate

This paper presents a novel approach to manage distributed DC microgrids (DCMG) by integrating a time-of-use (ToU) electricity pricing scheme and an internal price rate calculation mechanism. The proposed power-management system is designed to effectively handle uncertainties such as utility grid (UG) availability, fluctuating electricity prices, battery state of charge (SOC) levels, and frequent plug-ins and plug-outs of electric vehicles (EVs). Uncertainties in DCMG systems often lead to inefficiencies, power imbalances, and inexact voltage regulation issues within DCMGs. In addition, to maintain the power balance and constant voltage regulation under various operational states, the proposed scheme also incorporates secondary control into the DCMG power-management system. Unlike the existing approaches that often fail to adapt dynamically to changing conditions, the proposed method is the first approach to consider the concept of internal price rate in designing the DCMG power management. To address this challenge, this approach proposes a more resilient power-management strategy to enhance the efficiency and adaptability of DCMG systems. Extensive simulations and experimental validations demonstrate the practicality and adaptability of the proposed control strategy under diverse test conditions, including operation transitions between grid-connected mode (GCM) and islanded mode (IM), low battery SOC condition, operation transition from the current control mode (CCM) to distributed secondary control mode (DSCM), and EV plug-in scenarios. The test results confirm that the proposed method enhances the reliability, efficiency, and economic viability of DCMG systems, making it a promising solution for future smart grid and renewable energy integrations.

Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland

Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.

Forecasting the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in major importing countries usingautoregressive integrated moving average modeling

The study analyzes the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in international markets using the ARIMA model to forecast export trends. The objective is to identify factors influencing the sector's profitability and sustainability. Time series of export volumes and prices were evaluated, revealing that the ARIMA model allows for accurate predictions of future trends. The results suggest that the Peruvian coffee sector faces challenges related to international price fluctuations and global competition. Emphasis is placed on the importance of efficiency in production and export processes to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in the global market.

Study on Indonesia Crude Palm Oil Exports to Six Main Destination Countries 2000-2021

This study aims to assess the impact and factors influencing Indonesian CPO exports to six main destination countries from 2000 to 2021. The variables analyzed include real GDP per capita in the destination countries, inflation rates in these countries, and international CPO prices over the same period. The analysis employs a Random Effect Model (REM) processed using Eviews-10. The urgency of this study is to evaluate the circumstances of the EU's deforestation law by examining the contribution of Indonesian CPO exports. The results indicate that real GDP per capita, inflation, and international CPO prices significantly affect the export value of CPO to these six countries during 2000-2021.

Catalyzing green transformation: mitigating oil price impact on CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia via renewable energy transition

AbstractExploring the relationship between international oil prices, income, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Saudi Arabia, this study examines if renewable energy consumption plays a lowering tool in international oil prices' impact on CO2 emissions, employing conventional econometric methods and the functional coefficient approach. The study reveals that the interaction between renewable energy consumption and international oil prices has a negative and statistically significant impact on CO2 emissions. This emphasizes the potential for Saudi Arabia to reduce carbon emissions by prioritizing renewable energy projects. In addition, a positive and statistically significant relationship between income and CO2 emissions is found, emphasizing the need to decouple economic growth from emissions growth. Furthermore, an interesting decoupling effect between oil price elasticity of CO2 emissions and per capita GDP is noted from the early 2000s–2015. This indicates that economic growth driven by rising oil prices can be managed to mitigate environmental impact, showcasing Saudi Arabia's commitment to sustainable development. Policy recommendations involve intensifying efforts to promote renewable energy implementation, lowering fossil fuel dependence in power generation, and incentivizing emissions reduction for a more sustainable energy future.

Analisis Determinan Volume Impor Gandum di Indonesia

Wheat is one of the food commodities consumed by the Indonesian people. The need for wheat in Indonesia from year to year tends to increase but is almost entirely met through imports and makes Indonesia one of the world's largest wheat importers. Dependence on food commodities from the import side has a huge risk for national food security because in addition to the increasingly limited foreign exchange owned, there is also uncertainty in terms of quantity and price. The purpose of this study is to find out the factors that affect wheat imports in Indonesia. The variables in this study are foreign exchange reserves, international wheat prices, domestic rice prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. This study uses secondary data with a quantitative approach using 34 data. Data analysis techniques using descriptive statistical analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study show 1) Foreign Exchange Reserves, International Wheat Prices, Domestic Rice Prices, and the US Dollar Exchange Rate simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 2) Foreign Exchange Reserves partially have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 3) International Wheat Prices partially have a negative and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 4) Domestic Rice Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate have no significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia.

INFERENCE IN MILDLY EXPLOSIVE AUTOREGRESSIONS UNDER UNCONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY

Mildly explosive autoregressions have been extensively employed in recent theoretical and applied econometric work to model the phenomenon of asset market bubbles. An important issue in this context concerns the construction of confidence intervals for the autoregressive parameter that represents the degree of explosiveness. Existing studies rely on intervals that are justified only under conditional homoskedasticity/heteroskedasticity. This paper studies the problem of constructing asymptotically valid confidence intervals in a mildly explosive autoregression where the innovations are allowed to be unconditionally heteroskedastic. The assumed variance process is general and can accommodate both deterministic and stochastic volatility specifications commonly adopted in the literature. Within this framework, we show that the standard heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent estimate of the long-run variance converges in distribution to a nonstandard random variable that depends on nuisance parameters. Notwithstanding this result, the corresponding t-statistic is shown to still possess a standard normal limit distribution. To improve the quality of inference in small samples, we propose a dependent wild bootstrap-t procedure and establish its asymptotic validity under relatively weak conditions. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our recommended approach performs favorably in finite samples relative to existing methods across a wide range of volatility specifications. Applications to international stock price indices and U.S. house prices illustrate the relevance of the advocated method in practice.

Comercio justo, eje central del desarrollo en productores locales y exportadores de cacao Theobroma cacao L. en el cantón Quevedo

The study was conducted in Quevedo Canton, Los Ríos Province, Ecuador. The objective was to analyze fair trade, a central axis of development for local cocoa producers and exporters (Theobroma cacao L.). Descriptive research methods were applied, along with analytical and deductive approaches. Surveys using a Likert scale were employed. The survey’s reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, yielding a value of 0.81 for 14 elements. The variables considered were education level, quality of life, fair trade, and economic development. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS (Version 22.0). The results demonstrate a positive impact on international, national, and local market prices, contributing to the sustainable development of cocoa producers. Exploring fair trade practices in production reveals significant interest and potential when adopting measures that promote equity and sustainability within the cocoa value chain. Education emerges as a key driver of development through training programs, enabling producers to fully engage in productive, economic, and commercial activities. Ultimately, fair trade practices are closely tied to pricing and productive activities in cocoa cultivation.

Electricity Industry Strategies in Ecuador and Peru: Their Impacts on Energy Efficiency and Prices

Through an empirical analysis of the impact of determinants on energy efficiency and electricity prices using monthly data, we compare the outcomes of energy strategies in Ecuador and Peru from 2014 to 2023. OLS regression models with Newey-West matrices are applied in two contexts: Energy efficiency and energy prices. Energy efficiency is explained through variables such as the proportion of renewable energies, national income, and the international oil price. The results indicate that in Ecuador, the proportion of renewable energies is positively related to energy efficiency, whereas in Peru, energy efficiency mainly depends on the trend component capturing changes in productivity and the decline in fuel prices. Furthermore, electricity prices are sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices, especially in Peru, due to its dependence on thermoelectric generation. The energy strategies of both countries, including the integration of renewables and the management of fossil fuel costs, play crucial roles in determining energy efficiency and prices. This study provides a comprehensive view of how various economic and structural factors influence the performance of the energy sector in both nations, highlighting the differences in their approaches and outcomes.

Asymmetric dynamic linkage between consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and international energy prices: Evidence from time-frequency wavelet and nonlinear analysis.

This study investigates the relationship between consumer sentiment (CONS), inflation expectations (INEX) and international energy prices, drawing on principles from behavioral. We focus on Brent crude oil price and Henry Hub natural gas prices as key indicators of energy market dynamics. Based on the monthly data from January 2003 to March 2023, three wavelet methods are applied to examine the time-frequency linkage, while the nonlinear distributed lag model (NARDL) is used to verify the asymmetric impact of two factors on energy prices. The results highlight a substantial connection between consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and international energy prices, with the former in the short term and the latter in the medium to long term. Especially, these correlations are particularly pronounced during the financial crisis and global health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 epidemic. Furthermore, we detect short-term asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations on Brent crude oil price, with the negative shocks dominating. The positive effects of these factors on oil prices contribute to observed long-term asymmetry. In contrast, inflation expectations have short-term and long-run asymmetric effects on natural gas price, and both are dominated by reverse shocks, while the impact of consumer sentiment on natural gas prices appears to be less asymmetric. This study could enrich current theories on the interaction between the international energy market and serve as a supplement to current literature.

The Effects of Various Internal and External Factors on the Movement of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study analyzed several factors that affect the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. The use of the inflation-currency rate, the availability of money, and the BI rate were all internal factors considered in this study. Meanwhile, the external factors used in this study were international gold and oil prices. The Engle-Granger Error Correction Model was used to analyze time series data in this study. The research used the monthly period started from May 2013 until January 2022. The long-term results of the research variables that could influence the exchange rate, total money supply, world oil prices, and world gold prices were all dependent on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the short-term movement of the ISSI exchange rates were inflation, and the BI rate variables.

What are the costs of rigidity? A general equilibrium study of the fuel market in Argentina

The policy that is most widely applied to the biofuel market in the world is the mandatory blend. This policy aims to induce the use of biofuels by setting a minimum level of biofuel per unit of blended fuel. This paper studies the costs and benefits of such a policy. To do so, a Recursive Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), calibrated with a new own-developed energy-oriented Social Accounting Matrix of Argentina for 2018, has been developed. Such a model is extended by explicitly embedding a constrained fuel blending model into the CGE setup. This research addresses the following questions: What are the costs and benefits of a mandatory blend compared to a full flexibility scenario? Is it better to induce the use of biofuels through a tax on fossil fuels or a blending constraint? What is the impact of international price shocks when considering different blending regimes? This paper finds that the mandatory policy has a negative impact on the economic activity, poverty, income distribution, and energy affordability, but a positive one on emissions. When analysing the convenience of a special tax on fossil fuels instead of a mandatory regime, this paper finds that the cost and benefits of each policy are distributed differently over time. The special tax on fossil fuels performs better in the short run while the mandatory blend does so in the long run. Finally, this paper finds that flexibility in the fuel market improves the country's performance when there are shocks on international prices.

Changes in the Supply of Public Intermediate Goods, Fixed Wage, and the Relative Price in the Harris-Todaro Model

Since the Harris-Todaro model was proposed in 1970, it has played a crucial role in analyzing various environmental and trade issues in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of the amount of public intermediate goods provided by the government, the increase in the fixed wage rate in the urban sector, and the changes in the relative international prices of agricultural and manufacturing goods on labor employment, unemployment, and the economic welfare in the context of a small open economy. It also proposes relevant policies to reduce the unemployment rate while improving national welfare.

Coffee in Indian Economy: Performance and Prospects

Coffee is a universal hot beverage, and its international trade volumes point to significant approval in favour of coffee consumption. For many nations in the tropics, coffee is a major source of foreign exchange. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global and domestic coffee industry, with a particular focus on India's role based on the secondary data taken from different sources like ITC trade map, Coffee Board of India and international coffee organization statistics, etc. In 2022, global coffee production reached 10.89 million tons, with Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia leading the output. Despite being the eighth-largest coffee producer, India's export ranking is relatively low due to significant domestic consumption. This study employs standard econometric tools, such as compound annual growth rate, Cuddy Della Index, Markov chain analysis, etc. The Johansen co-integration test revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship among selected Arabica and Robusta coffee markets. Furthermore, the pair-wise Granger causality test identified unidirectional causality in price transmission among certain Arabica markets, while bidirectional causality was observed among Robusta markets. The paper also highlights the declining coffee yield in India due to biotic and abiotic stressors, despite an increase in production and cultivation area. The study concludes with a discussion on the dynamics of Indian coffee exports, where high domestic demand and fluctuating international prices contribute to the sector's variability. This research provides valuable insights into the performance and prospects of the coffee industry within the Indian economy, offering a basis for future policy and market interventions.

Finding opportunity in economic power dispatch: Saving fuels without impacting retail electricity prices in fuel-producing countries

In many oil- and natural gas-producing countries, fuels are allocated to the electricity sector at administratively set prices below international market prices for domestic policy reasons. This article shows that dispatching power units based on the opportunity costs of domestically used fuels can yield significant efficiencies, while end-user electricity prices can continue to reflect administratively set fuel prices. In addition, opportunity cost dispatch can bring environmental benefits when it results in switching the priority of oil and gas units in the merit order and facilitating investments in renewable energy. Therefore, this approach can support long-term net-zero emission targets. It can also resolve cross-border electricity trading issues faced by fuel-rich countries, which are reluctant to base their electricity exports on domestic fuel prices.