Changes In International Prices Research Articles

Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices?

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long‐term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.

The Effects of Oil Price on Energy Production and the Ecuadorian Economy

Through an empirical analysis of the impact of variations in the international price of oil on the economic production of different strategic sectors and on energy production from various sources in Ecuador, the study seeks to show evidence on the economic effects of the price of oil. in a Latin American economy strongly linked to oil production. For this, relevant data were collected on production in different economic sectors, on the type of ownership in oil production and on energy production in various energy sources in Ecuador and statistical analyzes were carried out to evaluate the relationships between these and the international oil price. The results indicate that the effect of the oil price varies between the economic sectors of Ecuador. Some sectors, such as financial services and construction, show positive responses, while others, such as agriculture and fishing, appear less affected. The oil and mining sector in Ecuador is strongly linked to variations in the price of oil. The positive and significant response of the Oil and Mines GDP underlines the sensitivity of this sector to changes in international prices. Furthermore, energy production in Ecuador exhibits heterogeneous responses to variations in the price of oil. Forms of energy such as wind, solar, and thermal energy show positive and significant responses, while hydropower presents a negative response in some periods. Positive responses in forms of energy such as wind, solar, and thermal may indicate that the increase in the price of oil positively influences investment decisions in these energy sources. The study provides a significant contribution to the field of energy economics in oil-exporting countries and, particularly, in developing countries, as well as highlights the importance of energy diversification for these types of economies.

The local health impacts of natural resource booms.

This paper uses novel micro-data on natural resources and administrative health data in Brazil to study how economic booms in minerals affect health at birth. By implementing a reduced-form estimation of shift-share research designs, the identification strategy relies on the exogeneity of global commodity prices to municipality-specific health outcomes. I find that, following changes in international prices, municipalities with historically more endowments have a higher number of premature births and births with low Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, Respiration scores. The impacts are primarily driven by metallic minerals. Instead, industrial minerals do not appear to have any effect on birth outcomes. Even though booms in metallic minerals generate benefits through resource windfalls-by increasing wealth and generating economic opportunities-the investigation of mechanisms reveals that they also result in costs-due to pollution-which seem to prevail. Hence, some metallic minerals remain a curse more than a blessing.

Large-scale multinational shocks and international trade: a non-zero-sum game

International trade has improved living standards but has also become a major channel for spreading shocks on a global scale. The increasing relevance of intersectoral linkages and trade in intermediates renewed interest in input–output techniques. This paper enriches the literature on empirical trade models with an input–output/econometric approach including substitution effects and price spillovers. Our model shows that (a) trade elasticities and bilateral shares are not constant in time and differ across sectors and countries; (b) international price changes alter the relative competitiveness between competitors; (c) final demand components such as consumption and investment react to changes in international prices. Large multi-country shocks produce feedback effects in national economies as they adapt by import substitution across exporters, by changing the import content of domestic production and by adjusting final demand. These feedbacks affect the global demand producing an asymmetric non-zero-sum game.

Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration

Coffee price is an important indicator that stimulates farmers to advance their welfare. Unfortunately, coffee crisis makes the farm gate price uncertain and volatile. This study aims to explore the Indonesian coffee export situation related to price risks and coffee market integration between Indonesian coffee price and international price. The time series data were the coffee price from 1987 to 2014 in Indonesian domestic market and in global trade in London. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach was applied to test market integration based on Ravallion’s equation. Based on the analysis, the results of the study revealed that Indonesian coffee export performed progressively in the last decade. Export destination countries for Indonesian coffee also developed broadly. There was market integration on the Indonesian coffee market and global price in the London terminal. Although not fully, the shock in the international price was somehow felt in the Indonesian coffee market. There were sufficient shreds of evidence to conclude that the Indonesian coffee market is well integrated with the international market in the long run. The changing coffee price in Indonesia and the International market adjusted in the next three years. In short term, Indonesian coffee price was 76% influenced by international price changes, but not vice versa.JEL Classification D49; Q02; Q17

Transmission of global wheat prices to domestic markets in Kenya: A cointegration approach

This paper evaluates the extent to which changes in international wheat prices are transmitted to domestic markets in Kenya using an error correction model (ECM) that employs monthly producer price data for the period 2002 to 2020. Domestic wheat markets in Kenya were found to be strongly integrated while, international wheat markets were cointegrated with domestic prices at the port of Mombasa. The long-run elasticity of price transmission was estimated at 0.91, which implies that 91% of the changes in international wheat prices are transmitted to domestic markets in Kenya. The speed of adjustment was estimated at -0.069, which implies that it takes about 14 months for the changes in the international wheat price to be fully transmitted to the Kenyan domestic market. Wheat farmers in Kenya seem to be insulated from international price shocks given the long period of time it takes for domestic markets to adjust to international price changes. Even though not explicitly analysed, government border policies, market and infrastructure impediments seem to be underlying causes of the incomplete price pass-through, along with the low speeds of adjustments. Our analysis suggests that the main constraint to a complete pass-through is the existence of price-setting power at the producer level of the wheat market in Kenya. Investments in infrastructure development and the promotion of liberal trade policies can improve the transmission of international wheat price signals to domestic markets in Kenya.

Effects of COVID-19 and Other Shocks on Papua New Guinea's Food Economy: A Multi-Market Simulation Analysis

Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the COVID-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

To pass (or not to pass) through international fuel price changes to domestic fuel prices in developing countries: What are the drivers?

This paper attempts to shed light on the drivers causing international fuel prices to be passed through to domestic retail fuel prices. While many developing countries limit the international fuel price pass through to domestic fuel prices, others do not. In the former, large fuel subsidies can emerge, thereby threatening fiscal sustainability, worsening income distribution and setting back efforts to fight climate change. Against this backdrop, we examine the factors that determine whether governments allow international fuel price changes to be passed through to domestic prices in developing countries using a dataset spanning 109 developing countries from 2000 to 2014. The paper finds that the pass-through is higher when changes in international prices are moderate and less volatile. In addition, the flexibility of the pricing mechanism allows for higher pass-through while exchange rate depreciation and lower retail fuel prices in neighboring countries inhibit it. The econometric results also underscore the fact that countries with inflation tend to experience lower pass-through, whereas those with high public debt exhibit larger pass-through. Finally, no evidence is found that political variables or environmental policies matter with regard to fuel price dynamics in the short-term. These findings, which are consistent across fuel products (gasoline, diesel and kerosene), allow us to draw important policy lessons for fuel subsidy reforms.

To Pass (or Not to Pass) Through International Fuel Price Changes to Domestic Fuel Prices in Developing Countries

While many developing countries limit the international fuel price pass through to domestic fuel prices, others do not. Against this backdrop, we examine the factors that determine whether governments allow international fuel price changes to be passed through to domestic prices in developing countries using a dataset spanning 109 developing countries from 2000 to 2014. The paper finds that the pass-through is higher when changes in international prices are moderate and less volatile. In addition, the flexibility of the pricing mechanism allows for higher pass-through while exchange rate depreciation and lower retail fuel prices in neighboring countries inhibit it. The econometric results also underscore the fact that countries with inflation tend to experience lower pass-through, whereas those with high public debt exhibit larger pass-through. Finally, no evidence is found that political variables or environmental policies matter with regard to fuel price dynamics in the short-term. These findings, which are consistent across fuel products (gasoline, diesel and kerosene), allow us to draw important policy lessons for fuel subsidy reforms.

Improving strategic management through risk analysis: small palm (Elaeis guineensis) oil industrializers, Central America

Introduction. Palm cultivation allows oil to be obtained for human and industrial consumption. Some of its development has been achieved through associations of agricultural producers, who have had access to financing to build industrial plants for oil extraction and refinement, which is of great importance to the economy developing countries. Objective. To demonstrate how strategic and risk management influence the profitability and value of the small palm oil industrializer business. Materials and methods. Financial, technical, market, and production indicators were used in a price forecast model. The Monte Carlo simulation method was performed and a time series model was fitted to forecast the international price of palm oil. Subsequently, a univariate structural econometric model was adjusted to forecast revenue based on international price and other variables. Finally, a parameterized cash flow was developed that incorporated the results of the previous models to estimate the value of the business. Results. The international oil price forecast showed high volatility that directly affected the organization’s revenue forecasts and conveyed its effect to cash flows. The value of the business and equity was negative, and in the face of debt restructuring scenarios and the elimination of unproductive assets, they improved considerably. Conclusion. Low-diversified palm oil production companies had a high exposure to changes in international prices which, together with high levels of debt for fixed asset investments with long recovery periods, affect their cash flow, the value of the company, and its assets.

Análisis económico de los “Precios de Transferencia” y sus efectos en los ingresos tributarios en Nicaragua, 2014-2018

En el presente ensayo analiza la legislación nicaragüense vigente en materia de PT, en donde, se evidencia, que los métodos retomados, son los métodos tradicionales dictados por la OCDE, y estos aún no se están implementando, es por ello, que la evaluación de métodos alternativos costo eficiente, que se ajustan a la realidad económica de los países sub desarrollados como lo es el caso de Nicaragua. Además, se plasma una explicación accesible del marco conceptual, económico y jurídico de los PT en Nicaragua, y se efectúa un análisis estadístico de información y datos de comercio exterior, correspondientes a las exportaciones e importaciones de sectores económicos claves en el país, determinando de esta manera los impactos que generan en el PIBC y la Recaudación Total las alteraciones a los precios internacionales.

To Pass (or Not to Pass) Through International Fuel Price Changes to Domestic Fuel Prices in Developing Countries: What are the Drivers?

While many developing countries limit the international fuel price pass through to domestic fuel prices, others do not. Against this backdrop, we examine the factors that determine whether governments allow international fuel price changes to be passed through to domestic prices in developing countries using a dataset spanning 109 developing countries from 2000 to 2014. The paper finds that the pass-through is higher when changes in international prices are moderate and less volatile. In addition, the flexibility of the pricing mechanism allows for higher pass-through while exchange rate depreciation and lower retail fuel prices in neighboring countries inhibit it. The econometric results also underscore the fact that countries with inflation tend to experience lower pass-through, whereas those with high public debt exhibit larger pass-through. Finally, no evidence is found that political variables or environmental policies matter with regard to fuel price dynamics in the short-term. These findings, which are consistent across fuel products (gasoline, diesel and kerosene), allow us to draw important policy lessons for fuel subsidy reforms.

Rice Prices Shocks Transmission from International to Domestic Markets: An Evidence from Bamako and Kayes Rice Markets in Mali

This study assessed the transmission of international price shocks to domestic prices in Bamako and Kayes markets. Threshold Autoregressive Model developed by Balke and Fomby (1997) was used in the study. The empirical analysis used monthly price data of Bamako and Kayes markets over the period January 2006 to September 2016. The results of descriptive statistics showed that during the period 2006-2016, the average price of imported rice were 313 CFA francs in Bamako and 297 CFA francs in Kayes, respectively. The average price for local rice were 328 CFA francs in Bamako and 387 CFA francs in Kayes. The empirical results showed that local rice price in Kayes as well as imported rice price in Bamako responded asymmetrically to international price changes. The increase of international price was more rapidly transmissible to domestic prices than its decrease. Better regulation of rice markets and more road infrastructure would limit the power of commercial intermediaries and contribute to a better functioning of market structures.

Income Distribution, Factor Endowments, and Trade Revisited: The Role of Non-Tradable Goods

AbstractWe return to the traditional theme of the distributive consequences of international prices and trade policies, focusing on economies relatively abundant in natural resources with a large non-tradable-goods sector. Changes in international prices create an aggregate demand effect which impacts on the earnings of factors employed in the non-traded goods sector. We show that, in economies highly specialized in the production of tradable goods and where the import-competing sector is small, under standard assumptions, terms-of- trade shifts have a neutral effect on factor prices and thus lack distributive effects, quite differently from Stolper-Samuelson scenarios. In economies with sizable import-competing sectors and two “urban” productive factors (e.g. skilled and unskilled labor), changes in the terms of trade do induce distributional tensions through two channels: (i) the exogenous shift in the relative price of tradable goods, and (ii) the endogenous displacement of the demand for non-tradables. We illustrate how, according to the structure of the economy, different patterns of income distribution may arise. Next, we analyze the introduction of trade duties. Trade taxes change relative prices between tradable goods as a terms-of-trade shock does, but also introduce an additional demand mechanism, that depends on the use the government gives to the revenues. If the tax revenues are transferred back to the private sector, the resulting reallocation of spending favors those factors used intensively in the production of non-tradables.

Analysis of economic trends in overseas markets for Indian tea and coffee

Since world market economies are dynamic, the responsiveness of export quantities to changes in international prices is of direct relevance in international economics. India has 12% share of world tea exports and is the seventh largest coffee producer in the world (2013–2014). This study analyses the exports and price growth rates, elasticity, instability and major global markets for Indian tea and coffee. The study was based on 24 years agricultural time-series data from 1990–1991 to 2012–2013. The study found that elasticity for coffee and tea was 61.4 and 13.5%, respectively. The destinations which account for the major share of exports for Indian tea are developed countries including Australia (18.7%), Russia (17.3%), and the United States (15.9%) and for coffee are Italy (28.7%), Germany (13.8%), and Belgium (7.6%). Based on an analysis of individual country elasticity and growth rates, India has comparative advantage to export to the Middle East, Europe, the United States, and Australia.

Assessment of Changes in International Prices for Crude Oil Amid the Global Instability of its Production and Consumption

Objectives: The article substantiates the need to assess changes in international prices for crude oil amid the global instability of its production and consumption. Methods/Statistical Analysis: The authors determined the classification of the factors influencing the pricing in the world oil market. The basic methods of research are the method of multivariate correlation and regression analysis, by means of which the main pricing factors were identified; methods of historical and empirical analysis that enabled the authors to determine the regularities of drawing up forecast scenarios of oil prices. Findings: The study presents a new consistent methodological approach to the substantiation of assessment of the impact of major macroeconomic factors on the change in the level of oil prices in the context of instable situation in the global oil market. In contrast to the modern concepts of evaluation of factors affecting the world oil market, the novelty of this approach consists in determining the classification of the main macroeconomic and geopolitical factors in each historical period of the oil market development. The advantage of this approach is the use of the method of multivariate correlation and regression analysis. Analyzing the history of the formation of oil prices in the world market influencing the economy of states, it is possible to develop in the future the most realistic forecast scenarios for the oil price level change and to evaluate its impact on the further development of the world economy and the geopolitics of the leading states. Application/Improvements: The presented scientific approach identifies the main factors of the global oil market development, taking into account changes in the energy balance of hydrocarbons production amid global instability regarding their production and consumption.

Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world

In the context of a changing climate, there is an urgent need to better understand the impact that weather disturbances have on food affordability in the developing world. While the influence of international markets on local food markets has received considerable attention, in contrast, the potential influence of weather disturbances on local food markets has received much less attention. In fact, local weather disturbances may have an adverse impact on the poorest households in developing countries. Here we quantify the short-run impact of both weather disturbances as well as international price changes on monthly food prices across 554 local commodity markets in 51 countries during the period between 2008 and 2012. We find that almost 20% of local market prices were affected by domestic weather disturbances in the short run, 9% by international price changes and 4% by both domestic weather disturbances and international price changes during the period. An improved understanding of the magnitude and relative importance of weather disturbances and international price changes on rural economies will inform public policies that are designed to mitigate the impact of adverse weather disturbances.

Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans

This article estimates a worldwide aggregate supply response for key agricultural commodities— wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—by employing a newly‐developed multi‐country, crop‐calendar‐specific, seasonally disaggregated model with price changes and price volatility applied accordingly. The findings reveal that, although higher output prices serve as an incentive to improve global crop supply as expected, output price volatility acts as a disincentive. Depending on the crop, the results show that own‐price supply elasticities range from about 0.05 to 0.40. Output price volatility, however, has negative correlations with crop supply, implying that farmers shift land, other inputs, and yield‐improving investments to crops with less volatile prices. Simulating the impact of price dynamics since 2006, we find that price risk has reduced the production response of wheat in particular—and to a lesser extent, rice—thus dampening price incentive effects. The simulation analysis shows that the increase in own‐crop price volatility from 2006–2010 dampened yield by about 1–2% for the crops under consideration.

Assessing the Impacts of Agricultural Policy and Structural Reforms on Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil

Producers and households in developing countries are affected by the prices of products involved in international transactions. The impacts of agricultural policy and structural reforms leading to changes in international prices of goods and services are expected to be differentiated across households and producers, depending on how they are involved in the circular flow of goods and services within the country of residence. As such, it might be expected that these reforms will affect income distribution and poverty levels within those countries.The objective of this study is to produce an estimate of the impacts of agricultural policy and structural reforms on income distribution and poverty in Brazil, considering not only the first round (direct) effects but also their spillovers (indirect effects) across the circular flow of income. The introduction of the second and higher round effects is important, for the initial effects could either be mitigated or empowered by the indirect effects.

International Price Changes of Agricultural Commodities and Their Impacts on Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil

The objective of the paper is to provide an estimative of the impacts that changes in international prices of agricultural commodities will have on income distribution and poverty in Brazil. To do so, a Social Accounting Matrix is constructed and applied, using a Leontief-Miyazawa type model framework. The SAM is defined for 40 products, being 17 raw agricultural products, 15 agricultural processed products, 3 industrial agricultural inputs, 2 other industrial products, trade, transport, and services. Households are allocated to 10 groups, being 6 agricultural (4 types of family farmers, commercial farmers, and agricultural labor), and 4 urban (income quartiles). Demand elasticities (price and income) for the products defined in the SAM are considered, as well as limitations on the supply of agricultural inputs. The knowledge of the possible impacts of changes in international commodity prices on income distribution and poverty is very important for policy design within developing countries. Given the estimated impacts on different groups of producers, different sorts of cushioning policies can be designed.