International Portfolio Investment Research Articles

Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Portfolio Investments in Turkish Economy

This study aims to analyze the impact of geopolitical risks faced by the Turkish economy on international portfolio investments. Since it is thought that these risks may have asymmetric effects, the study utilizes the NARDL methodology. Based on this situation, the BDS linearity test was employed to assess the variables, revealing the presence of a non-linear structure in the time series. As a result of the NARDL analysis, it is observed that the long-run and short-run effects of geopolitical risks differ, and the asymmetric relationship, which is moderate in the short-run, turns into a symmetric structure in the long-run. In this framework, it is concluded that international portfolio investors increase their investments to take advantage of return opportunities in the short run in the face of increased geopolitical risk, but prefer safe economies in the long run. The Turkish economy, in order to reassure investors, is of great importance to increase transparency in the fields of economy, justice, and governance, to ensure and strengthen the independence of institutions, and especially to put economic policies on a rational basis.

Chinese monetary policy spillovers on its international portfolio investment flows

This paper examines Chinese monetary policy spillovers on its international portfolio investment flows with a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. The paper extracts a FPI factor from certain time series to measure monthly foreign portfolio investment flows (FPI). Four Chinese monetary policies are considered: central-bank target policy rate; required reserve ratio; M2; banks' loans. The robust and significant results show that interest rates and banks' loans have significant impact on Chinese international portfolio investment flows, while changes in reserve requirements are not effective. It reveals the increasingly important effects of Chinese monetary policies on its cross-border portfolio investment flows following decades' capital account openness and the reform of interest rate liberalization in China, which indicates that Chinese monetary policy is approaching to a market-based framework.

Behavioural finance perspective in theory of international portfolio investment

Behavioural theory has become a driving force for relaunching and rethinking the conceptual foundations of conventional economic theory, giving impetus to the study of behavioural economics, including behavioural finance and the theory of international portfolio investment. The theory of international portfolio investment justifies the benefits of international diversification of investment portfolios and the possibility of generating returns in different markets. However, international investment practice and empirical research show that investor behaviour is often non-rational, and investment decisions are influenced by psychology, emotions, and cognitive biases. The purpose of this paper is to compare traditional and behavioural finance and study the implications of behavioural finance in modern portfolio theory. It has been established that classical finance is based on neoclassical economics and assumes that people are rational, risk-averse, have complete information, and are focused on utility maximisation. In contrast, behavioural finance assumes that people can be rational, but in most cases, their behaviour is better explained by emotions and psychology. Investors do not always make decisions that are consistent with utility maximisation. The paper emphasizes that modern portfolio theory is based on the efficient market hypothesis, which behavioural finance rejects, as it assumes that investors' behaviour may be non-rational and influenced by psychological and behavioural factors that affect decision-making. It was revealed that today, there is no single theory of behavioural finance, but there are several theoretical concepts that describe investor behaviour from the perspective of behavioural theory. Among the most influential are the behavioural capital asset pricing model, behavioural portfolio theory, adaptive markets hypothesis, behaviourally modified asset allocation, and goal-based investing. International investment decisions and the formation of international investment portfolios are influenced by investors' behavioural biases, among which the most researched and influential are home bias, which refers to investors' preference for domestic investments, and cultural differences, which can influence risk perception and investment preferences.

Is a correlation-based investment strategy beneficial for long-term international portfolio investors?

Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors, although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear. This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America from 2000 to 2016. Our strategy is as follows. We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016. This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations. In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions, long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method. Consistent across all portfolios and regions, our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains. Our empirical method, which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions, provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices, U.S. stock market fluctuations, and investor sentiments on regional portfolios, as well as to hedge against these fluctuations. Finally, we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.

A Study on How International Portfolio Investment Flows Affect Macrofinancial Risks and Control Channels

In the current complex global economic background, international capital flows are becoming more frequent. Based on this, this paper takes international portfolio investment as the research object and empirically tests the causal relationship and control channel between international portfolio flows and macrofinancial risk in emerging economies. It selects the panel data of emerging economies from 2001 to 2020, constructs macrofinancial risk indicators by using contingent claim analysis and the entropy-based TOPSIS method, tests the effect of international portfolio flows on macrofinancial risk by using the panel distributed lag regression model, and explores the management effect of foreign exchange reserves and capital controls on the risk effect by using the panel threshold regression model. The results show that long-term international portfolio flows help reduce macrofinancial risk, but short-term capital flows appear to increase macrofinancial risk. In addition, both foreign exchange reserves and capital controls effectively reduce the risk effect of portfolio flows. However, when considering different types of portfolios, we find that foreign exchange reserves do not effectively control the risk effect of equity securities flows, while stricter capital controls do. This paper argues that emerging economies should be more open to international long-term portfolio flows, focus on the monitoring of short-term portfolio capital flows and equity securities flows, and coordinate the use of foreign exchange reserves and capital control instruments to manage the risk effects of portfolio flows. This paper verifies the risk effect of international portfolio investment flows through empirical analysis, tests the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves and capital controls, and provides a decision-making reference for emerging economies to timely identify, effectively manage, and prevent the risk effect of international capital flows.

Financial Globalization, Local Debt Markets and New State Financial Activism in Middle‐income Countries

ABSTRACTSince the global financial crisis of 2008–09, there has been a renewed interest in the role of the state in processes of financial development and globalization. This article explores new forms of state economic activity via the development of debt capital markets in Southeast Asia, specifically Indonesia and Malaysia. It suggests that the expanding profile of various state‐controlled entities in local capital markets constitutes a new form of state financial activism responsive to (upper) middle‐class consumption preferences such as modern infrastructure, urban housing and low‐risk investments. This activism highlights state agency and complicates the propositions of the emergent literature on state capitalism and financial de‐risking that focuses on increasingly close alignment of the interests of states and international portfolio investors. Accordingly, the authors caution against unilinear conceptions of the state in which activism is primarily geared towards accommodating the preferences of international investors. The article posits that states are actively trying to establish new market logics for the benefit of their domestic middle classes via the development of domestic capital markets, and that the emergent role of middle‐income country (upper) middle classes as financial consumers reconfigures processes of state‐managed financialization.

International capital flows

The flows of capital are the deposits of the enterprises or private individuals in the country: they may be defined as the flow of finance meant for the enterprises or private persons in another country for the purposes such as the investments or commercial activity. Nowadays, in the conditions, in which the free trade zones are formed, the international flows of capital are of great importance for those with large savings and commercial enterprise for more effective use of its assets. It is widely believed that the foreign investments are profitable for the economic growth of the countries. The increase in the international investments and capital flows in any country contributes to the correction of the balance of payments and the external trade deficit due to the growth of the overall productivity of a country. The quality of legal defense provided for the foreign investors, and the level of efficiency of law enforcement are the key political issues for the promotion of higher levels of portfolio investments of foreign capital. The measures for the safety of investors, particularly those who related to the foreign investments are the essential crossed aspect specifying the international portfolio investments in the shares. The flows of capital impact the economy of the countries on macro and micro levels. Though the macroeconomic indexes reflect the general parameters, their monitoring and evaluation are extremely significant in economic context. As the investments are estimated in the view of future expectations, it is known that when speaking on the investment prospects of a country, not only social-economic conditions, but political stability are essential as well.

Factors impacting the price of the gold: an empirical study of EGARCH model

Purpose- The gold as a fundamental asset has been displaying a high and sharp price volatility in international financial markets. The price dynamics of gold are believed to be influenced by non-linear dependencies with stock market indices, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Therefore, it is rational to examine the factors contributing to the non linear inferences. As a financial asset for the portfolio investment and hedging, gold prices display multilateral and dynamic data patterns this study aims to focus the analysis of price volatility which will contribute to the volatility structure, persistence, and correlated behaviors of gold prices. Methodology- To display and analyze the persistence level of volatility in the financial markets, a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification is employed. GARCH class models are further applied to determine the relevance of the leverage effect of market news, the progress of spillover pattern, and the effects on the risk-premium. Findings- Volatility in gold price has become an important feature of the financial markets in terms of volatility trading in adjusting the international portfolio investments. The correlated structure of the financial markets and the contagion effects of the news have displayed the asymmetric and complex but time-fragmented portfolio returns in terms of short and long term volatility formation and forecasting. Conclusion- Since gold’s safe haven status have played a major stake in the determination of the gold price, it is undeniable that the speculators’ rising power, the artificial intelligence utilisation in robo-trading, global and regional geo-political tensions, the recent developments in the risk sentiment in investment portfolios have an increasing amount of influence on gold prices. Keywords: Gold returns, US Dollar Index, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, volatility persistence. JEL Codes: C58, G12, C22, G17

Foreign exchange market return spillovers and connectedness among African countries

This paper examines the foreign exchange return shock spillovers and network connectedness among African countries during crisis periods using (Diebold & Yilmaz, 2012; 2014; 2016) which is based on generalized VAR and network theory between June 2004 and June 2021. Overall, the study found a low system-wide spillover connectedness among African foreign exchange markets. However, the total systemic spillover index increased during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis followed by global financial crisis, indicating evidence of contagion effects. This offers good diversification opportunities in the African currency market during crisis periods. The study also found no significant evidence of spillover effects among African currencies. Nonetheless, the network connectedness analysis found a positive significant pairwise return spillovers from the South African rand, Moroccan dirham and the CFA francs to Botswana pula, and from Moroccan dirham to CFA francs and South African rand. Furthermore, the study found South African rand, Moroccan dirham and CFA francs as the most significant net-transmitter of return shocks to other currencies whiles the Kenyan shilling and Botswana pula are the net-receivers of return shocks from other currencies. These results have implications for African central banks interventions in stabilizing their exchange rates to facilitate intra and inter-African trade and for international portfolio investors in managing their foreign exchange risk exposures.

The impact of international portfolio investment on economic growth: the case of selected African states

The main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of foreign portfolio investment on economic growth in Africa. The motivation to explore the effects of portfolio investment and growth stemmed from the fact that Africa has recorded large capital inflows since the global financial crisis. These capital flows can have positive or negative consequences. The effects of foreign portfolio investment on the African economy is an area of interest because very little has been done on the subject area. The study used quarterly panel from 1995 to 2014. The study used only five African countries; South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria. These countries were chosen because they are in the top five of the African financial markets index. A GMM model was adopted to test the effects of portfolio flows on economic growth in the selected African states. Results showed that there is a weak relationship between portfolio investment and economic growth and that there is a positive relationship between INT and GDP. Results also show a positive relationship between EXCH and GDP in the long run. A depreciation in the rand exchange rate is seen to be depressing economic growth. The study recommended that the Central Banks in African countries develop better strategies to enhance capital flows' benefits. This can be done by establishing and improving financial institutions which are still developing.

Applicability Analysis of CAPM Model in the Context of Epidemic

Under the impact of the epidemic, the economy of all countries has been affected to varying degrees, and the most obvious common one is that the global inflation rate has risen, thus resulting in the phenomenon of purchasing power deviation. The focus of this paper is that the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) lacks the prediction of this part of the risk, so it can not realize the original intention of THE CAPM Model, completely to wash away this part of the risk. As well as the domestic and foreign research review in recent years, the literature analysis, the conclusion is drawn, in view of the traditional CAPM in the international portfolio investment deficiency, as well as the applicability in the real financial market, this paper suggests that under the purchasing power parity offset, the use of high-order CAPM through the international portfolio investment is a more stable choice.

International portfolio investment: does the uncertainty matter?

PurposeThis study investigates the effect of global and domestic uncertainty on the dynamics of portfolio investment in 21 economies (mostly advanced and larger emerging economies) from 2001–2016.Design/methodology/approachSpecifically, the evolution of the net portfolio equity investment inflows (FPI net inflows) and the evolution of net portfolio investment (FPI net) are investigated in a context in which the degree and the volatility of domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and world uncertainty index (WUI) varied. The authors provide an empirical analysis through the sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models for unbalanced panel data.FindingsAn increase in the degree and volatility of domestic EPU has a significant negative influence on FPI net inflows, while an increase in WUI has a significant positive one. Notably, a simultaneous increase in the domestic EPU and WUI enhances the net inflows of FPI, whereas a simultaneous increase in the volatility of these indicators reduces the net inflows of FPI. An increase in the degree and volatility of both domestic EPU and WUI have a significant positive effect on the net portfolio investment, implying that a significant net portfolio investment is going out of the country.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this study encourage international investors to consider uncertainty indicators (and, more specifically, their variations) in their portfolio strategy to optimize their position on the international markets. The findings of this study invite policy-makers from large countries to reduce the perceived domestic uncertainty since this parameter can influence international investors' sensitivity and willingness to diversify their position out of the country.Originality/valueThe authors' approach focuses on the variations of uncertainty (existing literature mainly works with the indicators). While the results confirm the role played by large markets in international portfolio investment management, it nuances the changes in the portfolio management behaviors toward other markets when facing a changing uncertainty.

Foreign direct investment inflow: The drivers and motivations in MENA Region

Purpose ― Reasons why Multinational Enterprise (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment (hereafter referred to as FDI) abroad have been of great interest to policy markets, academia and international portfolio investors. This examines FDI inflow motives to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach ― This research paper applies both the static and dynamic panel methodologies such as SYS-GMM, fixed effects, and pooled OLS estimators to investigate the motivational factors of MNEs FDI inflows to MENA countries. Findings ― Although specificity applies to countries, estimated results suggest that MNEs in the MENA region are predominantly interested in serving both home and host markets. Other motives such as efficiency-seeking FDI vary across countries, indicating that FDI motives are not homogeneous among region members. This paper provides useful insight for both firms and host countries in the region. Originality/value ― This research paper investigates the factors that motivate MNEs to consider FDI decisions in MENA countries. Rather than investigate the individual countries within the region as done in existing literature, this research paper simultaneously examines MNEs' investment motivations in the MENA region. The findings are significant, plausible and in line with the economic development of most countries in the region.

The Decline of EMU Core Countries’ Portfolio Equity Investments in the Euro Area: The Role of Stock Return Correlations

This paper investigates the effect of time-varying stock market correlations on the abrupt and persistent decrease of the reciprocal foreign investments by Euro area member countries after 2007. A strong stock market correlation reduces the diversification opportunities and it may therefore have affected the reciprocal investment by EMU countries. The 2007 represents both the outbreak of the global financial crisis and the beginning of the enlargement process. The two events have had a very different impact on the stock returns’ correlation among EMU members. While the enlargement to new countries has reduced the average returns’ correlation within the Euro area as a whole, the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis have led to an increase in stock returns’ correlation among old member states. We find that, among old EMU countries, core countries have been particularly affected by stock returns’ correlation. They reduced their equity investments both in foreign EMU core and in foreign EMU periphery economies after the crisis, with a particularly pronounced contraction witnessed by those country-pairs that displayed highly correlated asset returns. These results highlight the importance of the diversification motive for international portfolio investments and complement the institution-based explanation of the decline of the Euro area investments.

СТАЛЕ МІЖНАРОДНЕ ПОРТФЕЛЬНЕ ІНВЕСТУВАННЯ: ПОНЯТТЯ ТА ОСОБЛИВОСТІ

The article is devoted to analyzing the concept of sustainable international portfolio investment and the main features and differences from traditional international portfolio investment. It was found that there are practically no definitions of sustainable international portfolio investment in academic literature of domestic and foreign authors. The notions of the categories “sustainable investment” and “international portfolio investments” were considered and analyzed discretely. The sustainable international portfolio investment is treated as the process of investing funds by investment market actors through purchasing foreign securities of issuers (companies or countries) conducting business activities in compliance with environmental, social, and governance factors or green bonds to obtain investment benefits with mandatory consideration of (ESG) criteria. Comparative characterization of traditional and sustainable international portfolio investment was carried out regarding for such features as the essence, time period, and ultimate goal. Specific features of sustainable international portfolio investment were identified: investing in foreign financial instruments (mainly shares and bonds) taking into account social, environmental and governance criteria of companies or countries; investment objects do not include such traditional investment instruments as derivative financial instruments due to the fact that they have a speculative focus; the primary goal is to maximize profits and minimize risks, with mandatory consideration of ESG criteria; consideration of specific types of risk (ecological, social and governance).

What do foreign flows tell us about stock market movements in the presence of permanent and transitory shocks?

PurposeThere is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market.FindingsWhen the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period.Research limitations/implicationsEvidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors.Practical implicationsThere is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows.Originality/valueUnlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

Examining Volatility Spillover Between Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets of Countries such as BRICS Countries

The objective of this article is to examine the volatility spillover effect between the foreign exchange market and the stock market of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries along with Japan as the developed country in the region, affecting the BRICS countries. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) (1,1) method is used to study the volatility between the stock market and the foreign exchange market in selected countries, and asymmetric model, that is, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity—EGARCH (1,1) is also used to investigate the presence of leverage effects in both stock market and foreign exchange market in selected countries. GARCH findings suggest a two-way volatility spillover between the stock market and foreign exchange markets for India, China and South Africa. In BRICS countries, volatility spillover from the currency market to the stock market is seen as more evident and robust as compared to spillover from the stock market to the currency market. A positive asymmetry in spillover is also observed from the foreign exchange market to the stock market. The findings of the study may provide valuable information to investors for decision-making in international portfolio investment and also for economic policymakers for their financial stability perspective.

International Portfolio Investments with Trade Networks

What determines the composition of international portfolio investments remains an open question in international finance. In this paper, I propose a theory of international portfolio choice where trade networks play a key role. I solve in closed form for the optimal equity and bond portfolio investments in a multi-country model with arbitrary global input - output linkages and taste differences. I show that a measure of international demand exposure, called the “International Domar Weights” (IDWs), is key in determining international equity portfolios. The IDWs extend the closed-economy “Domar weights” to the international setting and capture countries' interdependence through both direct and indirect trade linkages. Using data from the World Input - Output Database (WIOD) and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), I apply the framework to a network of 43 major developed and emerging economies and obtain four main results. First, the theoretical network portfolio is a significant predictor and explains almost half of the variation in international bilateral portfolio investments. The significance of the network portfolio is robust to controlling for gravity factors (market capitalization, distance, EU membership, etc.). Second, including the network-based portfolio in a gravity model for assets resolves the puzzle of why distance matters for asset trade at all. Third, indirect trade linkages matter for portfolio determination, highlighting the need to explicitly account for trade in intermediate inputs. Finally, the model predicts both the levels and the changes in equity home bias that have occurred since 2000.

Relationship Between International Portfolio Investments and The Country Governance Quality

Relationship Between International Portfolio Investments and The Country Governance Quality

Foreign equity portfolio flow and corruption: A cross‐country evidence

AbstractThis study examines the impact of foreign equity portfolio investment on corruption. Employing a large dataset of 44 countries from 2001 to 2015 and three different measures of corruption, our results show that foreign investors from well‐governed countries tend to foster public accountability, reduce asymmetry information and corruption. We find empirical evidence that foreign equity portfolio investment interacts with stock market development and central bank transparency to reduce corruption. Our results suggest that stock market development and central bank transparency are regarded as complementary by international portfolio investors. Further analysis indicates that corruption appears more prevalent in countries where domestic investors dominate the stock market. Our results are robust to endogeneity using dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM). The findings suggest that attracting foreign equity investors reduces corruption, implying significant benefits for portfolio diversification.