International Human Dimensions Programme Research Articles

Новый старый смысл «правила Королевы»

Новый старый смысл «правила Королевы»

International aid, trade and investment and access and allocation

The access to goods and their allocation (who gets what, when, where and how) is one of the analytical problems of the 2009 Earth System Governance (ESG) Science and Implementation Plan (Biermann, in: Earth System Governance project report, IHDP no. 1, International Human Dimensions Program, Bonn). The 2009 Science Plan distinguishes three dimensions of access: fair outcomes, adequate pathways and effective reallocation. This paper answers the question: how have scholars used concepts related to access and allocation in their research related to international aid, trade and investment. In other words, what have we learnt from the environmental governance literature about who gets what, when and why in the areas of international trade, aid or investment? To date there has not been an attempt to synthesise the findings of this research and this is the gap that this paper addresses. The paper first highlights the key themes in the literature on access and allocation from a justice perspective. It analyses the literature of the ESG and related communities over the last 10 years on international aid, trade, and investment, drawing out the important issues and findings. This study found that most papers applied empirical case study methodologies, highlighted how governance deficits contributed to environmental injustice and were normatively premised on the need to solve the particular and case based problems of global inequality related to resource use and distribution. However, existing studies fell short of identifying the conceptual preconditions and ideal parameters for fair access and allocation of environmental resources in international economic systems. Future research is needed on the extent, nature and causes of the underlying normative and structural elements of the international economic systems that entrench unfair access and allocation of environmental goods and services; on the nature and protagonists of environmental rights and duties and on the elements of governance that may guarantee fair access and allocation in international trade, aid and investment.

Earth Stewardship for a New Planetary Epoch

Earth System Governance: World Politics in the Anthropocene. By Frank Biermann. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014, 267 pp., $54.00 hardcover (ISBN: 9780262028226), $27.00 paperback (ISBN: 9780262526692). The Anthropocene is, according to some scientists, a new epoch in planetary history, marking the “Age of Man”—a geological time period in which human activities have a significant impact on the earth's ecosystems (for example, Lewis and Maslin ⇓). In Earth System Governance , Frank Biermann takes as his point of departure that destructive human impact on planetary systems requires a new paradigm for earth stewardship. The book is ambitious, seeking to develop such a new paradigm or normative theory of earth system governance—“the critique of the existing systems of governance in light of the exigencies of earth system transformation in the Anthropocene” (p. 10). Earth system governance has emerged as a vibrant and productive field of research over the last decade. This book is directly related to the Earth System Governance Project, a long-term global research network launched in 2009 under the auspices of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). More broadly, Biermann's book is firmly rooted in the social sciences and contributes to the literature on global governance, global environmental politics, and international institutions. Although the concept of “earth system governance” appears well developed in many research contributions (not least from …

Regional initiatives for interlinking global coastal scientific research projects

LOICZ (Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) (see http://www.loicz.org/) is a core research project of International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) (and previously also the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP) involving scientists from across the globe investigating biogeochemical as well as social, economic and governance related coastal zone research. Since 2003, its focus on human dimensions allows better informing the scientific community, policymakers, managers and other stakeholders on the relevance of global environmental change in the coastal zone. LOICZ has six existing regional nodes: in South Asia (Chennai, India), Southeast Asia (Singapore), East Asia (Yantai, China), Latin America (Rio de Janeiro) and North America (Louisiana, USA). The four upcoming nodes include Arctic (Canada), West Africa (Nigeria), Caribbean (Trinidad & Tobago) and China (Taiwan). Each regional node coordinates and promotes global change research at the regional and local level as well as facilitates links and exchanges between international, national and local science and policy.

Narratives of the past for Future Earth: The historiography of global environmental change research

This paper analyses the auto-historiography of global environmental change research. It traces how participating researchers make sense of and rationalise research strategies through narratives of the history of global change and Earth System science. Our study draws on personal and programme accounts of Earth System science’s background related to the international global environmental change research programmes International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and Future Earth, from 1983 to 2013. The study finds three core narratives: the science history narrative motivates the future development of the programme by building on the successes of earlier international projects. The Earth System departs from an enhanced understanding of environmental change over time. Finally, the Anthropocene narrative underpins arguments for a science-based management of human–environment systems. We argue that including reflexive analytical perspectives in the history writing of Future Earth contributes to making environmental change research relevant and useful for democratic decision-making.

One Model to Fit All? The Pursuit of Integrated Earth System Models in GAIM and AIMES

Previous research connecting scientific knowledge production with governing of the global environment usually start in international climate change negotiations and related assessments. From that vantage point Earth system science and models are studied as an expansion of Global Circulation Models. By tracing of the history of the present Earth system outlook this thesis offers a reflection about how scientific knowledge produce and connects problems with descriptions of desired order of things and strategies to get there. Knowledge becomes a productive power by shaping fields of possible action in relation to the global environment. The interpreted empirical material consists of scientific discussions from the International global environmental change programmes and particularly the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on global environmental change (IHDP). The studied period spans from the start of the planning of the IGBP in 1983 to the presentation of the new research programme Future Earth in 2013. The thesis is organised around the effects of the IGBP’s strategy to use predictive Earth system models as a tool to bring a broad range of scientific disciplines together. The results demonstrate the historicity of the present Earth system outlook by showing how ecosystems and human dimensions were attributed new and more important roles as drivers of global change. The thesis also argue for the need to approach the ‘Earth system’ as a result of a productive tension between top-down perspectives found in global modelling and bottom-up empirical research engaging with process interactions down to local scales.

Living with global climate diversity—suggestions on international governance for coping with climate change risk

Climatic conditions have important influences on human life and the sustainable development of economies and societies. Climate varies in space and time. People have always lived with climate diversity, and the two influence each other. The degree of mutual influence differs at different spatial and temporal scales. Since the industrial revolution, the human effect on climate has gradually increased, and expanded from local to global scale. To allow people to live in harmony with nature and prevent disaster risks, the International Human Dimensions Program on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) announced the implementation of a scientific plan aimed at discussing risk governance, especially with respect to large-scale disaster risks, under global environmental change conditions (IHDP—Integrated Risk Governance Project, 2009–2019). As the initiator of this scientific plan, the authors propose a strategic development framework for living with global climate diversity considering a series of large-scale disasters in China and around the world in recent years and relevant experiences and lessons, and offer suggestions for the global mechanism of dealing with climate change risks.

Rational Land Planning Utilization Structure Optimization Based on Multi-Objective Linear Programming Model of Foshan

Regional land use/cover change is one of the hot issues of the global research. Since the proposal of “land use/cover change” research program by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program（IGBP）and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change（IHDP）in 1995, the research on the land use structure optimization has been increasingly important as the core issue of regional land use/cover change. The structural optimization of land use refers to the use of certain techniques and methods to make the regional future land use structure achieve the best economic, ecological and social benefits. Base on the multi-objective linear programming model and through the setting of 14 variables, this paper has proposed the land use structural optimization program for the rational land planning of Foshan, thus providing reference for the rational land planning of economically developed area.

Greening the United Nations Charter: World Politics in the Anthropocene

A revised version of this working paper has been published as: Biermann, Frank. 2012. Greening the United Nations Charter: World Politics in the Anthropocene. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. May / June 2012. A constitutional turn is needed to bring the UN system in line with the urgent needs of planetary stewardship and earth system governance in the 21st century. Yet how this could be organized in practice remains a challenge and subject to political and scholarly debate. This paper contributes to this debate by outlining four reforms of the UN system that would advance global decision-making by addressing major shortcomings in the current system: Lack of integration of economic and environmental policies in the UN system; institutional fragmentation and weakness of the environmental pillar of sustainable development; lack of high-level regulatory competence and oversight regarding areas beyond national jurisdiction; and insufficient integration of scientific insights into political decision-making. The reforms proposed would together create an Earth Alliance in the UN system, consisting of a high-level UN Sustainable Development Council, a World Environment Organization, a UN Trusteeship Council for Areas beyond National Jurisdiction, and an UN Global Environmental Assessment Commission.

Symposium 10: Planetary Stewardship and the Millennium Assessment of Human Behavior (MAHB)

Symposium 10: Planetary Stewardship and the Millennium Assessment of Human Behavior (MAHB)

Earth system governance: a research framework

The Earth System Science Partnership, which unites all major global change research programmes, declared in 2001 an urgent need to develop “strategies for Earth System management”. Yet what such strategies might be, how they could be developed, and how effective, efficient and equitable such strategies would be, remains unspecified. It is apparent that the institutions, organizations and mechanisms by which humans currently govern their relationship with the natural environment and global biochemical systems are not only insufficient—they are also poorly understood. This article presents the science programme of the Earth System Governance Project, a new 10-year global research effort endorsed by the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). It outlines the concept of earth system governance as a challenge for the social sciences, and it elaborates on the interlinked analytical problems and research questions of earth system governance as an object of study. These analytical problems concern the overall architecture of earth system governance, agency beyond the state and of the state, the adaptiveness of governance mechanisms and processes as well as their accountability and legitimacy, and modes of allocation and access in earth system governance. The article also outlines four crosscutting research themes that are crucial for the study of each analytical problem as well as for the integrated understanding of earth system governance: the role of power, knowledge, norms and scale.

Research on Integrated Disaster Risk Governance in the Context of Global Environmental Change

To achieve sustainable development, understand- ing of the impact of global environmental change on natural resources and the frequency, intensity, and spatial-temporal patterns of all kinds of hazards should be advanced. In recent years, severe losses of human lives and property have been caused by very large-scale natural hazards all over the world, such as the freezing rain and snowstorm disaster in China in 2008, Typhoon Sidr in Bangladesh in 2007, and Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005. Strengthening the study on integrated disaster risk governance has become a pressing issue of sustainable development. Supported by the Chinese National Committee for the International Human Dimensions Program on Global Environmental Change (CNC-IHDP), its Working Group for Risk Governance proposed to the IHDP in 2006 to launch a new international research project on integrated risk governance (IRG) in the context of global environmental change. The IRG-Project was accepted by the IHDP Scientific Committee as a pilot science project in 2008 and was approved in 2010 as a full IHDP core science project under the Strategic Plan 2007-2015. The research foci of this international science project will be on the issues of science, technology, and management of integrated disaster risk governance based on case comparisons around the world, in order to advance the theories and methodologies of integrated disaster risk governance and to improve the practices of integrated disaster reduction in the real world.

The Politics of Water Science: On Unresolved Water Problems and Biased Research Agendas

May 01 2009 The Politics of Water Science: On Unresolved Water Problems and Biased Research Agendas Joyeeta Gupta, Joyeeta Gupta Joyeeta Gupta is Professor of Climate Change Law and Policy at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and of Water Law and Policy at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education in Delft. She is editor-in-chief of International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics and is on the editorial board of Carbon and Climate Law Review, International Journal on Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Policy, and International Community Law Review. She was lead author in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that recently shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. She is on the scientific steering committees of, amongst others, the Global Water Systems Project and the Earth System Governance project of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Pieter van der Zaag Pieter van der Zaag Pieter van der Zaag teaches integrated water resources management at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education in Delft, The Netherlands, and holds a Professorship at Delft University of Technology. He has been involved in a number of multidisciplinary research and capacity building projects in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mexico, Mozambique, Peru, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa and Zimbabwe. He sits on the Academic Board of the Water Research Fund for Southern Africa WARFSA, and on the Editorial Board of the international journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. He is member of the IAHS committee on Integrated Water Resources Management and a scientific advisor of the International Foundation for Science. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information Joyeeta Gupta Joyeeta Gupta is Professor of Climate Change Law and Policy at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and of Water Law and Policy at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education in Delft. She is editor-in-chief of International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics and is on the editorial board of Carbon and Climate Law Review, International Journal on Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Policy, and International Community Law Review. She was lead author in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that recently shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. She is on the scientific steering committees of, amongst others, the Global Water Systems Project and the Earth System Governance project of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change. Pieter van der Zaag Pieter van der Zaag teaches integrated water resources management at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education in Delft, The Netherlands, and holds a Professorship at Delft University of Technology. He has been involved in a number of multidisciplinary research and capacity building projects in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mexico, Mozambique, Peru, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa and Zimbabwe. He sits on the Academic Board of the Water Research Fund for Southern Africa WARFSA, and on the Editorial Board of the international journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. He is member of the IAHS committee on Integrated Water Resources Management and a scientific advisor of the International Foundation for Science. *An earlier version of this paper was presented at the European Geophysical Union General Assembly in Vienna, 18 April 2008. We are grateful to Patricia Darvis for comparing the Scopus bibliometric data with the ISI Web of Science database. We are indebted for the valuable comments by two anonymous reviewers. Joyeeta Gupta wishes to acknowledge that her contribution to this paper was undertaken in the context of the “Inter-governmental and private environmental regimes and compatibility with good governance, rule of law and sustainable development” project, which is financially supported by NWO, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (Contract: 452-02-031). Online ISSN: 1536-0091 Print ISSN: 1526-3800 © 2009 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2009 Global Environmental Politics (2009) 9 (2): 14–23. https://doi.org/10.1162/glep.2009.9.2.14 Cite Icon Cite Permissions Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Search Site Citation Joyeeta Gupta, Pieter van der Zaag; The Politics of Water Science: On Unresolved Water Problems and Biased Research Agendas. Global Environmental Politics 2009; 9 (2): 14–23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/glep.2009.9.2.14 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsGlobal Environmental Politics Search Advanced Search This content is only available as a PDF. © 2009 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2009 Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

Establishing A Earth Observation Product Service For The Terrestrial Carbon Community: The Globcarbon Initiative

'Greenhouse gases', especially carbon dioxide, are intimately connected to climate change. To understand the future evolution of the climate system and find ways to manage the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the processes and feedbacks that drive the carbon cycle must first be understood. However, our current knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns is uncertain, particularly over land and in regions of potentially high sensitivity to change like the boreal zone. The European Space Agency (ESA) GLOBCARBON project aims to generate fully calibrated estimates of at-land products quasi-independent of the original Earth Observation source for use primarily in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, but also as a contribution to the Global Carbon Project, a cooperation between the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme, International Human Dimensions Programme and the World Climate Research Programme to aid understanding of global carbon cycling. The service will feature estimation of global burned area, the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), leaf area index (LAI) and Vegetation Growth Cycle. The demonstrator will focus on ten complete years, from 1998 to 2007 when overlap exists between ESA Earth Observation sensors and others that are synergistic. However, the system will be flexible so that it is not dependent on any single satellite sensor and therefore can be retrospectively applied to existing archives and used with future satellite sensors.

The Environmental, Social, and Health Dimensions of Urban Expansion

This article was originally written as the background paper for a cyberseminar held from 29 November–15 December 2004 under the auspices of Population-Environment Research Network or PERN a joint activity of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) on Global Environmental Change. Originally posted online at the PERN website it has been revised and updated to take into account contributions of participants in the cyberseminar. The article focuses upon the environmental social and health dimensions of urban expansion. Our goal is to compare and contrast the processes of urban expansion and transformation in developing and developed countries. We expect a research agenda to emerge that will foster understanding of the processes contexts and outcomes of urbanization as well as the understanding that will ultimately contribute to policy solutions. Our article benefits from and hopefully will contribute to parallel projects being developed by IHDP Urbanization Science Project the IUSSP Urbanizations and Health Working Group the U.S. National Academies’ Panel on Urban Population Dynamics the U.S. National Academies’ Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability’s Task Force on Rapid Urbanization The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment the World Bank’s Cities Alliance and Cities in Transition and other initiatives that recognize the importance of examining the urban transformation we are experiencing in a comprehensive integrated manner. (excerpt)

Human Dimensions Of The Arctic System

In 1997, the National Science Foundation (USA) started a project called Human Dimensions of the Arctic System, given the acronym HARC. This initiative was part of the Arctic System Science Program, intended to promote understanding of the processes and feedbacks that involve and shape the physical, biological, and social components of the Arctic. HARC, in turn, was designed to boost research involving those social components, examining ways in which humans affect and are affected by the Arctic system. In a meeting of HARC investigators in 2002, several people suggested compiling a journal issue dedicated to Arctic human dimensions research. This issue [Arctic, v. 57, no. 4] is the result. I am grateful to the authors of the papers for making that idea a reality. On their behalf and mine, I thank the National Science Foundation for funding this issue and the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States for administrative and intellectual support. Arctic human dimensions research neither began nor developed in isolation. Various national and international efforts, such as the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP), have sponsored, encouraged, and developed a community of researchers for the field. Nonetheless, HARC stands out in three ways: it has a clear geographic focus; it has a strong link to physical and biological research in the same region and program; and researchers have had considerable latitude in determining appropriate subjects and methods for their studies. This collection of papers reflects that diversity, constituting a rough and partial summary of HARC's achievements, plus one paper ... that was not part of HARC but addresses a relevant topic. ... three main conclusions can be drawn. First, the human dimensions of the Arctic system are extensive, complex, and diverse. Second, the study of human dimensions is similarly diverse, innovative, and compelling. Third, the field has matured to the stage that the next major challenge lies in synthesizing the results of many individual studies so that we can discern patterns and paradigms that will further illuminate the various case studies already conducted. If we can maintain the momentum generated by the work to date, the study of human dimensions in the Arctic has a bright future.

Anthropogenic-driven changes with focus on the coastal zone of Mauritius, south-western Indian Ocean

Some 44% of the world's population lives within 150 km of the coast and mass migration towards the coast will continue in the decades ahead. Degrading and exhaustive uses of land, water and other coastal resources and disruption of environmental processes through degradation of environmental quality and loss of critical terrestrial and aquatic habitats can lead to serious deleterious impacts on the health and productivity of coastal ecosystems. Following the Arusha Resolution (1993), the Seychelles Statement (1996) and the Colombo CZM Workshop (1999), the need for integrated coastal zone management has become critical because of the limited land resources and unproportional domination of coastal areas in the wider Caribbean and Indian Ocean/ Pacific island states. The coastal zone of Mauritius (1,850 km2, 20°S, 58°E, south-western Indian Ocean, 1.12 million inhabitants) was redefined in 1997 in the Environmental Protection Act of 1991 [Part VII (Act 34)] to include all islets within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ; 1.7 million km2). During the 1980s, the Mauritian economy underwent major structural changes successfully, with a rapid phase of industrialization diversifying into two major activities, textiles and tourism. Existing reports and data in a common framework have to be synthesized and organized to fill existing gaps in knowledge with data collection and scientific inquiries, to identify social and economic drivers and to relate socioeconomic change to demands for environmental resources (land use, water resources, marine systems) and environmental impacts as proposed under the MERMAID (Mauritius Environmental Resource Management and Industrial Development) project. Nutrient flux and sediment trace metal contamination studies are currently underway to investigate different watersheds impacted by agricultural, urban and industrial activities in the north-west of the island. There is a pressing need to integrate the natural sciences with socioeconomic disciplines as proposed by the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP) for an integrated management of coastal zones. Three integrated pilot projects in the Pacific-Indian Ocean and wider Caribbean as identified by Land Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) in the future, including current status and changes in material fluxes from drainage basins, transboundary impacts from the ocean and atmospheric inputs, could elucidate the land–sea interactions and human dimensions of change on small islands. The sustainability of marine resources and the conservation of biological diversity will depend on a critical understanding of linkages between human activities and ecological responses and upon a citizenry that assumes ownership of these regions. Case studies would also help in investigating how humans affect transport pathways and biogeochemical cycles in small island states.

Remote sensing: environmental change

Among the advantages of satellite imagery for geographical research is the ability tocapture in an instant a synoptic view of a large part of the Earth’s surface and to acquirerepeated measurements of the same area on a regular basis. It is precisely theseproperties that make satellite remote sensing such an important source of data forstudies of the dynamics of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. International researchprogrammes such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), theInternational Geosphere– Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate ResearchProgram and the International Human Dimensions Programme on GlobalEnvironmental Change (IHDP) make extensive use of satellite observations because itis possible to derive quantitative measurements of the dynamics of many atmospheric,oceanographic and land surface characteristics. Humans are changing the natural rateof carbon exchange between the Earth’s atmosphere and the terrestrial biospherethrough land use change. Remote sensing can provide an effective tool to examinecarbon stocks and their response to human interference through deforestation, refor-estation, afforestation and other forms of land use change. These data are helping toinform the IPCC to formulate policy responses to climate change (for example theKyoto Protocol) and to monitor policies introduced to mitigate the increased levels ofCO

Industrial Transformation Science Plan, IHDP Report No. 12, Edited by Pier Vellinga and Nadia Herb, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany, December 1999, 94 pp., softcover

Industrial Transformation Science Plan, IHDP Report No. 12, Edited by Pier Vellinga and Nadia Herb, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany, December 1999, 94 pp., softcover

中国土地利用構造と一般チューネン＝リカードモデル

Land use phenomena make up a important aspect of ‘environmental system’. LUCC (Land Use/Cover Change) is the joint core project of IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) and IHDP (International Human Dimensions Programme) under the international scheme of ICSU (International Council for Science). LU/GEC (Land Use for Global Environmental Conservation) is the largest LUCC-related project in Japan by NIES aiming at land use prediction models for Asia-Pacific region.The GT (Generalized Thunen)-model (小長谷1997a, b, 1998, Konagaya1997, 1998, 1999a, b, c) is the extension of traditional normative Thiinen model, the exact fundamental theory of land market, to be able to explain the aggregated land use ratios. This new model successfully give a exact theoretical interpretation to the intuitive picture of ‘movement of land use frontier’ such as deforestation or desertification, and enables us to predict the land use change in the future.小長谷・大坪・スンスン (1998『環境システム研究26』) predicts 2025 land use of Jawa and Kalimantan, and Konagaya (1999a, b), 小長谷・大坪 (1998『地球環境シンポジウム6』) analysed the land use of Sumatra with fairly good explanatory powers around R2=0.8.Today the regions with rapid economic growth and environmental destruction concentrate on China proper, thus, effective land use models on China are needed urgently. The Chinese land has a larger scale compared to one island region in South-East Asian countries, various physical conditions are necessary to be incorporated. Because the GT-model stated above based mainly on economic conditions and influences from cities (urban driving force variables), a newly extended model: GTR (Generalized Thiinen-Ricardo)-model integrating the urban driving force variables with the micro physical conditions in each site (on-site variables) is needed.This study analyzes and predicts the Chinese land use by the GTR-model. Southern China has been the center of agricultural production until now. However, the GTR-model predicts that urbanization and industrialization in the south region will drive agricultural land use to the north, making a drastic change in large land use structure of China in 2025.