International Housing Market Research Articles

International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis

AbstractWe propose a novel decomposition approach to study the degree of co‐movement of international housing markets while distinguishing among different economic drivers. We find that the housing market variability for an average country was mainly driven by the common housing risk premium components during the years leading up to the 2007–08 subprime financial crisis. A decrease in the common housing risk premium was followed by a housing boom and economic expansion in the United States prior to the crisis. Our findings add to the understanding of the role of common risk factors across international housing markets before the crisis.

Time-frequency linkages of international housing markets and macroeconomic drivers

PurposeThe studies on international housing markets have not modeled frequency domain and focused only on the time domain. The purpose of the present research is to fill this gap by using the state-of-the-art econometric technique of wavelets to understand how differences in the horizon of analysis across time impact international housing markets’ relationship with some of the key macroeconomic variables. The purpose is to also analyze the direction of causation in the relationships.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the novel time–frequency analysis of international housing markets’ linkages to the macroeconomic drivers. Unlike conventional approaches that do not distinguish between time and frequency domain, the author uses wavelets to study house prices’ relationship with its drivers in the time–frequency space. The novelty of the approach also allows gaining insights into the debates that deal with the direction of causation between house price changes and macroeconomic variables.FindingsResults show that the relationship between house prices and key macroeconomic indicators varies significantly across countries, time, frequencies and the direction of causation. House prices are most related to interest rates at the higher frequencies (short-run) and per capita income growth at the lower frequencies (long-run). The role of industrial production and income growth has switched over time at lower frequencies, particularly, in Finland, France, Sweden and Japan. The stock market’s nexus with the housing market is significant mainly at high to medium frequencies around the recent financial crisis.Research limitations/implicationsThe present research implies that in contrast to the existing approaches that are limited to the only time domain, the frequency considerations are equally, if not more, important.Practical implicationsResults show that interested researchers and analysts of international housing markets need to account for the both horizon and time under consideration. Because the factors that drive high-frequency movements in housing market are very different from low-frequency movements. Furthermore, these roles vary over time.Social implicationsThe insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing social change in the housing markets need to account for the time–frequency dynamics found in this study.Originality/valueThe paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to propose the use of a time–frequency approach in modeling international housing market dynamics. Second, unlike present studies, it is the first to uncover the direction of causation between house prices and economic variables for each frequency at every point of time.

Forecasting Interconnections in International Housing Markets: Evidence from the Dynamic Model Averaging Approach

In this paper, I undertake a novel approach to uncover the forecasting interconnections in the international housing markets. Using a dynamic model averaging framework that allows both the coefficients and the entire forecasting model to dynamically change over time, I uncover the intertwined forecasting relationships in 23 leading international housing markets. The evidence suggests significant forecasting interconnections in these markets. However, no country holds a constant forecasting advantage, including the United States and the United Kingdom, although the U.S. housing market's predictive power has increased over time. Evidence also suggests that allowing the forecasting model to change is more important than allowing the coefficients to change over time.

An international housing market in the British Isles: Evidence from business and medium-term cycles using a Friedman test

It has been averred that there is an international market in housing (inter alia, Adams Z and Füss R (2010) Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics 19(1): 38–50; Helbling T and Terrones M (2003) When Bubbles Burst – Chapter II, World Economic Outlook. April. Washington, DC: IMF; Pomogajko K and Voigtländer M (2012) Co-movement of house price cycles – A factor analysis. International Journal of Housing Markets & Analysis 5(4): 414–427). Although some authors examine the business cycle range, the mechanism by which this comes about is more likely to reflect financial market integration and evidence for this should be found in the medium-term cycle range. As a case study, there is an analysis of three associated ‘regional’ housing markets and their price movements. Northern Ireland’s economy is distinct but should be linked to the rest of the UK by common policy shocks, and to Eire through a mutual border. Using a Friedman test, it is found that even this small cluster is not integrated. It is asserted that a housing cycle has both a financial and a business component. As Drehmann et al. (Drehmann M, Borio C and Tstasaronis K (2012) Characterising the financial cycle: Don’t lose sight of the medium term! BIS Working Papers, No. 380, Bank for International Settlements, June) argue, cycles in the medium-term range are significant in housing. A dual component approach highlights the relevance of cyclical interaction for both revealing integration and the need to intervene to moderate cyclical reinforcement for crisis-avoidance. After 1995, Dublin and London are found to be more integrated than before, which is consistent with the international city integration thesis of Holly et al. (Holly S, Pesaran H and Yamagata T (2011) The spatio-temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK. Journal of Urban Economics 69(1): 2–23). Lastly, a simple test for cyclical asymmetry indicates that there is highness (the obverse of deepness, where the troughs are deeper than peaks) in the UK financial cycle.

Cultural similarities and housing market linkage: evidence from OECD countries

The subprime crisis provoked a growing study on international housing market linkage. Nevertheless, the extant literature fails to explore housing price co-movements in terms of culture and a country’s responses (e.g. housing market conditions and government participation). Employing the databases on cultural similarities, housing market conditions and government participation in 18 OECD countries over 1970–2016, this article suggests that culture similarities affect house price co-movements via information dissemination efficiency and investment conduct consistency. In addition, housing supply elasticity and government participation are able to mitigate house price contagion. Hence, to withstand external shocks, countries should pay attention to the role of cultural similarities in housing price interdependence. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure that housing supply is resilient and improve government participation.

A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Market

A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Market

International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

Additions to the aggregate housing stock are a broad measure of the state of an economy and overall level of confidence in a particular region over a designated period. This is due to the direct and indirect effect (e.g. employment in the housing construction industry) upon on the local economy and is linked to the confidence of local households in the future direction of housing investment, the level of housing affordability by households as related to employment levels and the relationship between supply and demand in each region. Another consideration is the ability of the government to monitor and successfully intervene in the operation of the household market (e.g. mortgage interest rates) with the intent of restricting an over-supply situation which may take years to fully recover. The analysis in this section examines new housing commencements for Scotland, Australia, USA and Canada over an extended time period with the specific focus placed on the periods before, during and after the high profile global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The graph in Figure 1 was adapted from data sourced from The Scottish Government (2013) and covers the 15-year period between 1998 and 2012. With the exception of 1999 there were been relatively few years with substantial additions to the housing market. However, the effect of the GFC can clearly be observed post 2007 although by 2012 there was relatively change from the previous year.

International Housing Markets Co-Movements

We examine house price co-movements within and cross four major economic blocks: North America, Europe, Oceania and the Far East. The purpose of this study is to establish: (1) Whether there was increased house price correlation within a given economic block or across different blocks in the past 10 years (perhaps as a result of capital market integration); (2) Whether there was excess correlation between some global cities, say, London and New York; and (3) The relative importance of volatility driver in different housing markets. The investigation is based on city-level data whenever possible, as conventional wisdom suggests that housing markets are geographically segmented. The study has implications for a growing class of affluent individuals seeking to diversify their international real estate holdings, as well as for mortgage lenders and policy makers.

Is There Evidence of Shift-Contagion in International Housing Markets?

The paper attempts to provide, for housing markets, evidence of 'shift-contagion' at the international level, i.e., regime shifts in the transmission of asset prices during crisis periods. The focus is in particular on UK and Spain. We use a Markov Switching FAVAR framework and regime-dependent impulse response functions. The 'Crisis' regime which we identify endogenously is shown to also correspond to an exogenously determined index of frequency of financial crises in OECD countries, which peaked in the early 1990s and in the more recent Subprime crisis. Furthermore, we find that the response of domestic house price to a shock to a common (global) house price factor during a 'Crisis' regime is relatively more amplified than in a 'Normal' (more tranquil) regime. Less compelling evidence is found for France.

The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets

This paper shows novel evidence on the mechanism through which financial constraints amplify fluctuations in asset prices and credit demand. It does so using contractual features of housing finance. Among agents whose housing demand is constrained by the availability of collateral, those who can borrow against a larger fraction of their housing value (achieve a higher loan-tovalue, or LTV, ratio) have more procyclical debt capacity. This procyclicality underlies the financial accelerator mechanism. Our study uses international variation in LTV ratios over three decades to test whether (a) housing prices and (b) demand for new mortgage borrowings are more sensitive to income shocks in countries where households can achieve higher LTV ratios. The results we obtain are consistent with the dynamics of a collateral-based financial accelerator in international housing markets. Copyright Oxford University Press 2006

The Financial Accelerator in Household Spending: Evidence from International Housing Markets

This paper shows novel evidence on the mechanism through which financial constraints amplify fluctuations in asset prices and credit. It does so using contractual features of housing finance. Among agents whose housing demand is constrained by the availability of collateral, those who can borrow against a larger fraction of their housing value (achieve a higher loan-to-value, or LTV, ratio) have more procyclical debt capacity. This procyclicality underlies the financial accelerator mechanism described by Stein (1995) and Bernanke et al. (1996). Our study uses international variation in maximum LTV ratios over three decades to test whether (a) housing prices and (b) demand for new mortgage borrowings are more sensitive to income shocks in countries where households can achieve higher LTV ratios. The results we obtain are consistent with the dynamics of a collateral-based financial accelerator in housing markets.

The Demand for Housing in Developing Countries: Empirical Estimates from Household Data

Cities in developing countries are growing at extraordinary rates, often compressing into decades the urbanization process that has taken centuries in developed countries. In coping with this growth, public authorities have devised a wide range of policy instruments to influence the rate and character of city expansion, to meet the needs of people for shelter and urban services, and to allocate resources in ways that redistribute both the costs and benefits of urban growth. Ideally, such policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behavior of urban markets; in fact, little information on market behavior is available to the policymakers of developing countries. Such basic information is needed for improved project design and, even more important, for improved sector-wide policies. This paper reports on research conducted at the World Bank to increase understanding of developing country housing markets; in particular, of housing-demand behavior. While the overall project examines both the demand for housing characteristics' and the demand for housing as a composite good, this paper addresses only the latter. The objectives of this paper are (1) to review briefly previous evidence on housing-demand parameters in developing countries; (2) to present new evidence on housing-demand parameters based on application of standardized models and comparable variable definitions in 16 cities in eight developing countries (Colombia, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, India, Jamaica, Korea, and the Philippines); and (3) to examine similarities and differences among cities in housing demand and, in a preliminary way, offer explanations for place-to-place differences. Limited comparisons are also made to two U.S. cities in order to begin comparison of developing and developed country market behavior.