International Financial Assets Research Articles

FEATURES, ANALYSIS AND RESULTS OF METHODS OF ATTRACTING FINANCIAL RESOURCES FROM THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET

This article examines and analyzes the essence and specific aspects of various methods of attracting capital from the international financial market, the processes related to the organization of effective capital attraction and efficient use through the international financial market, IPO practice. In addition, various research methods were used to analyze the optimal use of cheap and long-term financial resources through the use of various methods of attracting capital through the international financial market. Also, the essence, development trends of the international financial market, main aspects of international financial assets, characteristics of IPO practice were analyzed. Scientific conclusions and suggestions on further development of Uzbekistan's participation in the international financial market and attracting and using foreign capital are given.

The evolution of day-of-the-week and the implications in crude oil market

The movement of prices in the crude oil market are important to the international economy and financial asset returns. Day-of- the-week effect is a great challenge to the market's effectiveness. We examine the evolution of day-of-the-week and investigate its implications based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil return from 14 May 2007 to 14 May 2021. We have obtained convincing findings that there is abnormal positive return on Wednesdays because the inventory shock schedule. Abnormal negative return on Mondays disappears sometimes, because bad sentiment is not the only decisive factor, as it is also determined by reactions to good sentiment. The results provide implication for the day-of-the-week effect and new evidence that crude oil market's efficiency changes over time. Policy makers, investors and producers can benefit from this.

Risk spillover network structure learning for correlated financial assets: A directed acyclic graph approach

Using cross-asset return data in global financial markets, we propose a novel empirical framework to identify the causal structure of the asset risk spillover network. The joint return distribution of the global financial system can be characterized using a directed acyclic graph approach. However, since assets tend to be highly correlated during market turbulence, when adopting a nodewise penalized regression approach for neighborhood estimation, parameter estimates will receive large standard errors, and edges cannot be reliably estimated. In this work, we propose a two-stage approach for directed acyclic graph skeleton estimation for highly correlated variables. In the first stage, a variable screening ensemble is incorporated into the sparse partial least squares regression method to both reduce the size of the active variables set and impose an adaptive penalization on the weight vectors. In the second stage, a modified PC algorithm based on Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization is applied to remove the false positive edges. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, we apply our method to analyze the asset risk spillover channels for international financial assets during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Euro Area Quantitative Easing in a Portfolio Balance Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Assets

We develop a portfolio balance model to study the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) on international financial asset returns through the portfolio balance channel. Our two-country model features heterogeneity in assets and investor preferences. Both are crucial for a meaningful model-based impact assessment of QE. Preferences for asset maturity, asset class (bonds, equities and currencies) and whether an asset is issued at home or abroad influence the substitutability of assets, which drives the portfolio balance effect of central bank asset purchases. We calibrate the two countries in our model to the euro area and a representative sample of rest-of-the-world (ROW) countries in order to estimate the international impact of the ECB’s asset purchase program announced in January 2015. When simulating our model, we find that central bank asset purchases decrease both domestic and foreign yields. While the effects of QE on domestic yields and the exchange rate are rather modest and smaller than commonly assumed in the literature, domestic stock prices increase substantially.

Fuzzy logic-based portfolio selection with particle filtering and anomaly detection

This paper proposes a new knowledge-based system (KBS) featuring fuzzy logic (FL) with particle filtering and anomaly detection to create high-performance investment portfolios. In particular, our FL system selects a portfolio with fine risk-return profiles from a number of candidates by integrating multilateral performance measures. The candidates consist of various portfolios based on multiple time-series models estimated by a particle filter with anomaly detectors. In an out-of-sample numerical experiment with a dataset of international financial assets, we demonstrate our KBS successfully generates a series of selected portfolios with satisfactory investment records.

Fuzzy Logic-Based Portfolio Selection with Particle Filtering and Anomaly Detection

This paper proposes a new fuzzy logic (FL)-based expert system with particle filtering and anomaly detection to create high-performance investment portfolios. In particular, our FL system selects a portfolio with fine risk-return profiles from a number of candidates by integrating multilateral performance measures including Sharpe, Sortino and Sterling ratios. The candidates consist of various mean-variance portfolios with multiple time-series models estimated by a particle filter and anomaly detectors. In an out-of-sample numerical experiment with a dataset of international financial assets, we demonstrates our expert system successfully generates a series of mean-variance portfolios with satisfactory investment records.

Cross-financial-market correlations and quantitative easing

We examine the correlations between bond markets, stock markets and currency forwards during the quantitative easing (QE) programs launched by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using DCC-GARCH models, we document a spillover impact of QE on the international financial markets and find that these correlations differ by QE period across developed and emerging countries. Our findings provide new insights into the impact of unconventional monetary policy regimes on the relationships between various international financial asset markets.

Atlas constrained: the US external balance sheet and international monetary power

ABSTRACTWe address the impact on international monetary power of the size and nature of the US's international financial assets and liabilities. Financial globalization makes critical a focus on a nation's international financial assets and liabilities, its ‘external balance sheet’. We suggest an expansion of Cohen's existing framework of international monetary power to include the implications of valuation changes in these external balance sheets, focusing on sources of valuation, sensitivity and vulnerability of the US economy to these changes and implications for US ability to use monetary statecraft. By focusing on developments since 2007 and on events over the financial crisis period, we show that the increased size and nature of the US's external balance sheet has reduced US autonomy and monetary power. Underpinning the changes in the US's external balance sheet are activities of private financial market actors whose influence in international monetary affairs has grown markedly.

Interest rates parity and no arbitrage as equivalent equilibrium conditions in the international financial assets and goods markets

In this paper, we consider a two-period consumption model with many financial assets. In the spirit of Hart (1974), consumers purchase financial assets in period 0 and consume in period 1. We differ from Hart by considering that each agent is a country. We provide conditions for the existence of an equilibrium in both international financial assets and goods markets.First, we introduce a weaker notion of Uncovered Interest (rate) Parity (UIP) called Weak Uncovered Interest (rate) Parity (WUIP), and we show its equivalence to the no-arbitrage condition in the international financial markets.Second, we introduce the concept of common no arbitrage and we show its equivalence to the UIP.These results bridge concepts of no arbitrage in general equilibrium theory and financial microeconomics, and of interest parity in international financial macroeconomics. In a multi-country model with many currencies and only one good, we introduce a country-specific conversion rate which transforms the returns on assets valued in local currency into units of physical good. We define also the exchange rates between currencies of different countries. The UIP is required for the existence of an equilibrium in both international financial assets and goods markets and for the existence of the Law of One Price.

Estimación de modelos multivariados GARCH en los mercados accionarios de China y México

This paper aims to analyze the existence of interdependence between China and Mexico’s stock markets by analyzing their financial indexes. Series of stock markets from Shangai, Shenzhen y Hang Seng (this three markets belong to China) and Mexico stock price index are modeled. The analysis covers the period from January 1st, 2009 to December 31st, 2014 with a total of 1,563 daily observations. For empirical evaluation multivariate GARCH models D-Vech, D-BEKK and Conditional Correlational Constant (CCC) were used in order to find the best model that explain the behavior of dynamic conditional volatility over time. It was found that there are asymmetries in the market and a negligible positive correlation, a weak signal transmission of volatility between the markets of China and Mexico. However, the Mexican market offers greater returns and low risk. Moreover, the CCC model is the one that explains best the behavior of the conditional variance over time, and is an accurate and parsimonious model when applied to the international financial assets under study

Global Financial Regulations: An Antidote to Economic Predicament

Due to the lack of public order in the international financial arena, asset bubbles and resource misallocations persisted over a long period of time and resulted in global financial crisis in 2008. Global financial rules, which can take on a role like that of WTO in the international trade, are urgently needed for global economic recovery. They will balance the pressure of economic restructuring between large and small countries, and push forward some countries’ domestic reforms which may hardly be implemented due to domestic politics.

Endogenous current account balances in a world CGE model with international financial assets

This paper presents an applied computable general equilibrium world model with financial assets and endogenous current account, and capital and financial account balances. The capital and financial account equilibrium conditions, rather than exogenous rules, constrain the current account balance. International capital flows which balance the current account are constrained by supply-and-demand equilibrium conditions on the market for international debt securities, under portfolio managers' optimizing behavior. The asset–liability structure of the financial portfolio is endogenous, and it is possible for a country-agent to have negative net financial assets. In simulations, the interaction of portfolio choices with trade supply and demand behavior leads to endogenous sign reversals in some current account balances, and it results in a different allocation of investment among regions, compared to a model with exogenously determined current account balances. In the reference scenario, this allocation generates growth that is about the same globally, but differently distributed between regions.

Euro Currency Trends In The Global Market

<p class="MsoBodyText" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-style: normal; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This study presents preliminary evidence on the long-term relationship between the euro and major international financial and non-financial assets. A secular relationship, if it exists, should provide the impetus for the new European currency to not only sustain itself over the long haul but also become a commanding international currency just like the U.S. dollar. Empirical results show that the pricing of crude oil is inversely related to the value of the euro, priced in U.S. dollars. Unit root tests show that series are stationary after first differencing, and cointegrated. However, Granger causality tests reveal that the euro does not Granger-cause crude oil price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Also, there is no reverse causality from oil to euro. Nonetheless, a two-way causality exists between the euro and the U.S. stock market. Contrary to the findings in earlier studies, there is no evidence of causality from the U.S. stock market to leading European financial market series.</span></span></p>

Wealth Effects in the GCC from Energy Commodity Prices

Oil-exporting countries, including the GCC economies, have experienced a windfall as a result of high oil prices since 2003. Hydro-carbon revenues in the Middle East which has the world’s largest share of oil and natural gas reserves have filtered into their domestic economies through increased government spending and large scale investment projects. However, given the exhaustible nature of energy resorces, long term planning is necessary in order to ensure that the revenues are not spent unwisely.Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) helps to connect economic theory to the practical/empirical approach of estimating the effect of higher energy prices on the stock of wealth represented by fossil fuel underground reserves. The PIH states that individuals base their consumption (and savings) decisions not on their current income which may be subject to transitory, short term fluctuations, but on their permanent income, their longer-term income prospects, and an estimate of their future wealth. The same reasoning, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to countries. In this paper we calculate the permanent income effect on the GCC countries deriving from the fluctuations of energy commodity prices and the implications for the future development of this region. Several scenarios are considered – based on assumptions over oil and gas prices and discount rates of income streams.The central result shows that the present value of the hydrocarbon wealth for the GCC countries can be estimated at USD 11.2 trillion, assuming a 3% rate of return (and discount rate) and a price of $50 per barrel (at 2009 constant prices). The analogous value for natural gas reserves assuming a discount rate of 3% and a price $9 per mn Btu stands at USD 7.1 trillion. Hence, the permanent wealth from oil and natural gas reserves under rather conservative assumptions stands at a whopping USD 18.3 trillion, giving GCC the potential to swap their fossil fuel reserves for half of the world’s current (August 2009) stock market capitalization!The energy commodity revenues should not be considered income, but as the transformation of underground wealth into financial wealth. This stream of revenues will be sufficient to finance the transformation of the GCC countries into diversified economies through investments in infrastructure and education. Additionally the revenues will continue to be invested worldwide, with non negligible repercussions on asset valuations and in particular on the continuing restructuring of the world’s financial and corporate sectors.There are a number of important lessons and consequences of the increased wealth of the GCC.• Their higher current and prospective wealth enables the GCC countries and other energy exporters to use their wealth to invest in economic diversification to reduce their vulnerability to oil and gas price fluctuations.• The increased financial wealth of the GCC calls for increased investment and resources to be devoted to wealth and asset management and control.• The fiscal situation and debt capacity of the GCC countries should be analysed taking into consideration the vast current and prospective wealth of the GCC countries.• The recent financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of the financial cushion provided by the international financial assets that the GCC built up over 2003-2008 in helping them weather the global economic and financial crisis.

RELATIVE WEALTH, GROWTH, AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS: THE SMALL OPEN ECONOMY CASE

In this paper we investigate the growth implications of relative wealth preferences in a small open economy model. Domestic capital accumulation, subject to installation costs, is the engine of economic growth in this framework. Crucial in deriving the balanced growth rate is the effective rate of return that arises from agents' status preferences. This results not only in a common balanced growth rate for consumption, the domestic capital stock, and net international financial assets, but also saddle-path dynamics in response to structural shifts. We investigate the short- and long-run dynamics of the model by considering the following standard fiscal shocks: (i) government expenditure, (ii) capital tax, (iii) tax on international financial assets, (iv) consumption tax. Among our results, we find that a permanent fiscal expansion leads to a temporary increase in growth and that a rise in the consumption tax results in a temporary decrease in growth.

Time Patience and Specialization Patterns in the Presence of Asset Trade

Specialization patterns in an open‐economy two‐sector growth model with endogenous capital accumulation are examined in the presence of free international lending and borrowing. Without free international lending and borrowing it is known that, whereas the less (time‐)patient country decumulates real capital, the more patient country accumulates real capital and eventually specializes in a capital‐intensive industry. However, free trade of international financial assets causes a dramatic change in long‐run specialization patterns. In this case the less patient country may well specialize in the capital‐intensive industry and the more patient country in the labor‐intensive industry.

Adaptation of Indian public sector to market‐based economic reforms

PurposeEconomic policy reforms, characterised by a market‐driven, privatised policy regime, are being adopted as a strategy by India to promote economic development. As markets become liberalised, public sector organisations face extreme vulnerability unless they can identify and develop the competencies necessary to thrive in these competitive markets. This paper, drawing on the resource‐based view, aims to identify the pre‐reform capabilities of public sector organisations in India and similar developing country contexts that would be relevant even in the post‐reform context.Design/methodology/approachAn interpretative and theoretical approach is used to put forth the arguments and a framework is proposed to explain the possibility of deriving competitive advantages from pre‐reform capabilities in the post‐reform context.FindingsSeveral unique capabilities of Indian public sector organisations can be identified using the resource based perspective which can be leveraged in the post‐reform context. They have superior resource‐picking capacity compared to private firms, especially for government‐regulated resources, international financial assets and modern technologies. Their internal integrative managerial systems and structures offer them an advantage in meeting the competitive demands of speed and promptness. Under effective leadership, the loyalty of a large workforce and their number of years of experience gives them an advantage of effective coordination and knowledge sharing and flow. Also, their capability in delivering economies of scale and scope due to their size and supply chain integration gives them a cost advantage over others.Practical implicationsThis paper takes a practical approach. It accepts the existing organisational culture, processes and systems of public sector organisations as given and matters of long‐term change, and identifies existing capabilities in the current organisational context that could help them survive better.Originality/valueUnlike most papers that focus on how policy changes affect public sector organisations or those that conduct a comparative analysis with the private sector on various parameters, the main focus of this paper is to identify existing capabilities that can be leveraged by public sector organisations for effective adaptation in the new scenario.

Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

The paper forecasts conditional correlations between three classes of international financial assets, namely stock, bond and foreign exchange. Two countries are considered, namely Australia and New Zealand. Forecasting will be conducted using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model [T. Bollerslev, Modelling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized ARCH model, Rev. Econ. Stat. 72 (1990) 498–505], VARMA-GARCH model [S. Ling, M. McAleer, Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model, Econometric Theory 19 (2003) 280–310], and VARMA-AGARCH model [M. McAleer, S. Hoti, F. Chan, Structure and asymptotic theory for multivariate asymmetric volatility, Econometric Rev., in press]. A rolling window technique is used to forecast 1-day ahead conditional correlations. To evaluate the impact of model specification on conditional correlations forecasts, this paper calculates and compares the correlations between conditional correlations forecasts resulted from the three models. The paper finds the evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect of negative and positive shock on the conditional variance in most pairs of series. However, it suggests that incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric do not contribute to better conditional correlations forecasts.

Financial integration, credit market imperfections and consumption smoothing

Contrary to standard theoretical reasoning, recent empirical research shows that financial integration is associated with higher consumption volatility in developing countries. This paper illustrates how domestic credit market imperfections can alter the standard predictions about the consumption smoothing possibilities under financial autarky and international financial integration. I use a two-country international real business cycle model where the non-traded sector in the small country faces borrowing constraints due to contract enforceability problems. If the international risk-sharing opportunities are non-existent, households can secure themselves against the shocks in the non-traded sector only by adjusting their labor effort, which leads to changes in sectorial output and terms of trade. The deterioration of the terms of trade acts as a dampening effect on consumption, causing it to be less volatile under financial autarky relative to financial integration. Under financial integration, international financial assets provide the insurance against domestic productivity shocks without affecting the relative prices, hence allowing the consumption to react more.

Status Preference, Wealth and Dynamics in the Open Economy

Abstract The implications of status preference in a simple open economy model are investigated in this paper. The open economy is modeled as a continuum of identical representative agents who have preferences over consumption and status. In the paper status is identified as relative wealth, which takes the form of relative holdings international financial assets. A symmetric macroeconomic equilibrium is derived in which status is the source of transitional dynamics for domestic consumption and the current account balance. This result illustrates another way to combine transitional dynamics with interior equilibria in the small open economy Ramsey model with perfect capital mobility. We also show that status preference plays a critical role in influencing the open economy’s adjustment to government expenditure and world interest rate shocks.