International Coffee Prices Research Articles

Indonesian Coffee Exports in The Global Market and The Variables That Affect Them

The aim of this research is to analyse the situation of Indonesian coffee exports in the short and long term and the reasons why Indonesian coffee exports are able to compete in the global market. The data used in this research is secondary data in the form of numerical data with time series data type over a period of 72 months (January 2016 - December 2021). The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) using the dependent variable the volume of Indonesian coffee exports and the independent variables, namely coffee production, exchange rate, inflation, international coffee prices and substitute prices. The research results show that there are no variables that significantly influence Indonesian coffee export volumes in the short term. In the long term, only coffee production has a significant positive effect, and the exchange rate has a significant negative effect, while the other variables have no significant effect. There are several reasons for the demand for coffee exported from Indonesia, namely the type, taste quality, aroma and uniqueness of the coffee produced in Indonesia.

Commodity price volatility and the psychological well‐being of farmers

AbstractWe examine the effects of income uncertainty on mental health in Vietnam. We assess this issue using volatility in the price of coffee, a key export commodity, that exposes small coffee farmers to income uncertainty. Using household panel data collected over 2016–2020, we find an increase in volatility of the international coffee price to be positively associated with psychological distress among coffee farmers. The magnitude is greater for men, and the findings are robust to several checks. These results are further substantiated by corresponding estimates for related health measures and self‐reported happiness. Channels include an increase in mental stress due to pessimistic expectations of future economic well‐being, increased cognitive load and alcohol consumption, and reduced social capital. The results highlight the psychological toll of living with income uncertainty and provide support for the provision of social safety nets that protect farmers from frequent commodity price fluctuations.

Determinants of Coffee Experts of Bandar Lampung Province in the International Market for the Period 2004-2022

This research aims to analyze the influence of Bandar Lampung province's coffee exports in the long and short term and analyze the competitiveness of coffee in the international market. This research is research with a quantitative approach. The data collection technique uses time series data totaling 70 quarters. The analysis technique uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) with prerequisite tests, namely the classical assumption test, stationarity test, cointegration test, ECM test, ECT test, and analysis. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). Research findings show that 1) the rupiah exchange rate influences coffee exports in the long and short term. 2) There is an influence of production on coffee exports in the long and short term. 3) International coffee prices influence coffee exports in the long and short term. 4) Domestic coffee prices influence coffee exports in the long and short term. 5) There is a simultaneous influence of the rupiah exchange rate, production, international coffee prices, and domestic coffee prices on coffee exports, namely 74 percent. 6) The competitiveness of coffee in the international market has a comparative advantage of R>1. The research implies the importance of exchange rate policies, management of production and exports, as well as comparative advantage in international market competition. Continuous improvement in the quality and competitiveness of coffee is crucial for maximizing this potential in the global market.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Ekspor Kopi Indonesia di Masa Covid-19

Coffee is a superior product owned by Indonesia. Indonesian coffee plants have a great ability so it is good to continue to be developed. Indonesia's coffee exports include international trade which was affected by the Covid-19 which was first found in Indonesia in March 2020. The volume of Indonesian coffee exports in 2020 increased but not with the value of Indonesian coffee exports which faced a decline. The object used in this research is coffee beans for both industry and consumption with the Harmonized System (HS) or the international code 090111. The type of data in this study is secondary data. The data collected is time series data with a monthly time series in the range of January 2018 to June 2021. This study uses an analytical method in the form of multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this research show that the volume of Indonesian coffee exports and the corona virus dummy significantly affect the value of Indonesian coffee exports, while the rupiah exchange rate against the US$, Indonesian coffee production, interest rates and international coffee prices do not significantly affect the value of Indonesian coffee exports. Simultaneously, all variables, namely the volume of Indonesian coffee exports, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US$, Indonesian coffee production, interest rates, international coffee prices and the corona virus dummy are variables that have a very significant effect.

The Influence of International Coffee Prices and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Export Volume of Coffee in Central Java

<em>The aim of this study is to determine the influence of the International Coffee Price and Rupiah Exchange Rate toward Volume of Central Java Coffee Exports in period 2015-2019. The data used in this research is quantitative data. This study use secondary data which obtained by collecting data from some sources which relevant to this study such as Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Bank Indonesia, International Coffee Organization and others. Regarding the data period, the data in this study use monthly data of International Coffee Price and Rupiah Exchange Rate toward Volume of Central Java Coffee Exports in period 2015-2019 with total 60 data. The study explored with multiple linier regression statistical analysis, along with descriptive analysis and classical assumption test namely normality test, heteroscedasticity test, multicollinearity test, autocorrelation test, and linearity test. The results showed that partially international coffee prices had a negative and significant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Central Java and the rupiah exchange rate had a negative and insignificant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Central Java. Meanwhile, the international coffee price and the rupiah exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on the volume of coffee exports in Central Java.</em>

Commodity price fluctuations and child malnutrition

In this paper, we empirically examine the potential impact of commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in the 0–5 age category. This is important as adverse shocks that children experience at the time of birth will have an irreversible long-term impact that can adversely affect subsequent human capital formation. Unlike the bulk of the literature in the area that focuses on the impacts of drought-induced income shocks, we focus on changes in income caused by fluctuations in international coffee prices. We thus aim to estimate the potential impacts of international commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in commodity-export-dependent developing countries. To this end, we use the three waves of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey (NPS), together with data on international coffee prices. Our results show that an upward coffee price fluctuation is associated with an improvement in childhood nutritional status in rural Tanzania. This result is robust to the inclusion of household (sibling) fixed effects and data choices. The main result of our paper underlines the importance of international commodity price fluctuations for the wellbeing of communities in commodity-export-dependent countries. In the case of Tanzania, for example, the coffee sector creates direct income for about 400,000 smallholder farmers who produce 90 percent of Tanzania’s coffee, which is mainly produced for export. Thus, if not well-managed, international commodity price fluctuations put a strain on the poverty reduction endeavors of developing countries that depend on exports of one or a few non-oil commodities. The results of the paper also have implications for Goal number 2 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aims to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030.

Building Resilient Value Chains After the Impact of the COVID-19 Disruption: Challenges for the Coffee Sector in Central America

Coffee is an important agricultural sector in Central American, directly employing over 1.2 million people in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Although export revenues from coffee trade have an overall positive effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) of these countries, poverty still prevails. The COVID-19 pandemic has placed additional pressure on the sector which is vulnerable to fluctuations in the international coffee prices, low productivity levels, and climate change effects and damages caused by pest and diseases. This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzes if the sector is resilient to withstand unexpected external shocks such as the pandemic and the hurricanes which impacted the region in the last months of 2020. The capacity to absorb, adapt, and/or transform to these shocks was assessed from the perspective of small-scale coffee farmers, traders, exporters and the entire sector in two time periods—immediately after the start of the pandemic and after the coffee harvest. Although the actors in the coffee value chain absorbed these shocks and could withstand them, adaptation to the disruptions has been challenging for small-scale farmers. Despite the vulnerability to unexpected external shocks, results indicate that a long-term transformation of the sector to build resilience is likely to be slow.

Forecasting Models Based on Fuzzy Logic: An Application on International Coffee Prices

In recent decades, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) has become a competitive, sometimes complementary, approach to classical time series methods such as that of Box-Jenkins. This study has two different purposes: a theoretical purpose, presenting an overview of the fuzzy logic and fuzzy time series models, and a practical purpose, which is to estimate and forecast monthly international coffee prices during the period 2000-2022. Analysing and forecasting the dynamics of coffee prices is of great interest to producers, consumers, and other market actors in managing and making rational decisions. The findings showed that international coffee prices exhibited significant fluctuations, with large increases and decreases influenced mainly by the level of top-ranked producers. The forecasted results revealed that a decrease in prices during the next six months (Jan 2023 to June 2023) is expected. Based on the results, it is also clear that the FTS models are more flexible and can be applied in forecasting time-series variables. At the same time, volatility and, sometimes, the unexpected swingsin coffee prices continue to draw more criticism and raise different issues regarding the roles of the markets and countries in ensuring food security.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Volume of Coffee Export in Central Aceh to The United States

U.S is the largest export destination of Gayo coffee from Central Aceh Regency, Aceh Province because the United States is the largest coffee importer country and has the largest export market potential for Indonesian coffee. Therefore, this study aims to find out the economic factors that affect the volume of coffee export from Central Aceh to the U.S market. Data in this study used time series data during the period 2015-2020. This research is influenced by several independent variables, including Total Coffee Production in Central Aceh (X1), International Coffee Prices (X2), and Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the USDollar (X3). The result of this study is that the International Coffee Price and Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the U.SDollar each significantly affect the Volume of Coffee Export in Central Aceh to the United States. While variable total productionhas no significant effect significantly

The Pass-Through of International Commodity Price Shocks to Producers’ Welfare: Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Farmers

Abstract International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries. In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilized to show that a decrease in international coffee price has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on coffee production as a main source of livelihood. It also results in decreases in on-farm labor supply (particularly male labor supply) and induces reallocation of labor towards non-coffee fields, but has negligible effect on off-farm labor supply. The decline in consumption has significant consequences on child malnutrition: children born in coffee-producing households during low coffee price periods have lower weight-for-age and weight-for-height z-scores than their peers born in non-coffee households.

Coffee price dynamics: an analysis of the retail-international price margin

Abstract We examine the dynamics of the margin between retail and international coffee prices from 1980 to 2018. We find no significant trend in the margin using a robust procedure for estimating a trend. Further, we establish that any deviations in the margin are transitory for the full sample as well as the periods prior to and after the demise of the ICA, but with asymmetric adjustment. One of the reasons for the observed asymmetry could be market concentration in the coffee supply chain at the coffee roasting level, which allows coffee roasters to keep a higher share of the profits.

Analisis Ekspor Kopi Indonesia pada Pasar Internasional

This study aims to analyze the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rates, international coffee prices and coffee production on the value of Indonesian coffee exports in the six countries (United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom). The data used in this study are secondary data in the form of panel data analysis method is a combination of time series and cross section for the period 2009-2018. Data processing is done using Stata 14. The results of this study indicate that the real GDP variable has a positive and significant effect on the value of Indonesia's coffee exports in six destination countries. The exchange rate does not significant effect on the value of Indonesian coffee exports in six destination countries international coffee prices have a positive and significant effect on the value of Indonesian coffee exports in six destination countries. Domestic production has a positive and significant effect on the value of Indonesian coffee exports in six countries the value of the dete coefficient rminasi (R 2 ) is obtained at 0.9474. This means that of the four independent variables namely real GDP, exchange rates, international coffee prices, and production are able to explain the dependent variable namely the value of Indonesian coffee exports of 94.74% and the remaining 5.26% explained by other variables.

The politics of the coffee economy: the conflicts between the republican oligarchies in Taubaté's Convention Project

This paper intends to deal with the approval process of the Taubaté Convention, in 1906, during the Rodrigues Alves government, which sought to solve the crisis generated by the fall in international coffee prices, the country's main export product since at least 1895. Towards the history of the politics, from Rosanvallon (2010), we consider the idea of "history making itself" that deals with how social and political actors understand a situation and how the political scope is permeated in modernity by tensions and conflicts, from which emanate social reflections and transformations, starting from political activity. In this way, we consider that the intervention of the State in the coffee economy, symbolized by the Convention, was not only an economic inevitability, but a political choice, after intense conflicts within the most important oligarchies of the First Republic, especially that of Sao Paulo, the main interested in the coffee valorization, and which conflicted with the President of the Republic, hesitant about the project.

A Network behind Coffee

Small-scale family farmers throughout the world have long struggled with the dilemmas of disparity between international coffee prices and producers' profits. Drawing on a case study conducted on perceptions of coffee productivity in a coffee-producing area of Colombia in 2010-11 (Ocamonte, Santander area), I examine the role of human and non-human actors in completing the journey of coffee from crop to cup.

Commodity Prices and Intra‐Household Labor Allocation

AbstractVolatility in commodity markets poses a distinct risk to farmers in developing countries who rely on cash crop agriculture. We combine a time series of international coffee prices with a long‐running panel on coffee‐growing households in Vietnam to investigate coping mechanisms employed by farmers in a transitioning economy. We find that households cope with lower coffee prices by increasing wage labor of adults, with children and adolescents substituting for adults on the farm. Heterogeneity analysis indicates a stronger substitution pattern among women, ethnic minorities, and households with fewer assets. A variety of robustness checks corroborate these findings. Account of this finding should be taken in formulating and implementing social protection and inclusive growth policies.

Investigation of Coffee Export Dynamics in Indonesia

The aim of this research is to discover the factors that influence the export volume of Indonesian coffee, the response of Indonesian coffee exports to shock variables that affect it, and the contribution of the variables affecting the coffee export to the change of export variables in Indonesia. The study used only secondary data (time series) and the data was collected from The Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and International Coffee Organization (ICO). This study takes a monthly period starting from 2010: M01 to 2015: M12 by using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The result of this research indicates that the data at the first difference is stationer and that there exist cointegration among the variables. While the Granger Causality test shows that there is a two-way relationship between domestic coffee prices and international coffee prices and the occurrence of a direct relationship between the domestic coffee price to the export volume of Indonesian coffee. The Impulse Response Function states that the shock of each variable will produce a sharp shock at the beginning of the period but will reach a stable point at the end of the period. The result of Factor Error Variance Decomposition analysis shows that the shock variables that affect it are still dominated by the variable itself

The effect of commodity price shocks on public lands distribution: Evidence from Colombia

Abstract How do commodity shocks impact the privatization of public lands? This paper examines this question through the lens of the establishment of private property rights over public lands in Colombia, which has had one of the Western Hemisphere's largest public land distribution programs during the last century. Using data on exogenous international coffee price shocks along with data on land suitability for coffee production as determined by agro-climatic conditions and roughly 250,000 public land grants, I find that coffee price increases generate more public land grants in municipalities where land is more suited to coffee production. Additional tests suggest that the findings are driven by the power of organized cultivators to steer the land grant process in their favor. The findings shed light on the role of organized actors in the countryside extending private extension of control over public territory – a phenomenon that has drastically diminished public lands and natural spaces in numerous countries over the last two centuries.

Aid, trade and the post-war recovery of the Rwandan coffee sector

ABSTRACTWe investigate the post-war recovery of the Rwandan coffee sector. First, we look at the recovery of export earnings at the national level and show that the role played by the rise in international coffee prices largely outweighed the one played by domestic policies to boost coffee production and quality. Second, we analyze the subnational variation in the recovery of coffee tree investment and reveal the legacy of armed conflict. In 1999 – five years after the peak of the violence – highly violence-affected regions exhibit significantly lower tree planting and maintenance. Within a decade, the gap is however closed. We discuss the role that positive externalities generated by high-profile public investments in the coffee sector might have played in the catch-up process. We frame this discussion in the wider debate on the nature of the Rwandan State.

El precio mundial del café y su efecto en el precio minorista del café para las cinco ciudades principales de Colombia

This study examines the relationship between the international coffee price and retail coffee prices in the five main cities in Colombia through cointegration tests, Granger causality tests, and impulse-response functions. The evidence points to the existence of a long-term relationship between the retail prices in the five main cities and the world coffee price. This relationship has a unidirectional causality of international coffee prices to retail coffee prices.The magnitude of the transmission of the international global price remains for 36 months or more for most retail coffee prices.

The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks on Public Lands Distribution: Evidence From Colombia

How do income shocks impact the privatization of public lands? This paper examines this question through the lens of the establishment of private property rights over public lands in Colombia, which has had one of the largest public lands distribution programs in the Western Hemisphere during the last century. Using data on exogenous international coffee price shocks along with data on land suitability for coffee production and roughly 125,000 public land grants, I find that coffee price increases differentially spur public land grants in municipalities where coffee suitability is greater. Additional tests suggest that the findings are driven by the power of organized cultivators to steer the land grant process in their favor. Furthermore, commodity price shocks in other organized agricultural sectors similarly yield more public land grants in municipalities with land suitable to those sectors, whereas price shocks in less organized agricultural sectors do not. The findings shed light on the role of organized actors in the countryside extending private extension of control over public territory – a phenomenon that has drastically curtailed the frontier in a host of countries over the last two centuries.