International Climate Change Policy Research Articles

International transfer to reduce global inequality and transboundary pollution

In this paper, we analyze the response of the future world’s carbon stock to a reduction in global inequality among countries, using a framework that allows countries to make their environmental policy strategically. Heterogeneity across countries is related to income, emission technology, and environmental damage costs. We show that reducing global inequality would have a mitigating effect on the path of future world’s carbon stock if the relative number of richly-endowed countries in the subgroup of high-tech countries is greater than that in the subgroup of low-tech countries. The response of the future world’s carbon stock to a reduction in global inequality depends on the relative strength of two forces working in opposite directions: the mitigating force and the aggravating force. The mitigating force is associated with a measure of both richly-endowed/high-technology countries and poorly-endowed/low-technology countries. The aggravating force is associated with a measure of both richly-endowed/low-technology countries and poorly-endowed/high-technology countries. Status-seeking motives among countries act as a multiplier of the effects of the inequality reduction on the future path of the pollution stock. Our results highlight complex interactions to scrutinize in the design of international climate change policies while taking global inequality issues into account.

Martin Weitzman: A Gift That Keeps on Giving

Martin Weitzman: A Gift That Keeps on Giving

Has the international climate regime promoted climate justice? Evidence from Clean Development Mechanism projects in China

ABSTRACT Climate justice has provided a normative justification for international climate change policy, but how it is to be pursued and transmitted in policymaking and policy implementation remains controversial. This study builds a theoretical link between the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an international carbon trading scheme, and local sustainable development in China. This article uses a panel data set of the attributes of 4,429 CDM projects hosted in China from 2004 to 2015, together with socio-economic factors at the provincial level. The study’s findings support the contention that the dual objectives of carbon emission reduction and sustainable development benefits cannot be fulfilled simultaneously, though technology may remedy this trade-off, and the effect of the CDM on local sustainable development varies across Chinese regions. This article helps elucidate the localizing process of climate justice and contributes to justice theories and the literature while aiding public managers and practitioners in international climate governance. Key policy insights Emission reductions for investment countries of CDM were achieved at the expense of local SD benefits in China. CDM exacerbated the differences among Chinese regions in achieving SD goals due to uneven economic and social conditions. Technology innovation can remedy the negative impact of CDM, governments thus should attach importance to technology and use CDM projects to accelerate technological transfers and innovation. Local governments should be encouraged to formulate and use local policies and processes to guide actions on CDM and to ensure their consistence with the prospect of the international mechanism by including the essence of justice. Developing countries should improve their institutional or organizational capacity to promote sustainable social development and to better tackle climate change. Investment of CDM projects or other international mechanisms should expand the budget expenditure, not limited to simple carbon trade, for improving the climate adaptation capacity of developing countries.

Linking solar geoengineering and emissions reductions: strategically resolving an international climate change policy dilemma

ABSTRACT Solar geoengineering appears able to reduce climate change risks but raises controversy, the leading cause of which is the concern that its research, development, and evaluation might inappropriately obstruct efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions (‘mitigation’). Describing how policies could effectively and feasibly manage such possible mitigation obstruction has proven elusive. One option would be to strategically link the international policies of mitigation and solar geoengineering. Here I explore this by disaggregating states based on their relevant characteristics. I propose linkages of mitigation policy with: (1) solar geoengineering research and development, (2) decision-making regarding whether to deploy solar geoengineering, and (3) how to deploy solar geoengineering. Based on the incentives that states would face under them, these linkages are assessed on whether they can be expected to effectively increase mitigation and are seem minimally feasible. Linkages in each of the three categories have potential and could occur sequentially. In the linkage which I believe has the greatest potential, one or more states would proclaim their right to deploy solar geoengineering if and only if they meet their own mitigation goals and the rest of the world insufficiently mitigates, and would promise to forego deployment if either condition is not met. I identify this proposed linkage’s possible challenges, including legitimacy, credibility, optimal size, relations among targets of the linkage, stringency of mitigation goals, and potential counterproductivity. Limitations to this exploration and assessment include the speculative nature, the assumption that states’ preferences regarding mitigation and solar geoengineering are properly related, and the use of noncooperative linkage. Key policy insights Solar geoengineering could reduce the impacts of climate change but is controversial, in large part because of concerns that its research, development, or use might obstruct efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. I explore and assess whether linking international policies of greenhouse gas emissions reductions and solar geoengineering could feasibly and effectively increase emissions reductions. In the linkage that I believe has the greatest potential, one or more states would proclaim their right to deploy solar geoengineering if and only if they meet their emissions reductions goals and other countries do not.

Re-framing non-economic losses to non-economic impacts for effective policymaking: evidence from the Caribbean

ABSTRACT Weather-related natural disasters such as hurricanes are becoming more severe and more frequent due to human-induced climate change. Small Island Developing States are particularly vulnerable to such events. These extreme events have economic impacts on people’s lives but are also associated with non-economic losses (NELs) that are not easily quantifiable. The United Nations Convention Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has tasked the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage to find ways to ‘address’ these losses. While the UNFCCC and literature identify NELs, these remain broad and high-level examples, potentially not applicable in local contexts. Therefore, international climate change policies that are developed to address NELs are at risk of being inadequate and might not address the needs of people affected. This paper addresses this research gap based on interviews with residents from the Caribbean islands Dominica and Barbuda who survived hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017. Responses show that the categorization of NELs under the UNFCCC only partially aligns with those NELs identified by interviewees. Firstly, interviewees do not make a distinction between economic and non-economic losses and secondly the term ‘non-economic loss’ is best expressed as ‘non-economic impact’ in order to encapsulate the full breadth of NELs. Both terms should jointly be considered as fulfilling ‘life-functions’. HIGHLIGHTS The UNFCCC categories are not reflective enough of the broad range of non-economic losses (NEL) that exist. ‘Non-economic loss’ should be re-framed to ‘non-economic impact’ as a loss does not encapsulate the full breadth of losses identified by interviewees Another category for NELs is required as people do not always distinguish between economic and non-economic losses when economic items fulfil a life function The findings are detrimental for effective international and national policymaking

Digital and competing information sources: Impact on environmental concern and prospects for international policy cooperation

The environmental concern of people in industrialized and developing countries is analyzed. Using the 2010–2014 wave of the World Value Survey (WVS), the main purpose of our analysis is to investigate the effect of different information sources on the affective, conative and behavioral components of the environmental concern of people in the developed and developing countries. As independent variables, we use a set of economic data as well as information-related variables, including the internet, mobile phones, TV, radio and newspapers. The digital variables of the internet and mobile phones turn out to have a highly significant impact on environmental concern so that digital modernization of countries should have pro-environmental impacts as a side effect of internet and mobile phone services expansion. With the developing countries catching-up vis-à-vis the OECD countries in the field of mobile phone density and internet density, respectively, one may expect better prospects for cooperation between developed and developing countries since attitudes/the environmental concern of people in developed and developing countries will become more similar. For international green cooperation and climate change policy progress, the new findings presented herein are crucial.

Inclusion of forestry offsets in emission trading schemes: insights from global experts

Emissions trading schemes (ETSs) have been a central component of international climate change policies, as a carbon pricing tool to achieve emissions reduction targets. Forest carbon offset credits have been leveraged in many ETSs to efficiently meet emission reduction targets, yet there is little knowledge about the perceptions, experiences, and challenges associated with the forest carbon offsetting in existing and pilot ETS. Given that the future inclusion of forest carbon offset in ETS management activities and policies will require strong support and acceptability among the institutions and experts involved in ETS, this study explores the experiences and lessons learned with 16 globally engaging experts representing major existing ETSs (North America, Europe, and New Zealand) and Chinese pilot ETSs towards the inclusion of forestry offsets, major concerns and challenges with existing implementation models. Findings revealed that many respondents particularly from North America, New Zealand, and Chinese pilot systems portrayed positive attitudes toward the inclusion of forestry carbon offsets and its role in contributing to a viable ETS, while European experts were not supportive. Respondents cited leakage, permanence, additionality, and monitoring design features as the major challenges and concerns that inhibit the expansion and inclusion of forest carbon offsetting. Respondents from Chinese pilot schemes referenced a unique set of challenges related to implementation, including the increasing cost of afforestation and reforestation projects, the uncertainty in the future supply and demand for their national Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) scheme and landowner engagement. Existing and future ETSs should learn from and address the challenges experienced by global experts and carbon pricing mechanisms to design, evaluate, or enhance their forest carbon offset programs for an effective and viable system that successfully contributes to GHG mitigation practices globally. We recommend inclusion of forest carbon offsets at the early stages of ETS improves the perceptions and experience of policy makers and practitioners toward the success and potential of forestry offsets in ETS ensuring familiarity and confidence in the mechanism.

Focusing climate negotiations on a uniform common commitment can promote cooperation

International cooperation on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, disarmament, or free trade needs to be negotiated. The success of such negotiations depends on how they are designed. In the context of international climate change policy, it has been proposed [e.g., M. L. Weitzman J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 1, 29-49 (2014)] that shifting the negotiation focus to a uniform common commitment (such as a uniform minimum carbon price) would lead to more ambitious cooperation. Yet, a proof-of-concept for this important claim is lacking. Based on game theoretical analyses, we present experimental evidence that strongly supports this conjecture. In our study, human subjects negotiate contributions to a public good. Subjects differ in their benefits and costs of cooperation. Participation in the negotiations and all commitments are voluntary. We consider treatments in which agreements are enforceable, and treatments in which they have to be self-enforcing. In both situations, negotiating a uniform common commitment is more successful in promoting cooperation than negotiating individual commitments (as in the Paris Agreement) and complex common commitments that tailor the commitment to the specific situation of each party (as attempted with the Kyoto Protocol). Furthermore, as suggested by our model, a uniform common commitment benefits most from being enforced.

EU-Canada’s strategic partnership: broadening relations and mutual interests

The strengthening of EU-Canada relations in the last years has revealed mutual interests in several policy fields. In times of increasingly tense relations with the US and weakening multilateralism, deepened and broadened bilateral cooperation is of particular importance for both, Canada and the EU. In order to better understand mutual interests and similar challenges, this article explores cooperation in the two different policy fields of foreign and security policy and climate change policy. This analysis of the current situation in international security and climate change policy points out key areas in which closer EU-Canada cooperation could be brought to bear fruits not only for their bilateral relationship but also the alliance for multilateralism in the short run and for years to come.

Evaluation of Socio-Economic Impacts of Deforestation in Edo State, Nigeria

Deforestation creates imbalances in weather patterns, making the weather drier and hotter, consequently leading to increased drought and desertification, coastal flooding, crop failures, and dislodging major vegetation regimes. The study evaluates the socio-economic impacts of deforestation in Edo State. The study utilized ArcGis digitizing tool to determine the tree population and downscale the spatial datasets using defined boundary conditions. Signal 2.0 was used to establish the relationship of linearity between the forest and economic loss over the region using R-square. Results revealed that as the rate of deforestation in Edo state rose from 4100ha in the year 1990 to 14100ha in 2016, there was also a gradual increase in economic loss from 0.7 to 10.9 billion nairas in 2016. It was also observed that the relationship of linearity between deforestation and economic loss in Edo State shows a strong relationship at an R-square of 0.97. Therefore, there is an urgent need to take action towards ameliorating new Climate Change CC problems by exploring and protecting the local values of forests in order to improve livelihood sustainability. Lowering CO2 emissions is a central global focus through the International Climate Change Policy. About a 5th of emissions globally are caused primarily by deforestation. Reducing CO2 emissions is highly dependent on the reduction of forest loss which can also contribute significantly to the low-cost mitigation portfolio.

Evolving climate change policy and museums

ABSTRACT This brief covers international climate change policies and actions spanning the last 30 years, and traces how they relate to museums’ activities. It also presents opportunities for museums to incorporate climate change into their work in order to accelerate their contributions to climate action. Estimates of the number of museums range from 55,000 to 80,000. Collectively, they have the potential to make a greater contribution to climate action than a small country, both through educational and research programmes, and through their use of resources. As institutions concerned with heritage, museums have key roles to play in addressing the defining challenge of our time, as well as an obligation to society to deliver on those roles.

Accounting for risk transitions of ocean ecosystems under climate change: an economic justification for more ambitious policy responses

Despite the ocean’s role in regulating the climate and providing ecosystem services, the importance of the ocean has only recently gained appropriate attention in the context of international climate change policies. This concerns the impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems and the role of the ocean in climate change mitigation. Since impacts can be cumulative, future climate risks for the ocean and dependent human communities emphasize the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we make the case that assessing these impacts and their consequences for human welfare would provide not only an ethical but also an economic justification for strengthening policy responses to a substantial degree.

Multi-level learning in the governance of adaptation to climate change: the case of Bolivia’s water sector

ABSTRACT The efforts of Bolivia’s water sector to adapt to climate change include the mainstreaming of adaptation in water policy instruments and broad capacity building processes supported by climate funds and international cooperation. These sector-wide adaptation experiences in the country present important learning challenges across different governance levels. This paper analyzes multi-level learning in the governance of adaptation taking place in the water sector in Bolivia, by focusing on changes in the cognitive, normative and relational domains of learning. The analysis is guided by three questions: (i) Which institutional arrangements enable multi-level learning in the governance of adaptation in Bolivia’s water sector? (ii) What are the cognitive, normative and relational dimensions of learning in these arrangements? (iii) What are the implications of multi-level learning for shaping desired outcomes in the governance of adaptation? The case contributes to understanding multi-level learning processes in the governance of adaptation, including the role of national and international climate change policy instruments in these. In addition, the study provides methodological insights for assessing multi-level learning.

Comparative Analysis of UK and Lithuanian Political Institutional Communicative Climate Change Discourses

The aim of this paper is to analyse the ways how climate change related risks are being constructed in political institutional discourses. We draw upon the political communicative texts, i.e. texts prepared by governmental authorities, from the pre- and post-Paris agreement period, i.e. 2015–2016. Our empirical analysis is guided by the relational theory of risk, theory of discursive institutionalism, critical discourse analysis, notions of interdiscursivity and interpretive repertoires. The main research questions are the following: What are the threats typically associated with climate change (source of risk)?; What are the objects-at-risk typically spoken of in political communicative discourses?; How are the relations of the risk source and object-at-risk discursively constructed (e.g. vulnerability, resilience, etc.)?; What is the overall ‘repertoire’ of typical climate change related risks as discursively constructed in political communicative texts? To answer the research questions, Lithuania and United Kingdom are taken for cross-national comparison. UK is regarded as a leader in international and domestic climate change policy, whereas climate change policies are treated instrumentally in Lithuania. Both Lithuania and UK, as EU member states, follow the general EU climate change policy. Yet because of differences in public attitudes and other socio-political contexts, the effectiveness of climate change policies is different. Contrasting the two member states and looking for underlying discursive practices, that serve as grounds for climate action, bring new scientific insights. The analysis of the sampled texts is conducted using NVivo.

Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.

Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.

Linking Solar Geoengineering and Emissions Reductions: Strategically Resolving an International Climate Change Policy Dilemma

Solar geoengineering may be able to significantly reduce climate-change risks, but raises sharp controversy, the leading cause of which is the concern that its research, development, or use might inappropriately displace efforts to cut greenhouse-gas emissions (“mitigation”). Although well-crafted policies could in principle manage such possible mitigation displacement, describing how they could do so effectively and feasibly has proven elusive. A possible response would be to strategically link the international policies of mitigation and solar geoengineering. Here we explore and expand on this idea, including by disaggregating states based on their relevant characteristics (including willingness to increase mitigation, willingness to implement solar geoengineering contrary to any international consensus, and their desired intensity of solar geoengineering), the incentives that various policy linkages could foster, and considering the processes of developing linkages. We explore potential linkage of mitigation with the research and development of solar geoengineering, with decision-making regarding whether to deploy; and with that regarding how to deploy. These potential linkages are assessed on whether they could effectively reduce mitigation displacement (if not increase mitigation), appear feasible, and would not be inconsistent with widely-held norms. In the linkage mechanism with the greatest apparent potential, one or more states would proclaim their right to deploy solar geoengineering if they meet their own mitigation targets and the rest of the world insufficiently mitigates. We identify possible challenges, including legitimacy, credibility, optimal size, relations among nonmembers, mitigation targets, and complexity, none of which seem insurmountable.

Arbitral Institutions and the Enforcement of Climate Change Obligations for the Benefit of all Stakeholders: The Role of ICSID

Abstract In 2015, States concluded the landmark Paris Agreement, which committed to a long-term goal of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. The Paris Agreement galvanises all signatory nations in a common cause — combating climate change and adapting to and investigating its effects, and with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. As such, it charts a new course in the global climate effort. The goals of the Paris Agreement will only be achieved through massive investment in pursuit of a common objective. According to the International Finance Corporation, an estimated US$90 trillion investment is required to implement the Paris Agreement. The current regime of international investment agreements (IIAs) provides an invaluable opportunity to promote the investment required to achieve the Paris Agreement objectives, including mitigation, adaptation and transition from fossil fuels. However, users must take care to ensure that investment is, in fact, protected and encouraged, and to maintain critical progress in promoting international climate change policy. ICSID is one of the five arms of the World Bank Group, which recognises that “[c]limate change is a threat to the core mission of the World Bank Group”. The ICSID Convention is also designed to promote international private investment. As such, ICSID sits at an important nexus in this discussion. This article: (i) provides an overview of several influential arbitration decisions relating to international environmental disputes, and the way in which the existing climate change regime uses arbitration as a dispute resolution mechanism; (ii) examines the evolution of investment treaties, prior decisions, especially in the field of renewable energy, and the tools available within IIAs for tribunals to promote the Paris Agreement objectives; (iii) discusses what arbitral institutions have done to date, in terms of tools, procedures, rules and other mechanisms, to promote climate change expertise and facilitate the resolution of disputes in a way that is consistent with climate change concerns; and (iv) considers ICSID's position as an arm of the World Bank, particularly in light of the WBG Climate Change Action Plan commitment to scaling up climate action and aligning internal processes with intentionally agreed climate change goals.

Flexible options to provide energy for capturing carbon dioxide in coal-fired power plants under the Clean Development Mechanism

Operators of coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) can provide energy for carbon dioxide (CO2) capture by increasing coal input (option i) or reducing electricity output (option ii). Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), does a flexible option exist in the future to provide energy for capturing CO2? In this study, we use a representative coal-fired power plant in China (600 MW) as a case study to assess the options to be implemented and the corresponding economic performance and emission reductions of coal-fired power plants with CCS. Both Monte Carlo simulation and the net present value (NPV) methods are used in this study. The results show that the flexible options yield an average NPV that is 57.36 and 48.07 million Chinese Yuan more than the net present values of option i and option ii, respectively, during three crediting periods. Additionally, the implementation of flexible options can improve the emission reduction effect in coal-fired power plants with CCS and promote the optimization of power systems. The priority for expanding the positive effects of flexible options is for international climate change policy negotiators and policymakers to formulate stricter international emission reduction policies with a high certified emission reduction price. In addition, a good communication and coordination mechanism between the coal-fired power plants and the administration of the power system are required to ensure the efficient implementation of flexible options.

Getting forest science to policy discourse: a theory-based outcome assessment of a global research programme

This paper presents an assessment of the outcomes of research carried out under the Sustainable Wetlands Adaptation and Mitigation Programme (SWAMP). SWAMP aimed to inform national and international climate policy and practice by developing tools and methods to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon stocks and flux in tropical wetlands due to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). This assessment modelled SWAMP's intended outcomes as a theory of change (ToC) and used qualitative methods to test the ToC and to evaluate whether and how the outcomes were achieved. It found that SWAMP research has helped raise academic and policy interest in wetlands, mangroves and peat forests as carbon reservoirs, and that SWAMP's recommendations informed policy discourse and supported the development of technical guidance and strategies of sustainable wetland management. However, the research had a weak effect on international and Indonesian climate change policies compared to other factors. The Paris Agreement and Indonesia's nationally determined contribution (NDC) do not include the quantification of carbon stocks from mangroves, which are not all located in the forest areas. Knowledge translation was achieved through a variety of mechanisms, with direct engagement identified as particularly important. The outcome evaluation approach proved useful as a way of conceptualising and organising the analysis of research impact on development outcomes.

Behind success stories: goal attainment in global trade and climate negotiations

How successful are transnational advocates? If they are successful, is this due to their advocacy efforts or because of a favourable policy context? This paper examines the policy success of transnational advocates. In doing so, it focuses on the positions interest groups adopt, the strategies they develop, and how these interact with the context of specific policy issues. Based on 467 interviews with non-state actors who were involved in 17 transnational policy issues in the fields of international climate change and trade policy, I assess the success of individual advocates by comparing the final policy outcome of each issue with the advocated policy positions. The findings demonstrate that it is not so much the strategies that lobbyists develop that explain success at global diplomatic conferences, but rather the degree of preferred policy change and whether these demands for change are endorsed by the groups’ national governments.