International Capital Mobility Research Articles

Strategic capital taxation, tradable emission permits and global pollution

AbstractThe paper considers a two‐country model with international capital mobility and production‐generated cross‐border pollution. It examines the effectiveness of alternative policy combinations consisting of capital taxes and nationally or internationally tradable emissions permits in reducing global pollution. The internationally mobile capital is taxed according to three different rules, namely, capital tax exemptions, capital tax credits and capital tax deductions. Our key result is that, under certain conditions, the lowest Nash equilibrium level of global pollution is achieved with a policy mix combining either capital tax exemptions or capital tax credits with internationally, rather than nationally, tradable emission permits.

The Saving-investment Relationship Revisited: New Evidence from Regime-switching Cointegration Approach

This paper exploits the regime-switching threshold cointegration approach to elicit the dynamics in the saving-investment relationship and capital mobility in India. Empirical results offer key insights into the threshold cointegration between the saving and investment rates. We find that the adjustment in investment rate in the upper regime is faster than in the lower regime, indicating the higher mobility of capital in the upper regime. Further, results reveal the absence of firm evidence of long-run vs. short-run asymmetries between saving and investment rates. However, results suggest that cumulative positive and negative sums of saving rates affect investment rates. We have made adjustments to cyclical and trend patterns in our data using Hamilton's (2018) filter and have produced robust results with regard to asymmetric cointegration. The posterior estimation results suggest that a downward trend in the saving rates substantially impacts the investment rates, and widening the gap between saving and investment rates facilitates huge mobility of international capital in the long run.

Economic freedom, financial development and the determinants of fraud and scandal: The United Kingdom, 1900–2010

The paper argues that the incidence of financial fraud and scandals has systemic macro-economic determinants. While not denying organisation specific causes, short-run triggering events, and key players’ motivations, it shows that the extent of fraud and the number of financial scandals depend on the opportunities created by the financial system’s evolution. Using archival and quantitative evidence from the United Kingdom, it specifies aggregate changes in the incidence of fraud and scandal between 1900 and 2010. The evidence shows that economic freedom, including the degree of financial development, the availability of credit, the relative importance of the financial sector, international capital mobility and secrecy, and banking stability, contribute to the prevalence of fraud and scandal. Financial repression explains a generalised reduction in a 25-year period after the Second World War. Conversely, economic liberalisation from 1979 onwards has increased the incidence of fraud and financial scandal.

Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows in the EU

This paper uses new statistical estimates to test for effects of economic integration in Europe on international capital mobility. In a world of perfect capital mobility, one should experience little or not statistically significant relationship between the amount of domestic savings and domestic investment. Alternatively, under less-than perfect capital international mobility, diverse portfolio preferences and country-specific transactions costs would create impediments for long-term capital flows. This would result in direct connection between any changes (increases) in domestic savings and domestic investment. According to empirical results of a similar empirical study by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) for developed countries (including some of current EU members included in this investigation), there were portfolio preferences and institutional rigidities, which resulted in almost equal corresponding differences in domestic investment rates driven by domestic savings rates among major industrial countries.
 The current study tests for capital mobility in the EU Member States (2010-2020) discussing compatibility of findings with previous evidence found in the literature (Feldstein and Horioka 1980). It also addresses the optimal national savings policy, tax incidence and concludes on capital formation in the EU.

An Appraisal of Alternative Ricardian Trade Models

ABSTRACT A prevalent feature of the global economy is the relevance of trade in intermediates due to production fragmentation. This phenomenon has led to the revival and development of trade models that include inter-industry relations. A wide variety of Ricardian trade models cope with this feature. In this article, we develop a Sraffa-Leontief framework to compare and appraise these models. The models are distinguished by their underlying theory of distribution and the assumptions about the degree of international capital mobility. We compare the predicted effects on employment and the distribution of domestic income. Furthermore, we assess if the model assures the existence of a shared trade pattern, i.e., if it can ensure that all countries engage in trade (as the principle of comparative advantage predicts). It follows from our appraisal that it is not warranted that all countries can engage in international trade, even if they want to. In other words, if allowed to work, the ‘strong balancing forces’ may not make a country internationally competitive in a world with production fragmentation.

New estimates of international capital mobility for select OECD economies

This paper offers a new perspective on the meaning and measure of international capital mobility (ICM), contributing to the literature in several ways. Using an extended international loanable funds framework, it reconciles traditional interest parity (IP) measures of ICM with the original Feldstein-Horioka measure. It proposes a novel macro-oriented approach to estimate the degree of ICM. Using quarterly data for the period 2000–2020 for select OECD economies, the study found that ICM is near perfect when capital inflows finance private investment, government spending, and consumption. Interest differentials, though significant, contribute minimally to explaining capital inflows, consistent with very high ICM for these economies.

Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission in Pakistan


 
 
 
 
 The exchange rate is one of the most important channels of monetary policy transmission to the real economy. However, the effectiveness of this channel depends on the extent of exchange rate flexibility, degree of international capital mobility, and inflation expectations. Like other emerging economies, Pakistan is typically characterised by weak fiscal and monetary institutions, currency substitution, liability dollarisation, and vulnerability to sudden stops of capital flows. These features compel emerging economies to follow managed exchange rate regimes by restricting the mobility of capital flow. All these factors weaken the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission. This study estimates the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel in monetary policy transmission in Pakistan and explores the impact of exchange rate regimes on the channel’s strength. The study benefitted from the widely used structural VARs methodology and found that the exchange rate channel is less effective in transmitting monetary policy shocks to the real economy. In recent years, however, greater flexibility in the exchange rate has improved the effectiveness of this channel.
 
 
 
 

Growth and optimal policies in an R&D‐growth model with imperfect international capital mobility

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the effects of international capital mobility on innovation, growth, and optimal growth policies in a small open economy with R&D‐driven growth. Households can borrow funds from an imperfect international capital market to finance their investment in R&D firms. We show that the economy can reach a higher growth rate if international capital is more mobile. This result is consistent with recent empirical findings. Moreover, we show that the common growth‐enhancing policies, such as patent protection and the R&D subsidies, have an additional negative welfare effect when households can access the international capital market. Accordingly, the optimal patent protection and R&D subsidy should be smaller when the degree of international capital mobility is higher.

Structural change, productive development, and capital flows: does financial “bonanza” cause premature deindustrialization?

AbstractRecent contributions to the literature on industrialization and development have confirmed that manufacturing continues to play a key role as a driver of economic development. As a corollary, these contributions highlight the importance of premature industrialization as a barrier to economic development and as one of the main sources of the middle-income trap. In this paper, we analyze the factors that may have hindered industrial development in the past four decades. In particular, we focus on the role of (non-Foreign Direct Investment) net capital inflows as a potential source of premature deindustrialization. We consider a sample of 36 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2017, with major emphasis on the case of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) in the context of increasing financial integration. We show that periods of abundant capital inflows may have caused a significant contraction of manufacturing share to employment and GDP, as well as the decrease of the economic complexity index. We also show that the phenomena of “perverse” structural changes are significantly more relevant in EDE countries than in advanced ones and that they may similarly occur across EDE countries, regardless of structural differences in the way manufacturing contributed to their development. Based on such evidence, we conclude with some policy suggestions highlighting capital controls and external macroprudential measures taming international capital mobility as useful policy tools for promoting long-run productive development on top of strengthening (short-term) financial and macroeconomic stability.

MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy

What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualise them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.

The decoupling between labour compensation and productivity in high‐income countries: Why is the nexus broken?

AbstractDuring the last decades, mature economies have tended to experience a divergence between labour compensation and productivity growth. Interpretations of this trend are still under debate. Our article aims at contributing to a sound, evidence‐based understanding. We estimate the magnitude of this decoupling for a panel of 22 high‐income economies (1970–2018) and empirically assess the role of a variety of factors. After providing evidence that casts doubt on the impact of technical change, we adopt a ‘political economy’ standpoint and focus on the structural effects on real compensation growth of several macroeconomic and institutional dimensions. Our findings indicate that labour market slack and the weakening of pro‐labour institutions have acted as important wage‐squeezing factors. A negative effect is also found for trade openness and international capital mobility, while most financialization variables are not significant. The robustness of our results is supported by a range of tests and specifications.

Taking Money Seriously and Putting it Back into the Feldstein-Horioka Saving-Investment Nexus

Theoretically based on national income accounting identities, the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis downplays, if not totally ignores, the influence of monetary factors on international capital mobility. Recognizing the historical development of economics and the institutional arrangements of the exchange rate regime, this study extends the theoretical framework by integrating the balance of payments and national income accounting equations to show that domestic investment is related to not only domestic saving and international capital flows but also changes in the domestic money supply and credit creation. Panel data regression results for the original Feldstein-Horioka sample – 20 OECD countries over the years 1960 – 1974 – empirically support the theory. In contrast to the Feldstein-Horioka findings, a lower saving-investment coefficient is found, suggesting higher international capital mobility though still with some degree of home bias. Overall, this study illustrates the importance of money, history of economics and economic institutions in understanding and resolving the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle.

Customs Union, Wage Inequality and Welfare in General Equilibrium

The article attempts to consider the impact of a customs union formed between two small countries embedded in the global economy and trading in intermediates, in terms of a general equilibrium framework. It shows that with such a union both countries will gain, although there will be asymmetric effect on wage inequality. However, with higher capital stock the significance of the formation of customs union will be undermined. It also shows that perfect international capital mobility will lead to finite changes in the economy, shutting down the less capital intensive unskilled export sector in each country, which in turn makes the bilateral union irrelevant. Further tariff reduction will increase inequality in both countries. We have also considered the welfare effects of formation of customs union in the form of tariff cut and such a tariff reduction unequivocally improves welfare of the customs union irrespective of small country and large country assumptions, without any intra-union income transfer. JEL Codes: F02, F11, F55, F68

FELDSTEİN-HORİOKA BULMACASI VE TÜRKİYE'DEN KANITLAR

Ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesinin artırılmasında yatırımların ve tasarrufların rolü büyüktür. Yatırımların kaynağının nereden sağlandığı konusu literatürde birçok başlıkla araştırılmıştır. Feldstein ve Horioka tasarruf ve yatırım ilişkisini uluslararası sermaye hareketleri çerçevesinde incelemiştir. Çalışmada sermaye hareketlerinin serbest olması durumunda yurtiçi tasarruflarla yatırım arasında düşük düzeyde bir ilişkinin olacağı vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada Feldstein-Horioka bulmacası olarak literatürde geçen hipotezin varlığı Türkiye için araştırılmıştır. 1990-2019 yıllarını kapsayan çalışmada yapılan FMOLS-DOLS sonuçları doğrultusunda uluslararası tasarrufların yatırımları daha fazla etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışmada yapılan Frekans Dağılım nedensellik analizi sonucunda tasarruf değişkeninden yatırıma doğru orta ve uzun dönemde bir ilişkinin olduğu, yatırım değişkeninden tasarruf değişkenine doğru ise orta dönemde bir ilişkinin olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Corruption, FDI, and Trade Freedom Relationship Between Turkey and Latin American Countries

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been always associated with a high level of trade openness and freedom environment, and with a lower incidence of institutional corruption. Because it is assumed that a high level of international capital mobility makes foreign investors more cautious when there is a fluctuation in political stability and institutional transparency. Most American countries (except Canada and the USA) have been always related to a lack of transparency in their institutional and bureaucratic procedures, which conduct to important levels of corruption and in consequence, to other serious issues such as prominent level of violence, or even the inequality phenomena. This study investigates whether the variables of corruption indices, trade openness and inflation rates have positive or negative effects on FDI between Turkey and American countries. For analyzing this econometric model, it was gathered information from OECD, COMTRADE, TUIK, Heritage Foundation, UNCTAD, and the World Bank Database. The observed data correspond to a decade (2005-2014) and were only taken a sample of 14 American countries.The empirical results of the present study revealed that there is a positive correlation between the trade openness index and FDI; and, it was found a positive correlation between corruption index, inflation, and FDI. The increase in the corruption index causes a 41% increase in FDI inflow.

The Dismantling of Capital Controls after Bretton Woods and Latin American Productivity

The recent economic history of global integration has been characterized by a dismantling of capital controls and increased foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper explores the role of impediments to international capital mobility, foreign direct investment, and technology diffusion in shaping Latin American economic growth. First, the paper summarizes and quantifies the effects of the Bretton Woods international financial system in Latin America. Then, I study the consequences of capital controls--and their dismantling--on FDI and trade-induced technological advancements and their role in shaping local development, especially in the 1990s after the implementation of several trade liberalization policies.

Financial Structure and Instability in an Open Economy

The subprime loan mortgage crisis has revived scholarly interest in Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis. The related mathematical models present two types of Minskian financial structures, which we identify as the lenders’ risk type (LR) and the hedge, speculative and Ponzi type (HSP). We construct macrodynamic models in a fixed and floating exchange rate system which considers both the LR and HSP financial structures. We examine the effects of international capital mobility and international lenders’ risks and demonstrate the significance of the LR and HSP financial structures in the fixed and floating exchange rate system. We emphasize the significance of stable financial structures in order to stabilize dynamic systems in an open economy.

Fragmentation of Production, Comparative Advantage, and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theory

ABSTRACT This article analyses the so-called trade-in-tasks models based upon the Heckscher-Ohlin theory recently developed to explain the process of fragmentation. These models continue to rely on comparative advantage to determine trade patterns. The notion of comparative advantage rests on the basic assumption that countries trade only finished goods whose production is domestically integrated. However, since fragmentation implies an increasing trade in intermediate and capital goods and domestic disintegration of production, it does not seem easy to see how comparative advantage continues to work. We identify two crucial assumptions behind these models that allow the principle to work: first, there is a strict distinction between intermediate and finished goods; second, intermediate inputs do not enter the production of themselves. One could relax these assumptions and consider circular production instead. Even so, we identify a third assumption: the neglect of payment of an interest rate over the value of inputs advanced in production. We relax this assumption and consider international capital mobility to show that comparative advantage fails to predict the trade pattern. Therefore, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is incompetent to explain fragmentation and modern trade patterns.

The capital flight quadrilemma: Democratic trade-offs and international investment

ABSTRACT This article argues that capital flight of real investment presents governments with a quadrilemma. First, governments can tailor their policies to attract investors – but this is incompatible with a whole range of alternative policy choices. Second, they can simply accept capital flight – but this is incompatible with a robust capital stock and tax base. Third, they can harmonize its taxes and regulations with other states – but this is incompatible with international independence. Fourth, they can impose capital controls – but this is incompatible with international capital mobility. These incompatibilities make up four different goals, the value of which are described. Strategies may be mixed, but the pursuit of any three goals must always come at the expense of the fourth.

An Assessment of Samuelson’s Ricardo-Sraffa Trade Model

This article assesses Samuelson’s attempt to introduce Sraffa’s framework of “production of commodities by means of commodities” to the neoclassical-Ricardo trade model. We slightly modify Samuelson’s model to consider, on the one hand, more commodities than countries and, on the other hand, a positive rate of interest and full international (finance) capital mobility. In the first case, comparative advantage is unable to predict the direction of trade. In the second case, the principle does not warrant the existence of trade. In conclusion, a closer look at the neoclassical-Ricardian trade model through the lenses of Sraffa casts more doubts than certainties of the comparative advantage theory.