International Asset Pricing Model Research Articles

Chinese consumption shocks and U.S. equity returns

Motivated by the growing importance of the Chinese domestic economy for the global economic condition, we test whether the consumption risk of China matters for the cross-section of U.S. equity returns. We find that the two-factor international asset-pricing model with both U.S. and Chinese consumption risk explains 40% of the cross-sectional variation in U.S. equity returns. We also find a sizable risk premium of 7.08% per annum. This finding is robust to different estimation approaches, portfolio groups, controlling for other equity factors, and using individual equities. For economic mechanism, we find that it is the discount rate channel that is related to investors’ risk aversion, sentiment, and economic uncertainty through which Chinese consumption matters for the U.S. equity returns. Also, the result is not entirely driven by Chinese investors participating in the U.S. Overall, we present equity market-based novel evidence of the importance of Chinese macro fundamentals for the U.S.

The Risk Premium on Mediterranean Emerging Stock Markets

In this paper, we test a conditional version of the international asset pricing model, using the multivariate GARCH process of De Santis and Gerard (1998). The model is estimated, over the period January 1997-March 2007, for five markets: the global, USA, Egyptian, Turkish and Israeli markets. We analyze a version of the ICAPM with a constant market risk price as well as the exchange rate risk price, while the conditional covariances vary over time. The results show that risk premium vary significantly across markets and over time, for all stock markets the contribution of currency premium to the total risk premium is economically significant. This study confirms that currency risk is a significant factor in the international valuation of financial assets.

International Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models

We propose a new methodology for predicting international stock returns and evaluating international asset pricing models. Our Bayesian framework performs probabilistic selection of predictors and factors that can shift at multiple unknown structural break dates. The approach generates significantly more accurate forecasts of international stock returns than a range of popular models that are economically meaningful for a risk-averse mean-variance investor. Allowing for regime-specific variable selection reduces considerably the international diversification of an unhedged U.S. investor's portfolio. Our framework improves the ability of international asset pricing models to explain the cross-section of expected returns.

A Consumption-Based Identification of Global Economic Uncertainty

This paper identifies a global uncertainty factor by estimating an international asset pricing model featuring macroeconomic uncertainty with long-run risk factors. The global factor captures the time-varying fluctuations of common stochastic volatilities of consumption and dividend growths for countries, and reflects uncertainty in that it generates the highest volatility of volatility in transition period. The model quantitatively explains key asset pricing moments, and the estimated factor sharply increases during major international adverse events. Shocks to our global economic uncertainty factor significantly account for the likelihood of key economic and financial events, and outperforms existing measures of economic and financial uncertainties.

The Functional Stochastic Discount Factor

By assuming that the stochastic discount factor (SDF) [Formula: see text] is a proper but unspecified function of state variables [Formula: see text], we show that this function [Formula: see text] must solve a simple second-order linear differential equation specified by state variables’ risk-neutral dynamics. Therefore, this assumption determines the most general possible SDFs and associated preferences, that are consistent with the given risk-neutral state dynamics and interest rate. A consistent SDF then implies the corresponding state dynamics in the data-generating measure. Our approach offers novel flexibilities to extend several popular asset pricing frameworks: affine and quadratic interest rate models, as well as models built on linearity-generating processes. We illustrate the approach with an international asset pricing model in which (i) interest rate has an affine dynamic term structure and (ii) the forward premium puzzle is consistent with consumption-risk rationales; the two asset pricing features previously deemed conceptually incompatible.

The Term Structures of Coentropy in International Financial Markets

We propose a new entropy-based correlation measure (coentropy) to evaluate the performance of international asset pricing models. Coentropy captures the codependence of two random variables beyond normality. We document that the coentropy of international stochastic discount factors (SDFs) can be decomposed into a series of entropy-based correlations of permanent and transitory components of the SDFs. We employ the cross section of G-10 countries to obtain model-free estimates of all the components of coentropy at various horizons and we show that the generalization of the long-run risk model featuring two predictable components of consumption growth rates, global disasters, and recursive preferences can account for the composition of codependence at all horizons. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.

The Functional Stochastic Discount Factor

By assuming that stochastic discount factor (SDF) M be a proper but unspecified function of state variables X, we show that this function M(X) must solve a simple second-order linear differential equation specified by state variables' risk-neutral dynamics. Therefore, this assumption determines the most general possible SDFs and associated preferences that are consistent with the given risk-neutral state dynamics and interest rate. From a consistent SDF solution then follow the corresponding state dynamics in the data-generating measure. Our approach offers novel flexibilities to extend several popular asset pricing frameworks: affine and quadratic interest rate models, as well as models built on linearity-generating processes. We illustrate the approach with an international asset pricing model in which (i) interest rate has an affine dynamic term structure and (ii) the forward premium puzzle is consistent with consumption-risk rationales, the two asset pricing features previously deemed conceptually incompatible.

How foreign investors influence stock markets? The Saudi Arabian experience

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the impact of foreign institutional investors on valuation, liquidity and volatility in the Saudi stock exchange for the post-liberalization period. Saudi regulators allowed the foreign investment community to invest in the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) in June 2015. Firstly, the paper finds a positive change in abnormal returns in the three-year post-liberalization period compared to the three-year non-liberalization period (pre-period), suggesting that the entry of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) benefited security valuation. Further, the higher valuation result is consistent with the prediction of standard international asset pricing models, that stock market liberalization may reduce the liberalizing country’s cost of equity capital by allowing for risk sharing between domestic and foreign agents. Secondly, contrary to the regulators/policymakers’ intention and empirical evidence, the liquidity proxies document mixed evidence. Lastly, this study finds mixed evidence in the price volatility measures. However, the volatility and liquidity finding suggests that the presence of foreign institutional investors is not the source of excess volatility or high turnover on local bourses. Overall, the evidence, on average, shows some signs of improvement for different market efficiency measures during the post-liberalization period compared to the pre-liberalization period. The less than expected improvement in Tadawul during the post-period implies that the Saudi financial regulator’s incentive of opening the TASI for QFIIs coincides with economic vulnerabilities for the Kingdom, stringent QFIIs regulation and weak investor protection laws.

Cross-listing of real estate investment trusts (REITs)

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the common stock price reaction and the changes to the risk exposure of the cross-listing for real estate investment trusts (REITs).Design/methodology/approachThe paper adopts the event study methodology to assess the abnormal returns (ARs). Pre- and post-cross-listing changes in the risk exposure for the domestic and foreign markets are examined, via a modified two-factor international asset pricing model. A comparison is made for two broad cross-listings, namely, the depositary receipts and the dual ordinary listings, to examine the impacts from institutional differences.FindingsCross-listed REITs generally experience positive and significant ARs throughout the event window, implying significant superior returns associated with the cross-listing for REITs. On systematic risks, REITs exhibit significant decline in their domestic market β coefficients after the cross-listing. However, the foreign market β coefficients do not yield conclusive evidence when compared across the sample.Research limitations/implicationsResults are consistent with prudential asset allocation for potential diversification gains from the cross-listing, as the reduction from the domestic market beta is more significant than changes in the foreign market beta.Practical implicationsThe results and findings should incentivise REIT managers to explore viable cross-listing.Social implicationsSuch cross-listing for REITs should enhance risk diversification.Originality/valueThis is a pioneer study on cross-listing of REITs. It provides a basis for investment decision making, and could provoke further research and discussion.

International Illiquidity

We build a parsimonious international asset pricing model in which deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve of a country measure the tightness of investors' capital constraints. We compute these measures at daily frequency for six major markets and use them to test the model-predicted effect of funding conditions on asset prices internationally. Global illiquidity lowers the slope and increases the intercept of the international security market line. Local illiquidity helps explain the variation in alphas, Sharpe ratios, and the performance of betting-against-beta (BAB) strategies across countries.

Less is more: Testing financial integration using identification-robust asset pricing models

We revisit financial market integration and study the impact of multiple risk factors and model specification on inference. Our tests exploit a method correct in finite sample that jointly assesses coefficient significance and detects identification problems. Results on four countries show that multiple sources of risk in international asset pricing models lead to lack of identification and spurious inference. We find that domestic factor models are well identified which is not the case for global and international models. Nonetheless, domestic models do not provide a base for testing financial market integration. Given that constraint, the best-identified international model includes few factors and reveals that financial integration varies over time and across countries.

Effects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging markets

Abstract The aim of this article is to analyze how financial crises affect the dynamics of international financial integration and of the risk premia in emerging markets. Accordingly, we estimate a variant of the International Asset Pricing Model developed by Carrieri et al. (2007), allowing for time-varying stock market integration, in which we include the foreign currency risk. Our sample consists of monthly data for 12 emerging stock markets over the period 1988M3–2015M3. We find that while the financial integration of emerging stock markets has registered short-term reversals episodes in countries that have been exposed to national or/and regional financial crises, it has decreased in most of the emerging countries of our sample since the global crisis. Moreover, the upward trend in financial integration has not reduced the local market risk premium component as much as could be expected. However, the recent global crisis has induced a reassessment of the world market risk premium for all emerging countries, highlighting the global nature of the crisis.

Time varying international financial integration for GCC stock markets

Abstract This paper develops international financial integration index for GCC stock markets by employing an international asset pricing model of time-varying market integration and DCC-GARCH methodology. There are wide ranges in the degree of integration for GCC stock markets and none of them appear to be under complete segmentation. We find that trade openness, financial market development, turnover and oil revenue have significant positive impact on integration index of GCC stock markets. Global financial crisis has a significant negative impact on integration index. Our results have policy implications for GCC markets.

The relationship between covariance risk and size effects in emerging equity markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the conditionally expected return on size-based portfolios in an emerging market (EM) is determined by the country’s world risk exposure. The authors analyze the degree of financial integration of 23 emerging equity markets grouped into five size portfolios using the conditional international asset pricing model with both world and domestic market risks. The authors also compare the model’s fitness on the predictability of portfolio returns by using world and EM indices. Design/methodology/approach – This study investigates whether large-cap stocks are priced globally and whether mid- and small-cap stocks are strongly influenced by domestic risk factors. The authors first examine the predictability of large-, mid-, and small-cap stock portfolio returns by using global and local variables, and next compare the model fitness by using world and EM indices on the prediction of size-based stock returns. Finally, the authors test whether the world price of covariance risk is the same for different portfolios. Findings – The authors find that the conditional expected returns of large-cap stocks should be priced by global variables. Mid- and small-cap stocks are influenced by domestic variables rather than global variables, and their returns are priced by local residual risks. The test of the conditional asset pricing model shows that the largest stocks have the smallest mean absolute pricing errors (MAE), and their pricing errors are lower in large markets than in small markets. Third, the EM index offers more predictability for the excess returns of mid- and small-cap stocks than the world market index, but the explanatory power of this index does not increase for large-cap stocks. Originality/value – EMs in the past were known as segment markets, with local risk factors more important than global risk factors, suggesting significant benefits from adding EMs to global portfolios. It would be interesting to examine whether financial integration differs for various firm sizes in the markets.

EXCHANGE RATE RISK EXPOSURE IN ASSET PRICING THEORY

A large number of research papers on relation between currency risk and firms’ value have been published during last several decades. Researches acknowledged that currency risk could be a pricng factor. In this paper we investigate the historical development of models within the pricing theory. Also, we come to conclusion that dynamic, conditional and international asset pricing models were considered among the best for identifying the impact of exchange rate risk in developed and emerging markets. There is certain specific in currency exposure research. In this paper we considered different methodological aspects for identifying the impact of exchange rate and mentioned details of empirical analysis in emerging markets.

The Impact of Investability on Asset Valuation

AbstractWe develop an international asset pricing model to measure the impact of investability constraints on asset pricing. For a sample of 18 emerging markets, we use Standard & Poor’s investable weight factor (IWF) to show a 26.33% reduction in the cost of equity capital when non-investable firms become partially investable, with a further 12.51% reduction when partially investable firms become unrestricted. We demonstrate the generality and usefulness of the IWF by examining stocks with global/American depositary receipts and foreign institutional holdings as alternate investability proxies. Our results provide strong evidence of the economic benefits of market liberalization policies.

Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations

We document a novel empirical regularity that investors in low interest rate countries earn substantially higher Sharpe ratios on identical carry trade strategies than investors in high interest rate countries. We further document that bilateral exchange rate volatilities are increasing in interest rate differentials between currencies. These observations place new important restrictions on no-arbitrage models of international asset pricing. Our analysis naturally gives rise to a new non-parametric procedure to estimate country-specific stochastic discount factors (SDFs) from exchange rate data. In support of our approach, out-of-sample, the estimated SDFs sort linearly with national output gap fluctuations, and price risks in international equity markets.

An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market

This study examines the effect of rational and irrational components of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment on Istanbul Stock Market (ISE) return and volatility. The results show that there is a significant spillover effect of U.S. investor sentiment on stock return and volatility of ISE. A breakdown of sentiment by the type of investor shows that the impact of institutional sentiment is greater than that of individual sentiment. A breakdown of sentiment by rationality shows that the effect of rational sentiment on ISE return is faster though not necessarily greater than that of irrational sentiment. The conclusion from these results is that the effect of U.S. investor sentiment is systemic and cannot be diversified away. U.S. investor sentiment, therefore, constitutes a priced risk factor and must be accounted for accordingly in international asset pricing models. The findings also provide some evidence of a negative relationship between U.S. investor sentiment and ISE return volatility.

International Asset Pricing, Currency Risk and Integration of Markets

This study attempts to test the conditional version of the international asset-pricing model proposed in Bayraktar (2000, 2009) by using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. The theoretical model, contrary to previous empirical studies that have used random selection of currency risks, determines which currencies should be included in an empirical test, thus avoids this kind of random selection bias. The results from both full and sub-samples regressions provide some weak evidence for the existence of exchange rate risks, thus partially support the theory. However, exchange rate risks' premia are found considerably smaller than that of market risk.

Is pairs trading profitable on China AH-share markets?

Using the daily data for 38 companies during the period of 2009–2013, this article examines the long-run equilibrium between the stock prices of firms dual listed on A-share market in China and H-share market in Hong Kong, and exploits the arbitrage opportunity for investors. We propose a simple self-financing trading strategy which is derived from the short-run disequilibrium price path. Our results demonstrate that cointegration and error-correction mechanism exist between the A-share and the H-share. In addition, our proposed trading strategy actually beats the markets and provides superior performance in terms of Sharp Ratio and value at risk statistics. Further analysis on international asset pricing model demonstrates that our trading strategy yields an average annualized excess return of about 17.6% when adjusted for the systematic risk.