International Analysts Research Articles

Pastor Nevers Mumba’s Quest to Actualize the Declaration of Zambia as a Christian Nation through “Zambia Shall Be Saved” Campaign, 1993–2021

Abstract This article is grounded in the findings from qualitative and interpretivist research based on secondary and primary data. Two analytic frameworks have been used to make sense of the data. The first is Stephen Ellis and Gerrie ter Haar’s hypothesis that politics in sub-Saharan African societies cannot be fully understood without reference to religious ideas therein; and the second is the notion of African Political Theology which, according to Emmanuel Katongole, means going beyond addressing realities of violence, civil unrest, poverty, tribalism, and corruption, but deploying the story of salvation in Jesus as a concrete social, material, political, and economic reality in the African social imaginary for the construction of modern Africa. The article argues that through “Zambia Shall be Saved” orations from 1993 to date, Pastor Nevers Mumba has been calling for actualizing the declaration of Zambia as a Christian Nation (henceforth referred to as “Declaration”) made by President Frederick Chiluba in 1991. Katongole’s understanding of African Political Theology provides an invaluable lens for conceptualizing Mumba’s “Zambia Shall be Saved” discourse. The Declaration remains a topical issue among Zambian and international analysts and the significance of this particular article lies in the fact that it relates Mumba’s cry of “Zambia Shall be Saved” to the new conversation on “Actualizing the Declaration” coined by the government of the republic of Zambia in 2016. Overall, the article seeks to contribute to an ongoing discourse on Zambia’s Christian nationhood.

Connecting Cross‐Border Market Participants: The Intermediary Role of International Analysts in Global Capital Markets

AbstractAlthough the analyst profession has rapidly expanded internationally, very few studies have examined the distinct role of international analysts in the global economy. Motivated to address this need, we examine the role of international analysts as key intermediaries connecting local firms with foreign investors. Specifically, we investigate whether and under what circumstances the international analyst community in a host country influences foreign equity investment in the country. Our analyses of foreign portfolio investment inflows in 57 countries from 1987 to 2007 demonstrate that the international analyst community plays an essential role in facilitating cross‐border equity investment by mitigating foreign investors' information challenges. We also find that the extent of such influence is further affected by the heterogeneity of the host country's information environment and by that of the international analyst community. These findings extend the extant knowledge of analysts, information intermediaries, cross‐border capital investment, and global professions.

Análisis de política exterior en un contexto cambiante: Una aproximación

The foreign policy constitutes a particular field of study, attracting the attention of academics and research centers due to its intermestic nature (formulated in the internal or domestic sphere and implemented in the international or external sphere) and because it results from the contributions of International Relations, Political Science and Public Administration. Thus, it constitutes a bridge discipline of International Relations. In addition, its definition and characterization are complex since depend on how the State that formulates and implements it perceives itself; but also, because it relies on the type of State actor in question. A great power is not the same as a small State; necessary to highlight more than three-quarters of the countries in the international system are small agents. For this reason, since the mid-twentieth century, the interest of international analysts has focused on this field. In the same way, the analysis of foreign policy, as a research space, has shown an important evolution, requiring novel approaches and methodologies. On the other hand, the changes in the international system, particularly the end of the Cold War and the attacks of the so-called 9-11, introduced variants in the approach to this issue. However, it was with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the war in Ukraine that reality has become more complex and demands new perspectives for analyzing foreign policy, especially of great powers and small states. Then, this article reviews the main texts on foreign policy, from the mid-last century and up to what was published this year (2023). The intention is to offer a sort of state-ofthe-art, for those who are interested in dabbling in the analysis of foreign policy and identifying the main ideas and approaches for subsequent research work

The asymmetric mispricing information in analysts’ target prices

We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of US and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to curry favor with managers, leads to analyst-claimed undervaluation being more predictive of future stock returns than analyst-claimed overvaluation. Our empirical tests isolate analyst-claimed mispricing by first removing analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity from the returns implied by target prices and then separating analyst-claimed undervaluation from overvaluation. We find that target prices only predict future returns (at 16 cents to 18 cents on the dollar) when analysts claim undervaluation, not when they claim overvaluation. We also observe that analyst-claimed undervaluation predicts future returns more strongly after firms experience low returns and when macro-driven valuation uncertainty is low.

Assessment of the predictive potential of international Sovietology

Aim. The work aimed to review and analyze the opinions of international Sovietologists regarding the ways of the Soviet economy development of the late socialist period, as well as to identify problems of the prognostic potential of international Sovietology.Tasks. The work was performed to study scenarios for the development of the pre-perestroika Soviet economic model and problems in their prediction by international analysts.Methods. The object of study was the international historiography of the USSR economic history in the pre-perestroika period. The sources of information were official statistics and the works of international analysts. The authors of this article used general scientific research methods, as well as methods of historical and economic analysis.Results. An analysis of international studies shows that the hypothetical scenarios for the development of the Soviet Union put forward by Sovietologists before perestroika were based on prognosis of previous years, conflicting statistical data and scientific methods tested under the conditions of the capitalist economic model. Meanwhile, the Soviet planned socialist model represented a different type of economy, which had not previously been tried to be implemented on a national scale (the situation remains the same in the period considered). According to the position of international researchers, despite the low growth values of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the main leader of the economy, the industrial sector (taking into account the fall in oil revenues and stiffening of sanctions against the USSR in the early 1980s), the economy remained stable. Due to large margins of safety in the form of developed industry, agriculture, infrastructure, high scientific potential, and a huge stock of natural resources, the further existence of the USSR was not in doubt.Conclusion. Many Sovietologists have written about the need for fundamental changes in the Soviet planned economic system. At the same time, they took into account the significant difficulties and risks associated with possible reforms, believing that the consequences of the radical introduction of the market into the planned economy could be significant disturbances. This is one of the reasons why, in the pre-perestroika period, few Western analysts admitted the possibility of large-scale reforms in the near future.

Principles of comparative foreign policy

The article analyzes the principles of the comparative foreign policy of the state. The foreign policy strategies of states depend on such characteristics as size, geographical location, history, culture, form of government, etc. The author examines whether all major states behave the same way when forming and conducting foreign policy. Do all small states behave in the same way in foreign policy? Do the foreign policies of maritime states differ from the foreign policy strategies of landlocked states? These and all related issues of foreign policy development and implementation constitute the essence of the comparative foreign policy. When thinking about foreign policy, it is useful to consider it as a direction of diplomatic actions, which can be analyzed as proactive or reactive. In the history of international relations and global politics, many techniques and methods have been developed that are based on systematic studies of current events. The best foreign policy concepts have been used in the practice of states for many decades. Modern political analysis uses concepts rooted in ancient political practice. From their history, the author of the article identifies nine concepts, on the basis of which he conducts a comparative analysis of the principles of foreign policy strategies of states. Using three levels of analysis, the author concentrates on a detailed examination of a specific crosssection from the life of the state. Like biologists who adjust the resolution of a microscope, an international analyst can switch the focus from level to level in order to understand the phenomenon of foreign policy events. The author also notes that the type of research conducted depends on its purpose. The goals can be organized according to the range of types of research: instrumental, descriptive, analytical, etc. The author also gives examples of classical thinkers about foreign policy. Key words: foreign policy, international relations, political analysis.

Exploring the dark side of third-party certification effect in B2B relationships: A professional financial services perspective

This paper extends the growing research on the dark side of B2B relationships by exploring the differences in third-party certification effects based on social capital with professional financial services firms, using a proprietary dataset with confidential voting records of the nominations for Investor Relation Awards in Hong Kong. Results confirm the dark side of these relationships by showing that the nominated firms with more favorable voting from international (vs. local) analysts experience stronger certification effect with higher valuations upon announcement. Moreover, nominated (but not awarded) firms with lower levels of information transparency demonstrate a larger certification effect but they also show significant improvement in their information transparency after the event, which represents an unexpected bright outcome from this dark side of B2B relationships. Overall, these findings extend the social capital argument that international financial services firms bring higher positive return through the support of their own professional and social network.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19 НА МЕЖДУНАРОДНУЮ МИГРАЦИЮ В СТРАНАХ СЕВЕРНОЙ АФРИКИ

International migration is one of the key factors in the functioning and development of the world economy at the present time. The global COVID-19 pandemic has seriously impacted international migration. In addition to threatening the health of migrants, economic and social shocks threaten the long-term livelihoods and well-being of millions of people. At the moment, many works are devoted to international migration, however, aspects of international migration in North Africa, including in the context of the COVID-19, are poorly researched. This article aims to discuss data on migrants in North Africa with the aim of informing about the possible impact of the COVID-19. The study found that migrants are highly vulnerable to the health impacts of the pandemic from work during the pandemic, as well as vulnerabilities such as housing and poverty. There is a low probability of transferring migrants to remote work, according to international analysts, in most OECD countries the share of immigrants able to work remotely is 5% lower than that of local residents. The risk of infection for migrants is at least twice that of local residents.

Europe Dwarfed by Media and Low Self-confidence

This article rejects the dominant assertion that the world will become bipolar, with the sole remaining superpower USA as the retreating pole and China as the upcoming power on the road to leading in the new world order. We counter that forecasters should not forget Europe. In its geographical borders, it is currently leading in several quantitative and qualitative dimensions such as exports, quality manufacturing, life quality, and life expectancy. If the EU joins forces with countries already affiliated or looking for closer ties, and acts in a more coordinated manner across its members, it can be a partner of the US and China on a level playing field. This fact is currently ignored by international media and analysts. The article ventures to carve out some policy changes, which could increase Europe’s leverage. The new world order will not arise in a linear way and new middle powers will exist alongside the strongest actors: China, Europe, and the US.

Undervaluation Alpha: Analyzing the Returns to Analyst-Claimed Mispricing

We study the mispricing information in US and international analysts’ target prices. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of information that firms supply to analysts, and asymmetry in how analysts convert such information into their target prices, lead to asymmetry in the predictive properties of analyst-claimed mispricing. Specifically, we propose that analyst-claimed undervaluation will be more predictive of future returns than will analyst-claimed overvaluation. Our tests first isolate analyst-claimed mispricing by removing analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity from the returns implied by their target prices, then separate analyst-claimed undervaluation from overvaluation. Empirically we find that target prices only predict future returns (at between 15¢ and 19¢ on the dollar) when analysts claim undervaluation, not when they claim overvaluation. In additional analyses, we find that analyst-claimed undervaluation predicts future returns more strongly after firms experience low returns and when uncertainty in the overall stock market is low.

ЗАРУБІЖНИЙ ТА НАЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ ДОСВІД ФОРМУВАННЯ МЕТОДОЛОГІЧНИХ ПІДХОДІВ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ КАДРОВИХ ПОТРЕБ У ФАХІВЦЯХ

The article provides an analytical study of the main methodological foundations of forecasting personnel needs in general, and in specialists in particular, used by international analysts and experts. The weaknesses and strengths of ten methodological approaches are shown. An analytical review of the most significant domestic studies of the corresponding aria is carried out. The author analyzed the advantages and risks of using their tools in further researches. Emphasis is placed on the innovative nature of the "Qualification Map of Ukraine" Project, which for the first time in Ukraine verified ambitious plans to launch an electronic resource for analysis and forecasting of personnel needs. Recommendations on the use of foreign and Ukrainian developments in the formation of a system for forecasting personnel needs are proposed. It is concluded that the combination of various methods will highlight as many relevant aspects of the problem as possible. The most promising approach in determining the personnel needs for specialists, given the level of data availability in Ukraine, is a combination of the method for determining the ratio of unemployed and employed and the Beveridge curve method. Summarizing the national experience of forecasting personnel needs in the current conditions (lack of funding, lack of many necessary official data, etc.) the author states that the most optimal are methodological approaches to determine the adequacy of the scope and professional qualification structure of training in educational institutions according to the needs of the regional labour market.

An empirical examination of correlation dynamics between commodity and equity derivative indices: evidence from India using DCC-GARCH models

This empirical study investigates the time-varying co-movements and volatility linkages between equity-commodity indices and inter-commodity indices. This paper deploys DCC-GARCH framework. Three versions of GARCH namely standard, threshold and exponential with both symmetric and asymmetric versions of dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) have been used. This study considers equity index Nifty 50, non-agricultural commodity indices MCX Energy and MCX Metal along with agricultural commodity indices Dhaanya and MCX Agri. Our results revealed that the combined portfolio of commodities-equity has low or negative correlations, which provide better diversification property rather than a portfolio without commodities. However, we notice a steep decline in time-varying correlations of equity with non-agricultural commodity portfolio since 2013. The mixed portfolio of the agricultural commodity with non-agricultural commodity can also offer diversifying benefits. We found high volatility shifts in time-varying co-movements of Nifty 50-MCX Agri pair. On the other hand, we observed an increasing trend in the co-movements of Nifty 50-Dhaanya, it indicates the interdependency of these two markets. Non-agricultural commodity pair (MCX Energy-MCX Metal) and agricultural commodity pair (MCX Agri-Dhaanya) fail to offer better-diversifying properties. This study provides an essential insight to policymakers, portfolio managers, domestic and international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers in an emerging market.

Assessing the impact of monetary fundamentals on exchange rate fluctuations a Bayesian network approach

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how monetary fundamentals affect exchange rate movements. Design/methodology/approach To develop this paper, a Bayesian Network modeling is applied to explore the causal interactions between monetary fundamentals and exchange rate fluctuations. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is performed to asses and estimate exchange rate behavior with uncertain monetary fundamentals. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test is used as suggested in the Econometric literature to determine the causality direction among factors. Findings The empirical findings show that money supply and interest rate have a significant positive effect on exchange rate, whereas inflation rate has a considerable negative effect on exchange rate. In addition, the authors deduce that real income has an indirect impact on exchange rate and a direct impact on inflation rate, interest rate and money supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that monetary uncertainty has a considerable effect on exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, the Granger Causality test reveals that there is a unique unidirectional causality running from money supply to exchange rate. Practical implications The model can be considered as a vital management tool for international investors and financial analysts to explore the effect of monetary fundamentals on exchange rate behavior. It allows estimating exchange rate fluctuations with uncertain monetary factors. Originality/value This study is the first one which applied a Bayesian Network modeling to examine the exchange rate determination problem. Results of this research are presented under a clear graphical representation that can be easily useful by monetary policymakers and international traders to determine the influential monetary factors on exchange rate behavior. Also, the model will help them in estimating the effect of monetary uncertainty on exchange rate fluctuations.

Professionals as Agents of Globalization: The Role of Security Analysts in Financial Globalization

This study aims to understand the role of professionals as a key agent in shaping globalization. Specifically, drawing on the sociology of professions, we view international security analysts as pr...

Relative Valuation Effects of Local and International Analysts’ Voting: The Case of Investor Relations Award

Using a proprietary data set on the undisclosed voting records of analysts and professional investors on listed firms for Investor Relation (IR) Awards in Hong Kong, we show that the valuation effect of IR award announcements is positively significant. More importantly, awardees receiving stronger voting from international analysts experience higher valuation effect upon announcements. In addition, more opaque firms demonstrate a larger announcement effect than that of more transparent firms from international analyst voting. Since the voting data are not observable by the public, we conjecture that these voters/analysts disseminate positive information within their social network. This finding is consistent with the social connection effect argument, and international analysts achieve higher positive return through the support of their own social network. Furthermore, we find a stronger market valuation effect among opaque firms supported by international analysts voting. Finally, additional analysis on firm level transparency using R-square shows that the nominated but not awarded firms experience significant improvement in transparency during the event and post-event periods.

Recommendation Pattern Preferences and Share Analysts Bias on the JSE

The trustworthiness of analysts’ reports has rightly been questioned after the financial crises of the 1990s and 2000s revealed biases in their behaviour. This study investigated the inclination of analysts to issue overly-positive recommendations, the issuance patterns preferred by individual analysts, and the differential impact of recommendations between periods of positive and negative sentiment. The recommendation issuance preferences of 901 local and international analysts, who collectively issued 30 486 recommendations for shares listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange from 1993 to 2011, were scrutinised. The investigation revealed that analysts issued their opinions using many different patterns within five possible recommendation categories, and showed signs of positive biases during all market cycles and investor sentiment periods. Surprisingly, analysts issued the same proportion of negative recommendations during periods of low business confidence and economic contraction than during phases of growth- and economic upswing. The BER Business Confidence Index outperformed the SARB’s business cycle indicator in demarcating periods where investors reacted stronger to recommendations issued by analysts. Investors are advised to study an analyst’s recommendation history in addition to current advice.

The rise of the emerging powers and donors: enhanced multilateralism in humanitarian action? The case of Turkey

<p>This paper reflects on how geopolitical challenges apply to the humanitarian landscape; and have the potential to alter the foundations of the institutionalized humanitarian system. The emerging powers have become the focus of attention of international analysts for the potential they have in reshaping world affairs. Similarly, new actors have appeared in the humanitarian scene: the so-called emerging donors. This study analyzes through the case study of Turkey how countries with a two-fold identity, like emerging powers and donors, interact with the UN multilateral humanitarian system. The premise behind is that the emerging powers and donors the potential to influence and change the way humanitarian action is carried out<em>.</em></p><p><strong>Published online</strong>: 11 December 2017</p>

Exploring Serbia–Kosovo Trade Relations: Achieving Peace through Trade Interdependence?

The nexus between trade and peace has been an important and controversial topic among international relations analysts. The phrase ‘trade promotes peace’, mostly associated with liberal scholars, became rather relevant in the post-Cold War period, linking increased trade with peace-building and comprehensive improvement of relations between parties in conflict. In this paper, the authors argue that Serbia–Kosovo trade interdependence has played a very limited role in the peace-building process. Using data available since 2000, the authors find that relatively stable trade relations and an improved institutional free-trade framework (CEFTA 2006) has failed to prevent major political disputes between Serbia and Kosovo (such as violence of 2004 and promulgation of the Declaration of Independence in 2008). At the end, the article provides several alternative explanations as to why trade interdependence was not a key determinant for long-term peace between Serbia and Kosovo.

Analyst coverage network and stock return comovement in emerging markets

This paper shows that analyst coverage networks (ACN) play an important role in explaining stock return commonalities across Latin American stocks. First, pairs of stocks connected by analysts exhibit higher comovement and excess comovement. Second, firms easily traded by foreign investors are more strongly affected by common coverage. Third, international analysts are an important source of across-country excess comovement. Finally, by creating the network at the brokerage house level and exploiting exogenous changes in ACN around the MSCI LATAM Index reviews, this study addresses endogeneity concerns related to the effect of ACN on commonalities.

Data for development: The case for an Indian energy information administration

Energy in India has a big data problem – the world’s second most populous and fastest growing large economy does not have a singular central body in charge of maintaining and disseminating India’s energy data, let alone analyzing it. Different pockets of data come from different bodies, some statutory, but these lack granularity and timeliness, even before we get to the challenges of data completeness, accuracy, and differences in methodology and assumptions. We propose that India should create a national Energy Information Agency – an Indian EIA or “indEIA.” India urgently needs a dedicated, central agency to collect, collate, disseminate, and facilitate the analysis of all essential energy-related data. An entity like indEIA will be critical in helping India leverage the creative powers of the national and international analyst community to provide reliable, cost-effective, and clean energy to its citizens. Our proposal envisions indEIA as the primary vehicle for curating and maintaining India’s energy data.