International Air Passenger Research Articles

What shapes international air transportation in Southern Africa? − The evidence considering the impact of Covid-19

The lack of intra-continental air connectivity in Africa has long been criticized. This paper aims to understand the factors determining intra-regional air transportation in the Southern Africa region and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Firstly, we analyze the geospatial characteristics of the air transport network, airport connectivity, and market structure before and after the pandemic. We also examine the progress of air transport liberalization in Africa and its impact on market structure and airline privatization. We find that the liberalization facilitated market competition and the progress of privatization, but its influence didn’t sustain long. Secondly, based on monthly data at the city level from April 2012 to December 2021, using monthly Total Night-time Light Intensity (TNLI) as a proxy of gross regional product (GRP), we develop a gravity model to empirically investigate the determinants of international air passenger flows within Southern Africa. The analysis shows that the factors promoting air traffic include GRP, air transport liberalization, the presence of low-cost carriers, and airline privatization, while high market concentration and diplomatic disagreements hinder air passenger flows. The pandemic and associated government restriction measures have severely impacted intra-regional air transport connectivity, while the vaccination program has significantly contributed to the recovery of air transportation.

Dispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions were an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Through the COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Regional Network (COVIGEN), LAC countries produced an important number of genomic sequencing data that made possible an enhanced SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance capacity in the Americas, paving the way for characterization of emerging variants and helping to guide the public health response. In this study we analyzed approximately 300,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences generated between February 2020 and March 2022 by multiple genomic surveillance efforts in LAC and reconstructed the diffusion patterns of the main variants of concern (VOCs) and of interest (VOIs) possibly originated in the Region. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the spread of variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu reflects human mobility patterns due to variations of international air passenger transportation and gradual lifting of social distance measures previously implemented in countries. Our results highlight the potential of genetic data to reconstruct viral spread and unveil preferential routes of viral migrations that are shaped by human mobility patterns.

Determinants of international air passenger travel demand in Nigeria: cointegration and causality analysis

This paper examines the determinants of international air passenger travel demand in Nigeria using annual data from 1982 to 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag approach was employed to analyse short- and long-run relationships between the variables while Granger causality test was conducted to determine the direction of causality. Total real trade and economic growth are major factors positively influencing air travel demand in the short- and long-run. Contrary to findings in the literature, foreign direct investment impact air travel negatively in the long-run but has a positive effect in the short-run with 1-3year lag. Real exchange rate is found to reduce air travel demand in the short-run. The result indicate a bidirectional Granger causality between air travel and total real trade, and between air travel and economic growth. Infrastructure that will support increase in demand for international air passenger travel due to economic growth are required.

Market Developments on Chinese International Air Passenger Markets in Light of COVID-19 Policy Measures

The world’s governments imposed a plethora of restrictions and quarantine rules to prevent the rapid spread of COVID-19. China was chosen for this study as it was the first market to be impacted. The overall aim of this paper was to analyse international air travel to and from China since the start of COVID-19 and to assess the impact of policy initiatives on seat capacity during this time. The key findings are that implementation of the so called Five one policy in March 2020 was associated with an almost immediate reduction in seat capacity on China to the rest of the world, partially suppressing the more typical impact of underlying GDP and air fares on capacity. It was further found that Chinese international gateways, as airports with substantial proportions of international and connecting traffic, remain the most distressed. Long haul international traffic and revenues from European and North American destinations all experienced unprecedented and sharp reductions. Traffic and revenues from other Asian markets was even more sporadic. Alarmingly, the study extracted that revenues from premium classes were deteriorating much faster than economy class, which is of imminent concern for long-haul carriers reliant on premium traffic coming into the pandemic.

Operational performance of Indian passenger airlines using hierarchical categorical DEA approach

The challenges faced by the Indian Aviation market are complex and perplexing for the decision-makers in this sector. This industry has faced debilitating losses during COVID-19 pandemic times. The travel restrictions have been gradually lifted worldwide, and therefore the airlines can expect to witness a growth in domestic and international air passenger traffic during 2021–22. The losses incurred during the pandemic times need to be recovered. Thus, there is an urgent need to strategically plan and improve the operations so that the airlines can perform efficiently and earn revenues. Airlines in India work under heterogeneous environments depending upon their segment of operations. Some of the airlines operate for only domestic passengers and others for both domestic and international passengers. Therefore these airlines must be assessed as per their homogeneous peer group to obtain substantial results. The proposed study has discussed an approach to study airlines' operational performance using hierarchical categorical data envelopment analysis (DEA). The airlines have been categorized based upon their segment of operations. The efficiency of the airlines has been evaluated for the period 2014–19 as per their categorical input value. Window analysis has also been performed for a meaningful analysis of the results. The outcomes of the study will be helpful for policymakers to improvise the present working model of the industry and alleviate their performance.

Effect of flight connectivity on the introduction and evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canadian provinces and territories.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has challenged health services and governments in Canada and around the world. Our research aims to evaluate the effect of domestic and international air travel patterns on the COVID-19 pandemic in Canadian provinces and territories.MethodsAir travel data were obtained through licensed access to the ‘BlueDot Intelligence Platform’, BlueDot Inc. Daily provincial and territorial COVID-19 cases for Canada and global figures, including mortality, cases recovered, and population data were downloaded from public datasets. The effects of domestic and international air travel and passenger volume on the number of local and non-local infected people in each Canadian province and territory were evaluated with a semi-Markov model. Provinces and territories are grouped into large (>100 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and > 1 000 000 inhabitants) and small jurisdictions (≤100 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and ≤ 1 000 000 inhabitants).ResultsOur results show a clear decline in passenger volumes from March 2020 due to public health policies, interventions, and other measures taken to limit or control the spread of COVID-19. As the measures were eased, some provinces and territories saw small increases in passenger volumes, although travel remained below pre-pandemic levels. During the early phase of disease introduction, the burden of illness is determined by the connectivity of jurisdictions. In provinces with a larger population and greater connectivity, the burden of illness is driven by case importation, although local transmission rapidly replaces imported cases as the most important driver of increasing new infections. In smaller jurisdictions, a steep increase in cases is seen after importation, leading to outbreaks within the community.ConclusionsHistorical travel volumes, combined with data on an emerging infection, are useful to understand the behaviour of an infectious agent in regions of Canada with different connectivity and population size. Historical travel information is important for public health planning and pandemic resource allocation.

ASEAN towards a Global Halal Logistics through the Digitally-Enabled Community

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is leading the development of global halal trade and has the opportunity to become a leader in the global halal supply chain, especially in global halal logistics. Given the push towards digital transformation in creating a halal ecosystem and regarding the agenda of ASEAN towards a digitally-enabled economy, this study wants to examine whether ASEAN digitally-enabled community is correlated with ASEAN's chances of becoming a global halal logistics. Through a correlation test, it is found that there is a statistically significant relationship between ASEAN digitally-enabled community, as measured in internet subscribers/users per 100 persons and cellular/mobile phone per 100 persons, and the opportunity for ASEAN to become a global halal logistics, measured in ASEAN GDP, total air cargo, total trade in goods, and international air passenger traffic. This is probably the first study that preliminarily confirms digitally-enabled community is very important to strengthen ASEAN's opportunities to become the global halal logistics.

Effects of COVID-19 on China's civil aviation passenger transport market

COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the civil aviation transportation sector. This study uses COVID-19 statistics and socioeconomic development data for various cities in China, combined with the Moran index and econometric models to analyse the spatial distribution of China's epidemic and civil aviation passenger throughput, as well as the impact of COVID-19 and socioeconomic factors on the civil aviation passenger transport market. We find that COVID-19 spread from Wuhan to the surrounding cities, showing a positive spatial autocorrelation; civil aviation passenger throughput decreased significantly in cities where the virus continued to spread and recurred frequently. Due to the effective prevention and control of the pandemic in China, the domestic passenger transport industry recovered rapidly, while international air passenger services continued to suffer; major cities with high social and economic development still show a large decline in passenger transport, but they are again undertaking most passenger transport services. COVID-19's impact on tourism has affected the civil aviation industry significantly, whose recovery depends on the tourism industry's recovery; this, in turn, is led by regions with a high degree of social and economic development.

Application of an ANFIS to Estimate Kansai International Airport’s International Air Passenger Demand

This study presents an Adaptive Network Based Inference System (ANFIS) model to forecast international passenger demand at Osaka’s Kansai International Airport. The study covered the period 1994 to 2018. The study used nine determinants of air travel demand and three dummy variables as input variables. The results reveal that the model successfully forecasts Kansai International Airport’s international passenger demand. The coefficient of determination (R2) was high, being around 0.9776%. The overall MAPE of Kansai International Airport’s international air passenger demand model was 7.40%.

Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea

In recent years, domestic and international air passenger markets have expanded steadily around the world with the rapid growth of low cost carriers and aggressive route expansion; however, the unprecedented crisis caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in greatly decreased air travel and an uncertain future for the aviation industry. The present study examined South Korean passengers, airlines, and government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it suggests policy directions for the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Air passengers respond to internal and external factors, and their demand for travel will increase with the reduction in global COVID cases and vaccine distribution. South Korean airlines have used various means to overcome decreased passenger numbers, such as domestic route transitions, freight transportation expansion, and mergers and acquisitions; Korean Air recorded a profit through its foray into cargo transport in 2020. The Korean government is trying to curb the spread of COVID-19 and help the industry to recover by establishing an airport quarantine system at Incheon international airport. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it is necessary to continuously monitor the responses of passengers, industry, and governments and to share relevant information.

ASEAN Towards a Global Halal Logistics Through the Digitally Enabled Community

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is leading the development of global halal trade and has the opportunity to become a leader in the global halal supply chain, especially in global halal logistics. Given the push towards digital transformation in creating a halal ecosystem and regarding the agenda of ASEAN towards a digitally-enabled economy, this study wants to examine whether ASEAN digitally-enabled community is correlated with ASEAN's chances of becoming a global halal logistics. Through a correlation test, it is found that there is a statistically significant relationship between ASEAN digitally-enabled community, as measured in internet subscribers/users per 100 persons and cellular/mobile phone per 100 persons, and the opportunity for ASEAN to become a global halal logistics, measured in ASEAN GDP, total air cargo, total trade in goods, and international air passenger traffic. This is probably the first study that preliminarily confirms digitally-enabled community is very important to strengthen ASEAN's opportunities to become the global halal logistics.

Service failure recovery on customer recovery satisfaction for airline industry: The moderator of brand authenticity and perceived authenticity

In the increasingly competitive international air passenger market, service errors are inevitable in the process of providing services. The most important thing is that when the service fails, it is particularly important to adopt a proactive and appropriate service strategy to calm the customer's dissatisfaction for achieving the purpose of sustainable operation. This paper used structural equation models and sent 300 questionnaires to the consumers in Taiwan, 279 questionnaires were valid returned with a collection rate of 96.33% through a questionnaire survey. The empirical results show that service recovery and customer satisfaction show a significant positive correlation. Politeness, compensation, and response speed of service remediation have a positive and significant impact on satisfaction; brand authenticity and perceived authenticity have a moderator effect. The research results can provide reference for air industry in service recovery and customer satisfaction.

Business Flies: The Trade Promoting Effect of Air Connectivity

Despite the increasing dominance of digital technology in modern communications, face-to-face interactions are believed to play an irreplaceable role in facilitating complex cross-border business transactions. However, empirical research to identify the impact often faces the challenge of two-way causality when cross-country in-person meetings are measured by international air passenger flows. We propose a novel instrumental variable to estimate the causal effect of international air travel on bilateral trade. Our identification strategy exploits variations in connecting flight capacities in the global flight network to leverage exogenous variations in the air connectivity between two countries. With the inclusion of stringent fixed effects in our estimations and checked for robustness against many possible threats to the identification, our results show that international air connectivity facilitates trade between countries, but only for industries with a higher reliance on relationship-specific investments or incomplete contracts. We also find that stronger enforcement of contracts in the importing country amplifies the trade promoting effect of air connectivity, and that trade in new products, relative to existing products, responds more positively to improved air transport links. Together, these findings suggest that in-person communications reduce transaction costs in international trade by facilitating the exchange of complex knowledge that cannot be easily and completely codified and by breaking market entry barriers.

Business Flies: The Trade Promoting Effect of Air Connectivity

Despite the increasing dominance of digital technology in modern communications, face-to-face interactions are believed to play an irreplaceable role in facilitating complex crossborder business transactions. However, empirical research to identify the impact often faces the challenge of two-way causality when cross-country in-person meetings are measured by international air passenger flows. We propose a novel instrumental variable to estimate the causal effect of international air travel on bilateral trade. Our identification strategy exploits variations in connecting flight capacities in the global flight network to leverage exogenous variations in the air connectivity between two countries. With the inclusion of stringent fixed effects in our estimations and checked for robustness against many possible threats to the identification, our results show that international air connectivity facilitates trade between countries, but only for industries with a higher reliance on relationship-specific investments or incomplete contracts. We also find that stronger enforcement of contracts in the importing country amplifies the trade promoting effect of air connectivity, and that trade in new products, relative to existing products, responds more positively to improved air transport links. Together, these findings suggest that in-person communications reduce transaction costs in international trade by facilitating the exchange of complex knowledge that cannot be easily and completely codified and by breaking market entry barriers.

Global trends in air travel: implications for connectivity and resilience to infectious disease threats.

Increased connectivity via air travel can facilitate the geographic spread of infectious diseases. The number of travellers alone does not explain risk; passenger origin and destination will also influence risk of disease introduction and spread. We described trends in international air passenger numbers and connectivity between countries with different capacities to detect and respond to infectious disease threats. We used the Fragile States Index (FSI) as an annual measure of country-level resilience and capacity to respond to infectious disease events. Countries are categorized as: Sustainable, Stable, Warning or Alert, in order of increasing fragility. We included data for 177 sovereign states for the years 2010 to 2019. Annual inbound and outbound international air passengers for each country were obtained for the same time period. We examined trends in FSI score, trends in worldwide air travel and the association between a state's FSI score and air travel. Among countries included in the FSI rankings, the total number of outbound passengers increased from 0.865 billion to 1.58 billion between 2010 and 2019. Increasing fragility was associated with a decrease in travel volumes, with a 2.5% (95% CI: 2.0-3.1%) reduction in passengers per 1-unit increase in FSI score. Overall, travel between countries of different FSI categories either increased or remained stable. The world's connectivity via air travel has increased dramatically over the past decade. There has been notable growth in travel from Warning and Stable countries, which comprise more than three-quarters of international air travel passengers. These countries may have suboptimal capacity to detect and respond to infectious disease threats that emerge within their borders.

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study.

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination, we sought to determine international case exportation risk and identify countries at greatest risk of receiving travel-associated imported CHIKV cases. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected number of exported cases from Southern Thailand between October 2018 and April 2019. The model incorporated data on CHIKV natural history, infection rates in Southern Thailand, average length of stay for tourists, and international outbound air passenger numbers from the outbreak area. For countries highly connected to Southern Thailand by air travel, we ran 1000 simulations to estimate the expected number of imported cases. We also identified destination countries with conditions suitable for autochthonous CHIKV transmission. Over the outbreak period, we estimated that an average of 125 (95% credible interval (CrI): 102–149) cases would be exported from Southern Thailand to international destinations via air travel. China was projected to receive the most cases (43, 95% CrI: 30–56), followed by Singapore (7, 95% CrI: 2–12) and Malaysia (5, 95% CrI: 1–10). Twenty-three countries were projected to receive at least one imported case, and 64% of these countries had one or more regions that could potentially support autochthonous CHIKV transmission. The overall risk of international exportation of CHIKV cases associated with the outbreak is Southern Thailand is high. Our model projections are consistent with recent reports of CHIKV in travelers returning from the region. Countries should be alert to the possibility of CHIKV infection in returning travelers, particularly in regions where autochthonous transmission is possible.

Overbooking in the Contract for International Air Passenger Transportation, and the Application of the Act on the Regulation of Terms and Conditions

Overbooking in the Contract for International Air Passenger Transportation, and the Application of the Act on the Regulation of Terms and Conditions

Long Term Forecasting of International Air Travel Demand in Nigeria (2018-2028)

This study examines long term forecasting of international air travel demand in Nigeria. Yearly data from 2001 to 2017 were collected from secondary sources. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was used to forecast the ten years (2018 to 2028) demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. The demand for international air passenger in Nigeria from year 2001 to 2017 was compared with the forecast. Calculation reveals that the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.815, while the computed reveals that the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.769, this difference can be attributed to approximations to two decimal places for calculated test. The calculated test and computed test reveals that the error term is minimal and the explanation level is high; hence the prediction or forecast is reliable. The forecast for years 2020, 2025 and 2028 are 5,282,453, 6,342,519, and 6,978,559 respectively which are about 48 percent increase, 78 percent increase, and 95 percent increase respectively from demand in year 2017. The forecast of ten years from year 2018 to year 2028 reveals that there will be more increase in the demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. The implication of this increment is that existing air transport infrastructures should be upgraded, and new infrastructures should be procured and installed; airport and airline operations should be reviewed and strategized such that they will meet the expectations of airline and airport users. Other concerned business stakeholders should use this data to plan and invest as there is high tendency for profit making.

Terrorism and international air travel: A gravity approach

AbstractWe present a theoretical model (adapted from the structural gravity model by Anderson and van Wincoop, American Economic Review, 93, 2003, 170) to capture the effects of terrorism on air passenger traffic between nations affected by terrorism. We then use equations derived from this model, in conjunction with alternative functional forms for trade costs, to estimate the effects of terrorism on bilateral air passenger service flows from 58 source countries to 26 destination countries during 2000–14. An additional small‐scale terrorist incident in the origin country and destination country together results in a reduction in bilateral air passenger travel by, at least, 1.3% and 0.81%, respectively, for pairs of countries located 1,000 and 2,000 km or less apart. The adverse impact of transnational terrorism is approximately five times larger. Terrorism adversely impacts bilateral air passenger travel both by reducing national output and especially by increasing psychological distress. Last but not the least, international air passenger travel is found to be extremely sensitive to fatal terrorist attacks and terrorist attacks on targets such as airports, travel or tourists.

Quantifying the impact of low-cost carriers on international air passenger movements to and from major airports in Asia

Asia is the world’s most rapidly growing aviation market, and the region now cradles the largest number of low-cost carriers (LCCs). This paper identifies the causal effect of LCC entry on international air passenger flows to and from 30 major airports in Asia using reservation-based international air passenger traffic data for years 2010 and 2015 (N=123,148). In order to bypass the endogeneity arising from self selection of LCCs’ entry decision as well as confounding by unobservables, the paper utilizes multiple identification strategies, namely, difference-in-differences (DID), propensity score matching coupled with DID, DID with inverse-probability weighted regression adjustment, and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) with the maximum flight range of an aircraft typically used by LCCs as the cutoff. The results consistently show that LCC impact on international air passenger traffic is strictly positive, and is decreasing over distance with slight convexity. Another finding is that the impact of LCC entry net of competition effect holding market concentration constant accounts for the major part of the overall impact, i.e. LCC replacing full-service carriers greatly increases international air passenger movements in Asia.