Internal Oceanic Variability Research Articles

Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes.

Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence

Abstract. Accelerated progress in climate modeling is urgently needed for proactive and effective climate change adaptation. The central challenge lies in accurately representing processes that are small in scale yet climatically important, such as turbulence and cloud formation. These processes will not be explicitly resolvable for the foreseeable future, necessitating the use of parameterizations. We propose a balanced approach that leverages the strengths of traditional process-based parameterizations and contemporary artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to model subgrid-scale processes. This strategy employs AI to derive data-driven closure functions from both observational and simulated data, integrated within parameterizations that encode system knowledge and conservation laws. In addition, increasing the resolution to resolve a larger fraction of small-scale processes can aid progress toward improved and interpretable climate predictions outside the observed climate distribution. However, currently feasible horizontal resolutions are limited to O(10 km) because higher resolutions would impede the creation of the ensembles that are needed for model calibration and uncertainty quantification, for sampling atmospheric and oceanic internal variability, and for broadly exploring and quantifying climate risks. By synergizing decades of scientific development with advanced AI techniques, our approach aims to significantly boost the accuracy, interpretability, and trustworthiness of climate predictions.

Circulation and Cross‐Shelf Exchanges in the Northern Shelf of the Southwestern Atlantic: Dynamics

AbstractThe strong interaction between the Brazil Current and the adjacent shelf is clearly visible in satellite‐derived products (sea surface temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll‐a concentration). Assessments of circulation features and cross‐shelf exchanges from these products are, however, limited to the surface layer. Here we analyze the regional circulation and dynamics using the results of a suite of process‐oriented, high‐resolution numerical experiments. Passive tracers and Lagrangian floats characterize the exchanges between the shelf and the open ocean, identifying regions of high variability, and assessing the contribution of small‐scale eddies to the cross‐shelf mass exchanges. We estimate that 0.2–0.4 Sv of the shelf transport variability between 34°S and 25°S comes from ocean internal variability which represents ∼50%–70% of the total variability. Between 25°S and 21°S, internal ocean variability represents more than 90% of the shelf transport variability. We find that generation of cyclonic eddies is more frequent (>15% of the time) at the shelfbreak bights. The core of these eddies contains fresher, colder, and more nutrient‐rich shelf waters. Maps of satellite chlorophyll‐a concentration suggest that the horizontal and vertical exchanges of mass associated with these eddies are a critical element of the primary production cycle.

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean sea surface height: An assessment from CMIP6 models

AbstractThis study examined the sea level (SL) changes on the interdecadal timescale in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in response to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The analysis suggests that the interdecadal sea level pattern variation in the Thermocline Ridge of the Indian Ocean (TRIO) area coincides with the IPO phases and is mainly caused by fluctuations of surface forcing over the TIO. Changes in tropical wind stress curl (WSC) mainly induce the SL variability on the interdecadal timescale associated with IPO in the TRIO region in both observations and models. The stochastic wind forcing and its interaction with the ocean's internal variability produce significant interdecadal SL fluctuation in the southeast Indian Ocean. We evaluated the ability of 20 CMIP6 models to capture interdecadal variations in sea level teleconnections. We found that about 75% of models reproduce decadal fluctuations related to IPO pretty well. The interdecadal variations of the SL in the western TIO emerge primarily in response to westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves induced by the WSC in the central‐south TIO in MMM, and models as in observations. Pacific IPO‐related anomalies primarily spread through the oceanic pathways of the Maritime Continent in the eastern Indian Ocean. Further, the IPO induces changes in the western Indian Ocean WSC through atmospheric pathways, which in turn causes Rossby waves to move westward, affecting the southwest Indian SL. Almost all the models and MMM show interdecadal SL variations in TIO associated with IPO. This study is beneficial as interdecadal prediction research on SL has a significant societal need.

Role of Oceanic Internal Instability in the Generation of Low‐Frequency Variability in the Indian Ocean

AbstractLow‐frequency (Interannual and longer timescale) variability in sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in affecting the regional climate. Using a high‐resolution global model simulation, we show that internal oceanic variability is an important cause of the observed low‐frequency variability in the subtropical‐midlatitude south Indian Ocean (SIO) between 20° and 40°S, a marked southward shift in the latitude band of active internal variability for the low‐frequency compared to earlier estimates based on coarser Indian Ocean regional models. Notably, we show that internal variability does not contribute to the observed low‐frequency variability in the Seychelles−Chagos thermocline ridge region. Energy budget analysis shows that baroclinic instability is the primary cause for the internal variability. The slowly growing baroclinic instabilities at low frequency and longer length scale favor Rossby waves' generation, propagating the SST and sea level anomaly signals westward.

Diagnosing Hawaii’s Recent Drought

Abstract Hawaii’s recent drought is among the most severe on record. Wet-season (November–April) rainfall deficits during 2010–19 rank second lowest among consecutive 10-yr periods since 1900. Various lines of empirical and model evidence indicate a principal natural atmospheric cause for the low rainfall, mostly unrelated to either internal oceanic variability or external forcing. Empirical analysis reveals that traditional factors have favored wetness rather than drought in recent decades, including a cold phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a weakened Aleutian low in atmospheric circulation. But correlations of Hawaiian rainfall with patterns of Pacific sea level pressure and SSTs that explained a majority of its variability during the twentieth century collapsed in the twenty-first century. Atmospheric model simulations indicate a forced decadal signal (2010–19 vs 1981–2000) of Aleutian low weakening, consistent with recent observed North Pacific circulation. However, model ensemble means do not generate reduced Hawaiian rainfall, indicating that neither oceanic boundary forcing nor a weakened Aleutian low caused recent low Hawaiian rainfall. Additional atmospheric model experiments explored the role of anthropogenic forcing. These reveal a strong sensitivity of Hawaiian rainfall to details of long-term SST change patterns. Under an assumption that anthropogenic forcing drives zonally uniform SST warming, Hawaiian rainfall declines, with a range of 3%–9% among three models. Under an assumption that anthropogenic forcing also increases the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient, Hawaiian rainfall increases 2%–6%. Large spread among ensemble members indicates that no forced signals are detectable.

Moisture transport to a typical transitional climate zone in North China forced by atmospheric and oceanic internal variability under the background of global warming

AbstractNorth Central China (NCC) (34°–42°N, 95°–107°E), a typical transitional climate zone between westerlies and monsoon, shows multiple time‐scale variations in precipitation under the background of global warming. Thus, NCC moisture transport (NMT) was analysed based on reanalysis data from 1979–2015. By using the spatially unbounded dynamic recycling model, main NMT pathways and moisture sources were identified for the summer rainfall of NCC. The trend pattern of NMT manifests as a seesaw pattern with a weakening northwesterly transport but an enhancing southwesterly transport, suggesting an interaction between the mid‐latitude westerlies and the Indian monsoon. The temporal evolution of the NMT trend pattern exhibits interannual and multidecadal variability superimposed on long‐term trends, which correspond to the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes, respectively. The partial least squares regression analysis demonstrated that the temporal evolution of NMT trend patterns can be well explained by atmospheric and oceanic internal climate variability (ICV). At interannual time scales, the atmospheric ICV, composed of the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) and East Atlantic (EA) and East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) teleconnections, forms a Eurasian wave train that weakens westerly transport via the Europe blocking flow and enhances southwesterly transport via local circulation anomalies with a zonal dipole structure. However, oceanic ICV, composed of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), exerts influence on a multidecadal time scale to decelerate the mid‐latitude westerly jet over the North Atlantic, providing favourable upstream background conditions for the formation of the Europe blocking and further maintaining the atmospheric ICV‐induced Eurasian wave train. Thus, the internal oceanic and atmospheric processes at different time scales couple to contribute to long‐term changes in precipitation over NCC under the background of global warming.

The Influence of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on the Atmospheric Response to Midlatitude North Pacific SST Anomalies

AbstractThe stochastic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are always present because of the internal oceanic variability due to small‐scale SST variability and based on a set of ensemble experiments forced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation‐related midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies with and without oceanic stochastic forcing, their influences on atmospheric variability in coarse‐resolution models are investigated in this study. Comparisons of experiment results show that oceanic stochastic forcing can improve the simulated atmospheric response by generating more organized atmospheric transient eddies through the increases of both thermal activity and atmospheric baroclinicity, similar to the high‐resolution observations and simulations. Dynamic diagnostics further reveal the dominant contributions of corresponding transient eddy vorticity forcing to the significantly enhanced westerly wind with equivalent barotropic structure. It suggests that the oceanic stochastic forcing is important and nonnegligible for the understanding and theory of oceanic feedback to the atmosphere in the midlatitudes.

North Atlantic Ocean Internal Decadal Variability: Role of the Mean State and Ocean‐Atmosphere Coupling

AbstractThe origin of the decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a series of coupled and ocean‐only numerical experiments. Two versions of the IPSL‐CM5A model are considered, differing only by their atmospheric horizontal resolution (3.75° × 1.87° and 2.5° × 1.25°). When the ocean model is forced by the climatological surface fluxes from the low atmospheric resolution coupled model version, a 20‐year variability emerges, similar to the variability found in the coupled simulation. Such decadal variability is consistent with a large‐scale baroclinic instability of the mean flow in the west European basin. Increasing the atmospheric resolution leads to a more intense Icelandic low, which intensifies the western subpolar gyre, and warms the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre region. The mean state changes nearly vanish the associated internal oceanic variability under the corresponding climatological surface fluxes. Increasing the atmospheric resolution also produces a slightly weaker atmospheric stochastic forcing. Both the mean state and atmospheric variability changes are consistent with the decreasing amplitude of the variability in the coupled model. For both model versions, the amplitude of the internal oceanic variability is strongly enhanced in the presence of atmospheric stochastic forcing. Air‐sea coupling on the other hand has a moderate influence on the amplitude of the variability only in the low‐resolution model version, where the North Atlantic oceanic variability at 20 years increases by 23% due to coupling. The coupling effect is therefore modest and sensitive to the atmospheric horizontal resolution.

Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a $$1/4^\circ$$ ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air−sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Nino 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately $$\pm \,45\%$$ the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about $$20\%$$ and $$70\%$$ of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

The climate of the Common Era off the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract. The Mediterranean region is a climate hot spot, sensitive not only to global warming but also to water availability. In this work we document major temperature and precipitation changes in the Iberian Peninsula and margin during the last 2000 years and propose an interplay of the North Atlantic internal variability with the three atmospheric circulation modes (ACMs), (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), east atlantic (EA) and Scandinavia (SCAND)) to explain the detected climate variability. We present reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST derived from alkenones) and on-land precipitation (estimated from higher plant n-alkanes and pollen data) in sedimentary sequences recovered along the Iberian Margin between the south of Portugal (Algarve) and the northwest of Spain (Galiza) (36 to 42° N). A clear long-term cooling trend, from 0 CE to the beginning of the 20th century, emerges in all SST records and is considered to be a reflection of the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation that began after the Holocene optimum. Multi-decadal/centennial SST variability follows other records from Spain, Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Warm SSTs throughout the first 1300 years encompass the Roman period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A cooling initiated at 1300 CE leads to 4 centuries of colder SSTs contemporary with the Little Ice Age (LIA), while a climate warming at 1800 CE marks the beginning of the modern/Industrial Era. Novel results include two distinct phases in the MCA: an early period (900–1100 years) characterized by intense precipitation/flooding and warm winters but a cooler spring–fall season attributed to the interplay of internal oceanic variability with a positive phase in the three modes of atmospheric circulation (NAO, EA and SCAND). The late MCA is marked by cooler and relatively drier winters and a warmer spring–fall season consistent with a shift to a negative mode of the SCAND. The Industrial Era reveals a clear difference between the NW Iberia and the Algarve records. While off NW Iberia variability is low, the Algarve shows large-amplitude decadal variability with an inverse relationship between SST and river input. Such conditions suggest a shift in the EA mode, from negative between 1900 and 1970 CE to positive after 1970, while NAO and SCAND remain in a positive phase. The particularly noticeable rise in SST at the Algarve site by the mid-20th century (±1970), provides evidence for a regional response to the ongoing climate warming. The reported findings have implications for decadal-scale predictions of future climate change in the Iberian Peninsula.

Eastward propagating decadal temperature variability in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans

AbstractThe origin and structure of eastward propagating decadal temperature variability in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans are investigated by using long‐term output of coupled general circulation model. Composite analysis during the warm Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) years shows that decadal temperature anomalies in the SWIO region originate in the South Atlantic and are associated with density anomalies. Since the density anomalies propagate at the speed of a few cm s−1, slower than the speed of the background eastward Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and exhibit a surface‐intensified equivalent barotropic structure, the eastward propagation of the density anomalies may be attributed to quasi‐stationary oceanic Rossby waves. The density anomalies are also accompanied with anomalous Ekman pumping, indicating an important contribution from the overlying atmospheric variability. The role of atmospheric variability is further examined by evaluating the mixed‐layer heat balance. It is found that the warm temperature anomalies in the South Atlantic are due to anomalous entrainment and meridional advection. These results suggest that the atmospheric variability plays an important role through the ocean mixed layer in generating the eastward propagation of decadal temperature variability from the South Atlantic besides the internal ocean variability as suggested in previous studies.

Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

Causes for intraseasonal sea surface salinity variability in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and its seasonality

AbstractPronounced intraseasonal variability (ISV; 20–90 day) of sea surface salinity (SSS) with a standard deviation of 0.12–0.20 psu is detected in the western tropical Pacific Ocean (PO) from measurements of Aquarius/SAC‐D satellite. These variations are not spatially uniform but show distinct regional features. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) well simulated the observed SSS variations, and a suite of parallel experiments were performed to understand the underlying physical processes. Surface forcing by atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations which are dominated by the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is largely responsible for producing the SSS ISV, while ocean internal variability plays a secondary role. Impact of atmospheric forcing is primarily through precipitation and wind stress‐driven oceanic processes. Their relative importance shows spatial variations. They have approximately equal importance in the western equatorial PO west of 155°E and the southwestern tropical PO. Wind stress effect dominates SSS ISV in the equatorial PO east of 155°E, while precipitation effect is larger in the northwestern tropical PO. In comparison, the effect of evaporation induced by wind speed change is smaller. The SSS ISV also shows evident seasonality in some areas, particularly in the far western equatorial basin and southwestern tropical PO. During boreal summer (winter), SSS ISV is enhanced (weakened) in the northwestern PO and weakened (enhanced) in the southwestern PO. Comparing with the strength of atmospheric forcing, seasonal variation of the ocean state, especially the mixed layer depth, is generally more important in causing such seasonality.

Decadal Sea Level Variations in the Indian Ocean Investigated with HYCOM: Roles of Climate Modes, Ocean Internal Variability, and Stochastic Wind Forcing*

Abstract In this study decadal (≥10 yr) sea level variations in the Indian Ocean (IO) during 1950–2012 are investigated using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The solution of the main run agrees well with observations in the western-to-central IO. Results of HYCOM experiments reveal large spatial variations in the mechanisms of decadal sea level variability. Within the tropical IO (north of 20°S), decadal sea level variations achieve maximum amplitude in the south IO thermocline ridge region. They are predominantly forced by decadal fluctuations of surface wind stress associated with climate variability modes, while the impact of other processes is much smaller. The Somali coast and the western Bay of Bengal are two exceptional regions, where ocean internal (unforced) variability has large contribution. Between 28° and 20°S in the subtropical south IO, surface heat flux and ocean internal variability are the major drivers of decadal sea level variability. Heat budget analysis for the upper 300 m of this region suggests that surface heat flux affects regional thermosteric sea level through both local surface heating and heat transport by ocean circulation. In the southwestern IO south of 30°S, where stochastic winds are strong, stochastic wind forcing and its interaction with ocean internal variability generate pronounced decadal variations in sea level. The comprehensive investigation of decadal sea level variability over the IO from an oceanic perspective will contribute to decadal sea level prediction research, which has a high societal demand.

North Atlantic Holocene climate evolution recorded by high-resolution terrestrial and marine biomarker records

Holocene climatic change is driven by a plethora of forcing mechanisms acting on different time scales, including: insolation, internal ocean (e.g. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; AMOC) and atmospheric (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO) variability. However, it is unclear how these driving mechanisms interact with each other. Here we present five, biomarker based, paleoclimate records (air-, sea surface temperature and precipitation), from a fjordic sediment core, revealing North Atlantic terrestrial and marine climate in unprecedented detail. The Early Holocene (10.7–7.8 kyrs BP) is characterised by relatively high air temperatures while SSTs are dampened by melt water events, and relatively low precipitation. The Middle Holocene (7.8–3.2 kyrs BP) is characterised by peak SSTs, declining air temperatures and high precipitation. A pronounced marine thermal maximum occurs between ∼7–5.5 kyrs BP, 3000 years after the terrestrial thermal maximum, driven by melt water cessation and an accelerating AMOC. The neoglacial cooling, between 5.8 and 3.2 kyrs BP leads into the late Holocene. We demonstrate that an observed modern link between Icelandic precipitation variability during different NAO phases, may have existed from ∼7.5 kyrs BP. A simultaneous decoupling of both air, and sea surface temperature records from declining insolation at ∼3.2 kyrs BP may indicate a threshold, after which internal feedback mechanisms, namely the NAO evolved to be the primary drivers of Icelandic climate on centennial time-scales.

Intraseasonal sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Indo‐Pacific Ocean induced by Madden‐Julian oscillations

AbstractIntraseasonal sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the equatorial Indo‐Pacific Ocean is investigated using the Aquarius/SAC‐D satellite measurements and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Large‐scale SSS variations at 20–90 day time scales induced by Madden‐Julian oscillations (MJOs) are prominent in the central‐to‐eastern Indian Ocean (IO) and western Pacific Ocean (PO) with a standard deviation of ∼0.15 psu. The relationship between SSS anomaly and freshwater flux is nearly in phase in the central‐to‐eastern IO and out of phase in the western PO during a MJO cycle. A series of HYCOM experiments are performed to explore the causes for SSS variability. In most areas of the equatorial Indo‐Pacific Ocean, wind stress‐forced ocean dynamical processes act as the main driver of intraseasonal SSS, while precipitation plays a secondary role. In some areas of the western PO and western IO, however, precipitation effect is the leading contributor. In comparison, evaporation effect induced by radiation and wind speed changes is generally much smaller. Besides the external forcing by MJOs, ocean internal variability can also cause considerable intraseasonal SSS changes, explaining 10–20% of the total variance in some regions. Composite analysis for MJO events reveals that the effects of wind stress, precipitation, and evaporation vary at different phases of a MJO cycle. The MJO‐induced SSS signature is the result of complicated superimposition and interaction of these effects. The effect of wind stress also varies significantly from event to event. It affects SSS variability primarily through horizontal ocean current advection and to a lesser extent through vertical entrainment.

Spatial trend patterns in the Pacific Ocean sea level during the altimetry era: the contribution of thermocline depth change and internal climate variability

This study investigates the spatial trend patterns and variability of observed sea level and upper ocean thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean during the altimetry era (1993–2012), and the role of thermocline depth changes. The observed sea level trend pattern in this region results from the superposition of two main signals: (1) a strong broad-scale V-shaped positive trend anomaly extending to mid-latitudes in the central Pacific and (2) another very strong positive trend anomaly located in the western tropical Pacific within about 120° E–160° E and 20° S–20° N latitude. In this study, we focus on the tropical Pacific (20° N–20° S) where the strongest trends in sea level are observed. By making use of in situ observational data, we study the impact of thermocline depth changes on steric sea level between the surface and 700 m and its relation with the altimetry-based observed sea level changes. This is done by calculating the time-varying thermocline depth (using the 20 °C isotherm depth as a proxy) and estimating the sea level trend patterns of the thermocline-attributed individual steric components. We show that it is essentially the vertical movement of the thermocline that governs most of the observed sea level changes and trends in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, we also show that in the equatorial band, the changes in the upper ocean thermal structure are in direct response to the zonal wind stress. Away from the equatorial band (say, within 5°–15° latitude), the changes in the upper ocean thermal structure are consistent with the wind stress-generated Rossby waves. We also estimate the contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the vertical thermal structure of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Removing the IPO contribution to the upper layer steric sea level provides a non-negligible residual pattern, suggesting that IPO-related internal ocean variability alone cannot account for the observed trend patterns in the Pacific sea level. It is likely that the residual signal may also reflect non-linear interactions between different natural modes like El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), IPO, etc.

Interannual variability of the surface summertime eastward jet in the South China Sea

AbstractThe summertime eastward jet (SEJ) located around 12°N, 110°E–113°E, as the offshore extension of the Vietnam coastal current, is an important feature of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation in boreal summer. Analysis of satellite‐derived sea level and sea surface wind data during 1992–2012 reveals pronounced interannual variations in its surface strength (SSEJ) and latitudinal position (YSEJ). In most of these years, the JAS (July, August, and September)‐mean SSEJ fluctuates between 0.17 and 0.55 m s−1, while YSEJ shifts between 10.7°N and 14.3°N. These variations of the SEJ are predominantly contributed from the geostrophic current component that is linked to a meridional dipole pattern of sea level variations. This sea level dipole pattern is primarily induced by local wind changes within the SCS associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Enhanced (weakened) southwest monsoon at the developing (decaying) stage of an El Niño event causes a stronger (weaker) SEJ located south (north) of its mean position. Remote wind forcing from the tropical Pacific can also affect the sea level in the SCS via energy transmission through the Philippine archipelago, but its effect on the SEJ is small. The impact of the oceanic internal variability, such as eddy‐current interaction, is assessed using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Such impact can lead to considerable year‐to‐year changes of sea level and the SEJ, equivalent to ∼20% of the observed variation. This implies the complexity and prediction difficulty of the upper ocean circulation in this region.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field.