Interior Western United States Research Articles

Precipitation Proxies for Flash Flooding: A Seven-Year Analysis over the Contiguous United States

Abstract Flash flooding remains a challenging prediction problem, which is exacerbated by the lack of a universally accepted definition of the phenomenon. In this article, we extend prior analysis to examine the correspondence of various combinations of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) and precipitation thresholds to observed occurrences of flash floods, additionally considering short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts from a convection-allowing model. Consistent with previous studies, there is large variability between QPE datasets in the frequency of “heavy” precipitation events. There is also large regional variability in the best thresholds for correspondence with reported flash floods. In general, flash flood guidance (FFG) exceedances provide the best correspondence with observed flash floods, although the best correspondence is often found for exceedances of ratios of FFG above or below unity. In the interior western United States, NOAA Atlas 14 derived recurrence interval thresholds (for the southwestern United States) and static thresholds (for the northern and central Rockies) provide better correspondence. The 6-h QPE provides better correspondence with observed flash floods than 1-h QPE in all regions except the West Coast and southwestern United States. Exceedances of precipitation thresholds in forecasts from the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) generally do not correspond with observed flash flood events as well as QPE datasets, but they outperform QPE datasets in some regions of complex terrain and sparse observational coverage such as the southwestern United States. These results can provide context for forecasters seeking to identify potential flash flood events based on QPE or forecast-based exceedances of precipitation thresholds. Significance Statement Flash floods result from heavy rainfall, but it is difficult to know exactly how much rain will cause a flash flood in a particular location. Furthermore, different precipitation datasets can show very different amounts of precipitation, even from the same storm. This study examines how well different precipitation datasets and model forecasts, used by forecasters to warn the public of flash flooding, represent heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding around the United States. We found that different datasets have dramatically different numbers of heavy rainfall events and that high-resolution model forecasts of heavy rain correspond with observed flash flood events about as well as precipitation datasets based on rain gauge and radar in some regions of the country with few observations.

Extent, impacts and drivers of oystershell scale invasions in aspen ecosystems

Invasive herbivores that kill foundation tree species pose a major threat to forest ecosystem sustainability. One important foundation tree species in the interior western United States is quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), which is threatened by recent outbreaks of an invasive insect, oystershell scale (Lepidosaphes ulmi Linn.; OSS). OSS outbreaks were first reported in 2016, when OSS began causing dieback and mortality of aspen in wildland forest settings in northern Arizona. Since then, OSS has been observed in other locations across Arizona and in other western states, and recent studies in Arizona have highlighted the threat that OSS poses to aspen sustainability, warranting a comprehensive survey of OSS invasions and their impacts on aspen ecosystems. We sampled aspen populations across Arizona and addressed three questions: (1) What is the geographic extent of OSS in Arizona? (2) What impacts does OSS have on aspen? (3) Which biotic and abiotic factors influence the proportion of aspen stems infested by OSS? OSS was present in 29% of our 220 study plots and had a negative impact on aspen forest health. OSS was associated with crown damage and tree mortality, especially of intermediate-sized, recruiting stems. Climate was the most important driver of OSS infestation, with warmer, drier conditions resulting in significantly more OSS. OSS was also associated with less recent fire, presence of ungulate management strategies (e.g. fenced exclosures) and stands with a greater density of aspen saplings. We conclude by providing OSS monitoring and management recommendations, based on our findings, and emphasise that active management – such as prescribed fire, reduced reliance on ungulate exclosures or thinning – is required to suppress OSS populations and mitigate damage to aspen ecosystems.

Diverse Characteristics of Extreme Orographic Snowfall Events in Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah

Abstract Heavy orographic snowfall can disrupt transportation and threaten lives and property in mountainous regions but benefits water resources, winter sports, and tourism. Little Cottonwood Canyon (LCC) in northern Utah’s Wasatch Range is one of the snowiest locations in the interior western United States and frequently observes orographic snowfall extremes with threats to transportation, structures, and public safety due to storm-related avalanche hazards. Using manual new-snow and liquid precipitation equivalent (LPE) observations, ERA5 reanalyses, and operational radar data, this paper examines the characteristics of cool-season (October–April) 12-h snowfall extremes in upper LCC. The 12-h extremes, defined based on either 95th percentile new snow or LPE, occur for a wide range of crest-level flow directions. The distribution of LPE extremes is bimodal with maxima for south-southwest or north-northwest flow, whereas new-snow extremes occur most frequently during west-northwest flow, which features colder storms with higher snow-to-liquid ratios. Both snowfall and LPE extremes are produced by diverse synoptic patterns, including inland-penetrating or decaying atmospheric rivers from the south through northwest that avoid the southern high Sierra Nevada, frontal systems, post-cold-frontal northwesterly flow, south-southwesterly cold-core flow, and closed low pressure systems. Although often associated with heavy precipitation in other mountainous regions, the linkages between local integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and orographic precipitation extremes in LCC are relatively weak, and during post-cold-frontal northwesterly flow, highly localized and intense snowfall can occur despite low IVT. These results illustrate the remarkable diversity of storm characteristics producing orographic snowfall extremes at this interior continental mountain location. Significance Statement Little Cottonwood Canyon in northern Utah’s central Wasatch Range frequently experiences extreme snowfall events that pose threats to lives and property. In this study, we illustrate the large diversity of storm characteristics that produce this extreme snowfall. Meteorologists commonly use the amount of water vapor transport in the atmosphere to predict heavy mountain precipitation, but that metric has limited utility in Little Cottonwood Canyon where heavy snowfall can occur with lower values of such transport. Our results can aid weather forecasting in the central Wasatch Range and have implications for understanding precipitation processes in mountain ranges throughout the world.

Variable climate-growth relationships of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) among Sky Island mountain ranges in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA

The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island” mountain ranges spanning portions of the north-central Great Basin. We anticipated that the growth of Great Basin aspen would be strongly influenced by regional climatic patterns and largely in synchrony. Results revealed a more complex growth dynamic that varied among mountain ranges and across environmental gradients. In particular, aspen climate-growth relationships in the slightly dryer Ruby Mountains were strongly and positively correlated (r > 0.5) with previous fall to winter moisture availability. The Jarbidge Mountains had a positive but modest relationship with previous fall to winter moisture availability (r > 0.3). Climate-growth response in the Santa Rosa Mountains, the wettest range, showed no significant response to moisture availability during any time period examined but had greater tree-ring growth with warmer May temperatures. Although tree-ring centennial (1910 – 2010) growth trends were positive for all three mountain ranges, only the Santa Rosa Mountains maintained a positive recent growth trend (1970 – 2010). Moreover, distinct temporal shifts in tree growth-climate relationships in each mountain range suggest potentially unique aspen population adaptations to climate variability. For instance, in two of the mountain ranges, there was a shift from positive/neutral to negative growth relationships with temperature starting around the 1963 – 1987 time period, while tree growth also began simultaneously responding more positively to moisture availability. These growth shifts and observed enhanced sensitivities to monthly and seasonal climate variables over time may reflect dynamic tree growth responses caused by ongoing global climate change, but that may be tempered by local or regional factors, such as the relative availability and timing of soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt. A better understanding of biogeographic variation and causality in aspen growth could provide multiple management pathways governed by resilience characteristics in the face of future anthropogenic and climatic threats.

Gradient Analysis and Classification of Tall Forb Communities in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, United States

Tall forb−mixed upland−herb communities are exemplified by high plant diversity and a profusion of luxuriant wildflowers throughout subalpine mountain parklands of the interior western United States. These unique and ecologically important communities remain largely unclassified in terms of their biological and physical attributes and ecological responses to management and disturbances. Land managers need respective classifications to evaluate and guide conservation planning and management for tall forb communities where they occur. In this study, 23 sites from four subalpine areas representing reference tall forb plant communities on the Bridger-Teton National Forest were identified and selected for analysis after a sustained cessation of grazing activities. The purpose of the study was to quantitatively examine tall forb community stands and provide a basis for developing a classification system for identifying future ecological sites, which are essential in conservation planning, implementation and management, and monitoring. Seven tall forb cluster groups were identified with unique plant composition and specific environmental gradients (i.e., plant species richness, diversity indices, elevation, average annual precipitation, surficial geology, three-dimensional geomorphic descriptions, soil clay content diversity dynamics, and foliar, ground, and surface cover). Among the seven cluster groups, we identified 31 families, 112 genera, and 158 plant species on the sample sites (61 species representing native indicator reference species, 86 native secondary indicator species, and 10 introduced non-native species). Beta diversity and plant species turnover ranged from 6.7% to 41.9% among the seven cluster groups, indicating discrete differences in plant species assemblages, plant associations, and site dynamics. The seven tall forb clusters are characteristic of specific and unique plant species composition, species diversity, and environmental factors. Therefore, a specialized site approach with respective guidelines is recommended for assessing and conserving discrete tall forb ecological sites and maintaining key dominant native indicator reference species, rangeland health and proper functioning condition, and defined monitoring protocols.

Vertical transport of water in isolated convective clouds in the interior western United States as observed using airborne in-situ measurements

Redistribution of water by convection is important to the regional and global energy balance, but the characteristics of vertical water transport in convective clouds at different heights are not well understood. In this study, the vertical transport of water in continental isolated convective clouds is investigated using airborne in-situ measurements made in High Plain Cumulus (HiCu) project. The profiles of the mass flux of water vapor and condensed water, and the cloud width and vertical velocity dependency of the relative contribution to the water budget are statistically analyzed. The results show: 1) The probability density functions (PDFs) of the water vapor mass flux were in lognormal distributions and narrowed with height, while the PDFs of the mass flux of condensed water broadened with height from 2 to 8 km. 2) The net flux of vapor decreased significantly with height. Though the flux of condensed water increased with height, the net flux of total water at cloud top was only about 40% of the influx at cloud base. Averagely, about 80% of the observed condensed water at cloud top was in liquid phase. 3) The clouds provided the main contribution to the water vapor flux transit from small-scale at low-levels to medium and large-scale at high-levels. Overall, the clouds in a scale of 1–5 km had the major contribution to the water mass flux. 4) As the clouds developed vertically, stronger drafts accounted for an increasing contribution to the water budget, and most of the upward water transport can be attributed to updraft cores.

Epigaeic spider response to sagebrush steppe restoration treatments

Epigaeic (ground-active) spiders are dominant predators of arthropods and are important prey for vertebrates in sagebrush steppe systems. As part of the Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project (SageSTEP), the response of epigaeic spiders to sagebrush steppe restoration treatments was evaluated. Spiders were pitfall trapped pre-treatment and for up to 7 years post-treatment at 20 sites in the interior western United States. Spider species, functional groups, and communities were analyzed as regards site conditions and in response to treatments (prescribed fire, mechanical, and herbicide) designed to restore sagebrush steppe lands encroached by piñon–juniper woodlands (Pinus and Juniperus spp.) and invaded by cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum). A total of 10,149 epigaeic spiders were caught during the 8-year sampling period (2006–2014), comprising 18 families, 51 genera, and 109 species. Ten species are currently undescribed, including two species of jumping spiders (Salticidae), two species of funnel spiders (Agelenidae), and a species of trapdoor spider (Euctenizidae). Nearly 70% of adult catch comprised the 10 most commonly collected species; 50 species were caught fewer than five times. Spiders of the family Gnaphosidae (ground spiders) dominated the collection (65% of adults), followed by wolf spiders (Lycosidae; 12%), jumping spiders (8%), and crab spiders (Thomisidae; 4%). Fewer gnaphosids were caught in plots with higher tree cover, and this pattern was reversed by tree removal. There was no significant epigaeic spider response to the broadleaf herbicide tebuthiuron, nor to mowing or clear-cutting. Mastication caused a subtle increase in epigaeic spider richness at Utah juniper sites. Prescribed fire decreased abundance and richness of epigaeic spiders in the short term (1 year post-treatment), with catch at most sites converging to control levels by Year 2 post-treatment; application of the annual herbicide imazapic at treeless sites may have amplified this effect slightly in the short term. In general, gnaphosid catch and richness closely paralleled litter and bunchgrass cover. These patterns suggest that while gnaphosid spiders are not sagebrush-obligate species per se, these spiders prefer habitat conditions that provide more hiding cover, in the form of litter and vegetation, found more often in treeless sagebrush steppe plant communities and in woodland communities that have relatively lower tree cover.

Projected Changes in Atmospheric Ridges over the Pacific–North American Region Using CMIP6 Models

Abstract Projected changes in atmospheric ridges and associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are assessed for the end of the twenty-first century in a suite of 27 models contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under a high-end emissions scenario over the Pacific–North American region. Ridges are defined as spatially coherent regions of positive zonal anomalies in 500-hPa geopotential height. The frequency of ridge days in the historical period varies by geography and season; however, ridge days are broadly more common over the region in winter and least common in summer. The CMIP6 models are credible in reproducing key features of reanalysis-derived ridge climatology. The CMIP6 models also reproduce historical temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with ridges. These associations include positive temperature anomalies over and to the west/northwest of the ridge peak and negative precipitation anomalies southeast of the ridge peak. Future projections show a general decrease in ridge days across most of the region in fall through spring, with considerable model agreement. Projections for summer are different, with robust projections of increases in the number of ridge days across parts of the interior western United States and Canada. The CMIP6 models project modest decreases in the probability of stronger ridges and modest increases in the probability of weaker ridges in fall and winter. Future ridges show similar temperature and precipitation anomaly associations as in the historical climate period, when future anomalies are computed relative to future climatology. Significance Statement Atmospheric ridges over the Pacific–North American region are a type of atmospheric circulation pattern associated with important weather and climate impacts. These impacts include heatwaves and drought. This study uses climate models to understand how ridges and their impacts may change under future climate warming. The results suggest that ridge days will be less common across parts of the domain in fall, winter, and spring. In summer, an increase in ridge days is projected in a region centered on Montana. Results suggest that temperature and precipitation patterns associated with ridges will change at a similar rate to the overall mean climate. This work provides evidence that continued climate warming will alter atmospheric circulation over the Pacific–North American region in complex ways.

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

AbstractWildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Potential for Ground-Based Glaciogenic Cloud Seeding over Mountains in the Interior Western United States and Anticipated Changes in a Warmer Climate

AbstractGlaciogenic cloud seeding has long been practiced as a way to increase water availability in arid regions, such as the interior western United States. Many seeding programs in this region target cold-season orographic clouds with ground-based silver iodide generators. Here, the “seedability” (defined as the fraction of time that conditions are suitable for ground-based seeding) is evaluated in this region from 10 years of hourly output from a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 4 km. Seedability criteria are based on temperature, presence of supercooled liquid water, and Froude number, which is computed here as a continuous field relative to the local terrain. The model’s supercooled liquid water compares reasonably well to microwave radiometer observations. Seedability peaks at 20%–30% for many mountain ranges in the cold season, with the best locations just upwind of crests, over the highest terrain in Colorado and Wyoming, as well as over ranges in the northwest interior. Mountains farther south are less frequently seedable, because of warmer conditions, but when they are, cloud supercooled liquid water content tends to be relatively high. This analysis is extended into a future climate, anticipated for later this century, with a mean temperature 2.0 K warmer than the historical climate. Seedability generally will be lower in this future warmer climate, especially in the most seedable areas, but, when seedable, clouds tend to contain slightly more supercooled liquid water.

Impact of global warming on snow in ski areas: A case study using a regional climate simulation over the interior western United States

AbstractA high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulation conducted with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to investigate potential impacts of global warming on skiing conditions in the interior western United States (IWUS). Recent past and near-future climate conditions are compared. The past climate period is from November 1981 to October 2011. The future climate applies to a 30-year period centered on 2050. A pseudo global warming approach is used, with the driver re-analysis dataset perturbed by the CMIP5 ensemble mean model guidance. Using the 30-year retrospective simulation, a vertical adjustment technique is used to determine meteorological parameters in the complex terrain where ski areas are located. For snow water equivalent (SWE), Snow Telemetry sites close to ski areas are used to validate the technique and apply a correction to SWE in ski areas. The vulnerability to climate change is assessed for 71 ski areas in the IWUS considering SWE, artificially produced snow, temperature, and rain. 20 of the ski areas will tend to have fewer than 100 days per season with sufficient natural and artificial snow for skiing. These ski areas are located at either low elevations or low latitudes making these areas the most vulnerable to climate change. Throughout the snow season, natural SWE decreases significantly at the low elevations and low latitudes. At higher elevations changes in SWE are predicted to not be significant in the mid-season. In mid-February, SWE decreases by 11.8% at the top elevations of ski areas while it decreases by 25.8% at the base elevations.

A 30-Yr Climatology of Meteorological Conditions Associated with Lightning Days in the Interior Western United States

AbstractA 30-yr climatology of lightning days and associated synoptic meteorological patterns are characterized across the interior western United States (WUS). Locally centered composite analyses show preferred synoptic meteorological patterns with positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies located to the northeast and negative sea level pressure anomalies to the northwest and collocated with local lightning days. Variations in preferred patterns for local lightning days are seen across the interior WUS. Areas not commonly affected by the North American monsoon system including the western Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountains show higher-amplitude anomalies of geopotential height, moisture, and midtropospheric instability patterns suggesting the importance of episodic midlatitude dynamics to lightning days in such locations. By contrast, locations closer to the core of the North American monsoon show weaker anomalies, likely reflecting the prevalence of favorable mesoscale dynamics key to lightning production during warm-season months in locations in the interior Southwest. Meteorological patterns for select locations are explored in more detail and two case studies of notably active lightning events are presented. Results from this observational analysis provide a foundation for evaluating meteorological conditions on lightning days in climate model simulations for the interior WUS.

Modeling Invasive Annual Grass Abundance in the Cold Desert Ecoregions of the Interior Western United States

Invasive annual grasses, primarily Bromus tectorum, are a severe risk to native vegetation of the intermountain West. Once established, annual grasses alter natural fire regimes and outcompete natives until, in some places, they become the overwhelming dominant. We developed a regional spatial model encompassing eight ecoregions to indicate the relative abundance of invasive annual grass at five levels of canopy cover. We used field sample data representing invasive annual grass abundance to build and calibrate the model. Explanatory variables, represented as map inputs, included image indices, climate, landform, soil, and human-induced surface disturbance. As a novel modeling approach, we built multiple models based on classes of invasive annual grass cover abundance were developed individually and then combined into a final 90-m pixel resolution model that indicates locations relative to invasive annual grass abundance into classes of < 5%, 5−15%, 16−25%, 26−45%, and > 45% cover. Each component model was validated using held-out sample data, and relative accuracy was 86%, 74%, 62%, 62%, and 60%, respectively, with an overall kappa of 0.773. The Columbia Plateau, Northern Basin and Range, and Snake River Plain ecoregions appear to have the greatest overall proportions (48−62%) mapped within at least one of the invasive cover categories. Overlay of the resulting model with major vegetation types indicated > 50 major vegetation types that are affected by current distribution of annual grasses and are at risk of expansion. Among these, Intermountain Basins, Big Sagebrush Steppe, and Columbia Plateau Steppe and Grassland each consistently scored high for invasive risk where they occur. Spatial models of this type should assist with rangeland restoration and for decisions involving placement of infrastructure, vegetation treatments where further surface disturbance could trigger additional cheatgrass expansion. Options exist for extending this model, using climate projections over upcoming decades, to indicate areas of increasing risk for invasion.

Contributions of fire refugia to resilient ponderosa pine and dry mixed‐conifer forest landscapes

AbstractAltered fire regimes can drive major and enduring compositional shifts or losses of forest ecosystems. In western North America, ponderosa pine and dry mixed‐conifer forest types appear increasingly vulnerable to uncharacteristically extensive, high‐severity wildfire. However, unburned or only lightly impacted forest stands that persist within burn mosaics—termed fire refugia—may serve as tree seed sources and promote landscape recovery. We sampled tree regeneration along gradients of fire refugia proximity and density at 686 sites within the perimeters of 12 large wildfires that occurred between 2000 and 2005 in the interior western United States. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to elucidate statistical relationships between tree regeneration and refugia pattern, including a new metric that incorporates patch proximity and proportional abundance. These relationships were then used to develop a spatially explicit landscape simulation model. We found that regeneration by ponderosa pine and obligate‐seeding mixed‐conifer tree species assemblages was strongly and positively predicted by refugia proximity and density. Simulation models revealed that for any given proportion of the landscape occupied by refugia, small patches produced greater landscape recovery than large patches. These results highlight the disproportionate importance of small, isolated islands of surviving trees, which may not be detectable with coarse‐scale satellite imagery. Findings also illustrate the interplay between patch‐scale resistance and landscape‐scale resilience: Disturbance‐resistant settings (fire refugia) can entrain resilience (forest regeneration) across the burn matrix. Implications and applications for land managers and conservation practitioners include strategies for the promotion and maintenance of fire refugia as components of resilient forest landscapes.

Ambient Factors Controlling the Wintertime Precipitation Distribution across Mountain Ranges in the Interior Western United States. Part II: Changes in Orographic Precipitation Distribution in a Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation

AbstractTwo high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations over a 10-yr period are conducted to study the changes in wintertime precipitation distribution across mountain ranges in the interior western United States (IWUS) in a warming climate. One simulation represents the current climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo–global warming approach. The climate perturbations are derived from the ensemble mean of 15 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These simulations provide an estimate of average changes in wintertime orographic precipitation enhancement and finescale distribution across mountain ranges. The variability in these changes among CMIP5 models is quantified using statistical downscaling relations between orographic precipitation distribution and upstream conditions, developed in Part I. The CMIP5 guidance indicates a robust warming signal (~2 K) over the IWUS by ~2050 but minor changes in relative humidity and cloud-base height. The IWUS simulations reveal a widespread increase in precipitation on account of higher precipitation rates during winter storms in this warmer climate. This precipitation increase is most significant over the mountains rather than on the surrounding plains. The increase in precipitation rate is largely due to an increase in low-level cross-mountain moisture transport. The application of the statistical relations indicates that individual CMIP5 models disagree about the magnitude and distribution of orographic precipitation change in the IWUS, although most agree with the ensemble-mean-predicted orographic precipitation increase.

Livestock management, beaver, and climate influences on riparian vegetation in a semi-arid landscape.

Riparian and aquatic habitats support biodiversity and key environmental processes in semi-arid and arid landscapes, but stressors such as conventional livestock grazing, wildfire, and drought can degrade their condition. To enhance habitat for fish and wildlife and increase resiliency in these critical areas, land managers in the interior western United States increasingly use alternative grazing strategies, beaver management, or beaver dam surrogates as low-effort, low-expense restoration approaches. In this study we used historical archives of satellite and aerial imagery spanning three decades to characterize riparian vegetation productivity and document beaver dam occurrences, then evaluated vegetation productivity relative to land management associated with livestock grazing and beaver dam densities while accounting for climate and wildfire. After controlling for stream characteristics such as stream size, elevation, and stream slope, we demonstrate a positive response of riparian area vegetation to conservation-oriented grazing approaches and livestock exclosures, extensive beaver dam development, increased precipitation, and lack of wildfire. We show that livestock management which emphasizes riparian recovery objectives can be an important precursor to beaver activity and describe 11–39% increases in floodplain vegetation productivity where conservation-oriented grazing approaches or livestock exclosures and high beaver activity occur together on low-gradient sites. Land management decisions can therefore potentially confer resiliency to riparian areas under changing and variable climate conditions–the increased vegetation productivity resulting from conservation-oriented grazing or exclosures and high amounts of beaver activity at our sites is the equivalent to moving conventionally-grazed, low-gradient sites without beaver up at least 250 m in elevation or increasing water year precipitation by at least 250 mm.

What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures, Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation?

AbstractSimulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔTair = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = −30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to −7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow.

Ambient Factors Controlling the Wintertime Precipitation Distribution Across Mountain Ranges in the Interior Western United States. Part I: Insights from Regional Climate Simulations

AbstractThis study analyzes the control of upstream conditions on the distribution of wintertime precipitation across mountain ranges in the interior western United States using 10 winters of high-resolution regional climate model data. Three mountain ranges, the Wind River Range, the Park Range, and the Teton Range, are selected to explore the statistical relations between the precipitation distribution and upstream wind, stability, and cloud conditions. A 4-km-resolution simulation is used for the former two ranges, and a 1.33-km-resolution simulation driven by the 4-km-resolution simulation is used for the Teton Range, which is smaller and steeper. Across all three mountain ranges, the dominant factor controlling precipitation is the mountain-normal low-level wind speed. Statistically, stronger wind results in heavier precipitation and a lower upwind precipitation fraction. The low-level wind generally veers with height during precipitation events, but the amount of veering does not unambiguously affect the precipitation distribution or intensity. The more the terrain blocks the upstream flow, the more the precipitation shifts toward the upstream side of the mountain and the weaker the overall precipitation rate is. A higher cloud-base temperature and a lower cloud-base height typically are associated with heavier precipitation. Deeper clouds tend to produce heavier precipitation and a slightly lower windward/leeward contrast. Convective precipitation proportionally falls more on the lee slopes than stratiform precipitation. The upstream and macroscale cloud conditions identified herein predict both the mean precipitation rate and the upwind precipitation fraction very well for the three ranges studied here.

Transgressive-phase barriers as indicators of basin-wide lake-level changes in late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah, USA

Lake Bonneville was the largest of the late Pleistocene pluvial lakes that once filled part of the Great Basin of the interior western United States. As the lake reached its highest level at the Bonneville shoreline and overflowed, it eroded through landslide deposits and alluvium near Red Rock Pass, Idaho, and quickly dropped over 100 m to the Provo shoreline. This unique flooding history and resulting rapid lake-level fall allows us to assume that all shorelines with elevations between the Bonneville and Provo levels (the intermediate shorelines) formed during the lake's transgressive phase. Various types of depositional features characterize the transgressive-phase shorelines, including barrier spits and bayhead barriers. This study uses 5 m auto-correlated digital elevation models (DEMs), airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), and ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys to measure the internal and external structure of intermediate barriers. Analysis of 102 barriers at 26 different locations further documents the lake's constructional shorelines while employing a statistical approach to show patterns in basin-wide lake levels. These methods identify only one confidently correlatable intermediate shoreline at an adjusted elevation of 1530 m (±4 m), providing evidence of a still-water level during the late-transgressive phase of Lake Bonneville. The variability of elevations along barrier crests indicates that the formation of depositional features is highly dependent on local wave climate, in addition to basin-scale climatic controls.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.