Interim Reanalysis Dataset Research Articles

Abundant Precipitation in Qilian Mountains Generated from the Recycled Moisture over the Adjacent Arid Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

The observed precipitation was suggestive of abundant precipitation in upstream Qilian mountains and low precipitation in the downstream oasis and desert in an endorheic basin. However, precipitation in mountains generated from the recycled moisture over oasis and desert areas has rarely been studied. The climatological patterns of water vapor from 1980 to 2017 in the Qilian Mountain Region (QMR) and Hexi Corridor Region (HCR) were investigated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis dataset and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 reanalysis dataset. The results suggest that the precipitable water content decreases from the adjacent to the mountain areas. There are two channels that transport water vapor from the HCR to the QMR in the low troposphere (surface—600 hPa), suggesting that parts of recycled moisture generated from evapotranspiration over the oasis and desert of the HCR is transported to the QMR, contributing to the abundant precipitation in the QMR. This indicates that the transport mechanism is probably because of the “cold and wet island effect” of the cryosphere in QMR. This is likely one of the essential mechanisms of the water cycle in endorheic river basins, which has rarely been reported.

Characteristics and Synoptic Patterns of Regional Extreme Rainfall over the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

In this research, the observation datasets from 106 gauge stations over the central and eastern areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim reanalysis datasets in the summers of 1981–2016 are used to study the characteristics and synoptic patterns of extreme precipitation events over the TP. By using a modern statistical method, the abnormal circulation characteristics at high, middle, and low latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during extreme precipitation events over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau are discussed, and the physical mechanisms related to the extreme precipitation events are investigated. The results show that the largest amount of extreme precipitation is found in the southern and eastern areas of the TP, where the frequency of daily extreme rainfall events (exceeding 25 mm) and the frequency of all extreme precipitation events both show obvious quasi-biweekly oscillation. When the daily extreme precipitation event threshold over the TP is met and more than 5 stations show daily extreme precipitation at the same time, with at least three of them being adjacent to each other, this is determined as a regional extreme precipitation event. As such, 33 regional daily extreme precipitation events occur during the summer periods of 1981–2016. According to the influence system, the 33 regional extreme precipitation events can be divided into three types, namely the plateau trough type, the plateau shear line type, and the plateau vortex type. For the plateau trough type, the South Asian high is anomalously strong at 100 hPa. For the other two types, the South Asian high is slightly weaker than usual. For the plateau shear line type, the development of the dynamic disturbance is the strongest, reaching 200 hPa. In the plateau trough type and plateau vortex type, the water vapor is transported by the westerly belt and the southwesterly flow from the Bay of Bengal.

Analysis of source regions and meteorological factors for the variability of spring PM10 concentrations in Seoul, Korea

CSEOF analysis is applied for the springtime (March, April, May) daily PM10 concentrations measured at 23 Ministry of Environment stations in Seoul, Korea for the period of 2003–2012. Six meteorological variables at 12 pressure levels are also acquired from the ERA Interim reanalysis datasets. CSEOF analysis is conducted for each meteorological variable over East Asia. Regression analysis is conducted in CSEOF space between the PM10 concentrations and individual meteorological variables to identify associated atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode. By adding the regressed loading vectors with the mean meteorological fields, the daily atmospheric conditions are obtained for the first five CSEOF modes. Then, HYSPLIT model is run with the atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode in order to back trace the air parcels and dust reaching Seoul. The K-means clustering algorithm is applied to identify major source regions for each CSEOF mode of the PM10 concentrations in Seoul. Three main source regions identified based on the mean fields are: (1) northern Taklamakan Desert (NTD), (2) Gobi Desert and (GD), and (3) East China industrial area (ECI). The main source regions for the mean meteorological fields are consistent with those of previous study; 41% of the source locations are located in GD followed by ECI (37%) and NTD (21%). Back trajectory calculations based on CSEOF analysis of meteorological variables identify distinct source characteristics associated with each CSEOF mode and greatly facilitate the interpretation of the PM10 variability in Seoul in terms of transportation route and meteorological conditions including the source area.

Influence of sudden stratospheric warming and quasi biennial oscillation on western disturbance over north India

This study demonstrates the variability in Western Disturbance during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) period and its eventual influence on the north Indian weather pattern. The modulations in the north Indian winter under the two phases of the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during SSW periods are also examined. The analysis has been carried out by using the ERA interim reanalysis dataset for different pressure levels in the stratosphere and upper troposphere during the time period of 1980–2010. The daily minimum surface temperature data published by India Meteorological Department from 1969 to 2013 has been used for the analysis of temperature anomaly over north India during SSW. The period of intense stratospheric warming witnesses a downward propagation and intensification of kinetic energy from stratosphere to upper troposphere over the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. When QBO is in easterly phase, the cooling over north India is much larger when compared to the westerly phase during instances of SSW. SSW coincident with the easterly phase of QBO causes an intensified subtropical jet over the mid-latitude regions. The modulation in circulation pattern in stratosphere and upper troposphere when ENSO occurs during SSW period is also analysed separately. This study provides the link among SSW, Western Disturbances and the north Indian cooling during winter season.

Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone genesis and its relationship to the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific

ABSTRACTUsing the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis data set and the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data obtained from the International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship project from June to November for the epoch of 1979–2013, this study reexamines the recent interdecadal shift in TC genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s. An interdecadal decrease in the frequency of the WNP TC genesis was observed during 1998–2013 compared to the period of 1979–1997. The spatial distribution of the interdecadal decrease of the WNP TC genesis running northwest‐southeast, consistent with the monsoon trough (MT) zone. The results imply that the WNP genesis may be closely related to the MT on the interdecadal timescale. After the late 1990s, the intensity of the WNP MT becomes weaker and it extends more westward, thereby providing an unfavourable condition for the TC genesis. Through a diagnosis of the energetics, we suggested that the barotropic energy conversion in the eastern part of the WNP MT tends to be weakened in the late 1990s, hence less energy to support the WNP TC genesis. Both the meridional shear and the convergence of the mean zonal winds over the eastern WNP MT have an important impact on the conversion from mean kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy, which can be considered as the atmospheric cause of the interdecadal decrease of TC genesis.

Climatological aspects of cyclonic tracks associated with flood events in Crete, Greece

In this study, an attempt was made to identify the tracks of the synoptic-scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete, a Greek island in the southern Aegean Sea and to investigate their kinematic and dynamic characteristics and vertical structure for a period of 25 years. Furthermore, a comparison is made with the corresponding characteristics of the population of surface cyclones passing over Crete during the same period. The Melbourne University Cyclone Tracking Algorithm was employed to examine the genesis and movement of these cyclones while their vertical profile was examined with the aid of the vertical tracing software, Vertical Tracking Scheme (VTS). The input data are based on ERA INTERIM reanalysis datasets with resolution 0.5° × 0.5° during the period 1990 to 2014. It was found that the vast majority originate mainly over the north African coasts, contrasting the preference of all cyclones passing over Crete to develop within the Southeast Mediterranean. Cyclones associated with the flood events are more intense than the cyclonic population, being mainly characterized by long duration and track length. Furthermore, they reveal characteristics of vertically organized baroclinic systems, suggesting that they are mainly driven by baroclinic processes at upper and lower levels.

Simulated Asian-Australian monsoon with a spectral element atmospheric general circulation model

A low-top version of SEMANS (Spectral Element Model with Atmospheric Near Space resolved) has been used to carry out numerical simulation on characteristics of Asian- Australian Monsoon (A-AM) in the work. The simulation results are validated with ERA- Interim reanalysis dataset and precipitation data from satellite remote sensing. It's shown that the model can reproduce the major climatic features of A-AM with stronger easterly in the tropical Eastern Pacific, and a weaker northerly component in the Northern Hemisphere.The simulated precipitation rate is larger and the double ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) in the tropical Eastern Pacific in the northern spring is not reproduced. A due to the absence of variation longer than a year in the bottom boundary conditions, the model cannot reproduce the relationships between the monsoon indexes and the surface air temperature in the broad area near the equator.

Performance evaluation of WRF-Noah Land surface model estimated soil moisture for hydrological application: Synergistic evaluation using SMOS retrieved soil moisture

Summary This study explores the performance of soil moisture data from the global European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis datasets using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather model coupled with the Noah Land surface model for hydrological applications. For evaluating the performance of WRF for soil moisture estimation, three domains are taken into account. The domain with best performance is used for estimating the soil moisture deficit (SMD). Further, several approaches are presented in this study to evaluate the efficiency of WRF simulated soil moisture for SMD estimation and compared against Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) downscaled and non-downscaled soil moisture. In this study, the first approach is based on the empirical relationship between WRF soil moisture and the SMD on a continuous time series basis, while the second approach is focused on the vegetation cover impact on SMD retrieval, depicted in terms of growing and non-growing seasons. The linear growing and non-growing seasonal model in combination performs well with the NSE = 0.79, RMSE = 0.011 m; Bias = 0.24 m, in comparison to linear model (NSE = 0.70, RMSE = 0.013 m; Bias = 0.01 m). The performance obtained using WRF soil moisture is comparable to SMOS level 2 product but lower than the downscaled SMOS datasets. The results indicate that methodologies could be useful for modelers working in the field of soil moisture information system and SMD estimation at a catchment scale. The study could be useful for ungauged basins that pose a challenge to hydrological modeling due to unavailability of datasets for proper model calibration and validation.

Normal-mode function representation of global 3-D data sets: open-access software for the atmospheric research community

Abstract. This article presents new software for the analysis of global dynamical fields in (re)analyses, weather forecasts and climate models. A new diagnostic tool, developed within the MODES project, allows one to diagnose properties of balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) circulations across many scales. In particular, the IG spectrum, which has only recently become observable, can be studied simultaneously in the mass and wind fields while considering the whole model depth in contrast to the majority of studies. The paper includes the theory of normal-mode function (NMF) expansion, technical details of the Fortran 90 code, examples of namelists which control the software execution and outputs of the software application on the ERA Interim reanalysis data set. The applied libraries and default compiler are from the open-source domain. A limited understanding of Fortran suffices for the successful implementation of the software. The presented application of the software to the ERA Interim data set reveals several aspects of the large-scale circulation after it has been partitioned into the linearly balanced and IG components. The global energy distribution is dominated by the balanced energy while the IG modes contribute around 10% of the total wave energy. However, on sub-synoptic scales, IG energy dominates and it is associated with the main features of tropical variability on all scales. The presented energy distribution and features of the zonally averaged and equatorial circulation provide a reference for the validation of climate models.

Seasonal evaluation of evapotranspiration fluxes from MODIS satellite and mesoscale model downscaled global reanalysis datasets

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in hydrological modeling, which is not always available, especially for ungauged catchments. Satellite data, such as those available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global datasets via the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis are important sources of information for ETo. This study explored the seasonal performances of MODIS (MOD16) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaled global reanalysis datasets, such as ERA interim and NCEP-derived ETo, against ground-based datasets. Overall, on the basis of the statistical metrics computed, ETo derived from ERA interim and MODIS were more accurate in comparison to the estimates from NCEP for all the seasons. The pooled datasets also revealed a similar performance to the seasonal assessment with higher agreement for the ERA interim (r = 0.96, RMSE = 2.76 mm/8 days; bias = 0.24 mm/8 days), followed by MODIS (r = 0.95, RMSE = 7.66 mm/8 days; bias = −7.17 mm/8 days) and NCEP (r = 0.76, RMSE = 11.81 mm/8 days; bias = −10.20 mm/8 days). The only limitation with downscaling ERA interim reanalysis datasets using WRF is that it is time-consuming in contrast to the readily available MODIS operational product for use in mesoscale studies and practical applications.

Long-term variability of cold surges in Korea

Cold surge statistics have been analyzed from the 52-year (1961–2012) winter temperature data archived at Korea Meteorological Administration. Despite a significant winter warming in South Korea, there is no statistically affirmable sign of the occurrence frequency, duration and total days of cold surges to have changed in the record; there is little abatement in the frequency, duration, and total days of cold surges. Thermal advection anomalies were also derived from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA interim reanalysis datasets. Cold surges defined in terms of thermal advection anomalies do not exhibit any statistically significant change either. The increased mean and the decreased variance of thermal advection both indicate that cold advection from north has, in fact, decreased gradually in South Korea. It appears that cold surges are statistically rare enough to be affected by increased mean and decreased variance of thermal advection. Polar warming is often interpreted as weakening of jet stream and increasing southward flux of cold air. Analysis of thermal advection, on the other hand, does not show increased advection of cold air from north in South Korea.

Probabilistic Model for Wind Speed Variability Encountered by a Vessel

As a result of social awareness of air emission due to the use of fossil fuels, the utilization of the natural wind power resources becomes an important option to avoid the dependence on fossil resources in industrial activities. For example, the maritime industry, which is responsible for more than 90% of the world trade transport, has already started to look for solutions to use wind power as auxiliary propulsion for ships. The practical installation of the wind facilities often requires large amount of investment, while uncertainties for the corresponding energy gains are large. Therefore a reliable model to describe the variability of wind speeds is needed to estimate the expected available wind power, coefficient of the variation of the power and other statistics of interest, e.g. expected length of the wind conditions favorable for the wind-energy harvesting. In this paper, wind speeds are modeled by means of a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. Its dependence structure is localized by introduction of time and space dependent parameters in the field. The model has the advantage of having a relatively small number of parameters. These parameters have natural physical interpretation and are statistically fitted to represent variability of observed wind speeds in ERA Interim reanalysis data set.

Dynamical downscaling of the precipitation in Northeast Brazil with a regional climate model during contrasting years

AbstractThe aim of this work is to evaluate how the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) is able to simulate the precipitation in Northeast Brazil (NEB). Therefore, high‐resolution (grid spacing of 20 km) simulations during the autumns of 1998 and 1999 were performed. The model was able to capture regional and inter‐annual differences of the precipitation in NEB. The RegCM4 simulations showed improved in the prediction concerning the intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall, relative to the Era Interim reanalysis dataset. The experiment based on Emanuel MIT parameterization tends to overestimate the observed precipitation while the Grell experiment underestimates it.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

Abstract. Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture–atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958–2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.