Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Special Report Research Articles

Implications of Deglobalization on Energy and Carbon Neutrality in Asia and the Pacific Region

ABSTRACTThe IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C urged the world to move toward carbon neutrality (CN). Following the announcement by European countries of their CN target by 2050, Japan, South Korea, and the USA announced their CN targets by 2050. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has divided the world and drastically changed energy markets, including natural gas. Moreover, the EU is now implementing controversial policies on carbon border adjustment mechanisms which may impose a heavier burden on developing countries. This study discusses how global divisions may influence energy strategies and climate policy for various Asian countries.

Making policy-relevant knowledge in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees: An analysis of reviewer comments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintains a fine balance between scientific credibility and policy-relevance. The IPCC’s review process plays an important role in ensuring that this takes place. This paper looks at the review process of the Summary for Policymakers of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees (SR15) published in 2018. We apply a framework for the making of policy-relevant knowledge – that of salience, legitimacy, and credibility – to investigate the acts of knowledge selection, and conflicts over what constitutes policy-relevant knowledge on climate change. We find that knowledge is shaped through discussions surrounding the themes of scope, communication, framing, and IPCC procedures and evidence, and that these themes were articulated in different ways in relation to salience, credibility and legitimacy. Our analysis shows how the practices of salience, legitimacy and credibility interact with each other in the making of policy-relevant knowledge. In particular we see that a focus on credibility and salience, whilst central may take place at the expense of legitimacy. Overall we see that this interplay in the review was important in shaping the story of the SR15, and the knowledge that gets included in the final SPM.

A history of the 1.5°C target

AbstractThe 1.5°C target is now widely considered as the maximum acceptable limit for global warming. However, it is at once recent and, as it appears increasingly unreachable, already almost obsolete. Adopted as an aspirational target in the Paris Agreement in 2015, the 1.5°C objective originated with a political impetus within UNFCCC negotiations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) endorsed this policy‐driven target when it produced the Special Report on 1.5°C. This article highlights the continuity of the history of the 1.5°C target with that of the 2°C target, but also the differences between the two. Because the 1.5°C target considerably raises the bar on mitigation efforts, it exacerbates political tensions and ambiguities that were already latent in the 2°C target. This article retraces the emergence of the 1.5°C in diplomatic negotiations, the preparation of the IPCC Special report on 1.5°C, and the new kinds of debates they provoked among climate scientists and experts. To explain how an unreachable target became the reference for climate action, we analyze the “political calibration” of climate science and politics, which can also be described as a codependency between climate science and politics.This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Assessment Modeling Climate, History, Society, Culture > World Historical Perspectives Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

‘Neutral’ Representations of Pacific Islands in the IPCC Special Report of 1.5°C Global Warming

ABSTRACT Pacific Islands are facing some of the most immediate and direct impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report of 1.5°C Global Warming (SR15) outlines the possibility that some low-lying atolls will become uninhabitable by 2030 and submerged by 2100. I analyse how and where SR15 presents climate change impacts for Pacific Islands. In doing so, I seek to highlight to what extent the IPCC’s structures and pressures influence SR15’s marginalisation of or emphasis on Pacific perspectives and challenges. The main findings that emerge from this discourse analysis are, first, that climate change impacts for Pacific Islands are largely conceptualised as relating to the physical environment and the economy. Second, SR15 frames Pacific Islands as vulnerable; however, it appears to be reflecting a shift in the literature toward recognising Pacific adaptation and resilience. The third finding is that the IPCC explicitly defines and acknowledges Indigenous and local knowledge but frames this knowledge as alternative to scientific expertise. I interpret these findings in the context of the underrepresentation of Pacific authors, the availability of published knowledge for assessment and the IPCC’s claims of neutrality. Pacific leaders and communities continue to advocate for the 1.5°C threshold investigated in SR15 and are mobilising IPCC assessments.

Equity and justice as central components of climate change adaptation

Equity and justice as central components of climate change adaptation

Assessing nature-based solutions for transformative change

Assessing nature-based solutions for transformative change

Boundary Work and Interpretations in the IPCC Review Process of the Role of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C

Paris Agreement-compatible emissions pathways produced by integrated assessment models (IAMs) often rely on large amounts of carbon dioxide removals, especially afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). These pathways feature prominently in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the extent that the IAMs have been granted an interpretative privilege at the interface between climate science, economics, and policymaking. The privilege extends to and influences climate governance, including governance of BECCS. This paper contributes to recent debates about the role of the IPCC, and its framing of BECCS, at the science-policy interface. By analyzing all BECCS-related expert review comments and author responses on the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, the paper shows that boundary work influences the representation of BECCS by authors referring to: (1) a limited scope or capacity; (2) a restrictive mandate; (3) what constitutes legitimate science, and; (4) relativizing uncertainties. The responses to the review comments indicate a significant degree of compliance on behalf of the authors. Yet, the revisions do not seem to go to the heart of the unease that runs through many of the reviewer comments, i.e., that BECCS seems to be presented as a viable CDR technology at grand scale. While several revisions serve to clarify uncertainties surrounding BECCS, some fundamental aspects of the critique are deflected, through the boundary work identified. What the analysis reveals, beyond a dissatisfaction among many reviewers with the focus on integrated assessment modeling, the associated pathway literature, and analysis of BECCS, is a disagreement about how model results should be interpreted and communicated. While acknowledging the herculean task of the IPCC and the efforts to improve the pathway literature that the SR1.5 triggered within the IAM communities, we argue that the identified boundary work also risks entrenching rather than problematize dominant framings of the feasibility of BECCS. Such entrenchment can counteract the ambition of opening up the scientific work of the IPCC to include more diversity in the process of drafting reports, and arguably also influence the governance of CDR.

Gaining Acceptance of Novel Plant Breeding Technologies.

Ensuring the sustainability of agriculture under climate change has led to a surge in alternative strategies for crop improvement. Advances in integrated crop breeding, social acceptance, and farm-level adoption are crucial to address future challenges to food security. Societal acceptance can be slow when consumers do not see the need for innovation or immediate benefits. We consider how best to address the issue of social licence and harmonised governance for novel gene technologies in plant breeding. In addition, we highlight optimised breeding strategies that will enable long-term genetic gains to be achieved. Promoted by harmonised global policy change, innovative plant breeding can realise high and sustainable productivity together with enhanced nutritional traits.

The determinants of planetary health

The determinants of planetary health

Liquid Thermo-Responsive Smart Window Derived from Hydrogel

Summary Buildings account for 40% of global energy consumption, while windows are the least energy-efficient part of buildings. Conventional smart windows only regulate solar transmission. For the first time, we developed high thermal energy storage thermo-responsive smart window (HTEST smart window) by trapping the hydrogel-derived liquid within glasses. The excellent thermo-responsive optical property (90% of luminous transmittance and 68.1% solar modulation) together with outstanding specific heat capacity of liquid gives the HTEST smart window excellent energy conservation performance. Simulations suggested that HTEST window can cut off 44.6% heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption compared with the normal glass in Singapore. In outdoor demonstrations, the HTEST smart window showed promising energy-saving performance in summer daytime. Compared with conventional energy-saving glasses, which need expensive equipment, the thermo-responsive liquid-trapped structure offers a disruptive strategy of easy fabrication, good uniformity, and scalability, together with soundproof functionality that opens an avenue for energy-saving buildings and greenhouses.

Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal

The 1.5°C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed.

Now or Never: How Media Coverage of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C Shaped Climate-Action Deadlines

Media coverage of climate change has increased since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5°C, and numerous articles cite 2030 deadlines for action. Such messaging can galvanize public engagement, but it might also prompt complex negative responses. As 2030 targets approach, more innovative, co-produced communication will be critical to engaging inclusive audiences.

Facilitating Climate-Smart Investments

The financial sector will play a key role in transitioning toward low-carbon and climate-resilient development, but financial decision makers need tailored information to guide climate-smart investment decisions. Here, we reflect upon the Sustainable Edge report and investor engagement to pilot a new approach to climate-risk assessment for companies.

Enhancing the contribution and role of practitioner knowledge in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group (WG) II process: Insights from UK workshops

This perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. The objective is to facilitate practitioner input into the detailed choice of topics and priorities for IPCC review and in the conclusions drawn (we define practitioners as those engaged in the development and application of practical responses to climate change on the ground). By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decision-makers in the United Kingdom, the research reported here illuminates how the IPCC’s Working Group II (WGII) has been used in the past to inform decision-making and how practitioner responses to climate change could better inform the IPCC process in the future. In particular, we recommend three key actions. Firstly that IPCC WGII should incorporate more practitioners as authors to improve the awareness and understanding amongst the writing teams of the nature and detail of decisions being made in response to climate change; secondly a practitioner-led IPCC Special Report should be commissioned on good-practice responses to climate change; and thirdly a new body should be created, attached to the IPCC, to synthesise and report on good practice on climate response strategies in a timely manner. By adopting these recommendations, the IPCC could become more directly useful to decision-makers working on adaptation at the national, regional and local levels and enable more actionable decision-making.

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX) in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs) ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management impacts, such as irrigation or dam regulation, were not considered in this study. However, the results provide local policy makers with quantitative data to consider possible adjustment of future dam capacities for development of flood control policies.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Assessment of Surface Runoff Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Lerma-Chapala Basin, Mexico

AbstractThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that vulnerability to climate change depends on three main factors: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Each factor was evaluated in a hydrologic context; for instance, exposure was interpreted as a change in surface runoff. Factors were combined using a geographic information system (GIS), and an overall methodology was proposed to map hydrologic vulnerability. The Lerma-Chapala basin was selected as a case study since the largest water body in Mexico is located at its outlet. The long-term rate of change in surface runoff was estimated considering the variation in future precipitation from 23 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and by using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. Two climate change scenarios from an IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2100) were chosen. Results showed a decrease in surface runoff of up to 29% (A1B-2100) in the northern...

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 건물부분의 영향

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

Climate simulation and future projection of precipitation and the water vapor budget in the Haihe River basin

The climatological characteristics of precipitation and the water vapor budget in the Haihe River basin (HRB) are analyzed using daily observations at 740 stations in China in 1951–2007 and the 4-time daily ERA40 reanalysis data in 1958–2001. The results show that precipitation and surface air temperature present significant interannual and interdecadal variability, with cold and wet conditions before the 1970s but warm and dry conditions after the 1980s. Precipitation has reduced substantially since the 1990s, with a continued increase of surface air temperature. The total column water vapor has also reduced remarkably since the late 1970s. The multi-model ensemble from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has capably simulated the 20th century climate features and successfully reproduced the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Unfortunately, the models do not reproduce the interdecadal changes. Based on these results, future projections of the climate in the HRB are discussed under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2. The results show that precipitation is expected to increase in the 21st century, with substantial interannual fluctuations relative to the models’ baseline climatology. A weak increasing trend in precipitation is projected before the 2040s, followed by an abrupt increase after the 2040s, especially in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10%–18% by the end of the 21st century. Due to the persistent warming of surface air temperature, water vapor content in the lower troposphere is projected to increase. Relative humidity will decrease in the mid-lower troposphere but increase in the upper troposphere. On the other hand, precipitation minus evaporation remains positive throughout the 21st century. Based on these projection results, the HRB region is expected to get wetter in the 21st century due to global warming.