Intergovernmental Organizations Research Articles

Model Legislation of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association: Harmonization instead of Unification

Since 1996 the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has been extremely successful in preparing and promoting model acts that have been implemented in more than 80 jurisdictions, including the Russian Federation. This circumstance is unique because ISDA, unlike intergovernmental organizations in the field of harmonization and unification of private law, does not have the status of an international organization, being a non-profit corporation. Nevertheless, its model laws, being in demand by legislators from different countries, put ISDA’s activities in the field of harmonization of private law on a par with such international organizations as Unidroit and UNCITRAL. The paper provides a brief description of the basics of the activities of this association. Special attention is given to the preparation of standard framework agreements and terms of contracts. The evolution of its model legislation is traced in detail, including the model laws of 1996, 2002, 2006 and 2018. It is noted that up to 2018, there was a tendency to expand privileges for derivative transactions, including in terms of their types and degree of protection. However, after the collapse of the leading investment bank Lehman Brothers and the subsequent global financial crisis, regulatory approaches to derivatives privileges changed, which was reflected in the latest ISDA model Act.

SEEIIST – a new research facility for tumor treatment and biomedical investigations with proton and ion beams

Abstract Purpose A project for the establishment of an international intergovernmental scientific organization in the region of South East Europe (South East European Institute for Sustainable Technologies - SEEIIST) is currently in progress. SEEIIST is an intergovernmental effort supported by nine countries from the region (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo (This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.), Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia, while Switzerland is an observer). The main goals of the project are to establish a unique research infrastructure and to form a research nucleus in the region of South-East Europe, to boost the technology transfer from European laboratories like CERN and others, to promote collaboration between science, technology, and industry, to mitigate tensions between countries in the region, and to provide platforms for the development of education. Methods The research infrastructure will include a powerful next-generation accelerator that will provide proton and ion beams for tumor treatment and biomedical research. The center will comprise of three rooms for patient treatment and two large experimental halls. Results A wide pre-clinical and clinical research program in the fields of radiobiology, medical physics, medical imaging, biophysical modeling and planning of patient treatment, design and investigation of new materials, production of isotopes for diagnosis, and treatment of patients are envisaged. Conclusions This infrastructure is unique for Europe and will attract researchers from all European countries to perform their investigations.

Regulatory Standards and Guidance for the Use of Health Apps for Self-Management in Sub-Saharan Africa: Scoping Review.

Health apps are increasingly recognized as crucial tools for enhancing health care delivery. Many countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, can substantially benefit from using health apps to support self-management and thus help to achieve universal health coverage and the third sustainable development goal. However, most health apps published in app stores are of unknown or poor quality, which poses a risk to patient safety. Regulatory standards and guidance can help address this risk and promote patient safety. This review aims to assess the regulatory standards and guidance for health apps supporting evidence-based best practices in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on self-management. A methodological framework for scoping reviews was applied. A search strategy was built and applied across the following databases, gray literature sources, and institutional websites: PubMed, Scopus, World Health Organization (WHO) African Index Medicus, OpenGrey, WHO Regional Office for Africa Library, ICTworks, WHO Directory of eHealth policies, HIS Strengthening Resource Center, International Telecommunication Union, Ministry of Health websites, and Google. The search covered the period between January 2005 and January 2024. The findings were analyzed using a deductive descriptive content analysis. The policy analysis framework was adapted and used to organize the findings. The Reporting Items for Stakeholder Analysis tool guided the identification and mapping of key stakeholders based on their roles in regulating health apps for self-management. The study included 49 documents from 31 sub-Saharan African countries. While all the documents were relevant for stakeholder identification and mapping, only 3 regulatory standards and guidance contained relevant information on regulation of health apps. These standards and guidance primarily aimed to build mutual trust; promote integration, inclusion, and equitable access to services; and address implementation issues and poor coordination. They provided guidance on systems quality, software acquisition and maintenance, security measures, data exchange, interoperability and integration, involvement of relevant stakeholders, and equitable access to services. To enhance implementation, the standards highlight that legal authority, coordination of activities, building capacity, and monitoring and evaluation are required. A number of stakeholders, including governments, regulatory bodies, funders, intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, academia, and the health care community, were identified to play key roles in regulating health apps. Health apps have huge potential to support self-management in sub-Saharan Africa, but the lack of regulatory standards and guidance constitutes a major barrier. Hence, for these apps to be safely and effectively integrated into health care, more attention should be given to regulation. Learning from countries with effective regulations can help sub-Saharan Africa build a more robust and responsive regulatory system, ensuring the safe and beneficial use of health apps across the region. RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025714.

CARTEL TO PLAYER: OPEC DYNAMICS IN THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET

The OPEC, since its establishment in 1960 as a cartel and regime, has been largely controlling the global energy supply and price regulations, and thus, playing a pivotal role in the global geopolitics of energy security. However, the journey of this inter-governmental organisation till date, as a predominant energy cartel, from cartel dominance and regional geopolitics to global competition and climate change challenges, has not been an easy one. Although OPEC has been going through ups and downs in the global energy market, the requirement of petroleum resources by the global community for economic growth and the developmental process cannot be ignored. Therefore, the role of OPEC is likely to be prominent at least till the mid-2030s as indicated by various energy reports. This research paper is intended to test the hypothesis that in spite of internal dissent and discontent, price war and rise of OPEC+, exploration of shale energy, focus for energy transition, OPEC will have an unmatchable share in the global energy basket and remain a dominant player in the global energy market and geopolitics, at least for the near future. The paper also focuses on how the Russia-Ukraine war has united OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers further to control the global energy market Which benefits both.

Institutional overlap and the survival of intergovernmental organisations

A burgeoning literature emphasises the role of favourable external conditions and institutional design as key drivers of the survival of intergovernmental organisations. This article focuses on institutional overlap as a hitherto overlooked determinant of IGO survival. Studies on institutional complexity posit that overlap – the extent to which organisations perform similar tasks to address similar problems for some common members – may decrease the survivability of IGOs due to rule conflicts, institutional paralysis, and competitive pressures for limited resources. Contrary to this perspective, this article argues that greater overlap increases the likelihood of IGO survival for two reasons. First, similar IGOs will survive as member states use them to pursue forum-shopping strategies. Second, overlap enables IGO secretariats to draw on networks of support from other IGOs, rendering organisations that densely overlap with others more resilient. To test these propositions, the article combines data on institutional overlap in global governance and the survival of the 534 IGOs contained in the Correlates of War IGO dataset. Non-linear regression analysis finds that where organisations overlap more with existing organisations in terms of governance tasks and issue areas, the likelihood of IGO survival increases. Further analysis suggests that this result is driven by the forum-shopping strategies of powerful member states. Given that contemporary world politics is governed by an increasingly dense network of IGOs, these results hold important implications for the study of IGO survivability and the evolution of global governance more broadly.

To the Question of the Methodology for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Integration Associations on the Example of ASEAN and EAEU

This study is aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the EAEU and ASEAN taking into account the dynamics of their development as well as identify the features of methodological approaches using for assessing the effectiveness of integration associations.Aim. A comparative analysis of ASEAN and EAEU in terms of the effectiveness of these associations, as well as an analysis of existing methodological approaches for assessing the effectiveness of regional integration structures.Tasks. Carry out monitoring of existing methods of assessing the effects of international economic integration and approaches of assessing the effectiveness of integration associations in general. To identify the “weaknesses” of the applied methodological approaches and to formulate practical recommendations for an objective and comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of international integration associations.Methods. The article uses the comparative analysis method, SWOT analysis method, the gravity method and a system of indicators of Eurasian integration.Results. We have to admit that there is still no methodology that allows to compare the effectiveness of various integration blocks correctly. Therefore, it is advisable to evaluate integration associations only comprehensively taking into account not only economic indicators but also political factors.Conclusion. At the moment there is no comprehensive methodology that would allow to compare the effectiveness of various integration structures and intergovernmental organizations in terms of clearly defined quantitative and qualitative indicators. The study revealed that all applied methods have a number of errors that complicate an objective assessment. The lack of relevant data and statistics on a number of key parameters, the complexity of accounting and analysis of intangible factors of production and cooperation, ignoring possible negative effects from integration and a number of other problems make it impossible to build a comprehensive methodology for assessing the effectiveness of regional integration.

Positive affect during adolescence and health and well-being in adulthood: An outcome-wide longitudinal approach.

Several intergovernmental organizations, including the World Health Organization and United Nations, are urging countries to use well-being indicators for policymaking. This trend, coupled with increasing recognition that positive affect is beneficial for health/well-being, opens new avenues for intervening on positive affect to improve outcomes. However, it remains unclear if positive affect in adolescence shapes health/well-being in adulthood. We examined if increases in positive affect during adolescence were associated with better health/well-being in adulthood across 41 outcomes. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study using data from Add Health-a prospective and nationally representative cohort of community-dwelling U.S. adolescents. Using regression models, we evaluated if increases in positive affect over 1 year (between Wave I; 1994 to 1995 and Wave II; 1995 to 1996) were associated with better health/well-being 11.37 years later (in Wave IV; 2008; N = 11,040) or 20.64 years later (in Wave V; 2016 to 2018; N = 9,003). Participants were aged 15.28 years at study onset, and aged 28.17 or 37.20 years-during the final assessment. Participants with the highest (versus lowest) positive affect had better outcomes on 3 (of 13) physical health outcomes (e.g., higher cognition (β = 0·12, 95% CI = 0·05, 0·19, p = 0.002)), 3 (of 9) health behavior outcomes (e.g., lower physical inactivity (RR = 0·80, CI = 0·66, 0·98, p = 0.029)), 6 (of 7) mental health outcomes (e.g., lower anxiety (RR = 0·81, CI = 0·71, 0·93, p = 0.003)), 2 (of 3) psychological well-being (e.g., higher optimism (β = 0·20, 95% CI = 0·12, 0·28, p < 0.001)), 4 (of 7) social outcomes (e.g., lower loneliness (β = -0·09, 95% CI = -0·16, -0·02, p = 0.015)), and 1 (of 2) civic/prosocial outcomes (e.g., more voting (RR = 1·25, 95% CI = 1·16, 1·36, p < 0.001)). Study limitations include potential unmeasured confounding and reverse causality. Enhanced positive affect during adolescence is linked with a range of improved health/well-being outcomes in adulthood. These findings suggest the promise of testing scalable positive affect interventions and policies to more definitively assess their impact on outcomes.

Challenges and progress in applying space technology in support of the sustainable development goals

The global community, with coordination from the United Nations, is energized to pursue the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a list of 17 important aspirations that summarize the key challenges of our era. The SDGs apply to every nation and represent an international effort to eliminate extreme poverty, ensure access to safe drinking water, strengthen food security, and produce clean and reliable energy, among other pursuits. Space technology is already being used around the world to advance progress toward the SDGs and monitor their related Indicators. This paper explores how six technologies related to space—satellite Earth observation, satellite communication, satellite navigation and positioning, human spaceflight and microgravity research, space technology transfer, and basic scientific research—are being used to realize the vision that the SDGs represent. The paper also discusses the obstacles that limit the application of these technologies for the SDGs and provides an overview of potential paths to overcome these barriers. The paper finally studies the historical and potential roles that four distinct types of entities involved in global sustainable development—governments, non- and inter-governmental organizations, entrepreneurial companies, and universities— have played or may play in the application of space technologies towards the SDGs.

Globalization and Nation State

Globalization has introduced new and diverse challenges for the nation state not only in terms of managing rapid economic and cultural integration, but also with respect to governance and decision-making. Globalization, as a concept, contradicts the traditional understanding of the primacy of the nation-state in the world order and introduces a possibility for parallel existence of various non-state actors such as Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and International non-governmental organizations (INGOs). In recent decades, the growth of transnational groups - both political activist groups and dangerous terrorist organizations - also shows the ways in which modern technologies and globalization can challenge and possibly undermine the state’s ability to protect its borders and pursue its goals. In other words, the sovereign state has been continuously challenged, both internally and externally. Therefore, globalization has a serious influence on the concept of sovereignty, which is a basic element upon which the existence of the nation-state depends. The present paper examines how globalization has impacted nation states on various fronts.

Gendered expectations and the framing of Afghan women in peacebuilding: a critical discourse analysis

ABSTRACT Despite the invaluable role that women play in the peacebuilding process, statistics still show this as a male-dominated field. Since media narratives have the power to frame reality providing the public with preferred lenses to understand it, this study asks, How do media narratives frame the role of Afghan women in conflict resolution? To address this question, we combine Frame Theory (Entman, R. M. (1993). Framing: Toward clarification of a fractured paradigm. Journal of Communication, 43(4), 51–58) and Critical Discourse Analysis (van Dijk, T. A. (2015). Critical discourse analysis. In D. Tannen, H. E. Hamilton, & D. Schiffrin (Eds.), The handbook of discourse analysis (pp. 466–485). Wiley Blackwell) to explore media narratives before and after the Taliban came into power in August 2021. The samples include 32 articles published between 2018 and 2022 on different sources ranging from traditional news outlets to magazines, newsrooms, intergovernmental organizations, and think tanks. Findings show that media narratives perpetuate unfair gendered expectations, failing to effectively render the irreplaceable role of women in peacebuilding. Frames confirm the double bind of hegemonic femininity (Schneiker, A. (2021). The UN and women's marginalization in peace negotiations. International Affairs, 97(4), 1165–1182) as women are subject to different expectations – the exception presents them as courageous, yet the norm frames them as being too vulnerable and without a voice.

Global liberalism, emerging illiberalism, and human rights, 1980 to 2018

The international institutions established after 1945 enshrine and expand human rights norms. Recently, the global liberal order has been challenged by a variety of illiberal oppositions. We discuss how the trajectories of global liberalism and illiberal challenges may affect country human rights practices in both direct and diffuse ways. Hybrid panel regression models of human rights scores for 158 countries from 1980 to 2018 evaluate our arguments. We observe direct effects of global liberalism: countries linked to liberal organizations in world society have higher scores on measures of human rights practices. The growth of global liberalism also explains a great deal of within-country variation in human rights practices over time. However, recent illiberal challenges have the opposite effect. Countries linked to illiberal intergovernmental organizations are less respectful of human rights, and the global rise of illiberalism undermines human rights. We conclude with reflections on the importance of the global institutional and normative context for sustaining (and eroding) human rights.

Causes of preventable death among children of female sex worker mothers in low- and middle-income countries: A community knowledge approach investigation.

Female sex workers (FSW) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are disproportionately vulnerable to poor health, social, and economic outcomes. The children of female sex workers (CFSW) experience health risks based on these challenging circumstances and the unique conditions to which they are exposed. Although country child mortality data exist, little is known about the causes of death among CFSW specifically, thereby severely limiting an effective public health response to the needs of this high-risk group of children. The Community Knowledge Approach (CKA) was employed between January and October 2019 to survey a criterion sample of 1280 FSW participants across 24 cities in eight LMIC countries. Participants meeting pre-determined criteria provided detailed reports of deaths among the CFSW within their community of peers. Newborn deaths were gleaned from FSW maternal death reports where the infants also died following birth. Of the 668 child deaths reported, 589 were included in the analysis. Nutritional deficiencies comprised the leading cause of mortality accounting for 20.7% of deaths, followed closely by accidents (20.0%), particularly house fires, overdoses (19.4%), communicable diseases (18.5%), and homicides (9.8%). Other reported causes of death included neonatal conditions, respiratory illnesses, and suicides. The causes of CFSW death in these eight countries are preventable with improved protections. Governments, intergovernmental organisations like the United Nations, nongovernmental stakeholder organisations (e.g. sex worker organisations), and funders can implement targeted policies and programmes to protect CFSW and assist vulnerable FSW who are pregnant and raising children. Further research is needed to identify effective child welfare safeguards for CFSW.

Interests convergence in global human rights politics

Abstract What explains the convergence and divergence of states’ interests related to global human rights? This study examines the dyadic similarity of the language used in the multilateral dialogue focusing on the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). The joint activities of NGOs influence states, and human rights norms are transmitted through IGOs. Using text analysis methods, the similarity between state recommendations during the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) process at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) is systematically quantified. Analyses suggest that a pair of states are more likely to use similar language in UPR recommendations as the number of joint activities of NGOs, shared memberships in IGOs, and shared experience in the UNHRC increases. The effects are robust even after controlling for different types of political relationships between states.

The water flow diagram

IntroductionThe Water Flow Diagram (WFD) is a novel advocacy and communication tool that presents urban water supply and management in a simple visualization. Rapid urbanization, growing populations, and the climate crisis increase the pressure on water resources, particularly in urbanized areas. The WFD aims to foster a dialogue around conflict of interests and opportunities among different stakeholders, and trigger actions toward more sustainable urban water management (UWM), as well as a water secure future.MethodThe WFD is produced from data on water abstraction, water use of different sectors, water treatment, water recycling and contamination risks. The data were obtained from government services, wastewater and water utilities, large industries, universities and reports of intergovernmental organizations. If these sources did not have data, reports from NGOs or consultants, comparable contexts, default values or expert judgements were considered. The annual water flows are presented in a Sankey Diagram. An intuitive color code highlights the flows as “problematic” or “appropriate” and points to areas where UWM practices should be improved.Results and conclusionsThe final diagrams are a concise instrument that identifies challenges of UWM in the four application cases presented in this article. Key challenges that became evident included: pollution from agricultural production, the lack of wastewater and sanitation infrastructure, high water losses in the distribution networks, water exports leading to a lack in local supply and sewer overflows during heavy rainfalls. Opportunities identified were the need to: invest in sanitation and wastewater to protect resources, create coordination bodies to align conflict of interests, and/or invest in blue-green infrastructure for rainwater retention. The WFD triggered local actions, such as in-depth discussions between relevant actors, the formation of integrated water use committees and the interest of the national ministry in Senegal to replicate the diagram for other locations. This article presents the methodology, discusses the four case studies and deliberates on the prospective use of the WFD.

Scoping an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for the southern Benguela: fisheries still biggest risk

Abstract The southern Benguela ecosystem faces complex pressures from anthropogenic activities and climate change, leading to structural and functional changes. To counter ecosystem service losses, intergovernmental marine science organizations propose integrated management. However, predictions to evaluate alternative strategies are challenging due to multifaceted sector interactions affecting ecological components. Scoping phases of Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA), such as the Options for Delivering Ecosystem-Based Marine Management (ODEMM), identify priority sectors and pressures for management using linkage chains and impact risk scores. This study expands a South African-wide ODEMM assessment to investigate dependent sectors in the southern Benguela. Fishing emerged as the primary sector, exhibiting high connectance and impact risk on ecological components. Disaggregation of the fishing sector into sub-sectors and over three 21-year time periods revealed the demersal trawl and mixed species inshore trawl sectors to still have the greatest impact despite recent mitigation efforts, driven by species extraction, bycatch, and ‘incidental loss’. Research gaps, such as the effects of recreational fisheries and underwater noise, were identified and need to be addressed to improve future ecosystem assessments. Additionally, the effects of climate on long-term, ecosystem-scale variability and change need more attention in IEAs and should be incorporated into frameworks such as ODEMM.

Equity and gender mainstreaming in public policy: A scoping review protocol.

Despite growing attention paid to health equity and efforts to promote gender mainstreaming-a global strategy to promote gender equality-how policymakers have 'institutionalized' this in their work is less clear. Therefore, this planned scoping review seeks to search the peer-reviewed and grey literature to compile evidence on the ways in which policymakers have routinely or systematically considered equity and/or gender in their work. A scoping review will be undertaken by drawing on the PRISMA guidelines for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). With the expert guidance of a research librarian, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, PAIS Index, and Scopus databases will be searched, in addition to custom Google searches of government documents. The search will be conducted from 1995 and onwards, as there were no hits prior to this date that included the term "gender mainstream*" in these databases. The inclusion criterion is that: (i) texts must provide information on how equity and/or gender has been considered by government officials in the development of public policy in a routine or systematic manner (e.g., descriptive, empirical); (ii) both texts produced by government or not (e.g., commentary about government action) will be included; (iii) there are no restrictions on study design or article type (i.e., commentaries, reports, and other documents, would all be included); and (iv) texts must be published in English due to resource constraints. However, texts that discuss the work of nongovernmental or intergovernmental organizations will be excluded. Data will be charted by: bibliographic information, including the authors, year, and article title; country the text discussed; and a brief summary on the approach taken. This protocol was developed to improve rigour in the study design and to promote transparency by sharing our methods with the broader research community. This protocol will support a scoping review of the ways in which policymakers have routinely or systematically considered equity and/or gender in their work. We will generate findings to inform government efforts to initiate, sustain, and improve gender and equity mainstreaming approaches in policymaking.

Mediated crises and strategic crisis communication of third sector organizations: a content analysis of crisis reporting in six countries

PurposeThis study aims to contribute to strategic crisis communication research by exploring international media representations of third sector crises and crisis response; expanding the range of crisis types beyond transgressions; and developing a framework that integrates framing and crisis communication theory.Design/methodology/approachQuantitative content analysis was applied to identify patterns in crisis reporting of 18 news media outlets in Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, UK and US. Using an inductive framing approach, crisis coverage of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) between 2015 and 2018 was analyzed across a wide range of crises, including but not limited to prominent cases such as Oxfam, Kids Company, or the Islamic Research Foundation.FindingsThe news media in six countries report more internal crises in the third sector than external crises. The most frequent crisis types were fraud and corruption, sexual violence/personal exploitation and attacks on organizations. Exploratory factor analysis revealed three components of crisis response strategies quoted in the media, conditional rebuild, defensive and justified denial strategies. Causal attributions and conditional rebuild strategies significantly influenced media evaluations of organizational crisis response. Three frames of third sector crises were detected; the critique, the damage and the victim frame. These frames emphasize different crisis types, causes, crisis response strategies and evaluations of crisis response.Originality/valueThe study reveals the particularities of crises and crisis communication in the third sector and identifies factors that influence mediated portrayals of crises and crisis response strategies of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) from an international comparative perspective. The findings have relevant implications for crisis communication theory and practice.

The Century-Long Struggle for the Leadership of World Sport

In less than a century, sport has evolved from a hobby for a few European gentlemen into a global phenomenon involving people from all walks of life and of all ages. Media coverage of large sport events, especially the modern Olympic Games, has contributed greatly to increasing and widening sport’s appeal and turning it into an activity enjoyed by countless millions of people of both sexes, whether grassroots participants, spectators or elite athletes. Three types of organizations have sought to lead world sport: (1) The International Olympic Committee, which awards Olympic Games to host cities; (2) international sport federations, each of which establishes universal rules for its sport and recognizes national federations; and (3) certain governments and intergovernmental organizations. The century-long geopolitical struggle for the leadership of world sport can be divided into five periods. Although the International Olympic Committee currently holds the upper hand, the emergence of new actors may threaten its dominant position.

US wildlife trade data lack quality control necessary for accurate scientific interpretation and policy application

AbstractInternational wildlife trade data are frequently used by government agencies, conservation organizations, and scientific researchers to study and protect species from overexploitation and prevent the spread of invasive species and introduction of zoonotic pathogens. Inaccurate data can lead to mistaken conclusions by researchers, the development of unsuccessful remedial conservation actions, and provide government officials with incorrect views of detrimental trade. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) maintains the world's most comprehensive national dataset of legal and illegal international wildlife trade recorded by individual shipments and species in its Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS). Although the importance of LEMIS data is not to be understated, the errors and inconsistencies contained therein have not previously been adequately recognized or studied. Based on firsthand experiences with the creation and application of LEMIS data, this manuscript describes a variety of errors, biases, omissions, and an overall lack of data quality assurance. An independent audit of the LEMIS wildlife trade database and the service's policies, procedures, and protocols for managing this system is needed. Additional recommendations are also offered to develop better management standards and bring greater resources for managing LEMIS, asking the nongovernmental organization and intergovernmental organization user communities to play a role.

A reproducible ensemble machine learning approach to forecast dengue outbreaks

Dengue fever, a prevalent and rapidly spreading arboviral disease, poses substantial public health and economic challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks on a countrywide scale is complex due to spatiotemporal variations in dengue incidence across administrative areas. To address this, we propose a machine learning ensemble model for forecasting the dengue incidence rate (DIR) in Brazil, with a focus on the population under 19 years old. The model integrates spatial and temporal information, providing one-month-ahead DIR estimates at the state level. Comparative analyses with a dummy model and ablation studies demonstrate the ensemble model’s qualitative and quantitative efficacy across the 27 Brazilian Federal Units. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of this approach to Peru, another Latin American country with differing epidemiological characteristics. This timely forecast system can aid local governments in implementing targeted control measures. The study advances climate services for health by identifying factors triggering dengue outbreaks in Brazil and Peru, emphasizing collaborative efforts with intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions. The innovation lies not only in the algorithms themselves but in their application to a domain marked by data scarcity and operational scalability challenges. We bridge the gap by integrating well-curated ground data with advanced analytical methods, addressing a significant deficiency in current practices. The successful transfer of the model to Peru and its consistent performance during the 2019 outbreak in Brazil showcase its scalability and practical application. While acknowledging limitations in handling extreme values, especially in regions with low DIR, our approach excels where accurate predictions are critical. The study not only contributes to advancing DIR forecasting but also represents a paradigm shift in integrating advanced analytics into public health operational frameworks. This work, driven by a collaborative spirit involving intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions, sets a precedent for interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges. It not only enhances our understanding of factors triggering dengue outbreaks but also serves as a template for the effective implementation of advanced analytical methods in public health.