Interest Rate Surprises Research Articles

Monetary policy shocks and the high-frequency network connectedness of stock markets

We study the high-frequency impact of monetary policy decisions on the structure of financial market networks, using 1-second return data for 10 industry-level equity indices in the United States. We find that FOMC meetings and policy surprises have a significant influence on network connectedness in returns, volatility, skewness, and kurtosis. The information related to policy decisions instantly shocks and is quickly dissipated throughout the financial network. Network connectedness shocks are positively impacted by the magnitude of interest rate surprises, with asymmetric effects by sign and nonlinear effects being weak. Our results have implications for monetary policy, systemic risk, and asset pricing.

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

Abstract We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings.

Perceptions about Monetary Policy

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, including over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about this rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings.

US Interest Rate Surprises and Currency Returns

US Interest Rate Surprises and Currency Returns

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Impacts of the Monetary Policy Committee decisions on the foreign exchange rate in Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of interest rate decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on foreign exchange (FX) rate in Brazil. Two new daily measures of interest rate surprises are proposed using market and survey data. The results indicate a significant effect of MPC's decisions on FX returns. In particular, the surprise variable based on market data is statistically significant to explain FX returns and has a negative sign, as expected (a positive surprise implies an appreciation of the domestic currency). Moreover, this effect is symmetric, in terms of positive or negative surprises, and does not depend on the level of Selic interest rate. Nonetheless, the surprise variable is not significant to explain FX returns in recent years, under a single-digit interest rate regime. Robustness exercises—using GARCH models or including FX market official intervention series as additional controls—corroborate the previous findings.

Foreign effects of higher U.S. interest rates

This paper analyzes the spillovers of higher U.S. interest rates on economic activity in a large panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. We allow the response of GDP in each country to vary according to its exchange rate regime, trade openness, and a vulnerability index that includes current account, foreign reserves, inflation, and external debt. We document large heterogeneity in the response of advanced and emerging economies to U.S. interest rate surprises. In response to a U.S. monetary tightening, GDP in foreign economies drops about as much as it does in the United States, with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies. In advanced economies, trade openness with the United States and the exchange rate regime account for a large portion of the contraction in activity. In emerging economies, the responses do not depend on the exchange rate regime or trade openness, but are larger when vulnerability is high.

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

AbstractThis paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.

Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations

Because they engage in maturity transformation, a steepening of the yield curve should, all else equal, boost bank profitability. We re-examine this conventional wisdom by estimating the reaction of bank stock returns to exogenous fluctuations in interest rates induced by monetary policy announcements. We construct a new measure of the mismatch between the repricing time or maturity of bank assets and liabilities and analyze how the reaction of stock returns varies with the size of this mismatch and other bank characteristics. The results indicate that bank stock prices decline substantially following an unanticipated increase in the level of interest rates or a steepening of the yield curve. A large maturity gap, however, significantly attenuates the negative reaction of returns to a slope surprise, a result consistent with the role of banks as maturity transformers. Share prices of banks that rely heavily on core deposits decline more in response to policy-induced interest rate surprises, a reaction that primarily reflects ensuing deposit disintermediation. Results using income and balance sheet data highlight the importance of adjustments in quantities--as well as interest margins--for understanding the reaction of bank equity values to interest rate surprises.

Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the spillovers of higher U.S. interest rates on economic activity in a large panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. We allow the response of GDP in each country to vary according to its exchange rate regime, trade openness, and a vulnerability index that includes current account, foreign reserves, inflation, and external debt. We document large heterogeneity in the response of advanced and emerging economies to U.S. interest rate surprises. In response to a U.S. monetary tightening, GDP in foreign economies drops about as much as it does in the United States, with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies. In advanced economies, trade openness with the United States and the exchange rate regime account for a large portion of the contraction in activity. In emerging economies, the responses do not depend on the exchange rate regime or trade openness, but are larger when vulnerability is high.

A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks

Central bank announcements contain both: - a stance on monetary policy - an assessment of the economic outlook When expecting strong growth, central banks usually raise interest rates to stabilize the economy. But an announcement of interest rates higher than the market anticipated may change market participants’ beliefs, leading them to conclude the economy is stronger than they thought. When policy makers and researchers assess monetary non-neutrality, they must consider the distinction between the effect of the central bank’s monetary policy stance and the effects of a shift in fundamentals. I measure this distinction by constructing a monetary policy shock series and applying it to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements. In particular, I examine the high-frequency movements of interest rates in a 30-minute window around the time of the Federal Reserve’s announcement. Because the announcement may reshape expectations about future monetary policy, I use changes in contract rates of interest rate futures settled in both the current and subsequent months. I then project these surprises onto the Federal Reserve’s information set, which is measured by its own economic forecasts preceding each announcement. The monetary policy stance shock is the portion of interest rate surprises which cannot be explained by the economic forecasts. I estimate the causal effects of monetary policy on the financial market and the macro economy using the constructed monetary policy stance shock as an instrument variable. My findings are consistent with the traditional channels of monetary policy non-neutrality. A contractionary monetary policy shock will cause: - an upward revision in private forecasts of the unemployment rate - a downward revision in private forecasts of inflation - a decline in stock prices

Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of ECB unconventional monetary policies across euro area countries

We assess the effects of recent ECB’s unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures by estimating a global VAR that exploits panel variation amongst all euro area economies and explicitly takes into account cross-country interdependencies. Most euro area members benefit from these measures but with substantial heterogeneity, whose extent has been evolving over time and peaked with the sovereign debt crisis. Cross-country spillovers account for a sizable fraction of such dispersion, and substantially amplify effects. Countries with more fragile banking systems benefit the least from unconventional monetary policy measures, and especially so in terms of output gains. Importantly, this heterogeneity implies that the effects on real activity of the whole currency union get substantially dampened. In this respect, we also document that UMP shocks imply significantly smaller and less persistent effects than those arising from conventional interest rate surprises.

Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This paper studies the impact of interest rate news surprises on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices, using a dataset which covers interest rate announcements and forecasts, as well as stock and bond indices in three Islamic and eight non-Islamic countris. We find that interest rate surprises tend to have a smaller impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic than conventional bonds because Islamic bonds are structured to avoid explicit interest rates. However, interest rate surprises have about the same or bigger impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic relative to conventional stocks, despite the low amounts of cash and debt holdings of firms comprising Islamic stock indices.

Do monetary policy announcements affect stock prices in emerging market countries? The case of Thailand

We examine the effect of monetary policy announcements in Thailand, which is one of emerging market countries in Asia, on stock prices at the firm level. We find that the expected change, rather than the unexpected change, in interest rates affects stock prices. The stock price response to the interest rate announcement is asymmetric. For instance, the relation between interest rate surprises and stock prices is conditional on the direction of the interest rate change. In general, macroeconomic conditions and firm characteristics cannot explain the stock price reaction to the announcement. In addition, stock prices of firms in different industries appear to react heterogeneously to the interest rate announcement.

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Stock Prices in Emerging Market Countries? The Case of Thailand

We examine the effect of monetary policy announcements in Thailand, which is one of emerging market countries in Asia, on stock prices at the firm level. We find that the expected change, rather than the unexpected change, in interest rates affects stock prices. The stock price response to the interest rate announcement is asymmetric. For instance, the relation between interest rate surprises and stock prices is conditional on the direction of the interest rate change. In general, macroeconomic conditions and firm characteristics cannot explain the stock price reaction to the announcement. In addition, stock prices of firms in different industries appear to react heterogeneously to the interest rate announcement.

The impact of FOMC statements on the volatility of asset prices

This article examines the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements on asset prices. Statements are found to have a much more pronounced impact on the volatility of asset prices than interest rate surprises. They influence primarily stock returns, intermediate and long-term yields, whereas short-term rates are driven both by statements and by interest rate surprises. We also find that the regime shift of May 1999 has improved the effectiveness of monetary policy, as reflected in an overall reduction in market volatility during the most recent regime. In addition, markets are equally well-prepared for the upcoming rate decision in both regimes, but the process of adjustment depends on whether a statement was issued in the old regime or not. When a statement is issued, price adjustments are very similar across both periods, whereas if no statement is issued then the rate of adjustment towards the new value is more gradual and occurs throughout the entire intermeeting period.

Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The Case of the Mexican Peso/U.S. Dollar from 2005–2009

That an implied volatility can be extracted from the market price for an option is well known. Less familiar is the fact that with a set of options with the same maturity and a range of strike prices, an estimate of the entire risk-neutral probability density (RND) can be extracted without the need to specify the market’s option pricing model. There are several alternative ways to do this in the literature, and the authors examine two of them. The behavior of the RND provides a detailed look at how the market’s (risk-neutral) expectations respond to important information events, such as a change in the interest rate target followed by the central bank. In this article, the authors look at how these monetary policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Banco de Mexico are reflected in the market for FX options on the peso/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The results show that the exchange rate RNDs do respond significantly to interest rate surprises, and the extraction procedure that completes the RND by adding tails from a generalized extreme value distribution appears to have more success in capturing extreme values than does the alternative procedure that imposes a tail shape.

Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations

Because they engage in maturity transformation, a steepening of the yield curve should, all else equal, boost bank profitability. We re-examine this conventional wisdom by estimating the reaction of bank intraday stock returns to exogenous fluctuations in interest rates induced by monetary policy announcements. We construct a new measure of the mismatch between the repricing time or maturity of bank assets and liabilities and analyze how the reaction of stock returns varies with the size of this mismatch and other bank characteristics, including the usage of interest rate derivatives. Our results indicate that bank stock prices decline substantially following an unanticipated increase in the level of interest rates or a steepening of the yield curve. A large maturity gap, however, significantly attenuates the negative reaction of returns to a slope surprise, a result consistent with the role of banks as maturity transformers. Share prices of banks that rely heavily on core deposits decline more in response to policy-induced interest rate surprises, a reaction that primarily reflects ensuing deposit disintermediation. Results using income and balance sheet data highlight the importance of adjustments in quantities--as well as interest margins--for understanding the reaction of bank equity values to interest rate surprises.

International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices

This paper analyzes intraday changes in firm‐level equity prices around interest rate announcements to assess the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to the global economy. We document that foreign firms on average are roughly as sensitive to U.S. monetary policy as U.S. firms, although we also find considerable cross‐sectional variation across firms. In particular, foreign stocks in cyclically sensitive industries show stronger responses to interest rate surprises, consistent with a demand channel of policy transmission. In addition, transmission of U.S. policy appears to be stronger to economies with fixed exchange rates. Evidence for a credit channel is weaker.