Interest Rate Smoothing Research Articles

Taylor rules during a pandemic: a counterfactual exercise

ABSTRACT We conduct a counterfactual exercise to determine the potential effectiveness of conventional monetary policy to limit the economic damage caused by labour market uncertainties related to a pandemic. We model the labour market uncertainty as a second-order shock to a time-varying job separation rate. We show that the economic effects of heightened uncertainty in the job separation rate depend crucially on the Taylor-rule type adopted by the monetary authority. We explore the quantitative implications of pandemic-induced job separation uncertainty shocks under alternative interest rate rules and find that recessions following job separation uncertainty shocks are more severe under rules with no interest rate smoothing and strong inflation targeting.

DYNAMICS OF OPTIMUM MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY: A NEW-KEYNESIAN DSGE MODEL FOR TURKISH ECONOMY

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of business cycle fluctuations in a small open economy (SOE) using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and to assess the path of optimal policy decisions taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). To that purpose, the SOE-DSGE model is estimated using the Bayesian technique with Turkish data spanning the quarters 2003Q2–2020Q1. Based on the estimated model, the study finds that the explanatory power of the SOE-DSGE model for household, firm and central bank behavior decreases when consumer habit formation, price indexation and exchange rate sensitivity are included. Furthermore, technology, preferences, and risk premium shocks all have a significant impact on the Turkish economy. The CBRT, on the other hand, was principally concerned with price stabilization, interest rate smoothing, output and output growth stabilization, and nominal exchange rate stabilization, respectively. More importantly, the optimal monetary policy function implies that output growth should be better stabilized if exchange rate sensitivity target is ignored.

Application of Taylor Rule Fundamentals in Forecasting Exchange Rates

This paper examines the effectiveness of the Taylor rule in contemporary times by investigating the exchange rate forecastability of selected four Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries vis-à-vis the U.S. It employs various Taylor rule models with a non-drift random walk using monthly data from 1995 to 2019. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by analyzing the pre- and post-financial crisis periods for forecasting exchange rates. The out-of-sample forecast results reveal that the best performing model is the symmetric model with no interest rate smoothing, heterogeneous coefficients and a constant. In particular, the results show that for the pre-financial crisis period, the Taylor rule was effective. However, the post-financial crisis period shows that the Taylor rule is ineffective in forecasting exchange rates. In addition, the sensitivity analysis suggests that a small window size outperforms a larger window size.

MONETARY POLICY RULES IN MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE AND THAILAND

This paper investigates whether monetary policies in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are best represented by either the Taylor rule or the augmented Taylor rule. It finds that the augmented Taylor rule, which incorporates the exchange rate and government spending, best represents monetary policies in these countries. The results show that past inflation and the output gap play a role in the monetary policy reaction function in Malaysia and Thailand. The results further show a strong preference towards interest rate smoothing, government spending, and the exchange rate by the central banks.

Micro-level transmission of monetary policy shocks: The trading book channel.

We open the black box of the monetary policy transmission mechanism with a granular model that considers the balance-sheet composition and network relationships of each economic agent. Though there are several well-documented channels through which monetary policy operates, we focus on the overlooked trading book channel, which arises because of adjustments in the accounting value of trading book exposures on banks’ balance sheets that have to be marked to market when interest rates change. Variations in banks’ net worth due these adjustments are used as input to a network model that incorporates the financial and corporate sectors. The framework permits us to determine the effects of interest rate changes on every bank and firm in the economy and any second-round (contagion) effects in the short run. We apply the model to a comprehensive database of Brazilian banks and firms from 2015 to 2020. We find that interest rate shocks affect more strongly financial stability in periods of monetary policy tightening. We also find notable asymmetric effects of positive and negative interest rate shocks in the Brazilian economy, with positive interest rate shocks affecting more financial stability. Finally, our results also suggest a non-linear relationship between interest rate changes and financial stability, reinforcing the need to mitigate monetary policy shocks through interest rate smoothing and adequate communication and transparency to society.

Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing

We study the welfare implication of average inflation targeting as a simple interest-rate rule, in which the monetary authority adjusts its short-term policy rate in response to the output gap as well as average inflation deviation from its target instead of reacting to the contemporaneous inflation rate as in a Taylor-type rule. We find that the welfare improvement achieved by switching to average inflation targeting from a standard Taylor rule is modest with a high degree of interest-rate smoothing, whereas it is significant without interest-rate smoothing. We show that average inflation targeting is welfare-improving in the same way as interest-rate smoothing by making the conduct of monetary policy history-dependent. Thus, the high degree of monetary policy inertia in the estimated interest-rate rules in many advanced economies implies that the welfare gain from adopting the average inflation targeting rule would be minimal.

Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time-series properties of the real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a simple benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.

Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. (authors' abstract)

Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that two countries’ monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time‐varying inflation target, a time‐varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. Compared to the existing literature, our model simultaneously provides estimates of the latent components included in a typical Taylor rule specification and the model‐based real exchange rate. Our estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered, outperforming a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. More precisely, the proposed approach improves on competing models in tracking the actual evolution of the real exchange rate in terms of simple correlations while it appreciably improves on simpler competitors in terms of matching the persistence of the real exchange rate.

Monetary Policy under Data Uncertainty: Interest-Rate Smoothing from a Cross-Country Perspective

Cross-country estimates of Taylor rules suggest that higher data uncertainty is associated with a more inertial behavior of interest rates. Data uncertainty is measured by the volatility of differences between real-time data and their revisions. Using a simple structural model with Kalman filter learning, I replicate the cross-country pattern of the inertial behavior. More inertial behavior results not because central banks gradually adjust interest rates in the face of data uncertainty, but because the central banks' inference about the true data is correlated with past interest rates. Thus, I endogenize the inertial behavior of interest rates as resulting in part from the learning process.

Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

This paper offers a first attempt to estimate the policy preferences of China’s central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favor discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve, had the Chinese central bank been able to commit. These findings shed new light on the opaque Chinese monetary policy, and are robust to subsample analysis.

Average Inflation Targeting and Interest-Rate Smoothing

We study the welfare implication of average inflation targeting as a simple interest-rate rule, in which the monetary authority adjusts its short-term policy rate in response to the output gap as well as average inflation deviation from its target instead of reacting to the contemporaneous inflation rate as in a Taylor-type rule. We find that the welfare improvement achieved by switching to average inflation targeting from a standard Taylor rule is modest with a high degree of interest-rate smoothing, whereas it is significant without interest-rate smoothing. We show that average inflation targeting is welfare-improving in the same way as interest-rate smoothing by making the conduct of monetary policy history-dependent. Thus, the high degree of monetary policy inertia in the estimated interest-rate rules in many advanced economies implies that the welfare gain from adopting the average inflation targeting rule would be modest.

Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model

We present a New Keynesian model in which a fraction n of agents are fully rational, and a fraction 1−n of agents are bounded rational. After deriving a simple reduced form, we demonstrate that the Taylor condition is sufficient for determinacy and stability, both when the proportion of fully rational agents is held fixed, and when it is allowed to vary according to reinforcement learning. However, this result relies on the absence of persistence in the monetary policy rule, and we demonstrate that the Taylor condition is not sufficient for determinacy and stability in the presence of interest rate smoothing. For monetary policy rules that imply indeterminacy, we demonstrate the existence of limit cycles via Hopf bifurcation, and explore a rational route to randomness numerically. Our results support the broader literature on behavioural New Keynesian models, in which the Taylor condition is known to be a useful guide to monetary policy, despite not always being sufficient for determinacy and/or stability.

Do the Monetary Policy Makers Follow Rules? Testing Taylor’s Rule for Nepal

The study estimates Taylor’s rule for Nepal by using the annual time series data for the period of 1988-2018. As a requirement of Taylor's rule, the output gap has been estimated by using Hodric-Perscott filter. Consumer price index has been used as measure of inflation and 91-days treasury bills rate is taken as the proxy for the short-term interest rate set by central bank of Nepal. The ordinary least square method has been used to estimate the Taylor's equation The results show that. As Augmented Dickey-Fuller test shows that all the variables used in this study are in level form. The results show that there is a positive relationship of T-bills rule with inflation output gap. Interest rate smoothing is found to be a major concern of central bank of Nepal but follows the Taylor’s rule partially.

Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission

India is at the cusp of a macroeconomic policy upgrade: the government has opted for a fiscal deficit targeting rule in partial acceptance of the recommendations of the 2017 Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee while at the same time the central bank has adopted a flexible inflation targeting framework. This paper investigates the impact of these rules on one another using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated for the Indian economy. The study first ascertains that under a high degree of interest rate smoothing, a passive monetary policy is consistent with the fiscal deficit targeting rule in that determinacy of the price level is assured. Having established the central bank’s parameter space, the study next investigates the effect on fiscal policy transmission of varying the degree of monetary policy activeness. For positive fiscal spending shocks, more active monetary policy blunts the expansionary impact while reducing inflationary spillovers. The reverse holds for fiscal stimulus measures involving tax reductions, which are disinflationary, so that more active monetary policy amplifies the expansionary impact and mitigates the disinflationary impetus. The results highlight the need for coordination between fiscal intervention and monetary policy.

Monetary-fiscal policies interactions and optimal rules in Egypt

Purpose This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules. Design/methodology/approach The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation. Findings The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process. Originality/value A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

Commitment or Discretion? An Empirical Investigation of Monetary Policy Preferences in China

Despite the fact that China has become the second largest economy in the world, its monetary policy is yet to be understood by the outside observers. In this paper we estimate the policy preferences of China's central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian DSGE model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favours discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve had the Chinese central bank been able to commit.

An Analysis of the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Brazil

This paper examines monetary and fiscal policy rules in Brazil for the period 2003-2014, based on a New Keynesian Macro Model estimated via GMM System. The main results show an aggregate demand focused on the lagged GDP output and on GDP growth expectations. As for inflation, the use of hybrid Phillips curve, as well as the influence of the exchange rate, seems to be the case for Brazil. Regarding the Taylor Rule, the Central Bank’s reaction is gradual, via interest rate smoothing, and the expected inflation and GDP are important for the determination of the rule. Therefore, monetary policy seems to be counter-cyclical. As for the Fiscal Policy Rule, the dynamics of economic activity leads to a decrease in the public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR), as % of GDP, which is an indication of a counter-cyclical fiscal policy and coordination of economic policies. However, this may only indicate that GDP grows faster than PSBR, and not that the latter is decreasing. As a result, it is not possible to assure that the Brazilian fiscal policy is actually coordinated with the country’s monetary policy. JEL codes : E52, E63, C32 Online Appendix

Term structure and interest rate stabilization policies in the Greenspan era

Previous studies attribute the failure of the expectations theory, using the 3–6-month Treasury bill spread, to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to stabilizing interest rates. We find that with the advent of Greenspan, this spread predicts future changes in the short rate in the USA. This success can be explained by interest rate smoothing and greater transparency by the Fed. By enhancing the management of market expectations and reducing uncertainty, the central bank improves interest rate predictability and gains credibility from the market, as lower term premia suggest.

Real exchange rate dynamics: Relative importance of Taylor-rule fundamentals, monetary policy shocks, and risk-premium shocks

We first show that the solution to the real exchange rate under the Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing can have two alternative representations—one based on a first‐order difference equation and the other based on a second‐order difference equation. Then, by comparing error terms from these two alternative representations and analyzing their second moments, we evaluate the relative importance of Taylor‐rule fundamentals, monetary policy shocks, and risk‐premium shocks in the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Empirical results suggest that the risk‐premium shock is the largest contributor to real exchange rate movements for all the countries examined, with the Taylor‐rule fundamentals and monetary policy shocks playing a limited role. These results are robust to various alternative sets of parameter values considered for the Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing.