Interesting Changes Research Articles

Long-Term Investors, Demand Shifts, and Yields

Abstract I exploit a Dutch reform in the regulatory discount curve that makes the liabilities of pension funds and insurance companies (P&Is) more sensitive to changes in 20-year interest rates but less so to longer maturity rates. Following the reform, P&Is reduced their longest maturity bond holdings but increased those with 20-year maturities, steepening the long end of the yield curve. Using the reform as a shock to identify price elasticities of demand at the sector level based on holdings across maturity buckets and time, I show that banks are more price elastic than other investors and absorb demand shocks. (JEL G12, G18, G22, G23, G28)

Effects of Interest Rate Change on Private Sector Investment, Evidence From Pakistan

This study examines the effects of lending rates, inflation, and exchange rate fluctuations on private sector credits (PSC) in Pakistan from 1961 to 2017. The analysis shows that lending rates have a minimal impact on PSC, with an insignificant relationship. However, inflation and exchange rates show significant negative effects, indicating that rising prices and currency depreciation reduce private sector borrowing by increasing costs and uncertainty. These findings suggest that while interest rate management remains important, policymakers should prioritize strategies for stabilizing inflation and exchange rates to support private sector investment. Consequently, fostering macroeconomic stability may mitigate the indirect effects of the crowding-out phenomenon, promoting a favorable investment environment conducive to private sector growth.

Dampening the Financial Accelerator? Direct Lenders and Monetary Policy

AbstractDirect lenders, nonbank credit intermediaries with low leverage, have become increasingly important players in corporate loan markets. In this paper, we investigate the role they play in the monetary policy transmission mechanism, using U.S. dollar syndicated loan data covering the 1997–2018 period. We show that direct lenders are more likely to join loan syndicates whenever monetary policy announcements trigger a contraction in borrowers' net worth irrespective of the directional change in interest rates. Thus, our findings suggest that direct lenders dampen the financial accelerator channel of monetary policy.

Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto-Improving Policies

We provide conditions for the feasibility of robust Pareto-improving (RPI) policies when markets are incomplete and the interest rate is below the growth rate. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity in preferences and income risk and a wedge between the return to capital and bonds. An RPI improves risk sharing and can induce a more efficient level of capital. Elasticities of aggregate savings to changes in interest rates are the crucial ingredients to the feasibility of RPIs. Government debt may complement rather than substitute for capital in an RPI. Our analysis emphasizes the welfare-improving qualities of government bonds versus explicit redistribution. (JEL D52, E43, E62, H20, H63)

Interest Rate Risk Modelling Using Semi-Heavy Tail Distributions of Normal Variance-Mean Mixtures: A Study on Central Bank of Kenya Interest Rates

Derivative prices such as options and bond prices as well as swaps depend on the distributional assumptions of the underlying economic variables, normally, interest rates. The risk associated with changes in interest rates may worsen the value of the contract that depend on it since the values of these assets (derivative contracts) are affected directly by the fluctuations in interest rates. The distribution of interest rates, therefore, needs to be well understood to reduce the risks of losses associated with it. The Binomial Option pricing model assumes that interest rates are constant throughout the life of the option. Another common assumption of the underlying economic variables is that their returns are normally distributed with constant volatility. These assumptions have been used in pricing derivatives and currencies and has led to over-pricing and in some cases under-pricing. The models of the Normal Variance-Mean Mixtures used in this research shows better performance than the normal distribution. Weekly 91-day and commercial bank interest rates are used from 1991 to 2021. This study will provide a better model for interest rates to avoid mispricing. We find that the 91-day Treasury Bills interest rates follow a Generalized Hyperbolic distribution while the Commercial Bank interest rates follows a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. G.A.R.C.H model is then used in forecasting under each of the above findings. A 99pc Value at Risk is then computed for the two models and calculates the minimum expected returns in the subsequent months. This research forms a foundation for the development of advanced pricing models that incorporates the fluctuations of interest rate in the pricing industry. We conclude that the Normal Inverse Gaussian and Generalized hyperbolic distributions provide better fits than the assumed normal distribution.

A Critical Study of Psychology of Retail Investors

This research critically examines the psychology of retail investors, focusing on the behavioural finance approach to investment decision-making. Behavioral finance challenges the traditional assumption that investors are always rational, proposing instead that psychological, social, and cultural factors influence financial behaviours. The study aims to explore how demographic factors such as gender, age, and investment experience, along with macroeconomic conditions like interest rates and inflation, shape retail investors' decision-making processes. By analysing both quantitative and qualitative data from surveys and questionnaires, the study seeks to uncover patterns in how emotions, cognitive biases, and social networks affect investment choices across different groups. The scope of this research extends to identifying significant variations in investment behaviour based on demographics and cultural influences. Moreover, the study will test hypotheses related to gender differences in the influence of peers and interest rate changes on investment decisions. Through a mixed-methods approach, this research aspires to provide valuable insights for financial institutions and individual investors, enhancing their understanding of the psychological drivers behind market behaviour and investment strategies.

Reforming the IMF Surcharge Rate Policy to Avoid Procyclical Lending

Abstract The International Monetary Fund (IMF) levies ‘surcharges’ or extra fees beyond the normal borrowing costs on member countries that either draw “sufficiently large” amounts of IMF credit to mitigate balance of payments constraints, or that maintain their credit exposure with the institution for “sufficiently long” periods of time. Such surcharges have become increasingly important: 10 countries paid surcharges in 2020. Now, 22 countries are subject to IMF surcharges, and revenues from surcharges between 2020 and 2023 have reached about $6.4 billion, just as countries are struggling to recover from their balance of payments issues amidst multiple shocks, such as COVID-19, climate change, war, and advanced economy interest rate changes. Reportedly designed to discourage the overuse of Fund resources and to ensure the financial soundness of the IMF’s own balance sheet, in recent years surcharges have come under scrutiny for two reasons. First, such surcharges are inherently pro-cyclical as they increase the burden of debt payments at exactly the time when a member country needs counter-cyclical and low-cost financing, contravening the very rationale of the IMF. Secondly, IMF surcharges have now become among the largest sources of revenue for the IMF, creating a perverse situation whereby the most economically disadvantaged member countries are a major source of income for Fund operations. This paper reviews the rationale for IMF surcharges, evaluates their impacts on member country economies and on the IMF business model, and presents and evaluates various proposals for IMF surcharge reform.

Monetary Policy and The Financial Performance of Listed Consumer Goods Firms in Nigeria

This study assesses the impact of monetary policy on the financial performance of the listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria. The study uses the purposive sampling technique and elimination method to determine the considered listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria from 2012 to 2023 and analyzed the impact of monetary policy variables of interest rates and inflation rate on the financial performance of these firms, measured by earnings per share as the indicator. Regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The results specifically show that changes in interest rate have a positive significant influence on the financial performance of listed consumer goods firms while changes in inflation rate have no significant influence on the financial performance of listed consumer goods firms. The study recommends the implementation of interest rate policies by the monetary authority that will balance stability and economic growth knowing the positive impact on the financial performance of the consumer goods firms.

The Relationship Between Interest Rates and Agricultural Commodity Price Dynamics

ABSTRACTThe U.S. Federal Reserve has undertaken several interest rate interventions in the past decade. This study explores the relationship between U.S. corn and soybean prices and Federal Reserve monetary policy interventions, in the short and long run. We use a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to capture three key features of agricultural commodity price responses to changes in interest rates. First, we observe that corn and soybean prices initially overreact to changes in interest rates, overshooting their long‐run equilibrium before gradually reverting. Second, in the short run, the relationship between soybean prices and interest rates is asymmetric; the initial price change is more pronounced for an interest rate increase than for a decrease of the same magnitude. Lastly, both corn and soybean prices display symmetry in the long run. These results help to understand how changes in interest rates affect commodity prices. Assessing the relationship between agricultural commodity prices and interest rates can assist farmers and processors in planning investments and loans based on interest rate forecasts.

Monetary Policy and Government Debt

AbstractWe study how the level of government debt affects the effectiveness of monetary policy, that is, the elasticity of economic aggregates to interest rate changes. We build a New Keynesian model where fiscal policy is non‐Ricardian and government debt is risk‐free. Wealth effects generated by government bonds weaken the transmission of monetary policy to output. Using data on private ownership of U.S. public debt, we find that when the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is one standard deviation above its mean, the response of industrial production and unemployment to a monetary shock decreases by 0.75pp and 0.1pp, respectively, out to a 3‐year horizon.

FINANCIAL INCLUSION (FI): KINERJA UMKM DI INDONESIA DARI PUBLISH OR PERISH

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the financial inclusion of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that are currently supporting economic growth in Indonesia. Design/Methodology/Approach: Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is a method in this observation by reviewing certain topics of discussion that focus on specific problems that have been identified and classified in a structured manner, assessed, concluded, and selected based on previously determined benchmarks based on evidence and facts from quality research that is relevant to the research question. Research data was obtained from Google Scholar for the period 2011-2022 based on the initial search, there were 198 articles, and only 25 articles were used as data sources and will be studied in more depth. Findings: The results of the research show that through investment diversification, risk management, and wise financial planning, individuals and companies can reduce the negative impact of economic impacts and maintain their financial stability. Research Implications: Insulation can help MSMEs protect their businesses from market shocks, interest rate changes, or other external impacts that can be detrimental. Financial inclusion after the economic crisis that occurred in 2008 hurt financial stability in Indonesia.

Measuring Effects of Interest Rate Fluctuations on Retail Loan Holder in Metropolitan City: Evidence from Nepal

Background: Interest rate fluctuations have long been a critical research topic, particularly in relation to retail loan holders. In Nepal, the status of retail loans has been progressively improving, making it essential to understand how interest rate changes affect retail loan borrowers in Kathmandu Valley. Objective: This study aims to investigate the impact of interest rate fluctuations on retail loan holders in Kathmandu Valley. It seeks to determine how these fluctuations influence banking performance and retail loan products in the context of Nepalese financial institutions. Method: A descriptive research design was employed, focusing on retail loan holders from Nepalese financial institutions in Kathmandu Valley. A sample of 383 retail loan borrowers was selected using simple random sampling. Data were collected via a structured questionnaire. The analysis involved descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, as well as pre-estimation and post-estimation techniques. Result: The findings indicate that interest rate fluctuations have a positive and significant impact on retail loan products offered by Nepalese banking institutions. Higher interest rates tend to enhance retail loan offerings, contributing to improved banking performance and increased creativity in loan practices. Conclusion: The study underscores the positive role of interest rate fluctuations in shaping retail loan products and banking performance in Nepal. It suggests that financial institutions could benefit from adjusting their interest rates to foster better loan practices and improve overall performance. For economic benefit, banks should consider lowering interest rates and providing attractive returns to depositors to balance their profitability and enhance financial stability. This research provides a foundation for further academic exploration into the effects of interest rates on retail loan behavior. Paper Types: Research Paper Keywords: Interest rate, Retail banking products, Ordered logistic model, Kathmandu valley. JEL Classification: G1, E43, G21 and G41

Foreign exchange interventions and monetary policy: evidence from emerging economies

Abstract The role of foreign exchange interventions in monetary policy conduct is an ongoing debatable issue, especially in inflation-targeting emerging economies, where monetary authority can follow other targets rather than price stability. This paper examines whether interventions in foreign exchange markets affect the setting of interest rates in countries where price stability is the main target of monetary policy. We used the ARDL model to investigate the matter of the intervention policy as well as its asymmetric impacts on monetary policy. The results provide evidence of the significant effect of foreign exchange interventions on monetary policy in inflation-targeting emerging economies, implying the existence of fear of floating. Particularly, interest rate changes can mitigate or accommodate the intervention policy, depending on countries. Furthermore, the interventions have asymmetric effects on monetary policy, showing the bias toward sales interventions. While sales interventions play a more pronounced effect in most emerging economies, excepting for Mexico where purchase intervention effect is of more importance.

Assessing the VlX's lmpact on SPY Returns in Response to the Federal Reserve's 2022 Rate Hike

This study examines the relationship between the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the returns of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before and after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in 2022. The analysis covers an eight-month period, centered on the date of interest rate changes. The reason to use this period because it is the first hike after the pandemic. A time series approach is used, constructing multi-linear regressions to evaluate the pre-hike and post-hike periods. The pre-hike model did not find any significant predictors, suggesting that market dynamics and the role of VIX were not aligned with SPY returns. However, after the interest rate hike, the VIX rate became significant indicators, reflecting the market's increased sensitivity due to the new interest rate environment. This transformation highlights the crucial role of the VIX as a gauge of market sentiment and risk perception in response to significant monetary policy actions.

An Investigation into the Impact of Interest Rate Fluctuations by Financial Lending Institutions on Small and Medium Enterprises’ (SMEs’) Loan Repayment among Selected Lusaka-Based Firms

This study purposed to investigate the impact of interest rate fluctuations by financial lending institutions on small medium enterprises’ (SMEs’) loan repayment Among selected Lusaka based SMEs. The issue of high interest rates charged by financial institutions is a significant concern for SMEs in Zambia. The study was guided by three research objectives; to examine the challenges SMEs face in repaying financial credit gotten from financial lending institutions; to find out the effect of interest rate fluctuations on loan repayment among SMEs operating in Lusaka City and to propose a policy framework amenable for stable and affordable interest rate by financial lending institutions operating in Lusaka City. The target population for this research was one hundred (100) SMEs registered and operating in Chilenje market in Lusaka city. This study employed a descriptive design and a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data collection to leverage the strengths of both methodologies. The research population was well-defined and complete for simple random and purposive sampling methods. The research paradigm was rooted in pragmatism, focusing on empirical data to explore the relationship between interest rate fluctuations and SME loan repayment behavior in Lusaka, using a sample size of 53 SMEs from Chilenje market. Data collection involved administering questionnaires with both open and closed-ended questions and interview schedules. This research study successfully established the effect of interest rate fluctuations on loan acquisitions among SMEs operating in Lusaka city. It demonstrated that SMEs are sensitive to changes in interest rates, with the majority indicating that their decision on loan acquisitions is affected by fluctuating interest rates. This underscores the importance of interest rate stability for SMEs in making informed borrowing decisions and managing financial risks. The study advocates for a framework which promotes transparency and market efficiency, implementing regulatory measures to mitigate risk and encourage competition, and facilitating access to credit information and alternative financing options. By comparing these findings with existing research, the study underscores the complex nature of SME loan repayment behaviors in response to interest rate fluctuations and emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts among policymakers, financial institutions, and SME stakeholders to address challenges and promote sustainable growth within the SME sector.

The Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Consumer Spending

This research was justified by the need to establish the impact of shifts in interest rates on consumption expenditures, which is a key factor in economic growth. Thus, the research’s objectives are to explore the influence of monetary policy actions performed by central banks in the context of their impact on consumers. It makes it possible for any given policymaker to work out measures which are favourable for both economic growth and stability. Further, these insights are useful in deciding the future business strategy since they give the companies an idea of what to expect in the market. In general, the study aims at expanding the existing knowledge concerning the macroeconomic consequences of interest rate volatility.

Interactions between sustainable bonds, renewable energy and other financial markets: A macroprudential perspective

We analyse linkages between sustainable bond markets and a number of key financial markets in Europe, namely corporate bond, sovereign bond, renewable energy, equity and volatility markets. We apply a novel empirical approach using zero-volatility spreads (z-spreads) as a measure of relative bond performance to adjust for the sensitivity of bond prices to changes in interest rates. We model these linkages using a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model and static and dynamic copulas that enable us to test for contagion with conditional value-at-risk measures. We find evidence of bi-directional contagion between the sustainability-linked bond and green bond markets along with contagion between other fixed-income markets and the sustainable bond market. Our results indicate possible diversification benefits that green bonds or sustainability-linked bonds may provide to investors active in the key markets analysed.

Risk Assessment of Banks When Interest Rate Hikes

Interest rates play a crucial role in the risk management of banks. When central banks raise interest rates to curb inflation or an overheated economy, the risk profile of banks can alter significantly. This paper explores the risks banks face and their assessment methods in a rising interest rate environment, focusing on SVB and Credit Suisse as case studies. It identifies key risks such as liquidity risk, credit risk, market risk, and systemic risk by examining the impact of increasing interest rates on banks' balance sheets, earnings, and capital positions. The research concludes that Asset-Liability Management (ALM) modeling, stress testing, and hedging strategies are effective tools for banks to manage these risks. A thorough literature review underscores the importance of these strategies in ensuring banks' stability and performance amidst rising interest rates. The paper highlights that proper risk management practices are essential for banks to navigate the challenges posed by changing interest rates and to maintain their financial health and operational stability in such an environment.

Made in Frankfurt? The Monetary Policy of the Swiss National Bank Since 1973

The paper investigates the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the post-Bretton Woods era, shedding light on the dynamics between the SNB and the Bundesbank and its successor, the European Central Bank, respectively. Our econometric analysis shows a high degree of synchronisation between the SNB’s interest rate changes and the decisions made in Frankfurt. The results also suggest a strong tendency toward direct exchange rate targeting before 1999, which coincides with a period of lower demand shock synchronization. This finding is supported by our analysis of the minutes of the Governing Board of the SNB for the period between 1982 and 1993. The discussions and decisions of the board show that Swiss monetary policy was largely guided by policy rate changes of the Bundesbank. The SNB routinely set the policy rate below the policy rate of the Bundesbank to enforce an implicit exchange rate target.

How do Bank Profits Change in Response to Changes in Interest Rates?

How do Bank Profits Change in Response to Changes in Interest Rates?