Monetary Policy Interactions Research Articles

Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

Online Appendix to Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

Online Appendix to Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

A Structural Vector Autoregression Exploration of South Africa’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Interactions

Interactions between monetary and macroprudential policy are crucial in safeguarding price and financial stability. This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial impacts of monetary and macroprudential policy interactions in South Africa, a leading African economy in developing macroprudential frameworks. The existing literature largely focuses on the effectiveness of these policies independently, leaving a gap in understanding how their interaction affects their overall efficacy. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and utilizing data from 1980 to 2023, this study uniquely incorporates the financial cycle to represent financial developments. The results reveal significant effects of both policies on key variables such as output, the financial cycle, and the price level. Specifically, policy contractions reduce output and the financial cycle but increase the price level, illustrating the ‘price puzzle’. This study further identifies an endogenous response between the two policies: monetary policy reacts by rising to reduce price levels following a macroprudential shock, while macroprudential policy rises to stimulate financial activity after a monetary shock. These findings underscore the importance of using both policies in conjunction but in opposite directions to balance their effects and achieve price and financial stability. This study suggests that an optimal combination of monetary and macroprudential policies is critical for maintaining macroeconomic equilibrium.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates

We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set of monetary and fiscal policy parameters can achieve debt and inflation stability given persistent fiscal deficits both away from and at the zero interest rate lower bound. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62, H63)

Monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil and the behavioral approach

PurposeThis study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, private and government consumption and nominal interest rates.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation from 2000Q1 to 2022Q4, capturing rational and behavioral behaviors with adjustments for Brazilian economic idiosyncrasies. Impulse response functions (IRF) assess the dynamic effects of policy shocks, providing a comparative analysis of the two frameworks.FindingsBehavioral agents show greater initial sensitivity to policy shocks, causing more pronounced fluctuations in GDP, inflation and private consumption compared to rational agents. Over time, the behavioral approach leads to a more robust recovery, while the rational approach results in a quicker return to equilibrium but less pronounced long-term recovery. The study also finds fiscal policy can partially offset the negative impacts of monetary tightening, with a more delayed effect in the behavioral model.Originality/valueThis paper provides insights into the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies under different agent expectations, emphasizing the importance of incorporating behavioral elements into macroeconomic models to better capture policy dynamics in emerging markets.

Analysis of The Interaction of Monetary Policy and Islamic Investment Towards Indonesia's Economic Growth

Economic growth is the main measure of development success, and the results of economic growth will be enjoyed by the community either by itself or with government intervention. Economic growth is an important indicator in the real sector. The interaction between monetary policy and sharia investment in influencing Indonesia's economic growth is the main focus of this study. This study aims to analyze the effect of the interaction of monetary policy (interest rates, exchange rates and money supply) and the interaction of sharia investment (sukuk, sharia stocks, sharia mutual funds) on Indonesia's economic growth for the period 2000-2022. This type of research is quantitative research using time series data from secondary data with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis method with the help of Eviews software. The results of this study indicate that the variables of short-term interest rates, SUKUK, sharia stocks, sharia mutual funds have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the rupiah exchange rate (KURS), the amount of money in circulation on economic growth show a negative and insignificant effect. The variables of long-term interest rates, rupiah exchange rates or KURS, the amount of money in circulation SUKUK, sharia stocks, mutual funds have a positive and significant effect on economic growth

Guaranteed cost solution for discrete-time uncertain/nonlinear dynamic games

Motivated by an example of fiscal and monetary policy interaction of a national economy, the problem of uncertain/nonlinear two players discrete-time noncooperative games is investigated. Since the models of the systems are uncertain, the notion of Nash equilibrium solution is not suitable, instead, new Nash guaranteeing strategies and Nash guaranteed costs are defined. The system’s uncertainties and/or nonlinearities are assumed to be of quadratically bounded type. First, conditions of the Nash guaranteeing strategies are derived for general uncertain nonlinear systems. These results are specified for systems that have linear nominal part and quadratic cost functions. Approximate solutions are obtained by tractable quadratic matrix inequalities. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, two numerical examples are given.

The unintended interaction effect of monetary and macroprudential policies: Evidence from China’s bank-level data

We investigate the unintended interaction effect of monetary and macroprudential policies on banks’ broad credit, using Chinese bank-level data from 2005 to 2019. According to our findings, tightening both macroprudential and monetary policies simultaneously in China expands broad credit, which differs from traditional empirical findings in other countries that such policy conditions typically result in credit contraction. We reveal that the non-deposit funding channel drives the unintended surge in broad credit under the interaction of macroprudential and monetary policy.

Public Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Assessing Recurrent Expenditure’s Neutrality and Monetary Policy Interaction

In this study, we explored the influence of public spending on economic growth in Nigeria by testing the neutrality/non-neutrality of recurrent expenditure, as well as checking for the effect of interaction of the two expenditure components with monetary policy (interest rate) to see how they would influence economic growth. Data which covers the period 1981 to 2021 were analyzed using the technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which was selected based on the fact that our variables were stationary at mixed order of levels and first difference. From the ARDL bounds test, the study revealed that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the model which prompts the estimation of the error correction model. From the result, the findings suggest that recurrent expenditure exerts a positive and significant effect on economic growth, thereby signifying the non-neutrality of the recurrent expenditure component on economic growth. Further, the interactive terms indicates that an interaction of recurrent expenditure and interest rate on economic growth generated a negative effect though its one-period lag yields a positive and significant effect. Also, the long-run result indicates that recurrent expenditure yielded a positive but insignificant effect, thereby indicating the validity of the recurrent expenditure in the long-run. This is further confirmed as it exerted a negative but insignificant effect on economic growth when interacted with monetary policy. The policy implication of the findings centres on the fact that recurrent expenditure can only be non-neutral in influencing the macroeconomy just in the short-run.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Dance of Two Instruments: How Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interact in Nigeria

This study examined the nature of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. It also investigates the channels through which impulses from fiscal and monetary policy interaction are transmitted to inflation, output and exchange rate. These were intended to provide information on the nature of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Quarterly secondary data covering the period between 1980Q1 and 2022Q1 were used in the study. Data on real gross domestic product, consumer price index, lending rate, real exchange rate and total government expenditure were sourced from international financial statistical (2022Q4 Edition) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2009 and 2022Q4 Issues). Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) econometric model was employed for the analysis of data. The results showed that interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria is characterised by the way shock occurred. This indicated that the interaction between both policies showed a substitutive nature when the shocks resulted from aggregate demand and supply shocks, whereas the policies complemented each other when other macroeconomic shocks occur due to policy changes occurred. The study also revealed that investment and consumption are the channels through which impulses are transmitted into inflation, output and exchange rate. The study concluded that the nature of relationship between fiscal and monetary policy is dependent on shocks.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction Post Indonesian Institutional Transformation: Vector Autoregression Approach

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction Post Indonesian Institutional Transformation: Vector Autoregression Approach

What drives bank liquidity creation? The interaction of monetary policy and strategic scope

The research investigates how the marginal influence of monetary policy on the expansion of liquidity creation changes depending on the strategic scope of banks. Through a sample of Vietnamese commercial banks between 2007 and 2019, we estimate measures of liquidity creation that consider all banking items and build up various monetary policy indicators. Empirical regressions are achieved with the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator that is fitted to tackle the endogeneity issue. The study confirms the existence of the bank liquidity creation channel, i.e., an easing monetary policy boosts the banks' liquidity creation ability, both when the central bank reduces interest rates and injects more capital into the market. For banks with a strategic scope that relies more on non-interest revenues or diversifies more into various banking segments, the relationship between monetary policy and the generation of bank liquidity is strengthened when the central bank adjusts interest rates but mitigated if it changes the money supply using quantitative-based monetary tools. This paper expands the literature stream on monetary policy's liquidity creation channel, which is essential to the economy but has been little explored, by shedding light on the moderating role of bank income. Additionally, this study employs many policy indicators based on interest- and non-interest-rate tools to avoid misleading conclusions on the policy stance.

Challenges for Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-Pandemic Era

Challenges for Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-Pandemic Era

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Risks to Price Stability in Times of High Government Debt

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Risks to Price Stability in Times of High Government Debt

Public Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Assessing Recurrent Expenditure’s Neutrality and Monetary Policy Interaction

In this study, we explored the influence of public spending on economic growth in Nigeria by testing the neutrality/non-neutrality of recurrent expenditure, as well as checking for the effect of interaction of the two expenditure components with monetary policy (interest rate) to see how they would influence economic growth. Data which covers the period 1981 to 2021 were analyzed using the technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which was selected based on the fact that our variables were stationary at mixed order of levels and first difference. From the ARDL bounds test, the study revealed that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the model which prompts the estimation of the error correction model. From the result, the findings suggest that recurrent expenditure exerts a positive and significant effect on economic growth, thereby signifying the non-neutrality of the recurrent expenditure component on economic growth. Further, the interactive terms indicates that an interaction of recurrent expenditure and interest rate on economic growth generated a negative effect though its one-period lag yields a positive and significant effect. Also, the long-run result indicates that recurrent expenditure yielded a positive but insignificant effect, thereby indicating the validity of the recurrent expenditure in the long-run. This is further confirmed as it exerted a negative but insignificant effect on economic growth when interacted with monetary policy. The policy implication of the findings centres on the fact that recurrent expenditure can only be non-neutral in influencing the macroeconomy just in the short-run.

Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interactions and Coordination in South Africa: Evidence from Business and Financial Cycle Synchronisation

The article reports on the interactions and possibility of coordination between macroprudential and monetary policies in South Africa, based on business and financial cycles synchronisation. To this end, relying on financial and economic time series indicators spanning the period 2000M01–2018M12, a two-step Markov switching dynamic factor model was adopted for the measurement of composite indices, while both the dynamic conditional correlations and asymmetric generalised dynamic conditional correlations models were adopted for synchronisation analysis, together with the Metcalfe scale of coordination. The empirical evidence obtained is such that, under conditions of financial and real economic stress in South Africa, when there is crisis management rather than crisis prevention, macroprudential policy and monetary policy decisions are complementary. Therefore, there will be limited/no need for coordination between the two policy decisions. However, under normal times when there is crisis prevention rather than management, macroprudential policy and monetary policy decisions are noncomplementary; hence, the greatest degree of coordination is warranted, even though it might not be easy. Therefore, we conclude that it is possible to the coordinate the conduct of macroprudential, and monetary policies based on the synchronicity of business and financial cycles.

Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interactions in Nigeria and South Africa: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

The interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in achieving macroeconomic goals has been a subject of debate, particularly on whether they complement or substitute each other. This issue arises when both policy authorities are independent of each other. This study aims to revisit the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria and South Africa using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and calibration technique. The model consists of 20 equations that illustrate the behaviour of endogenous variables. The parameters are obtained from relevant DSGE literature and economic intuitions about the two economies. The findings reveal that fiscal and monetary policy variables interact in both economies. Inflation responds to fiscal policy shocks such as government spending, revenue and borrowing shocks. Monetary authorities’ decisions such as interest rates and inflation also affect fiscal policy variables. However, the performance of monetary and fiscal policy variables is better in South Africa than in Nigeria. The study recommends closer coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities in both economies to resolve policy design and implementation issues. Government monitoring and assessment units should also be strengthened to track the implementation and delivery of policies decided upon at coordination meetings.

Monetary and macroprudential policy interactions in a model of the euro area

We use the two-country euro area model developed by Quint and Rabanal (2014) to study policymaking in a monetary union. We focus on: 1) a two-policymaker setting where there is strategic interaction between a single monetary authority and an EMU-level macro-prudential authority, and; 2) a three-policymaker setting where there is strategic interaction between a single monetary authority and two regional-level macroprudential authorities. In the former, price stability and financial stability are pursued at the area-wide level, while in the latter each macro-prudential authority adopts region-specific objectives. We compare cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria in simultaneous-move and leadership environments, each obtained assuming discretionary policymaking. In the two-policymaker setting, we find that the gains from either the monetary authority or the macroprudential regulator having a first-mover, or leadership, advantage are somewhat limited, and the most favorable outcome is achieved under cooperation where both policies are formulated and conducted simultaneously. In the three-policymaker setting, we find that delegating macroprudential policy to regional macroprudential regulators plays an important role in achieving regional stability.

Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020

We test sustainability of the Italian government deficit over the period 1861–2020 using the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL). This approach takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation-targeting strategy. We consider a cointegrated model with multiple structural changes to characterize the sustainability of public finances and the prevalence of monetary or fiscal dominance during subperiods. We also use recursive unit root tests for explosiveness to test fiscal sustainability and to detect episodes of potential explosive behaviour in Italian public debt. We find two structural changes for the public debt and one change in the primary budget surplus, the alternation of monetary and fiscal dominant regimes, as well as evidence of bubbles related to three episodes of the Italian fiscal performance. Our results reveal the sensitiveness of the primary balance and the debt paths to shocks hitting fiscal, macroeconomic, and financial variables.