Inter-basin Water Diversion Project Research Articles

Dynamic multiobjective two-stage fuzzy stochastic strategy for optimal water allocation in inter-basin water division under changing environment: A case study of Hanjiang-to-Weihe water division in Shaanxi Province, China

Extensive environmental changes increase the complex uncertainty surrounding water allocation systems, and irrational water allocation further exacerbates competition among users, posing formidable challenges to achieving dynamic and sustainable water resource management in inter-basin water diversion (IBWD) projects. This study established a dynamic multi-objective water allocation framework to address environmental change, uncertainty of water systems, and coordination between water allocation and deficit risk. The proposed framework focuses on water allocation as a continuous, multi-period decision-making process and considers reasonable water allocation from the individual to the overall multidimensionality. The feasibility and practicality of the framework were verified by long-term water allocation planning of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe IBWD in Shaanxi Province, China. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, three classical scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, and optimization models to realize future sustainable water allocation optimal planning. The study found that the framework enables sustainable water allocation management and provides decisions for decision-makers under different water deficit conditions. Global optimal water allocation and the maximization of system benefits were achieved using multi-objective dynamic modeling. The average satisfaction level exceeded 0.9, and the Gini coefficient was below 0.05, both of which have a synergistic effect, with the former enhancing satisfaction within each subarea, and the latter ensuring equity among the subareas. The proposed framework aims to manage water resources of IBWD sustainably and provide optimal water allocation schemes to decision-makers under changing environments, which will alleviate water scarcity and interregional competition to promote regional sustainable development.

Weakened hydrological oscillation period increased the frequency of river algal blooms

The evolution of riverine aquatic ecosystems typically exhibits notable characteristic with cumulative, enduring, and hysteresis. Exploring the non-linear response of riverine ecology to long-term hydrological fluctuations become a major challenge in contemporary interdisciplinary research. In response to the critical issue of frequent river algal blooms in the lower Han River, which is impacted by Asian largest inter-basin water diversion project. We identified the non-linear response of eco-hydrology across various time scales through the integration of Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and Inverse Wavelet Transform (IWT). Our study revealed that: 1) Over the past half century, the hydrological regime in the lower Han river showed a significant downward trend, and existed three significant hydrological oscillation periods (HOPs), including the short-scale Intra-AC (180 days), the medium-scale AC (365 days, the first major period), and the long-scale Inter-AC (2500 days), the variation of Inter-AC changed most dramatically. 2) We further found that the Inter-AC variation of hydrology is more closely related to the formation of river algal blooms in the Han River, and when the hydrological Inter-AC shows steady state or downward trend, the frequency of algal blooms in the lower Han River increases significantly. 3) The river algal blooms in the lower Han River is a cumulative consequence to the long-term hydrological influences. Weakened hydrological Inter-AC is more likely to increase the frequency of river algal blooms, and 10-years Inter-AC cumulation increased the frequency by 60%. Therefore, the weaken of long-scale HOP will significantly increase the frequency of river algal blooms in the future. This study received a critical scientific insight and aimed at provide guidance for the optimization of ecological management within the framework of national large-scale water conservation.

Does the South-to-North Water Diversion Project promote the growth of enterprises above designated size in the water-receiving areas?-Evidence from 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China.

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is believed to drive the next phase of sustainable productivity growth, meeting growing water demand, so as to address increasing environmental sustainability challenges. The Middle Route of SNWDP is regarded as an extremely large long-distance inter-basin water diversion project, which has benefited Henan, Hebei, Tianjin and Beijing since 2014 with great sustainable changes to the cities, groundwater, ecological environment, industrial structure and social development of the beneficiary areas. Taking the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (IEDS) in the water-receiving areas as the research object, this paper takes the year of policy implementation 2014 as the basic time point, evaluating the change of the number of IEDS in the beneficiary areas of the Middle Route of SNWDP through difference-in-difference model. The results show that: (1) The Middle Route of SNWDP promotes the additional growth of the number of IEDS in the beneficiary areas. (2) When the Middle Route of SNWDP promotes the growth of the number of IEDS in beneficiary areas, there is no regional difference for regions with different development levels. (3) The reasons why the Middle Route of SNWDP contributes to the additional growth of the number of IEDS are composed of promoting mixed ownership reform of enterprises in beneficiary areas, increasing water supply and increasing population. However, the Middle Route of SNWDP has not had a significant impact on the traditional total factor productivity or the components of production factors, technology and capital. From the final outcome, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project has played a facilitating role in the sustainable development of large-scale enterprises in the water-receiving areas.

Research on Detection and Restoration Methods of Basic Operation Data for Inter-Basin Water Diversion Projects

Inter-basin water diversion is an essential means to alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources, and accurate hydraulic modelling guarantees smooth operation. However, due to the increasing complexity of water diversion methods, structures, water conservancy facilities and equipment, it is difficult to obtain accurate and effective measured data to establish a model. Therefore, based on a data-driven method, this paper diagnoses and restores the important parameters of the water diversion projects, including the elevation of pipeline and water level data, which can be used to establish the adaptive hydraulic transition model of the water diversion projects. Firstly, the abnormal data of the elevation of pipeline were identified using expert data annotation and support vector classification (SVC), with the identification accuracy of abnormal data being as high as 91%. Then, the single and continuous abnormal data were restored using an interpolation method and multiple linear regression algorithm (MLR), and the restored data were found to be consistent with the judgment of expert knowledge. Secondly, K-medoids was used to classify the complex multi-dimensional water level data, combined with the 3-sigma method to identify the outliers in each class. The gradient boosting decision tree algorithm (GBDT) trained on normal data restored outliers in a predictive manner, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 0.003%, 0.025% and 0.091% in each class, respectively, showing the best accuracy compared with other models.

Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework

Inter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms, including the freshwater golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), exacerbating global biofouling concerns. While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has been studied, quantitative correlations and underlying mechanisms remain unclear, particularly in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects with diverse hydrodynamic and environmental conditions. Here, we examine the comprehensive impact of environmental variables on the establishment risk of the golden mussel in China's 1432-km-long Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Logistic regression and multiclass classification models were used to investigate the environmental influence on the occurrence probability and reproductive density of the golden mussel. Total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, water temperature, pH, and velocity were identified as crucial environmental variables affecting the biofouling risk in the project. Logistic regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between the occurrence probability of all larval stages and levels of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. The multiclass classification model showed that elevated levels of total nitrogen hindered mussel reproduction, while optimal water temperature enhanced their reproductive capacity. Appropriate velocity and pH levels were crucial in maintaining moderate larval density. This research presents a quantitative analytical framework for assessing establishment risks associated with invasive mussels, and the framework is expected to enhance invasion management and mitigate biofouling issues in water diversion projects worldwide.

Algal proliferation risk assessment using Vine Copula-based coupling methods in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC), i.e., the longest inter-basin water diversion project (1,432 km) in the world, has delivered more than 60 billion m3 of water resources to North China and benefiting more than 100 million people since December 2014. However, the abnormal algal proliferation in the main canal under low nutrient background has seriously threatened the water quality safety of this mega project. In this research, 3 years of monitoring data matrix, including water temperature (WT), flow discharge (Q), flow velocity (V), dissolved oxygen (DO), and the algal cell density (ACD), from the main canal of the MRSNWDPC were analyzed. The nonlinear relationships were determined based on multiple regression models, and a composite risk analysis model was constructed by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method coupled with Vine Copula function. The impacts of different hydrological and environmental factors on algal proliferation were comprehensively analyzed by Bayesian theory. The results showed that the WT gradually decreased from upstream to downstream, with a narrow range of 16.6–17.4°C, and the annual average concentrations of DO showed a gradual increase from upstream to downstream. The flow velocity of MRSNWDPC had a tendency to increase year by year, and the maximum flow velocity exceeds 0.8 m/s upstream, midstream and downstream by 2018. The ACD accumulated along the main canal, and the annual average ACDs of downstream were the highest, ranging from 366.17 to 462.95 × 104 cells/L. The joint early-warning method considering both water temperature and flow velocity conditions is an effective way for algal proliferation risk warning management. When water temperatures of the upstream, midstream, and downstream were below 26, 26, and 23°C, respectively, the algal proliferation risk can be controlled under 50% by the flow velocity at 0.3 m/s; otherwise, the flow velocity needs to be regulated higher than 0.8 m/s. In order to keep the midstream and downstream avoid abnormal algal proliferation events (ACD ≥ 500 × 104 cells/L), the corresponding ACDs of the upstream and midstream need to be controlled lower than 319 × 104 cells/L and 470 × 104 cells/L, respectively. This study provides a scientific reference for the long-distance water diversion project’s algal control and environmental protection. The proposed coupling Vine Copula models can also be widely applied to multivariate risk analysis fields.

The Impact of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Schemes on Hydropower Generation in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River during Extreme Drought Years

The Yangtze River Basin experiences frequent extreme heatwaves and prolonged droughts, resulting in a tight supply demand balance of electricity and negatively impacting socioeconomic production. Meanwhile, ongoing inter-basin water diversion projects are planned that will divert approximately 25.263 billion cubic meters of water from the Yangtze River Basin annually, which may further affect the power supply in the region. In this study, the CLHMS-LSTM model, a land-surface hydrological model coupled with a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based reservoir operation simulation model, is used to investigate the impact of water diversions on the power generation of the Yangtze River mainstream reservoirs under extreme drought conditions. Two different water diversion schemes are adopted in this study, namely the minimum water deficit scheme (Scheme 1) and minimum construction cost scheme (Scheme 2). The results show that the land surface–hydrological model was able to well characterize the hydrological characteristics of the Yangtze River mainstem, with a daily scale determination coefficient greater than 0.85. The LSTM reservoir operation simulation model was able to simulate the reservoir releases well, with the determination coefficient greater than 0.93. The operation of the water diversion projects will result in a reduction in the power generation of the Yangtze River mainstem by 14.97 billion kilowatt-hours. As compared to the minimum construction cost scheme (Scheme 2), the minimum water deficit scheme (Scheme 1) reduces the loss of power generation by 1.38 billion kilowatt-hours. The research results provide new ideas for the decision-making process for the inter-basin water diversion project and the formulation of water diversion plans, which has implications for ensuring the security of the power supply in the water diversion area.

Quantifying seasonal ground deformation in Taiyuan basin, China, by Sentinel-1 InSAR time series analysis

The presence of seasonal surface deformation in areas that are subsiding/uplifting due to groundwater pumping/recovery can indicate aquifer recharge. Understanding seasonal surface deformation and the existing relationship between triggering factors and the deformation supports effective groundwater management and subsidence mitigation. Here, we investigated seasonal ground displacement in response to the aquifer compaction and expansion due to groundwater extraction and recharge within the Taiyuan basin, Northern China. We obtained Sentinel-1 InSAR displacement time series data from 2017 to 2020 and quantitatively analyzed relationships between triggering factors (e.g., groundwater level and precipitation) and the associated displacements using wavelet-based methods. The results show that the seasonal deformation is concentrated in the irrigated areas within the central basin, with a 1-year periodicity. The annual peak-to-peak amplitude was up to 2 cm, peaking in March with troughs in August. This seasonality present in the displacement time series is found to be ‘in-phase’ with respect to groundwater levels and ‘anti-phase’ in relation to natural precipitation. These results are consistent with the irrigation pumping practices in the basin, with increased groundwater withdrawals to meet irrigation water demand prior to the monsoon precipitation season, resulting in water level decline and land subsidence from mid-March to mid-August. During the non-irrigated season, groundwater extraction decreases, and the aquifer systems are replenished by precipitation, causing water levels to recover and the ground to uplift from late August to mid-March. A geological analysis indicates that the seasonal deformation is controlled by the thickness of Quaternary strata and fault systems, which play a critical role in forming the earth fissures in the basin. The elastic and inelastic deformation was separated; the estimated elastic/inelastic ratio was about 0.6–0.7, indicating that the inelastic component dominates the main aquifer compaction in the central basin. Our analysis is of hydrologic importance which could be used to guide groundwater management and subsidence mitigation, given the inter-basin water diversion projects in this arid basin.

An integrated risk assessment framework using information theory-based coupling methods for basin-scale water quality management: A case study in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin, China

As the second largest reservoir in China, the Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJKR) serves as the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC), i.e., the currently longest (1273 km) inter-basin water diversion project in the world, for more than eight years. The water quality status of the DJKR basin has been receiving worldwide attention because it is related to the health and safety of >100 million people and the integrity of an ecosystem covering >92,500 km2. In this study, basin-scale water quality sampling campaigns were conducted monthly at 47 monitoring sites in river systems of the DJKRB from the year 2020 to 2022, covering nine water quality indicators, i.e., water temperature (WT), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index (CODMn), five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), ammonia nitrogen (NH3−N), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and fluoride (F−). The water quality index (WQI) and multivariate statistical techniques were introduced to comprehensively evaluate water quality status and understand the corresponding driving factors of water quality variations. An integrated risk assessment framework simultaneously considered intra and inter-regional factors using information theory-based and the SPA (Set-Pair Analysis) methods were proposed for basin-scale water quality management. The results showed that the water quality of the DJKR and its tributaries stably maintained a “good” status, with all the average WQIs >60 of river systems during the monitoring period. The spatial variations of all WQIs in the basin showed significantly different (Kruskal-Wallis tests, P < 0.01), while no seasonal differences were found. The increase in built-up land use and agricultural water consumption revealed the highest contributions (Mantel's r > 0.5, P < 0.05) to the rise of nutrient loadings of all river systems, showing the intensive anthropogenic activities can eclipse the power of natural processes on water quality variations to some extent. The risks of specific sub-basins that may cause water quality degradation on the MRSNWDPC were effectively quantified and identified into five classifications based on transfer entropy and the SPA methods. This study provides an informative risk assessment framework that was relatively easy to be applied by professionals and non-experts for basin-scale water quality management, thus providing a valuable and reliable reference for the administrative department to conduct effective pollution control in the future.

Impact of inter-basin water diversion project operation on water quality variations of Hanjiang River, China

The impact of the operation of inter-basin water diversion projects on the integrity and stability of regional ecosystems cannot be ignored. In this study, water quality samplings were conducted monthly at 16 national monitoring sites in the mid-downstream of the Hanjiang River (HJR, the downstream of the water source of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China) over 3 years, covering seven physiochemical water quality indicators and six heavy metal elements. The water quality index (WQI) and multivariate statistical techniques were introduced to comprehensively evaluate water quality status and understand the corresponding driving factors of water quality variations. The heavy metal risks were evaluated using the Nemerow Pollution Index (Pn), the Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI), and the human health risk assessment model. The results showed that after the operation of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC), water quality in the mid-downstream of the HJR was generally at a “good” status, with the average WQI of 86.37, showing no water quality deterioration trends. The operation of the MRSNWDPC did significantly decrease the monthly flow in the HJR by about 4.05–74.27%, and the flow variation processes also became more stable than before. Most water quality indicators and WQIs have no correlations with the flow and water level changes. The human health risks of all heavy metal elements caused by dermal exposure and ingestion pathways increased over time. The average individual health risk caused by carcinogenic heavy metal Cr was the highest. Chromium is the major carcinogenic factor and should be a critical indicator to pay special attention to for water risk management in the HJR. This study provides a scientific reference for the water quality safety management of HJR under the influence of a water diversion project.

Water quality variation in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China

The South-to-North Water Division Middle Route Project (MRP) is currently the longest inter-basin water diversion project in the world. It benefits a large population and its water quality has attracted much attention. In this study, seasonal investigations on 11 sampling sites along the MRP were conducted from 2018 to 2019; water temperature, pH, turbidity, transparency, CODMn, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, phosphate, total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, and chlorophyll a were determined synchronously. Single leakage distance clustering analysis identified the spatio-seasonal heterogeneity of physiochemical parameters. The trophic level index (TLI) and the water quality status were assessed: TLI increased and WQI decreased from south to north; TLI and WQI had seasonal differences (p &amp;lt; 0.001), the best water quality was observed in autumn, and the lowest TLI was observed in winter. The trophic level was “oligotrophic to mesotrophic”; water quality status was “good.” The multiple linear stepwise regression analysis confirmed that total nitrogen (TN), Chl a, and CODMn were the driving factors in water quality. These factors were applied to build the simplified WQI model, which was confirmed as a reliable method of water quality assessment for the MRP and a fitting substitute for TLI and WQI. The results provided support for the water quality evaluation of the MRP.

Prediction modelling framework comparative analysis of dissolved oxygen concentration variations using support vector regression coupled with multiple feature engineering and optimization methods: A case study in China

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is an essential indicator for assessing water quality and managing aquatic environments, but it is still a challenging topic to accurately understand and predict the spatiotemporal variation of DO concentrations under the complex effects of different environmental factors. In this study, a practical prediction framework was proposed for DO concentrations based on the support vector regression (SVR) model coupling multiple intelligence techniques (i.e., four data denoising techniques, three feature selection rules, and four hyperparameter optimization methods). The holistic framework was tested using a data matrix (17,532 observation data in total) of 12 indicators from three vital water quality monitoring stations of the longest inter-basin water diversion project in the world (i.e., the Middle-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China), during the year 2017 to 2020 period. The results showed that the framework we advocated for could successfully and accurately predict DO concentration variations in different geographical locations. The model used the “wavelet analysis–LASSO regression–random search–SVR” combination of the Waihuanhe station has the best prediction performance, with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.251, 0.063, 0.190, and 0.911, respectively. The combined methods using feature selection and hyperparameter optimization techniques can significantly promote the robustness and accuracy of the prediction model and can provide a new universal and practical way of investigating and understanding the environmental drivers of DO concentration variations. For the water quality management department, this proposed comprehensive framework can also identify and reveal the key parameters that should be concerned and monitored under different environmental factors change. More studies in terms of assessing potential integrated water quality risk using multi-indicators in mega water diversion projects and/or similar water bodies are required in the future.

Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project

Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project

Hydrological Response and Ecological Flow Optimization in Water Diversion Area of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project

This article investigates the hydrological response and ecological flow in the diversion area from the Hanjiang River to the Weihe River. Quantifies the impact of the inter-basin diversion project on the hydro-ecological environment of the downstream river. MIKE BASIN is initially utilized in this research to create the multi-year reservoir operating model of Sanhekou Reservoir. Then Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Range of Variability Approach (RVA) are used to evaluate the change degree of hydrological indicators. Secondly, set seven different ecological flow process schemes considering ecological demand and inter-annual wetness and dryness variability. Finally, evaluate the optimization scheme by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the hydrological response results, suggestions are put forward from the perspective of engineering and non-engineering. The results show that the simulation results of the MIKE BASIN have a high degree of fitting with the design results, which verifies the rationality of the model. Under the design scheme, the overall hydrological change of the river is 72.91% and the hydrological response of the river is high changed. Scheme 6 can reduce the overall hydrological change to (56.63%) moderate change under the premise of less impact on economic benefits, and scheme 6 is the optimal scheme. The research results not only guarantee the ecological function of the river but also provide guidance and reference significance for the actual operation of the reservoir.

Water Quality and Microbial Community in the Context of Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Yongding River, Beijing, China.

Ecological water replenishment via interbasin water diversion projects provides opportunities for ecological river restoration. Untangling water quality changes, microbiota dynamics, and community functions is necessary for sustainable ecological management. Using the Yongding River as a case study, we monitored the water quality and applied genomic sequencing to investigate microbial communities of the river in different stages after ecological water replenishment. Our results showed that river water quality represented by chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) did not change significantly during months after water replenishment. The bacterial community composition varied in different months and river subsections. The Cyanobium_PCC-6307, CL500-29 marine group, and Pseudomonas were dominant in the later stages after water replenishment. Water temperature, pH, and nutrient levels significantly affected the microbial community composition, and ecological restoration may have the potential to influence nitrogen cycling in the river. Our results can provide ecological insights into sustainable water quality maintenance and river management following ecological restoration enabled by ecological water replenishment.

Proper Pricing Approach to the Water Supply Cost Sharing: A Case Study of the Eastern Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project in China

Conflict in cost sharing is normal in complex water distribution system projects, such as the inter-basin water diversion project (IWDP). China’s South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is the largest IWDP in the world, with a complex relationship between upstream and downstream users of the water supply. Therefore, it is necessary to propose an applicable and unsophisticated cost-sharing method to deal with the complex relationship between upstream and downstream users. This paper proposes an improved cost-sharing method based on the continuity equation of water quantity and the balance equation of the project cost between upstream and downstream users. The fairness of sharing the joint cost between parties involved in the eastern route of SNWDP (ER-SNWDP) obtained using the proposed improved cost-sharing method is investigated by comparing its results with the existing cost-sharing method. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can overcome the non-convergence issue of the existing sharing formula and reduce the differences between upstream and downstream users’ sharing costs. The improved method provides a cost-sharing strategy that is more easily accepted by both the upstream and downstream users than the existing estimation approach. Therefore, the proposed pricing approach can provide technical guidance for decision makers in the effective operation of large-scale IWDPs in areas with quasi water markets.

Phytoplankton community variation and ecological health assessment for impounded lakes along the eastern route of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Interbasin water diversion projects have been proven to effectively alleviate water resource shortages in areas along water diversion lines, but few studies have focused on ecological health in impounded lakes compared with research on water quality and pollutants. Herein, monitoring data were collected during the nonwater diversion period (NWDP) and the water diversion period (WDP) from 2018 to 2019, and the index of biological integrity (IBI) method based on phytoplankton communities was used to evaluate the ecological health of the impounded lakes (Nansi Lake and Dongping Lake) along the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The results demonstrated that water diversion improved the water quality of the impounded lakes during the WDP, especially total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. Meanwhile, the water diversion affected the phytoplankton community structure and diversity, and network analysis further revealed water diversion could be beneficial to the ecological health of impounded lakes. Furthermore, the P-IBI showed that the overall ecological health assessment was "good" during the WDP. Water diversion substantially improved the ecological health status and stability of the impounded lakes during the dry season. Finally, the direct correlations between the water quality parameters and the P-IBI were weak, and water quality parameters could indirectly affect the P-IBI by changing the phytoplankton community structure. These findings will enhance our understanding of the ecological health of the impounded lakes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Furthermore, this study will provide a reference to support the ecosystem security of impounded lakes in other large water diversion projects.

A framework for exploring environmental risk of the longest inter-basin water diversion project under the influence of multiple factors: A case study in China

Multi-factor risk assessment is an important prerequisite for water quality protection and the safe operation of mega hydro-projects. As the largest long-distance inter-basin water diversion project in the world, the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC) has been in operation for 8 years and has benefited 79 million people along the canal. However, concerns have been raised in recent years about the potential negative effects of abnormal algal proliferation in the MRSNWDPC. It is very important for the safety of water supply to carry out relevant risk analysis and formulate regulatory management. In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of algal proliferation in the MRSNWDPC under the influence of multiple factors, a multivariate risk assessment method based on Vine Copula theory and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. Five key factors (water temperature, flow velocity, flow rate, algal cell density, and dissolved oxygen) were used and multiple dependency models in each section of the MRSNWDPC from January 2016 to January 2019 were established to study the risk of algal proliferation under multiple scenarios. The results demonstrate that water temperature can be used as an appropriate early-warning indicator of algal proliferation. The early-warning interval (unit: °C) of water temperature in the upper, middle, and lower reaches are 26–29°C, 23–26°C, and 21–23°C, respectively. Unlike bivariate analysis, the multiple dependency model describes the relationship between variables more accurately and enriches the scenarios of multiple conditional probabilities. When the water temperature fluctuates in the early-warning interval, regulating the upstream, midstream, and downstream flow velocity to be higher than 0.6 m/s, 0.5 m/s, and 0.6 m/s, respectively, can effectively reduce the risk of algal proliferation. This research not only provides a reference for the ecological control of algae in the MRSNWDPC and similar mega hydro-projects but also enriches the application of the Vine Copula theory coupled with the random sampling method for multi-variable risk analysis.

Optimizing water allocation in an inter-basin water diversion project with equity-efficiency tradeoff: A bi-level multiobjective programming model under uncertainty

Achieving optimal water allocation in an inter-basin water diversion project is a challenge that involves multilevel stakeholders, and the uncertainty and disequilibrium of water allocation further intensify competition among different stakeholders. This study proposes a bi-level multiobjective programming model for water allocation in inter-basin water diversions that considers equilibrium sustainability. The model integrates interval parameter programming, fuzzy credibility-constrained programming, bi-level multiobjective programming, and the Gini coefficient into a general framework. The model not only balances the stakeholders at different levels to ensure water allocation equity but also comprehensively considers the fuzzy uncertainty of parameters and constraints to obtain the interrelationship among water diversion, water allocation satisfaction, and efficiency objectives. The developed model was applied to allocate water for the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project in Shaanxi Province, China. The results showed that 1) the model derived a feasible tradeoff between upper basin manager and lower regional managers under different water diversion scenarios; 2) water allocations and objectives at each level are sensitive to changes in the credibility of water diversion; 3) the new model improves the equity of water allocation and ensures the efficient allocation to various stakeholders at each level based on a comparison of the proposed model with a model that does not consider equilibrium. The proposed model can help decision makers choose the optimal scheme based on their acceptable risk level to achieve a more efficient and sustainable water allocation for inter-basin water diversions.

Limited water scarcity mitigation by expanded interbasin physical and virtual water diversions with uneven economic value added in China

Interbasin water diversion projects and virtual water transfers embedded in exchanged goods and services are two effective solutions to water deficits. However, the associated real responses in water quantity and quality scarcities and the economic efficiencies remain unclear. Here, we tracked the blue water scarcities, water pollution levels, and economic value added through interbasin physical and virtual water diversions across nine river basins by sector in China from 2007 to 2015. The total national blue and grey water footprints were 365 Gm3yr−1 and 592 Gm3 yr−1, in which the Yangtze River basin accounts the most for 32 % and 37 %, respectively, by 2015. The physical water diversions increased by 52 % to 16.9 Gm3yr−1. The blue virtual water transfers increased by 24 % to 176 Gm3yr−1, whereas the grey virtual water transfers decreased by 10 % to 266 Gm3yr−1. Agriculture related interbasin virtual water flows showed opposite directions to those driven by the industry sector. Although with uneven value added while growing, limited effects mitigated water quantity and quality stresses, especially in the drier Yellow, Northwest, and Hai River basins where the capital is located. Half of the basins had low and declining synergy scores, suggesting an urgent need to achieve synergies between resources, the environment, and the economy across basins.