Intense Precipitation Events Research Articles

Development of Vertical Radar Reflectivity Profiles Based on Lightning Density Using the Geostationary Lightning Mapper Dataset in the Subtropical Region of Brazil

The study aims to develop vertical radar reflectivity profiles based on lightning density data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite in the subtropical region of Brazil. The primary objective is to improve the assimilation of lightning data in numerical weather prediction models. The methodology involves the analysis of polarimetric radar data from Chapecó-SC and Jaraguari-MS, spanning from January 2019 to December 2023, and their correlation with lightning data from the GLM. Radar reflectivity profiles were created for different lightning density classes, categorized into six classes based on geometric progression. Results show a significant relationship between lightning activity and radar reflectivity, with distinct profiles for convective and stratiform events. These findings demonstrate the potential of using GLM data to enhance short-term weather forecasting, particularly for severe weather events. The study concludes that the integration of GLM data into weather models can lead to more accurate predictions of intense precipitation events, contributing to better preparedness and response strategies.

Hydro-geomorphological assessment of culvert vulnerability to flood-induced soil erosion using an ensemble modeling approach

Intense precipitation events pose growing threats to forest infrastructure causing flooding, and soil erosion and deposition, creating bottlenecks at road-stream crossing structures (RSCS). We describe a hillslope-scale ensemble hydro-geomorphological vulnerability assessment integrating geospatial Streambank Erosion Vulnerability Assessment (SBEVA), Modified Revised Soil Loss Equation (MRUSLE), and process-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model into an ensemble hydro-geomorphologic vulnerability index (EHVI) for USDA Forest Service (USFS) managed 194 road-culverts at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBR-EF) in New Hampshire, USA. The results revealed that five and one culvert with diameters of 0.46m and 0.61m, respectively, have extreme EHVI values between 4 and 5, and fifteen and three culverts with diameters of 0.46m and 0.61m, respectively, have severe EHVI values between 3 and 4, some of which were previously identified as hydrologically vulnerable (undersized) to floods. This knowledge will inform USFS efforts to improve the resilience of the RSCS and protect aquatic habitats.

Quercus acutissima exhibits more adaptable water uptake patterns in response to seasonal changes compared to Pinus massoniana

BackgroundSeasonal precipitation variability significantly affects water use in forests; however, whether water uptake is adapted to changes in precipitation, particularly whether it could affect the coexistence of tree species, has rarely been quantified in forest systems. MethodIn this study, dual stable isotopes and the Li-6400 portable photosynthesis system were used to determine the water sources of a mixed conifer (Pinus massoniana) and broadleaf (Quercus acutissima) forest and changes in hydraulic characteristics during the dry and wet seasons in a southern hilly region of China. ResultsAlthough the hydraulic characteristics of P. massoniana were lower than those of Q. acutissima, it maintained a stable water source from the deep soil layer and a higher stomatal conductance (Gs), leading to a higher transpiration rate (Tr) during the growing seasons. Q. acutissima mainly absorbed water from deeper soil layers in the dry season and took up from shallow soil layers in the wet season. Its Gs values exhibited sensitivity to precipitation, while it maintained a lower Tr value during the growing seasons. The excessive water-use strategy observed in P. massoniana may confer weak drought-tolerance during higher frequency and more intense extreme precipitation events, whereas Q. acutissima may exhibit better ecological adaption to precipitation changes. ConclusionsThe overlap of water niches in mixed forests did not appear to affect the coexistence of tree species. The present study provides insights into reforestation and water management in the southern hilly regions of China.

Faecal contamination determines bacterial assemblages over natural environmental parameters within intermittently opened and closed lagoons (ICOLLs) during high rainfall

Intermittently closed and opened lakes and lagoons (ICOLLs) provide important ecosystem services, including food provision and nutrient cycling. These ecosystems generally experience low watershed outflow, resulting in substantial fluctuations in physicochemical parameters that are often compounded by anthropogenic contamination, however the patterns in microbiology within these environments remains uncharacterised. Therefore, we aimed to determine how seasonal heterogeneity in the physicochemical parameters, in comparison to faecal contamination, alter the dynamics of bacterial communities inhabiting ICOLLs on the eastern Australian coast. To address these aims, we sampled four ICOLLs on a monthly basis for one year, using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to monitor patterns in bacterial diversity and qPCR-based methods to measure faecal contamination from humans (sewage), dogs, and birds. Additionally, we used qPCR to monitor patterns of a suite of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) including sulI, tetA, qnrS, dfrA1, and vanB. Differences in bacterial community composition were often associated with temporal shifts in salinity, temperature, pH, DO, and fDOM, but following periods of high rainfall, bacterial assemblages in two of four ICOLLs changed in direct response to sewage inputs. Within these ICOLLs, indicator taxa for stormwater identified using the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing data, as well as markers for sewage and dog faeces, and levels of the antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) sulI, tetA, and dfrA1 were significantly more abundant after rainfall. Notably many of the stormwater indicator taxa were potential human pathogens including Arcobacter and Aeromonas hydrophilia, which also displayed significant correlations, albeit weak to moderate, with levels of the ARGs sulI, tetA, and dfrA1. This broad-scale shift in the nature of the bacterial community following rainfall will likely lead to a substantial, and perhaps detrimental, divergence in the ecosystem services provided by the bacterial assemblages within these ICOLLs. We conclude that following rainfall events, sewage was a principal driver of shifts in the microbiology of ICOLLs exposed to stormwater, while natural seasonal shifts in the physicochemical parameters controlled bacterial communities at other times. Increased occurrence of intense precipitation events is predicted as a ramification of climate change, which will lead to increased impacts of stormwater and sewage contamination on important ICOLL ecosystems in the future.

High resolution paleo-hydrological record from carbonate deposits in the Roman aqueduct of Traconnade (Aix-en-Provence, SE France)

Carbonate deposits in aqueducts are potential valuable archives of the paleo-hydrological record for the Roman period. Here we present a new high-resolution record from carbonate deposits in the aqueduct of Traconnade built for Aix-en-Provence, the Roman city of Aquae Sextiae. As its name indicates, Aquae Sextiae was built around an abundant source of water but its development, like other ancient cities, required good management of this resource. Through a combination of micromilling and in situ analysis (LA–MC–ICPMS) on thin sections, we measured geochemical variations (stable isotopes and trace elements) and performed sampling for absolute UTh dating. Geochronological results based on classical correction and isochron along with archaeological observations confirm that the carbonate concretion was deposited in Roman times on the walls of the Traconnade aqueduct, built no later than 140 CE. Carbonate δ18O records document the presence of clear geochemical cycles that were mainly controlled by seasonal variations in temperature and δ18O from water circulating in the aqueduct. Minima and maxima in δ18O values were attributed to summer and winter conditions, respectively in agreement with the modern spring’s stable isotope values. The other tracers (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and δ13C) also show marked cyclicities with maximum values occurring in summer. The enrichment in trace elements and δ13C were linked to processes occurring during dry periods (1) prior precipitation of calcite in the epikarst, and/or (2) a greater degree of CO2 degassing. The geochemical variations in Ba/Ca, U/Ca and Rb/Ca behave differently and their co-variations may reflect the water-rock interactions in the karst system. We highlight that these tracers can be used as a proxy for intense precipitation events, occurring frequently during autumn. The Traconnade aqueduct carbonate provides sufficient temporal resolution to explore environmental variations on a seasonal scale. These results suggest the occurrence of a double rainy season (spring and autumn) in the Aix-en-Provence region, similar to present-day climatic conditions. Our study confirms the high potential of aqueduct concretions for paleohydrological studies.

Season-dependent climate sensitivity of the surface runoff of major rivers in Changbai Mountain

Due to the sensitivity of runoff to changes in seasonal snowpack, the changes in surface runoff within high-latitude and high-elevation areas are more complex than in other areas. However, this sensitivity is often overlooked when correlating changes in runoff with meteorological variables. Here, we analyze changes in surface runoff during snowmelt and snowless periods and their sensitivity to climate change from 1960 to 2019 in the upstream watersheds of the Songhua, Yalu, and Tumen Rivers in Changbai Mountain. Most runoff indices, except for low flow in the Yalu River, exhibited decreasing trends during snowmelt and snowless periods. Precipitation was the primary variable responsible for surface runoff during snowless and snowmelt periods. Notably, rainfall replenished all runoff indices during snowless periods, particularly under high flow conditions. The average and high flows were also primarily supplemented by rainfall during snowmelt periods. However, low flow was positively correlated with snowmelt in the Songhua and Tumen Rivers and with temperature in the Songhua, Yalu and Tumen Rivers during snowmelt periods. Additionally, extreme runoff events were closely associated with extreme precipitation. These findings demonstrate the seasonal and index-dependent climate sensitivity of surface runoff within Changbai Mountain, offering insights into the surface runoff response mechanism to climate change in high-altitude mountainous areas. Under future climate change conditions, frequent and intense extreme precipitation events may increase the risk of flooding, owing to the high sensitivity of high flows to precipitation, posing a serious threat to regional ecological security.

Drainage water management, woodchip bioreactor, and saturated riparian buffer as stacked conservation practices for improving crop yields and water quality

Stacking edge-of-field practices may improve nutrient removal from crops. To examine the effects of stacking edge-of-field conservation practices, a woodchip bioreactor (WBR) and saturated riparian buffer (SRB) were installed in series by intercepting tile flow from a field having a drainage water management system. Nutrient monitoring from 5 years evaluated nutrient export annually and based on the precipitation intensity. Drainage water was monitored for total suspended solids (TSS), nitrate-N, total-P, total-N, and ortho-P at the inlet and outlet of WBR and control structure of SRB. Nutrient export reductions of WBR and SRB were determined for precipitation events that were categorized as low <12.7 mm, mid 12.7–25.4 mm, high 25.4–50.8 mm, and very high >50.8 mm. Over the five seasons, nitrate-N export was reduced 88 % at the WBR outlet and 78 % at SRB outlet when used in a stacked series configuration. The efficacy of edge-of-field practices was affected by the intensity of precipitation events. The low and mid-intensity precipitation events generated 67 % of the total discharge from the subsurface drainage system which accounted for 74 % of the influent nitrate-N. During low and mid-intensity precipitation events, discharge was reduced by 58–65 %, nitrate-N was reduced by 49–88 % and total-P was reduced by 65–73 % by using stacked practice of WBR and SRB. During high and very high-intensity precipitation events only nitrate-N export was reduced by 61–66 %. This indicates that when designing stacked edge-of-the-field practices the cumulative effect of the practices and their performance during different precipitation events should be taken into account when managing conservation practice-based cropping systems.

MeV Electron Precipitation During Radiation Belt Dropouts

AbstractTo gain deeper insights into radiation belt loss into the atmosphere, a statistical study of MeV electron precipitation during radiation belt dropout events is undertaken. During these events, electron intensities often drop by an order of magnitude or more within just a few hours. For this study, dropouts are defined as a decrease by at least a factor of five in less than 8 hours. Van Allen probe measurements are employed to identify dropouts across various parameters, complemented by precipitation data from the CALorimetric Electron Telescope instrument on the International Space Station. A temporal analysis unveils a notable increase in precipitation occurrence and intensity during dropout onset, correlating with the decline of SYM‐H, the north‐south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the peak of the solar wind dynamic pressure. Moreover, dropout occurrences show correlations with the solar cycle, exhibiting maxima at the spring and autumn equinoxes. This increase during equinoxes reflects the correlation between equinoxes and the SYM‐H index, which itself exhibits a correlation with precipitation during dropouts. Spatial analysis reveals that dropouts with precipitation penetrate into lower L‐star regions, mostly reaching L‐star &lt;4, while most dropouts without precipitation don't penetrate deeper than L‐star 5. This is consistent with the larger average dimensions of dropouts associated with precipitation. During dropouts, precipitation is predominantly observed in the dusk‐midnight sector, coinciding with the most intense precipitation events. The results of this study provide insight into the contribution of precipitation to radiation belt dropouts by deciphering when and where precipitation occurred.

Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of CLIMDEX indices

AbstractPrecipitation and temperature extremes from daily data indexed using the CLIMDEX methodology were calculated over the Central American region. The data comprises the coarsened versions of the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with stations (CHIRPs) and the corresponding data set for temperature (CHIRTs) from the year 1981 to 2020 and 1983 to 2016, respectively. The objective is to detect trend patterns in extremes in recent periods, use novel statistical techniques for assessing the trend significance and study the monthly and annual trends for each of the indices. Trends of extreme temperature indices show more consistent, robust and widespread significant results according with the observed warming of the region. Significant extreme precipitation indices trends are more localized, and therefore harder to analyse, but it seems that one robust result from several indices is the trend toward more intense extreme precipitation events in Costa Rica. The findings of this work suggest possible impacts in human and environmental systems across the region.

Regional characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Aotearoa New Zealand

We document 1394 extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over Aotearoa New Zealand’s (ANZ) Regional Councils between March 1996 and December 2021. The characteristics of EPEs are documented using a novel spatio-temporal framework that diagnoses the peak intensity, duration, and accumulation of the EPE using the ERA-5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis products. Properties of EPEs were evaluated according to region across ANZ, and clear regional differences are highlighted. In particular, it is found that the duration of an EPE has a stronger influence than the peak intensity on the total accumulated precipitation across all regions and precipitation event types (large-scale or convective). Since larger precipitation accumulations have greater potential to cause extensive flooding over larger areas, an important implication is the need for numerical weather prediction in ANZ to forecast the duration of an intense precipitation event adequately in order to improve emergency preparedness.

Improving forecasts of precipitation extremes over northern and central Italy using machine learning

AbstractThe accurate prediction of intense precipitation events is one of the main objectives of operational weather services. This task is even more relevant nowadays, with the rapid progression of global warming which intensifies these events. Numerical weather prediction models have improved continuously over time, providing uncertainty estimation with dynamical ensembles. However, direct precipitation forecasting is still challenging. Greater availability of machine‐learning tools paves the way to a hybrid forecasting approach, with the optimal combination of physical models, event statistics, and user‐oriented postprocessing. Here we describe a specific chain, based on a random‐forest (RF) pipeline, specialised in recognising favourable synoptic conditions leading to precipitation extremes and subsequently classifying extremes into predefined types. The application focuses on northern and central Italy, taken as a testbed region, but is seamlessly extensible to other regions and time‐scales. The system is called MaLCoX (Machine Learning model predicting Conditions for eXtreme precipitation) and is running daily at the Italian regional weather service of ARPAE Emilia‐Romagna. MalCoX has been trained with the ARCIS gridded high‐resolution precipitation dataset as the target truth, using the last 20 years of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reforecast dataset as input predictors. We show that, with a long enough training period, the optimal blend of larger‐scale information with direct model output improves the probabilistic forecast accuracy of extremes in the medium range. In addition, with specific methods, we provide a useful diagnostic to convey to forecasters the underlying physical storyline which makes a meteorological event extreme.

The impact of precipitation changes on the safety of railway operations in China under the background of climate change

Global climate change has intensified the water cycle, leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, posing a significant threat to railway infrastructure and safety operations. Based on the analysis of past and future precipitation changes in China, this study investigates the impact of climate change on railway safety operations. The study reveals the following findings: (1) Under the influence of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the northward shift of the subtropical high during the 2017–2021 compared to the 2012–2016, precipitation has significantly decreased (120 mm) in the regions south of the Yangtze River and South China, while it has increased (60 mm) in the regions from the eastern of Northwest China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; The operational precipitation risk has decreased for Urumqi, Lanzhou, Qinghai-Tibet Group, Xi’an, and Wuhan railway bureaus (abbreviated as Bureau), while it has increased for Nanchang, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang Bureaus. Particularly noteworthy is that despite a decrease in total annual precipitation for Nanchang bureau (15.3 mm/a), the frequency of intense precipitation events has increased, leading to an increased operational precipitation risk. (2) During the 21st century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that most of the China will experience an increasing trend in precipitation, with significant increases in precipitation observed in the regions south of the Yangtze Rive, South and Southwest China. The higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the more pronounced the increasing trend in precipitation. (3) Compared to the 20th century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that the total annual precipitation hours, railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have all increased on a national scale during the 21st century. The operational precipitation risk for railways has also increased. The higher the alert level for railway precipitation (precipitation &amp;lt; inspection &amp;lt; speed limit &amp;lt; closure), the higher the proportion of risk hours compared to the 20th century. By the late 21st century, the railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have increased by 175%, 463%, and 647%, respectively, compared to the 20th century.

Selection of urban flood shelter locations based on risk assessment

Within the framework of global climate change, there is a recurring occurrence of floods and waterlogging disasters, which pose significant risks to human lives and overall safety. The phenomenon of urbanization has led to an increased vulnerability of cities to flood disasters. Evacuation serves as a viable strategy for adapting to climate change, managing intense precipitation events, and mitigating the impact of flood disasters. Hence, the meticulous choice of shelters has emerged as a crucial element in enhancing the effectiveness of evacuations. Nevertheless, the process of choosing shelters sometimes neglects to consider the potential for flooding and has not undergone thorough testing. Hence, the objective of this research is to systematically choose shelters within the central metropolitan region, incorporate flood risk considerations into the shelter site model, and assist cities in mitigating the consequences of floods resulting from climate change. To begin with, employ a two-dimensional shallow water model in order to replicate instances of intense precipitation and produce data on flood inundation. Subsequently, the simulation results are utilized to assess the flood risk using the entropy weight approach. This risk is then incorporated into the multi-objective optimization model to determine the optimal shelter placement. Ultimately, the ABM model was employed to create a simulation of crowd evacuation in urban areas, confirming the efficacy of shelter selection and thoroughly examining the influence of various shelters on the efficiency of community emergency evacuation. The study's findings indicate that a total of 26 shelters were chosen within the study area using a multi-objective methodology, ensuring the inclusion of all affected populations. The utilization of multi-objective models in the selection of shelter places has been shown to enhance evacuation efficiency, as confirmed by the ABM model. The simulation findings indicate a decline in the population's death rate from 1.94% to 0.98%, an increase in the evacuation rate from 97.4% to 98.4%, and a reduction in the number of casualties by 133 individuals.

Sub‐MeV Electron Precipitation Driven by EMIC Waves Through Nonlinear Fractional Resonances

AbstractElectromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the Earth's outer radiation belt drive rapid electron losses through wave‐particle interactions. The precipitating electron flux can be high in the hundreds of keV energy range, well below the typical minimum resonance energy. One of the proposed explanations relies on nonresonant scattering, which causes pitch‐angle diffusion away from the fundamental cyclotron resonance. Here we propose the fractional sub‐cyclotron resonance, a second‐order nonlinear effect that scatters particles at resonance order n = 1/2, as an alternate explanation. Using test‐particle simulations, we evaluate the precipitation ratios of sub‐MeV electrons for wave packets with various shapes, amplitudes, and wave normal angles. We show that the nonlinear sub‐cyclotron scattering produces larger ratios than the nonresonant scattering when the wave amplitude reaches sufficiently large values. The ELFIN CubeSats detected several events with precipitation ratio patterns matching our simulation, demonstrating the importance of sub‐cyclotron resonances during intense precipitation events.

Spatiotemporal variability of the rainy season in the Yucatan Peninsula

AbstractThe rainfall regime is a critical factor in the Yucatan Peninsula, as the spatial and multiannual variability of rainfall is a major concern, particularly for crops. Variability in the rainy season was examined considering the onset and demise of the annual rainy season, the total rain volume, the rainfall season duration and the intense precipitation events recorded in meteorological stations (1978–2020). We analysed individual time series and calculated the long‐term trend. Additionally, we explored the relationship between each summer rainfall characteristic and several oceanographic indices using multivariate techniques. We also developed a Trans‐Isthmic Index from the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This index allows for determining the effect of the overall influence of the ocean on climate. The timeseries analysis revealed a high interannual variability and long‐term positive trends concerning the duration of the rainy season with earlier onset and later demise, and the total rainfall volume and also a positive trend for the occurrence of heavy precipitation suggesting a shift in intra‐annual patterns. Spatially, the analysis revealed clusters of stations with a similar variation, probably related to the AMO, NIÑO3.4 or TII indices. The spatial pattern was confirmed by analysing CHIRPS gridded precipitation data. Our results show that wetter conditions are associated with lower temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and warmer conditions in the Atlantic.

Assessing the forecasting accuracy of intense precipitation events in Iran using the WRF model

Assessing the forecasting accuracy of intense precipitation events in Iran using the WRF model

Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities

Abstract. There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to flooding in coastal regions. Therefore, high impacts are expected for urban agglomerations in coastal regions such as the densely populated Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Regional climate models (RCMs) such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are state-of-the-art tools commonly applied to predict TCs. However, typhoon simulations are connected with high uncertainties due to the high number of parameterization schemes of relevant physical processes (including possible interactions between the parameterization schemes) such as cumulus (CU) and microphysics (MP), as well as other crucial model settings such as domain setup, initial times, and spectral nudging. Since previous studies mostly focus on either individual typhoon cases or individual parameterization schemes, in this study a more comprehensive analysis is provided by considering four different typhoons of different intensity categories with landfall near the PRD, i.e. Typhoon Neoguri (2008), Typhoon Hagupit (2008), Typhoon Hato (2017), and Typhoon Usagi (2013), as well as two different schemes for CU and MP, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the model initialization and the driving data is studied by using three different initial times and two spectral nudging settings. Compared with the best-track reference data, the results show that the four typhoons show some consistency. For track bias, nudging only horizontal wind has a positive effect on reducing the track distance bias; for intensity, compared with a model explicitly resolving cumulus convection, i.e. without cumulus parameterization (CuOFF; nudging potential temperature and horizontal wind; late initial time), using the Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF; nudging only horizontal wind; early initial time) configuration shows relatively lower minimum sea level pressures and higher maximum wind speeds, which means stronger typhoon intensity. Intensity shows less sensitivity to two MP schemes compared with the CuOFF, nudging, and initial time settings. Furthermore, we found that compared with the CuOFF, using the KF scheme shows a relatively larger latent heat flux and higher equivalent potential temperature, providing more energy to typhoon development and inducing stronger TCs. This study could be used as a reference to configure WRF with the model's different combinations of schemes for historical and future TC simulations and also contributes to a better understanding of the performance of principal TC structures.

Topographic Elevation’s Impact on Local Climate and Extreme Rainfall: A Case Study of Zhengzhou, Henan

The topography significantly influences local climate precipitation and the intensity of precipitation events, yet the specific differences in its elevational effects require further understanding. This study focuses on precipitation in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, utilizing hourly data and a topographic elevation precipitation increment model to assess the impact of topography on local climate precipitation and extreme heavy rainfall events. The results indicate that the daily precipitation attributed to topographic elevation in Zhengzhou in July was 0.21 mm, accounting for 4.9% of the total precipitation. In the extreme heavy rainfall event on 20 July 2021 (“7.20” event), the precipitation due to topographic elevation reaches 48.7 mm, constituting 15.8% of the total precipitation. Additionally, numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the 20–21 July 2021 rainfall event in Zhengzhou show that the WRF model effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal characteristics of the precipitation process. The simulated topographic elevation precipitation intensity is 49.8 mm/day, accounting for 16.6% of daily precipitation, closely resembling observational data. Sensitivity experiments further reveal that reducing the heights of the Taihang Mountains and Funiu Mountains weakens the low-level easterly winds around Zhengzhou. Consequently, as the center of the heavy rainfall shifts northward or westward, the intensity of topographic elevation-induced precipitation decreases to 7.3 mm/day and 12.9 mm/day.

Water discharge and sediment flux intermittency in the fluvial Escanilla Formation, Spain: Implications for changes in stratigraphic architecture

AbstractWater discharge and sediment flux variations are important parameters controlling the morphodynamic behaviour of rivers. Although quantitative estimates for water discharge and sediment flux variability are well‐constrained for modern rivers, far fewer assessments of flow and sediment flux intermittency in ancient fluvial systems from the rock record are available. In this study, a relationship between water discharge, sediment flux variability and patterns of changing fluvial stratigraphic architecture in the Middle Eocene Escanilla Formation, Spain, is explored. Water discharge intermittency factor (IWF), calculated as a ratio of the total water discharge (over the averaging time period) to the instantaneous channel‐forming water discharge if sustained for the same period, ranges from 0.03 to 0.11 in the high amalgamation intervals and from 0.10 to 0.32 in the low amalgamation intervals. Similarly, the sediment flux intermittency factor (ISF) is estimated to be in the range of 0.008 to 0.01 in the high amalgamation intervals and of 0.01 to 0.03 in the low amalgamation intervals. Consequently, high amalgamation intervals were most probably deposited under more intermittent and short‐lived intense precipitation events while low amalgamation intervals were the result of less intermittent flows spread throughout the year. Overall, these estimates are consistent with values from modern ephemeral rivers typically found in arid to semi‐arid climate and is in agreement with available proxy data for the Middle Eocene climatic context of the studied alluvial system. This highlights an important connection between hydroclimate, river morphodynamics and landscape evolution, and has implications to predict river flow and sediment transport across the Earth's surface in the geological past.

Constraining Projected Changes in Rare Intense Precipitation Events Across Global Land Regions

AbstractRare precipitation events with return periods of multiple decades to hundreds of years are particularly damaging to natural and societal systems. Projections of such rare, damaging precipitation events in the future climate are, however, subject to large inter‐model variations. We show that a substantial portion of these differences can be ascribed to the projected warming uncertainty, and can be robustly reduced by using the warming observed during recent decades as an observational constraint, implemented either by directly constraining the projections with the observed warming or by conditioning them on constrained warming projections, as verified by extensive model‐based cross‐validation. The temperature constraint reduces &gt;40% of the warming‐induced uncertainty in the projected intensification of future rare daily precipitation events for a climate that is 2°C warmer than preindustrial across most regions. This uncertainty reduction together with validation of the reliability of the projections should permit more confident adaptation planning at regional levels.