Wind Intensity Research Articles

Game Theory-Based Comparison of Disaster Risk Assessment for Two Landfall Typhoons: A Case Study of Jilin Province’s Impact

Utilizing the best typhoon track data, district and county scale disaster data in Jilin Province, meteorological data, and geographical data, the combined weighting method of AHP-EWM (Analytic Hierarchy Process–Entropy Weight Method) and game theory is employed to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis and comparison of the disaster risk caused by two typhoons, Maysak and Haishen, in Jilin Province. Game theory enhances precision in evaluation beyond conventional approaches, effectively addressing the shortcomings of both subjective and objective weighting methods. Typhoon Maysak and Typhoon Haishen exhibit analogous tracks. They have successively exerted an impact on Jilin Province, and the phenomenon of overlapping rain areas is a crucial factor in triggering disasters. Typhoon Maysak features stronger wind force and greater hourly rainfall intensity, while Typhoon Haishen has a longer duration of rainfall. Additionally, Typhoon Maysak causes more severe disasters in Jilin Province. With regard to the four dimensions of disaster risk, the analysis of hazards reveals that the areas categorized as high risk and above in relation to the two typhoons are mainly located in the central-southern and eastern regions of Jilin Province. Typhoon Maysak has a slightly higher hazard level. During the exposure assessment, it was determined that the high-risk areas occupied 16% of the gross area of Jilin Province. It is mainly concentrated in three economically developed cities, as well as some large agricultural counties. In the context of vulnerability analysis, regions classified as high risk and above constitute 54% of the overall area. The areas classified as having high vulnerability are predominantly located in Yushu, Nong’an, and Songyuan. From the analysis of emergency response and recovery ability, Changchun has strong typhoon disaster prevention and reduction ability. This is proportional to the local level of economic development. The mountainous areas in the east and the regions to the west are comparatively weak. Finally, the comprehensive typhoon disaster risk zoning indicates that the zoning of the two typhoons is relatively comparable. When it comes to high-risk and above areas, Typhoon Maysak accounts for 38% of the total area, while Typhoon Haishen occupies 47%. The regions with low risk are predominantly found in Changchun, across the majority of Baicheng, and at the intersection of Baishan and Jilin. Upon comparing the disasters induced by two typhoons in Jilin Province, it was observed that the disasters caused by Typhoon Maysak were considerably more severe than those caused by Typhoon Haishen. This finding aligns with the intense wind and heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Maysak.

A framework for phenotyping rubber trees under intense wind stress using laser scanning and digital twin technology

Rubber trees in coastal habitats are exposed to a high degree of wind stress. An algorithm-hardware synergetic methodology was developed for investigating and predicting rubber tree phenotyping excited by strong winds. The framework includes (1) a custom-designed industrial fan that recreates a variable airflow field at wind speeds of 15, 30 and 45 m/s coupled with a terrestrial laser scanner and bundled motion sensors to acquire point clouds and vibration data; (2) a graphic model that approximates tree canopies based on foliage clumps with phenotypic traits that are derived from point clouds captured while trees are subjected to aerodynamic drag; and (3) the wind characteristic parameters of forest canopies were calculated by a developed forest-specialized k-ε turbulence model combining the constructed tree models and grid-scale subdivision of the wind fluid field. (4) A digital twin model that incorporates detailed tree phenotypic traits and considers plant mechanical characteristics was established, depicting the related wind-induced actions of target trees under various wind influences. The results show that tree crowns with spreading forms are prone to yield larger pendulum amplitudes than compact crowns, but trees directly exposed to wind exhibit greater crown volume reductions than trees in sheltered areas. Within tree canopies, a one-fold increase in inlet wind speed intensified crown compression (approximately 17 % decrease in crown volume), generated 2.1-fold pressure gradients and increased turbulence kinetic energy by approximately 60 %. Moreover, the entire scenario of the adaptation of experimental trees to wind perturbations was visually restored using digital twin techniques, serving as an integral behaviour dataset for further data-driven decision-making. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive methodology that can decipher the phenotypic manifestations of trees' reactions to wind hazards, with potential applications in phenotyping or envirotyping studies designed to evaluate the wind resistance properties of rubber trees.

Effect of ionic wind on the sample distribution in corona discharge ion mobility spectrometry

Ionic wind generated during corona discharge (CD) can significantly influence the airflow field within Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS), yet its impact is often overlooked. This study delves into the impact of ionic wind on sample distribution, emphasizing the need to balance reactant ion density and ionic wind intensity, which leads to sample dilution. To mitigate this issue, an axial injection mode employing a hollow needle was proposed, thereby improving the sensitivity and recovery performance of CD-IMS. As a result, the limit of detection of dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP) monomer is lowered from 15 ppbv to 5 ppbv. Furthermore, this technique was successfully applied to the detection of lithium battery electrolyte leaks, with carbonate concentrations as low as 10 mg/L or 1 nL being detected within 5 s. Such findings underscore the technique's applicability for swift and sensitive monitoring of battery safety.

CHIMBO Air Quality Modeling System: Verification and Processes Analysis

This study presents an evaluation of the CHIMBO modeling chain applied to the Italian domain, specifically focusing on the Po Valley subdomain over the one-year period of 2019. The comparison between simulated and observed data indicates that the performance of the CHIMBO model aligns well with existing literature on other state-of-the-art models. The results demonstrate that the CHIMBO chain is particularly effective for regional-scale quantitative assessments of pollutant distribution, comparable to that of CAMS ensemble models. The analysis of key chemical species in particulate matter reveals that the CHIMBO model accurately represents the average concentrations of organic and elemental carbon, as well as secondary inorganic compounds (sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium), particularly at background monitoring stations in the flat terrain of the Po Valley, with the exception of Aosta, a city located at about 500 m asl. However, seasonal discrepancies were identified, especially during winter months, when significant underestimations were observed for several species, including elemental and organic carbon, predominantly at background sites. These underestimations are likely attributed to various factors: (i) inadequate estimations of primary emissions, particularly from domestic heating; (ii) the limited effectiveness of secondary formation processes under winter conditions characterized by low photochemical activity and high humidity; and (iii) excessive dilution of pollutants during calm wind conditions due to overestimation of wind intensity. In conclusion, while the CHIMBO modeling chain serves as a robust tool for mesoscale atmospheric composition investigations, limitations persist related to emissions inventories and meteorological parameters, which remain critical drivers of atmospheric processes.

Extreme Saharan dust events expand northward over the Atlantic and Europe, prompting record-breaking PM10 and PM2.5 episodes

Abstract. Unprecedented extreme Saharan dust (duxt) events have recently expanded northward from subtropical NW Africa to the Atlantic and Europe, with severe impacts on the Canary Islands, mainland Spain and continental Portugal. These six historic duxt episodes occurred on 3–5 and 22–29 February 2020, 15–21 February 2021, 14–17 January 2022, 29 January–1 February 2022, and 14–20 March 2022. We analyzed data of 341 governmental air quality monitoring stations (AQMSs) in Spain (330) and Portugal (11), where PM10 and PM2.5 are measured with European norm (EN) standards, and found that during duxt events PM10 concentrations are underestimated due to technical limitations of some PM10 monitors meaning that they can not properly measure extremely high concentrations. We assessed the consistency of PM10 and PM2.5 data and reconstructed 1690 PM10 (1 h average) data points of 48 and 7 AQMSs in Spain and Portugal, respectively, by using our novel “duxt-r” method. During duxt events, 1 h average PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were within the range 1000–6000 µg m−3 and 400–1200 µg m−3, respectively. The intense winds leading to massive dust plumes occurred within meteorological dipoles formed by a blocking anticyclone over western Europe and a cutoff low located to the southwest, near the Canary Islands and Cape Verde, or into the Sahara. These cyclones reached this region via two main paths: by deviating southward from the Atlantic mid-latitude westerly circulation or northward from the tropical belt. The analysis of the 2000–2022 PM10 and PM2.5 time series shows that these events have no precedent in this region. The 22–29 February 2020 event led to (24 h average) PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations within the range 600–1840 and 200–404 µg m−3, respectively, being the most intense dust episode ever recorded on the Canary Islands. The 14–20 March 2022 event led to (24 h average) PM10 and PM2.5 values within the range 500–3070 and 100–690 µg m−3 in southeastern Spain, 200–1000 and 60–260 µg m−3 in central Spain, 150–500 and 75–130 µg m−3 in the northern regions of mainland Spain, and within the ranges 200–650 and 30–70 µg m−3 in continental Portugal, respectively, being the most intense dust episode ever recorded in these regions. All duxt events occurred during meteorological anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere characterized by subtropical anticyclones shifting to higher latitudes, anomalous low pressure expanding beyond the tropical belt and amplified mid-latitude Rossby waves. New studies have reported on recent record-breaking PM10 and PM2.5 episodes linked to dipole-induced extreme dust events from North Africa and Asia in a paradoxical context of a multidecadal decrease in dust emissions, a topic that requires further investigation.

Bottom–up propagation of synoptic wind intensification and relaxation in the planktonic ecosystem of the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector

ABSTRACT Synoptic intensification or relaxation of upwelling favorable winds are major sources of variability in eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study aims to investigate their impact on the planktonic ecosystem of the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector (SSUS), located south of the Cape Verde peninsula over a wide and shallow continental shelf. Numerical experiments using a three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model with four plankton functional types simulated the response of the coastal planktonic ecosystem to idealized synoptic (∼10 days) wind intensification and relaxation of the same amplitude. We find that these perturbations induce spatio-temporal oscillations of plankton concentrations. Zooplankton response occurred with a time lag that manifests itself in space as an equatorward/downstream shift in distribution relative to phytoplankton. Overall, the transmission of the synoptic perturbation from the physics to zooplankton is characterized by a damping in relative anomalies. All these elements and the weakness of the asymmetries in the biogeochemical/planktonic ecosystem responses between intensification and relaxation events support the hypothesis that synoptic variability has limited impact on the climatological state of low–latitude upwelling systems such as the SSUS. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY In some coastal regions of the world such as off Senegal, winds preferentially blow alongshore and induce subsurface, cold and nutrient rich waters to rise to the surface layer and favor the development of plankton blooms. These so-called upwelling favorable winds are not steady. Their fluctuations produce dynamical and biogeochemical variability over a broad range of scales. Here, we studied the biogeochemical effect of 10-day (i.e. weather or synoptic) wind fluctuations over the southern Senegal continental shelf. We used a numerical model with a simplified planktonic ecosystem consisting of two phytoplankton and two zooplankton size classes. The wind perturbations modulate ocean physics, the enrichment of the sun-lit surface layer in nutrients and the planktonic ecosystem. The plankton’s response to wind fluctuations exhibited oscillations more complex and relatively less intense than those of the wind. The modest effect of the studied short-term wind fluctuations on plankton found in this study may be specific to low-latitude coastal oceans with wide continental shelves.

Eastern Tropical Pacific atmospheric and oceanic projected changes based on CMIP6 models

Atmosphere and ocean dynamics and their projections for the 21st century are assessed in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, using an ensemble of 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – CMIP6, under two radiative scenarios. Projections in the Panama Bight (PB) and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue (CT) are studied in more detail. In the 2071–2100 period and SSP5-8.5 scenario, referenced to the 1985–2014 period, air temperature (sea surface temperature) is expected to rise ∼3.5 °C (∼3 °C). Precipitation is projected to increase > 3 mm day−1 in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and decrease toward the north. A similar meridional pattern is projected in sea level atmospheric pressure and sea surface salinity (SSS) with negative anomalies toward the south. Large seasonal variations, which dominate the region, are projected to remain similar for the rest of the century. However, in January-April a weakening in the Panama wind jet and intensification of surface wind in the CT is expected, while in the June-November season, a weakening of the Choco wind jet will affect both sub-regions. Mean sea surface height (SSH) is expected to decrease, probably dominated by barotropic wind effects over SSS reduction effect on SSH. However, sterodynamic sea level (SDSL) is projected to rise (∼21 cm) driven by the global mean thermosteric contribution. For the end of the century, a mean sea level rise of ∼69 cm is estimated in the ETP, with SDSL being about half the barystatic contribution. These projections should be used with caution, as climate models have shown limitation reproducing atmospheric and ocean observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the last decades, due to large internal variability and systematic biases.

Autonomous longitudinal separation control of aircraft in random wind fields based on MPC

Aiming at the problem of autonomous longitudinal separation under random disturbance of flight path, the random factor of high-altitude wind often leads to poor robustness of longitudinal separation between two aircraft. This paper proposes an autonomous longitudinal separation control method for aircraft based on model predictive control. Firstly, the nonlinear kinematic differential equation of the wind field difference between the two aircraft and the longitudinal separation is established, and the linear time-varying prediction model is derived. The longitudinal separation and path deviation distance of the two aircraft are selected as the optimization objectives, the high-altitude wind is the random disturbance, and the true airspeed and yaw angle of the leading aircraft are measurable. Terminal equality constraints are added to the air safety and aircraft performance constraints to maintain the stability of the system. To verify the effectiveness of the algorithm, within the prescribed simulation time of 120 seconds, this paper sets three groups of different expected intervals 12, 13, 14km. Through the designed MPC controller, by controlling the true airspeed and yaw angle of the trailing aircraft within the rolling time domain period, the interval curve between the two aircraft is relatively smooth and is always not less than the minimum safety interval of 10 km. It stabilizes at the expected target interval at the 74th, 90th and 118th seconds respectively, and begins to return to the route at the 58th, 74th and 95th seconds, and finally returns to the center line of the route; two groups of wind field control groups are set up, one group is the forecast wind intensity increased by 2 times, and the other group is the turbulent wind disturbance intensity increased by 8 times. Both can smoothly and stably establish the expected interval of 12 km at the 61st and 72nd seconds respectively.

Post-disaster investigations of damage feature of buildings and structures due to several local strong winds in China during 2021–2024

Local strong winds such as tornadoes and downbursts are rare in terms of measured wind speed data due to their rapid formation and strong destructive power. Post-disaster investigations have become an important approach for rating the strength of these two kind of winds and analyzing structural failure mechanism. From 2021 to 2024, several tornadoes and downbursts occurred in China. This study delineated changes in the intensity levels of wind disasters along their paths based on on-site disaster investigations and established standards for the level of structural damage based on the extent of functional loss and repair. This study focused on the damage feature to light steel structures, masonry structures, steel-concrete structures, and pole structures, and discussed the causes of the damage from the perspectives of construction and force transmission mechanisms. In addition, this study estimated the equivalent wind speeds based on the damage feature of pole structures and metal roof claddings. To reproduce the damage process for a group of high-rise buildings, the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) technology is used to simulate the airflow distribution inside buildings under two conditions of open and closed interior doors. The investigation results can provide useful information for the wind intensity classification and rating standards in China. Meanwhile, compared with the interior doors being open or closed, closing indoor doors during strong winds can significantly reduce indoor wind speeds, which is beneficial for ensuring safety.

Influence of mesoscale sea‐surface temperature structures on the Mediterranean cyclone Ianos in convection‐permitting simulations: Contributions of surface warming and cold wakes

AbstractThis study examined the influence of mesoscale sea‐surface temperature (SST) structures and warming on the tropical‐like cyclone Ianos. The controlling mechanisms were investigated using a set of sensitivity experiments with the non‐hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model. A simulation forced by a high‐resolution SST field from the mesoscale eddy‐resolving HYCOM reanalysis (CTRLH) performed better than a simulation forced by a coarse‐resolution SST field from Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) in terms of precipitation, wind intensity, and landfall location. The suppression of mesoscale SST variability affected the cyclone's intensity, its path, and associated processes. This effect depends on the nature of the anomalies (cold/warm). The suppression of mesoscale SST forcing intensified wind and precipitation in the presence of cold anomalies, leading to a northwestward shift of the storm's path during its mature phase. The magnitude of these changes varied with the scale of smoothing (mesoscale SST). Compared to the CTRLH simulation, a simulation in which a 60‐km smoothing filter was applied to the SST field resulted in a cyclone centered slightly to the west (or delayed by 3–6 hr), which was further shifted to the west (or delayed) when the smoothing filter was increased to 150 km. The intensification of wind and precipitation may be associated with the reduction in the storm's cold wake, which would lead to enhanced turbulent fluxes and increased atmospheric water vapor. These results highlight the role of small‐scale air–sea interaction processes that could have a strong impact on Mediterranean cyclones' path and intensity.

Evaluating vector winds over eastern China in 2022 predicted by the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast

Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate, as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources. However, limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the evaluation of numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we treat vector winds as a whole by employing a vector field evaluation method, and evaluate the mesoscale model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-MESO) and ECMWF forecast, with reference to ERA5 reanalysis, in terms of multiple aspects of vector winds over eastern China in 2022. The results show that the ECMWF forecast is superior to CMA-MESO in predicting the spatial distribution and intensity of 10-m vector winds. Both models overestimate the wind speed in East China, and CMA-MESO overestimates the wind speed to a greater extent. The forecasting skill of the vector wind field in both models decreases with increasing lead time. The forecasting skill of CMA-MESO fluctuates more and decreases faster than that of the ECMWF forecast. There is a significant negative correlation between the model vector wind forecasting skill and terrain height. This study provides a scientific evaluation of the local application of vector wind forecasts of the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast.

Role of thermospheric winds on the generation of F-region irregularities over Indonesian sector during the solar minimum year 2020

Analysis of ionosonde observations over Chumpon (10.7°N, 99.4°E, 3.3° Mag. Lat.) and Kototabang (0.2° S, 100.3° E, 10° S Mag. Lat.) during the low solar activity year 2020 reveals that the occurrence of post-sunset spread-F maximises during winter (November-February), whereas that of post-midnight spread-F maximises during summer (May-August). The thermospheric winds observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-Resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) on board the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) satellite over the Indonesian longitudes (95°E-115°E) are investigated to determine their impact on the generation of spread-F. The thermospheric winds at equatorial and low latitudes (10°N) are strongly eastward (> 50 m/s) around post-sunset hours (∼19:00 LST) in winter and equinox. The strong eastward wind is present only around midnight hours (after 22:00 LST) in summer. However, the present study reveals that the zonal wind does not contribute to the generation of plasma bubbles. Besides, the ICON-MIGHTI meridional wind at low latitude (10°N) is observed to be equatorward throughout the day during summer. Compared to the post-sunset hours, the intensity of trans-equatorial wind is stronger on the windward side (60–70 m/s) than on the leeward side (10–20 m/s) during midnight hours. The component of the equatorward meridional wind along the magnetic field lines can lift the F-layer to higher heights leading to a net decrease in the field line-integrated Pedersen conductivity thereby increasing the growth rate of the Rayleigh Taylor instability that can result in the generation of post-midnight spread F.

Dynamics Of Solar Wind And Cosmic Ray Interactions At The Edge Of Interstellar Space: Insights From Voyager 1 And IBEX Data Analysis

This research paper investigates the relationship between solar wind intensity and cosmic ray flux in the outer heliosphere, utilizing data from Voyager 1 and the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Voyager 1’s measurements beyond the heliopause, where the solar wind significantly weakens, show a marked increase in cosmic ray intensities, suggesting that solar wind acts as a modulating force. Meanwhile, IBEX's all-sky maps of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) offer complementary data, demonstrating how the solar wind interacts with the interstellar medium at the boundary of the solar system. By analyzing the inverse correlation between solar wind strength and cosmic ray penetration into the heliosphere, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic processes occurring at the solar system’s edge. The combined data from these missions not only enhance our understanding of space weather but also provide valuable insights into the broader interaction between the heliosphere and the interstellar medium. This research underscores the significance of continuous monitoring and multi-mission data integration for advancing our understanding of cosmic ray modulation and solar wind behavior in the outer reaches of the solar system.

A Dynamic Smagorinsky Model for Horizontal Turbulence Parameterization in Tropical Cyclone Simulation

AbstractThe horizontal turbulence parameterization is vital for the intensity and structure forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The default two‐dimensional (2D) standard Smagorinsky model with a single universal constant in Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model has been proven to be over dissipative for TC, leading to underprediction of TC intensity. This study provides the first attempt to implement the physically based 2D dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) for horizontal turbulence parameterization in WRF model for TC forecasts. The DSM dynamically computes the Smagorinsky coefficient as a function of the resolved flow during the simulation, avoiding the need to prescribe the coefficient a prior. The test results of the DSM in a TC NWP model show that the DSM can significantly improve the wind intensity forecasts compared to the standard Smagorinsky model.

Dust Pollution in Construction Sites in Point-Pattern Housing Development

Construction in cities and agglomerations is one of the main sources of air pollution in most countries in the world. Fine dust particles, PM0.5–PM10, which form as a result of construction processes, are among the most dangerous pollutants. With the increase in the volume of point-pattern housing development in cities, the task of maintaining clean air and environmental conditions becomes important. This requires research, the monitoring of dust emissions throughout the entire construction period and the development of design solutions based on the results obtained. The study examines the determination of the dispersed composition of dust generated on a construction site. A graphical representation of the dispersed composition is given by constructing integral curves on a logarithmic grid and approximating them using two-link and three-link splines. The gravimetric measurement method was used to analyze the concentration of dust in the air released during construction work near residential areas. Dust analysis at the construction site revealed significant differences in particle size that cannot be explained by statistical errors alone. The reasons for this are both working conditions and climatic factors, including humidity and wind intensity. In this regard, it is preferable to use models that take into account random processes instead of traditional deterministic methods to study the dust that shapes during construction.

Rapid simulation method for assessing seismic damage to building curtain walls on a regional scale using designed wind load capacity

This study introduces a rapid simulation method for assessing seismic damage to building curtain walls at a regional scale. Although the results are approximate, this approach enables quick evaluations, making it an important instrument for emergency responses during disaster situations. This method’s independence from numerical models is a noteworthy advantage. Unlike conventional approaches, it eliminates the need for structural analysis models when evaluating the seismic capacities of curtain walls regionally. Creating reliable structural analysis models is both time-consuming and labor-intensive, primarily due to the detailed design information they require. In contrast, the presented method leverages the wind load capacities for which curtain walls are designed. It is based on the core premise that most curtain walls, primarily designed for wind resistance, possess wind load capacities that could serve as substitutes for their seismic capacities, even if they are not explicitly designed for such seismic loads. To assess the method’s effectiveness, it was applied to seismic damage assessments across regions experiencing varying wind intensities: weak, moderate, and strong. The results suggest the likelihood of curtain walls sustaining seismic damage in regions with weak wind could be five times higher than in regions with strong wind. This underscores the importance of seismic design considerations for curtain walls. Moreover, the findings closely match the actual seismic damage assessment data from a region with a moderate to strong wind intensity.

Mark-Release-Recapture Trial with Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) Irradiated Males: Population Parameters and Climatic Factors.

Aedes albopictus is considered one of the major invasive species in the world and can transmit viruses such as dengue, Zika, or chikungunya. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) can be used to suppress the native populations of Ae. albopictus. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies are crucial to support the development of the release strategy during the SIT application. Meanwhile, weather conditions can affect the MRR trial's results and it is critical to understand the influence of climatic factors on the results. In October 2022, 84,000 irradiated sterile males were released for three consecutive weeks in Faro, Southern Portugal. Mosquitoes were recaptured by human landing collection (HLC) one, two, four, and six days after release. Generalized linear models with a negative binomial family and log function were used to estimate the factors associated with the number of recaptured mosquitoes, prevalence ratios, and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 84,000 sterile male mosquitoes were released, with 528 recaptured (0.8%) by HLC. The prevalence of recaptured mosquitoes was 23% lower when the wind intensity was moderate. Marked sterile males had an average median distance travelled of 88.7 m. The median probability of daily survival and the average life expectancy were 61.6% and 2.1 days, respectively. The wild male population estimate was 443.33 males/ha. Despite no statistically significant association being found with humidity, temperature, and precipitation, it is important to consider weather conditions during MRR trial analyses to obtain the best determinant estimation and a more efficient application of the SIT in an integrated vector management program.

Holocene aeolian environmental dynamics in fixed and semi-fixed deserts over the arid Central Asia revealed by comprehensive sand-dune records

Fixed and semi-fixed deserts are widely distributed in arid Central Asia (ACA). Environmental changes in these deserts can affect the regional radiation balance, climate dynamics, and global climate through a series of feedback effects. This study analyzed luminescence dating from 37 sites, with a particular focus on dendritic dunes (a pattern of vegetated linear dunes) and the ancient dunes beneath them in the Gurbantunggut Desert and yielded the following insights. (1) Primary ridges of dendritic dunes originated approximately 1.0 ka, whereas secondary ridges predominantly formed at 8.5 ± 0.3 ka. The formation of the underlying ancient dunes commenced at least 11.0 ± 0.5 ka and ended between 8.5 ± 0.3 ka and 8.2 ± 0.4 ka. (2) During the Holocene, the Gurbantunggut Desert underwent two distinct environmental phases. From 11.7 ka to 8.1 ± 0.1 ka, the region was characterized by vigorous aeolian activity, marked by the prevalence of mobile dunes. Conversely, the period from 8.1 ± 0.1 ka to 0 ka exhibited substantial environmental amelioration, with limited aeolian activity and the intermittent partial development of vegetated linear dunes. (3) A comprehensive analysis of the principal factors affecting regional aeolian activity revealed that at 11.7 ka–8.1 ± 0.1 ka, moisture (precipitation) and near-surface wind intensity primarily governed aeolian activity in the Gurbantunggut Desert. At 8.1 ± 0.1 ka–0 ka, aeolian activity was mainly influenced by moisture (precipitation), near-surface wind intensity, and external sand supply. (4) Similar patterns of Holocene aeolian activity were observed in the fixed Bayanbulak, Karakum, and Kizil Kum Deserts within the ACA. On a suborbital scale, winter insolation served as the primary driving factor, along with the ice volume and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These factors collectively controlled regional winter temperatures, which determined moisture (precipitation) and near-surface wind intensity by affecting the winter westerlies and Siberian High, ultimately controlling regional aeolian activity.

Evaluation of an immersed boundary numerical framework to address the wind field in complex urban topographies

Estimating the wind velocity field in an urban area is important for pedestrian comfort and safety, as the local wind velocities dictate the transport of heat and air pollution in urban environments. Therefore, it is an essential requirement to assess wind patterns when designing urban areas. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical solvers are usually employed to estimate the wind comfort in an urban area under different wind intensities and directions. However, CFD simulations are expensive in terms of time, especially when many scenarios are addressed to ensure safety and comfort for multiple conditions. Here, a CFD framework based on an immersed boundary approach to discretize the urban topography is developed and validated against experimental data in a wind tunnel and two different standard body-fitted mesh codes. The new solver employs a structured cartesian octree grid automatically generated from Lidar data of urban topographies. The advantages are eliminating the complex and time-consuming pre-processing of urban topographies and making the framework accessible to urban planners without CFD expertise. Furthermore, the code is equipped with GPU parallelization that further reduces the computational time. Provided that the best practice guidelines for urban simulations are satisfied, in particular at least 10 cells between two buildings, the code shows very good agreement in all the tests comprising of a simplified and real urban neighborhood highlighting the importance of accurately solving the complex terrain topography of an urban region when non-negligible elevation changes of the order of 20/40 meters are present.

Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study.

Seasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of Ae. aegypti infestation index. We collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the period 2008-2018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of São Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities. Our results showed a relevant positive effect for El Niño on the Ae. aegypti larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Niño events (i.e., ≥ 1°C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30°C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of São Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable to proliferation of the vector, there were specific areas with a greater tendency for mosquito infestation, since the most vulnerable areas are predominantly situated in the central and northern regions of the state, with hot spots of abundance in the south, especially during El Niño events. Our findings also indicate that social disparities present in the municipalities contributes to Ae. aegypti proliferation. Considering the anticipated rise in both the frequency and intensity of El Niño events in the forthcoming decades as a consequence of climate change, the urgency to enhance our ability to track and diminish arbovirus outbreaks is crucial.