Intense Hurricane Activity Research Articles

Centennial‐Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability

AbstractEvent‐based paleohurricane reconstructions of the last millennium indicate dramatic changes in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes on centennial timescales. It is difficult to assess whether the variability captured in these paleorecords is related to changing climate or randomness. We assess whether centennial‐scale active and quiet intervals of intense hurricane activity occur in a set of synthetic storms run with boundary conditions from an earth system model simulation of the last millennium. We generate 1,000 pseudo sedimentary records for a site on South Andros Island using a Poisson random draw from this synthetic storm data set. We find that any single pseudo sedimentary record contains active and quiet intervals of hurricane activity. The 1,000‐record ensemble average, which reflects the common signal of climate variability, does not. This suggests that the record of paleohurricane activity from The Bahamas reflects variability in hurricane frequency dominated by randomness and not variability in the climatic conditions.

A 1600 year-long sedimentary record of tsunamis and hurricanes in the Lesser Antilles (Scrub Island, Anguilla)

The Lesser Antilles are a densely populated region where local populations and industrial facilities are concentrated at the coastlines, and are therefore exposed to many rapid-onset hazards such as hurricanes and tsunamis. However, the historical catalog of these events is too short to allow risk assessment and return period estimations, and it needs to be completed with long-term records of washover deposits in coastal sedimentary environments such as lagoons. In this study, two sediment cores were taken in March 2018 in a small coastal lagoon on Scrub Island (northeastern Caribbean). Sedimentological, geochemical, microfaunal and chronological analyses enabled us to identify 25 sandy layers resulting from high-energy-marine floods. Two of these layers were interpreted as tsunami deposits based on sedimentological (rip-up clast of the underlying cohesive substrate and internal mud laminae), and geochemical evidence. The most recent deposit is associated with the transatlantic tsunami triggered by the 1755 CE Lisbon earthquake. The older one is the thickest sandy layer recorded in the lagoon, with an age range of 1364–1469 cal. CE, as determined using 14C dating. This event was recorded in sedimentary archives of both the northern and the southern part of the Caribbean, with its large spatial extent, supporting a distant tsunamigenic origin. The 23 remaining sandy layers were interpreted as storm deposits, based on sedimentological and chronological data, with the three most recent layers being correlated with historical hurricanes. This new 1600 year-long record displays similarities with that of the Bahamas, with the periods of intense hurricane activity being in antiphase with those of the north-eastern US coast. This regional comparison may provide evidence for a latitudinal forcing of hurricane tracks through time in relation to climate fluctuations.

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years at South Andros Island, The Bahamas

AbstractHurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.

A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.

A Regional Compound Poisson Process for Hurricane and Tropical Storm Damage

SummaryIn light of intense hurricane activity along the US Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic effect and the behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson–log-normal process has been proposed as a model for aggregate storm damage but does not shed light on regional analysis since storm path data are not used. We propose a fully Bayesian regional prediction model which uses conditional auto-regressive models to account for both storm paths and spatial patterns for storm damage. When fitted to historical data, the analysis from our model both confirms previous findings and reveals new insights on regional storm tendencies. Posterior predictive samples can also be used for pricing regional insurance premiums, which we illustrate by using three different risk measures.

The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin.

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Palaeohurricane reconstructions from sedimentary archives along the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western North Atlantic Ocean margins

Abstract Hurricanes annually threaten the Atlantic Ocean margins. Historical hurricane records are relatively short and palaeohurricane sedimentary archives provide a geological and climatic context that sheds light on future hurricane activity. Here we review palaeo-trends in hurricane activity elucidated from sedimentary archives. We discuss dating methods, site selection and statistics associated with previously published records. These archives have been useful for understanding the long-term evolution of coastal systems and the response of intense hurricane activity to climatic changes. Regional shifts in hurricane overwash on centennial to millennial timescales have been linked to various climatic modes of variability, including El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, but could also reflect regional-scale controls on hurricane activity.

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon

The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.

The Current Debate on the Linkage Between Global Warming and Hurricanes

AbstractFollowing Hurricane Katrina and the parade of storms that affected the conterminous United States in 2004–2005, the apparent recent increase in intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, and the reported increases in recent decades in some hurricane intensity and duration measures in several basins have received considerable attention. An important ongoing avenue of investigation in the climate and meteorology research communities is to determine the relative roles of anthropogenic forcing (i.e., global warming) and natural variability in producing the observed recent increases in hurricane frequency in the Atlantic, as well as the reported increases of tropical cyclone activity measures in several other ocean basins. A survey of the existing literature shows that many types of data have been used to describe hurricane intensity, and not all records are of sufficient length to reliably identify historical trends. Additionally, there are concerns among researchers about possible effects of data inhomogeneities on the reported trends. Much of the current debate has focused on the relative roles of sea‐surface temperatures or large‐scale potential intensity versus the role of other environmental factors such as vertical wind shear in causing observed changes in hurricane statistics. Significantly more research – from observations, theory, and modeling – is needed to resolve the current debate around global warming and hurricanes.

Revisiting the catastrophic die-off of the urchin Diadema antillarum on Caribbean coral reefs: Fresh insights on resilience from a simulation model

In 1983, the dominant urchin of Caribbean coral reefs ( Diadema antillarum) experienced massive disease-induced mortality and its functional extinction persists to this day. Concurrently, reports of coral disease, coral bleaching and nutrification began to appear and many Caribbean reefs have deteriorated in the last two decades. Here, we describe a spatial simulation model of physical and ecological processes occurring on a dominant Caribbean for reef habitat, often referred to as Montastraea reef. The model uses a square lattice to simulate the dynamics of two types of hard coral (a brooder and spawner), cropped algal substrata and macroalgae. Grazing occurs independently by Diadema and parrotfishes and influences the competitive interactions between corals and macroalgae. Four important types of disturbance are simulated: loss of the urchin Diadema, hurricanes, fishing of parrotfishes and nutrification. We use the model to revisit the impact of losing the keystone herbivore, Diadema. The urchin imparted great resilience to Caribbean reefs in the face of severe disturbances including: high hurricane frequencies (once per decade), overfishing of scarids and a range of nutrification levels, including a doubling of the vertical growth rate, vegetative growth rate and colonisation rate of macroalgae. Parrotfishes are able to compensate for the loss of this urchin under a limited range of physical and ecological conditions. When not exploited, parrotfishes allow coral to persist at least at equilibrial levels when hurricane frequencies drop to around once every 20 years (e.g. those found in Central America). However, coral cover declined under decadal hurricane frequencies which may partly explain observations in regions of intense hurricane activity such as Florida. Parrotfish grazing is sufficiently intense to mitigate nutrification impacts providing that the cover of corals is not heavily depleted by other processes such as hurricanes and disease. Indeed, the cover of living coral exhibits a strong interaction with both grazing and nutrification in determining the survival of coral recruits. Reefs of higher coral cover have greater resilience for a given level of nutrification or grazing and therefore management efforts that arrest declines in coral cover will build greater natural resilience in the system. The model provides a strong case for conserving parrotfishes because reef decline is predicted to be inevitable when urchins are scarce and fishing of grazers is intense (e.g. to the levels seen in Jamaica). Lastly, the model provides a new perspective on the bottom-up versus top-down debate of macroalgal blooms in Jamaica. Nutrification impacts are predicted to be most important when urchins are scarce and parrotfishes are relatively lightly exploited. Therefore, a full understanding of the impact of nutrification will only occur if no-take marine reserves permit scarid biomass to reach unexploited levels. Under these conditions, coral cover is only predicted to increase if nutrification levels are low.

Statistical aspects of major (Intense) Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950–1998): Implications for the current season

Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir‐Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥50 m s−1), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950–1998 are investigated in relation to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated “more” versus “less” activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as “non‐El Niño‐related” (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is ≈ 53%, while it is only ≈ 14% when it is classified as “El Niño‐related” (ENR). Including the activity levels (“more” versus “less”), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be ≈ 71% for the “more‐NENR” season, 30% for the “less‐NENR” season, 17% for the “more‐ENR” season, and 12% for the “less‐ENR” season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a “more‐NENR” season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4±1 or higher.

Studying the importance of hurricanes to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast

A pilot study was recently begun dealing with the impacts and post‐storm adjustment of barrier islands to severe storms along the northern Gulf of Mexico. The study, funded by the National Science Foundation, may lead to a more comprehensive understanding of coastal morphodynamics and longer term evolution of the coast in that area. Study of the recent impacts and post‐storm adjustment of the area to Hurricane Georges is playing a very important role in enhancing our comprehension of the significance of these high‐energy events in coastal dynamics.A few hours before dawn on September 28, 1998, Hurricane Georges made landfall near Biloxi along the Mississippi Gulf Coast (Figure 1) as a strong Category 2 system (as defined by the Saffir/Simpson scale: Simpson, 1974). Waves off the Mississippi/Louisiana coast exceeded 10 m in height and storm surge varied between 2–3 m. The entire stretch of coast from the modern Mississippi delta to the Florida Panhandle, a distance in excess of 200 km, was severely impacted by the hurricane through overwash and breaching of the barrier islands, and erosion of the distal ends of the sub‐deltas and major distributaries comprising the Birdsfoot delta in Louisiana. Near the landfall zone, the Category 2 storm impacted the coastline with estimated sustained winds of over 45 ms−1, and rainfall between 300 and 400 mm in coastal Mississippi. Georges was the sixth storm to impact this stretch of coast since 1995, the most severe being Hurricane Opal, at its strongest a powerful Category 4 system that made landfall east of Pensacola Beach, Florida, as a marginal Category 3 hurricane [see Eos article by Stone et al., 1996; Lawrence et al., 1998]. The cumulative impact of storms during this period of intense hurricane activity has altered significantly the morphology of the Northwest Florida coast. A review of historical photographs dating back to the early 1900's suggests that the entire coast is now in quite probably the most degraded morphological condition of the 20th century.

Seasonal Prediction Models for North Atlantic Basin Hurricane Location

Using multivariate discriminant analysis techniques, statistically significant and skillful models are developed for making extended-range forecasts of hurricane activity within specific locations of the North Atlantic basin. These forecasts predict the presence or absence of hurricane activity and not the actual number of storms that will occur within a region. Successful models are developed for predicting intense hurricane activity in both the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean subbasins separately. Extended-range forecasts of all hurricane activity are also possible within the Caribbean Sea. More significantly, lead-time forecasts of landfalling hurricanes on the southeastern Atlantic coast of the United States are possible and show a substantial improvement over climatology. Extended-range forecasts of hurricane activity for the northeastern United States and for the Gulf of Mexico are not feasible due, respectively, to the relative lack and abundance of hurricane activity. Crossvalidated forecast accuracies range from 78% to 81% for the regions in which successful models can be developed. An all-possible subsets selection algorithm is used to identify the predictor models, while bootstrap techniques are used to assess model significance. Statistical tests using normal approximations are employed to compare cross-validated (hindcast) forecast accuracy to climatology.

A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes

The variability of intense (or major) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is investigated on both intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Differences are highlighted in characteristics between intense hurricanes and the weaker minor hurricanes and tropical storms. Intense hurricanes show a much more peaked annual cycle than do weaker tropical cyclones. Ninety-five percent of all intense hurricane activity occurs during August to October. In addition, over 80% of all intense hurricanes originate from African easterly waves, a much higher proportion than is observed for weaker cyclones. Of all classes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, the intense hurricanes display the greatest year-to-year variability. The incidence of intense hurricanes also has decreased during the last two decades. A small portion of this decreased activity appears to be due to an overestimation of hurricane intensity during the period spanning the 1940s through the 1960s. After adjusting for this bias, however, a substantial downward trend in intense hurricane activity during recent years is still apparent. Given that intense hurricanes are responsible for more than 70% of all destruction caused by tropical cyclones in the United States, an understanding is needed of the physical mechanisms for these observed variations of intense hurricane activity.

Strong Association Between West African Rainfall and U.S. Landfall of Intense Hurricanes

Intense hurricanes occurred much more frequently during the period spanning the late 1940s through the late 1960s than during the 1970s and 1980s, except for 1988 and 1989. Seasonal and multidecadal variations of intense hurricane activity are closely linked to seasonal and multidecadal variations of summer rainfall amounts in the Western Sahel region of West Africa. The multidecadal nature of West African precipitation variations and their association with variations of intense Atlantic hurricane activity can be observed in data going back nearly a century. The apparent recent breaking of the 18-year Sahel drought during 1988 and 1989 suggests that the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast and in the Caribbean basin will likely increase during the 1990s and early years of the 21st century to levels of activity notably greater than were observed during the 1970s and 1980s.