Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Integrated SEAWAT model and GALDIT method for dynamic vulnerability assessment of coastal aquifer to seawater intrusion

Seawater intrusion (SI) has become a global issue exacerbated by intense anthropogenic activities and climate change. It is imperative to seek a synergistic strategy to reconcile environmental and economic benefits in the coastal regions. However, the intricate SI process and data scarcity present formidable challenges in dynamically assessing the coastal groundwater vulnerability. To address the challenge, this study proposed a novel framework that integrates the existing vulnerability assessment method (GALDIT) and variable-density groundwater model (SEAWAT). The future scenarios from 2019 to 2050 were investigated monthly under climate change (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) and human activities (80 % and 50 % of current groundwater abstraction) in Longkou city, China, a typical coastal region subject to extensive SI, compared with the status quo in 2018. Results indicated that by 2050, the high vulnerability area, is in a narrow buffer within 1.2 km from the shoreline and exhibits minor changes while the salt concentration here increased by about 2700 mg/L compared with the current situation. The moderate vulnerability zone expands by about 30 km2, and the low vulnerable area decreases proportionally. The groundwater over-abstraction is identified as a more critical factor compared to the regional precipitation under climate change. When groundwater abstraction is reduced to 80 % of the current scale, the expansion rate of the moderate-vulnerable area slows down significantly, with an expansion area of only 18 km2 by 2050. Further reducing groundwater abstraction to 50 % of the current scale shifts the evolution trend of the medium-vulnerable area from expansion to contraction, with the area shrinking by about 11 km2 by 2050. The integrated vulnerability assessment framework can be applied not only in the similar coastal regions but also provides insights into other natural hazards.

Providing an Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Indicator System (VAIS) to Measure the Spatial Vulnerability of Areas near Seveso Establishments in Thessaloniki (Greece)

The most efficient way to reduce damage and losses in metropolitan areas with complex functions that are exposed to disaster risks is to reduce their vulnerability, which necessitates an assessment of the urban system’s vulnerability. Regarding the areas located near Seveso establishments, they are characterized by high levels of vulnerability, both spatially and sectorally, as they present an increased risk due to the possible occurrence of large-scale industrial accidents. In this study, a vulnerability assessment indicator system (VAIS) that assesses the vulnerability presented in the areas located near Seveso facilities was proposed. The VAIS consisted of social, environmental and spatial indicators, and an assessment of the indicators was carried out by collecting the appropriate data. The study area is located in the western part of Thessaloniki and includes the Seveso site and the adjacent municipal districts. Prioritization of the examined municipal districts based on their overall vulnerability was carried out using multicriteria analysis methods. The results showed that there was a convergence among the three categories of vulnerability (social, environmental and spatial) in the areas that presented the highest vulnerability. The MD of Kalochori (MD7) was the most vulnerable MD in the study, while the less vulnerable ones varied depending on the vulnerability category (social, environmental or spatial) considered each time. The proposed methodology may prove to be a highly useful tool in decision-making processes when used by the relevant authorities who are qualified to define and implement a site-specific security management system.

Integrated seismic vulnerability assessment of road network in complex built environment toward more resilient cities

The road network is recognized as an important infrastructure system that is playing an essential role in making cities more sustainable and resilient. Hence, it is crucial to increase the safety and resiliency of urban road networks against external shocks such as earthquakes, by ensuring that they function efficiently within the complex-built environment systems in that they reside. Previous research on disaster risk management for road networks focused mainly on the assessment of the physical vulnerability for one criterion, without considering multiple vulnerability criteria of the road infrastructure and its interaction with the built environment. The primary goal of this research is to present an integrated vulnerability assessment approach based on intrinsic and eccentric characteristics of road networks. The proposed method employs two Vulnerability Indexes (VI); the first one assesses the Intrinsic Seismic Vulnerability (ISVI) of the network that considers the direct physical damage of the roadway system, while the second one, is the Eccentric Seismic Vulnerability (ESVI) that is based on the damage of the surrounding damaged buildings surrounding the roads. Subsequently, the correlation between the assessed indexes is utilized to provide a more holistic assessment tool in support of emergency and evacuation plans during earthquake incidents. These indexes are applied to assess the accessibility to emergency critical service centres based on a territorial framework for an urban area. The methodology and case study show the importance of the integrated seismic vulnerability assessment in the resilience of critical city infrastructure, for enhancing emergency access and implementing effective risk mitigation measures.

Climate change and shifting land-use: Consequences for smallholder agroforestry systems and rural livelihoods in the southwest Ethiopian Highlands

ABSTRACT Applying a Regional Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (RIVAS), this study aims to identify the local farming system characteristics of 54 smallholder agroforestry farms in Kafa Zone (Ethiopia), their climate change vulnerability, and how they are affected by current land-use changes. The study combines semi-structured interviews with a biophysical characterization of farm systems. The results show that the assessed farming systems’ multifunctionality is essential to rural livelihoods while sustaining crop and tree diversity. While dry season crop diversity drives household’s sufficiency and capacity to respond to crop failure, medium-low sufficiency of production in more than a third of the assessed systems, as well as soil degradation in cereal fields lessen adaptive capacity. For their contribution to climate resilience, diverse and perennial cropping regimes should be supported and maintained.

The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China

The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China

Spatial dimension of climate change vulnerability and urbanization relationship in Nigeria

ABSTRACT The interaction between urbanization and climate change and their associated impact on human society is increasingly being documented. This study concerns the relationship between urbanization and climate change vulnerability. Specifically, it investigates the spatial aspect of the relationship between climate change vulnerability and urbanization in Nigeria. The study is vital because the relationship between urbanization and climate change in Africa has remained unclear. An exploration and comprehension of country-specific relationships in Africa have remained scarce. In Nigeria, efforts to research climate change vulnerability (CCV) have not looked at its connection with urbanization. Via an integrated vulnerability assessment and based on secondary data, the paper examines the effect of urbanization on climate change vulnerability. It argues that urbanization does not significantly increase CCV in Nigeria. It shows that urbanization and CCV have a significant negative relationship in Nigeria, suggesting that more urban states have lower levels of CCV than relatively more rural states. However, it indicates that relatively more urban states in Nigeria tend to have lower sensitivity and higher adaptive capacity to climate change, but there is no clear rural-urban difference in exposure to climate change. It follows that while there is a rural-urban disparity in CCV, individual components of vulnerability may exhibit a different relationship with urbanization. Thus, it concludes that the impact of climate change is dynamic and complex. Hence, there is a need to open the urbanization-climate change nexus to a lively debate to further climate change scholarship. Thus, while taking an all-inclusive approach to addressing climate change is desirable, it is vital also to explore the impacts of individual elements that comprise vulnerability.

Assessment of Vulnerability of Croplands to Climate Variability in Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Nigeria

Despite the wide coverage of study on vulnerability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria over the years, it was observed that no emphasis has been placed on assessment of vulnerability of croplands to climate variability using the integrated vulnerability assessment and Geo-Informatics technique. This was achieved by determining the climate variability pattern in FCT from 1981 to 2017, determining the exposure index and the degree of sensitivity of croplands to climate variability, assessing the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate variability, evaluating the vulnerability of croplands to climate variability and developing vulnerability maps of croplands using the information produced. Yam, beans and maize were used as referenced crops in this study. Indicators were generated and analyzed on the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study used the mixed research design. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to assign weight to the indicators. The weights were used to generate the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices which were used to generate the vulnerability index map. Aggregate vulnerability index (AVI) was finally determined from the weighted sum of all indicators and used to produce the vulnerability map of the six Area Councils. The study shows that Gwagwalada Area Council has the highest vulnerability (0.2323) and Abaji Area Council has the lowest (0.005). Kwali and AMAC Area Councils were highly vulnerable to climate variability (Kwali 0.1562, AMAC 0.1565). Kuje Area Council has low vulnerability (0.0273) to climate variability. Bwari Area Council showed moderate vulnerability (0.0982). The implication of the results is that the three crops (maize, beans and yam) will produce moderately at moderate vulnerability while their production will be marginal and optimal at very high and very low vulnerabilities respectively. Crop production will be optimum in Abaji, marginal in Gwagwalada and moderate in Bwari. The study also revealed that vulnerability assessment is essential in determining the varying degrees of vulnerability in different localities. It also provides information that can help researchers, policy makers, private and public institutions in planning location-based adaptation strategies and prioritizing allocating limited resources in FCT. Agriculture should be heavily subsidized in terms of providing irrigation infrastructure to farmers to reduce over-reliance on rain fed agriculture. Installation of early weather warning system manned with expertise should be made available in all the Area Councils to provide timely and accurate climatic information to farmers.

Creating a quantitative, ecosystem-service-based index of nature in the highly urbanized and arid Los Angeles County

Before evaluating the abundance and quality of nature in a city, one must define the concept of nature according to resident experience and climatological conditions. For Los Angeles (L.A.) County, home to a sociologically diverse and highly developed city in a Mediterranean climate that experienced drought conditions for the last decade, this represents a formidable theoretical and empirical challenge. In support of an Integrated Vulnerability Assessment, we developed an index of natural resources with the aid of local partnerships. This effort required local expert participation and resulted in the creation of a large database of available regional data. This index was created to investigate the spatial footprint of natural resources in relation to predicted high risk natural hazard areas. This paper demonstrates analytical applications of this index, which consists of six component indicators: greenness, biodiversity, habitat fragmentation, significant ecological areas, tree canopy cover, and wetland cover. Data for each component were compiled into a geodatabase, scaled, aggregated to Census block group areas, and combined to create the natural resources index (the Index). The Index can then be compared with natural hazard spatial data to determine relative vulnerability to these hazards, interactions with other types of vulnerabilities, and where adaptive capacity may be lacking. Results highlight areas of opportunity for multifaceted risk mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Development of Vulnerability Framework for Assessing the Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts in Four Districts of Delhi, India

Air pollution and its deleterious public health risks are a major concern across the world. It is one of the leading health risk factors causing high mortality and disease burden in many cities. Epidemiological risk assessment studies have generated considerable evidence of disease burden due to air pollution. Such evidence proves useful as inputs for framing various air quality management and public health protection policies. Implementation of these policies also necessitates a critical insight from a perspective of differential population vulnerability to air pollution. Hence, the present study proposes a methodological approach for developing an integrated vulnerability assessment framework that focuses on multidimensional aspects adhering to vulnerability in nexus with health risk characterization. The designed framework has been applied in a pilot case study undertaken in four districts of Delhi, India. Weightage has been multiplied by a normalized score for each indicator to calculate the vulnerability score. The score reflects relative vulnerability level based on the components – emission load, exposure, land use–land cover features, sensitivity and coping capacity. Findings of the study have shown maximum score for East Delhi and minimum score for New Delhi. Hence the study throws light on the factors that are contributing towards the vulnerability of human health to air pollution.

Adapting food systems to the twin challenges of phosphorus and climate vulnerability: the case of Sri Lanka

Two of the biggest global challenges for food security – phosphorus scarcity and climate change – are threatening farmers’ livelihoods, agricultural productivity and environmental integrity. In Sri Lanka, the agricultural sector is comprised largely of smallholder farmers where rain-fed rice is often a staple. Yet climate change projections indicate rice yields could drop by 40%, affecting the majority of farmers, and poverty levels could increase from 17% to 33%. At the same time, fertilisers are highly subsidized, without which farmers in this import-dependent island state would be exposed to future price fluctuations like the 800% phosphate price spike in 2008. Collaborative research between Sri Lankan and Australian researchers investigated the capacity of smallholder farmers, policy-makers and other food system stakeholders in Sri Lanka to adapt to these twin challenges via a participatory rapid integrated vulnerability assessment framework. We find that while Sri Lanka is vulnerable, there are many adaptive strategies already in place or planned. Although these strategies are not driven by climate change adaptation or phosphorus scarcity, they could be strengthened to support phosphorus and climate smart agriculture (PACSA). Sri Lanka’s food production is in the midst of a major transformation, largely driven by the President’s push for organic agriculture and organic fertilisers, waste-to-energy systems implemented through public-private partnerships, and the National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change. There are many ‘win-win’ PACSA opportunities both on- and off-farm, such as developing crop varieties that are drought-tolerant and need less phosphorus fertiliser and improved cold storage in the food value chain to reduce food losses.

Climate change and shifting land-use: consequences for smallholder agroforestry systems and rural livelihoods in the southwest Ethiopian Highlands.

Abstract Applying a Regional Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (RIVAS), this study aims to identify local farming system characteristics, their climate change vulnerability and how they are affected by current land use changes. Results show that the assessed farming systems' multifunctionality is essential to rural livelihoods whilst sustaining crop and tree diversity. While dry season crop diversity drives household's sufficiency and capacity to respond to crop failure, medium-low productivity in more than a third of the assessed systems, and soil degradation in cereal fields lessen adaptive capacity. For their contribution to climate resilience diverse and perennial cropping regimes should be promoted and maintained.

Soil erosion vulnerability and adaptation strategies in maize field of Sindhukhola sub-watershed region, Nepal

Erosion is a major concern of hill maize farming system. Watersheds with steep slope and fragile land are more prone to erosion. A perception based semi structured questionnaire survey was carried out in Thakani and Sindhukot of Melamchi municipality in Sindhupalchowk district to study relationships of erosion in maize field along with assessment of vulnerability and factors affecting adoption of prevention measures. Index ranking method and descriptive statistics were used to rank the perception of farmers pertaining to occurrence, causes and available control measures of erosion. Logit regression further assessed the determinants of adoption of erosion prevention measures where as vulnerability was assessed using integrated vulnerability assessment approach following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline. Most of the surveyed farmers responded heavy rainfall as major cause of the erosion followed by weak geography whereas the intensity of erosion was moderately increasing. Majority of the respondents (72.5%) have not adopted any erosion prevention measures mainly due to no support from government and low income. Among various adaptation measures, most of the farmers have shifted cultivation time, improved drainage system and decreased weeding frequency. The logit regression showed that among the independent variables, income, education, gender, access to extension services and involvement in organizations are positively significant to the adoption decision. This implies farmers in prone area need support from government to adopt prevention measures. Low income household dependent on agriculture and marginal farmers were more vulnerable to erosion as they have low adaptive capacity and resilience power.

Coastal erosion vulnerability assessment along the eastern coast of Bangladesh using geospatial techniques

Coastal zones are physically, socially, and economically important. However, many coastal zones are highly vulnerable to coastal erosion due to high population density, tourist attractions, developed economy, and lowland. Erosion vulnerability assessment with limited criteria and components cannot provide detailed and accurate results. Therefore, an integrated vulnerability assessment of coastal erosion is essential to produce detailed and accurate erosion vulnerability information to support mitigation strategies. This study aims to prepare an integrated coastal erosion vulnerability approach using geospatial techniques and examine the pattern of vulnerability to coastal erosion effects in the eastern coastal region of Bangladesh. Thirteen spatial criteria under two components of vulnerability, namely, physical and socio-economic vulnerability, were assessed. These criteria were weighted on the basis of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and then combined to generate individual vulnerability indices. Finally, the overall vulnerability map was produced by integrating physical and social vulnerability indices. Results showed that the area of very high vulnerability includes 11% of the region, and the area of high vulnerability was 24%. Parts of Chittagong Port, Cox's Bazar, Kutubdia, Teknaf, Ukhia, Anowara, and some portions of Moheshkhali regions close to the coastline of the study site are likely to experience high vulnerability of coastal erosion impacts. The area was classified as a low- and very-low-vulnerability zone, representing 27% and 8%, respectively. For evaluating the efficiency of the outcome, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) technique was used to validate the physical erosion vulnerability results, which stated an 85.2% success rate and 80.1% prediction rate of the produced results. The findings can be used by concerned authorities to protect coastal erosion and minimise its effects on properties and coastal environments.

An Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Electronic Commerce Websites

An Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Electronic Commerce Websites

Indicator based integrated vulnerability assessment of community forests in Indian west Himalaya

The Himalaya is often referred to as forested landscape, which provides a range of ecosystem services vital for sustaining life of billions of people. The region is recognized amongst the 35 global biodiversity hotspots for its unique and rich biodiversity. Also, the region is highly vulnerable to perturbations due to anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Especially the forests in the region are subject to stress from such perturbations. The higher dependency of communities on forests and changing climate has impacts on structure and function of forest ecosystems. This has severe implications for forest dependent communities. Therefore, vulnerability assessment of forests is urgently needed to understand the likely consequences of these changes and responses. Such information would help in developing better management and conservation planning. Earlier studies on vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people have failed to acknowledge the importance of spatial and temporal aspects of vulnerability investigated through field based observations. Realizing this, present study focuses on forest vulnerability assessment through field based observations along an altitudinal gradient (700–3400 m) in the Indian west Himalaya. This study, for the first time, provides vulnerability assessment of community forests at local scale following integrated approach of multiple indicators across diverse domains. The vulnerability indicators have been identified through a systematic analysis and extensive review of the available literature. A total of 14 indicators in six domains (viz. forest, climate, anthropogenic, topographic, soil and management practices) were identified to assess inherent vulnerability of Community Forests (Van Panchayats) in the target region. Furthermore, Forest Vulnerability Index (FVI) was calculated by integrating the selected indicators across domains. The results revealed high vulnerability at low altitude (<1200 m) forests. Disturbance index, expansion of invasive species and people dependency has emerged as the major factors responsible for forest vulnerability in the region. The value of FVI declined significantly (R2 = 0.51, p < 0.001) with increasing altitude range. The study also analysed perceptions of inhabitant community regarding dependency on forest resources, management practices and status of community forest in the studied area. The outcomes of this study would help in developing management interventions and strategies to ensure sustainable management of forest resources in the targeted landscape in particular and Indian Himalaya in general.

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of Mumbai city, India

Climate change (CC) is one of the most challenging problems of today which need to be understood. CC impact studies at the urban centres are the need of the hour. Mumbai is one of the most vulnerable port cities in the world and one of the most densely populated cities in the world. The city is vulnerable to CC-induced hazards, including sea-level rise, storm surge, flooding, and coastal erosion. In this study, it is tried to do the spatial integration of vulnerability from these hazards to portray the overall CC-induced impacts in Mumbai city. This study portraits the overall vulnerability of the Mumbai megacity, considering SLR, long-term coastal erosion, and flooding. This integrated vulnerability assessment reveals that 123.35 km2 (24%) of the Mumbai regions is demarcated as composite vulnerable regions. They are mostly around the coastal tracts. Within the vulnerable regions, inland flood-affected areas from the past floods area are 37.13 km2, which is around 30% of the demarcated most vulnerable regions. Remaining vulnerable areas are falling in built up, barren, forest, vegetation, and mangrove regions. The most worrying impact would be in the 44 km2 of the built-up areas, which is around 35% of the vulnerable regions. It pulls the city to one of the most vulnerable cities of the world due to the exposure of the higher population. Rest of all the classes can cope up as they are naturally covered, not covered, and the human population is not residing over those regions currently. Since the city is expanding rapidly, other LULC classes apart from built-up land have to be converted based on the need. Available barren land can be kept for rehabilitation in the future. This study provides vital information about the CC-induced vulnerability of Mumbai city.

An integrated approach for assessing the vulnerability of World Heritage Sites to climate change impacts

Abstract One of the most difficult problem facing those responsible for managing World Heritage Sites (WHS) is climate change, as it poses continuous new challenges to the conservation of cultural heritage. Moreover, as our climate continues to change our cultural heritage will potentially be exposed to diverse pressures and potentially to risks not previously experienced. Thus, management practices will need to be tailored in order to include climate change impacts. For climate change impacts to be incorporated into preservation frameworks and management practices from government policy level down to the practice in the field, data, information and assessment methods need to be available at a scale relevant to decision-makers. This paper presents an integrated vulnerability assessment methodology and applies it to three UNESCO cultural WHS in Europe. Through this process, semi-structured interviews were conducted with academics and experts in the management and conservation of cultural heritage, as well as with the managers and coordinators of WHS. The incorporation of bottom-up knowledge in the assessment process allowed for an understanding of the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the sites, two components of vulnerability that are not given sufficient attention and ignored, respectively, in typical top-down climate change impact assessments. In particular, the interviews elucidated the determinants that enable or constrain the capacity to adapt, i.e., resources, including technical, economic and human; information and awareness; management capacity; learning capacity; leadership; communication and collaboration; and governance; with the lack of resources most commonly mentioned as the determinant impeding adaptation. ‘Information and awareness’ and ‘management capacity’ are determinants that were not previously identified in the field of cultural heritage. The former stresses the need to disseminate the results of scientific research for their incorporation in the management of heritage sites. Vulnerability assessments such as those performed in this paper can be used to target interventions to protect and strengthen the resilience of cultural heritage to climate change impacts.

A Web Platform for Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Cyber Risk Management

Cyber risk management is a very important problem for every company connected to the internet. Usually, risk management is done considering only Risk Analysis without connecting it with Vulnerability Assessment, using external and expensive tools. In this paper we present CYber Risk Vulnerability Management (CYRVM)—a custom-made software platform devised to simplify and improve automation and continuity in cyber security assessment. CYRVM’s main novelties are the combination, in a single and easy-to-use Web-based software platform, of an online Vulnerability Assessment tool within a Risk Analysis framework following the NIST 800-30 Risk Management guidelines and the integration of predictive solutions able to suggest to the user the risk rating and classification.

Integrated urban flood vulnerability assessment using local spatial dependence-based probabilistic approach

Vulnerability assessment is an essential step for urban flood risk management. Due to the objective existence of statistical errors in the variables and spatial heterogeneity, as well as the similarity of flood experience, precautionary status and environments for neighbouring areas, an urban flood vulnerability assessment essentially entails a multi-factor decision-making process that accounts for uncertainties and the local spatial dependence of neighbourhoods. To address these issues, an uncertainty-based vulnerability assessment approach embedded with an improved moving split-window (IMSW) analysis and probabilistic method is proposed. To develop an integrated urban flood vulnerability assessment model, three technical issues need to be resolved: (1) the development of damage curves of land-use types, (2) an uncertainty model and spatial dependence model of damages based on an IMSW analysis, and (3) an uncertainty-based framework to quantify vulnerability considering the uncertainties and local spatial dependence of the damage curves as well as the spatial heterogeneity of risky assets simultaneously. The proposed method is applied to an urban area in China and provides an integrated vulnerability assessment for different land-use types. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed to analyse the spatial differentiation and the dominant parameters of vulnerability. Compared with two other commonly used methods, the proposed local-correlated method (LCM) is more in line with reality, and provides more reasonable information for making a better-informed decision.

Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

Abstract. This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water-level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 44 % in area exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood damages when considering water-level attenuation. The reductions vary by country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to not accounting for water attenuation in global assessments of flood risk are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of sea-level rise expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions to account for the process of water-level attenuation, which depends on numerous factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that an improved understanding and representation of the temporal and spatial variation of water levels across floodplains is essential for future impact modelling.