Integrated Risk Assessment Framework Research Articles

Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change.

Climate change is an environmental emergency threatening species and ecosystems globally. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of anthropogenic heat and 20%-30% of the carbon emissions, resulting in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, changes in ocean stratification and nutrient availability, and more severe extreme events. Given predictions of further changes, there is a critical need to understand how marine species will be affected. Here, we used an integrated risk assessment framework to evaluate the vulnerability of 132 chondrichthyans in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) to the impacts of climate change. Taking a precautionary view, we found that almost a quarter (23%) of the ETP chondrichthyan species evaluated were highly vulnerable to climate change, and much of the rest (76%) were moderately vulnerable. Most of the highly vulnerable species are batoids (77%), and a large proportion (90%) are coastal or pelagic species that use coastal habitats as nurseries. Six species of batoids were highly vulnerable in all three components of the assessment (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). This assessment indicates that coastal species, particularly those relying on inshore nursery areas are the most vulnerable to climate change. Ocean warming, in combination with acidification and potential deoxygenation, will likely have widespread effects on ETP chondrichthyan species, but coastal species may also contend with changes in freshwater inputs, salinity, and sea level rise. This climate-related vulnerability is compounded by other anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing and habitat degradation already occurring in the region. Mitigating the impacts of climate change on ETP chondrichthyans involves a range of approaches that include addressing habitat degradation, sustainability of exploitation, and species-specific actions may be required for species at higher risk. The assessment also highlighted the need to further understand climate change's impacts on key ETP habitats and processes and identified knowledge gaps on ETP chondrichthyan species.

Assessing the multi-dimensional impact of lead-induced toxicity on collembola found in maize fields: From oxidative stress to genetic disruptions

The prolonged exposure of agricultural soils to heavy metals from wastewater, particularly in areas near industrial facilities, poses a significant threat to the well-being of living organisms. The World Health Organization (WHO) has established standard permissible limits for heavy metals in agricultural soils to mitigate potential health hazards. Nevertheless, some agricultural fields continue to be irrigated with wastewater containing industrial effluents. This study aimed to assess the concentration of lead in soil samples collected from agricultural fields near industrial areas. Subsequently, we determined the lethal concentration (LC50) of lead (Pb) and other heavy metals for two Collembola species, namely Folsomia candida, a standard organism for soil ecotoxicity tests, and comparing it with Proisotoma minuta. The research further examined the toxic effects of lead exposure on these two species, revealing depletion in the energy reservoirs and alterations in the tissue histology of both organisms. The study revealed that lead can induce genotoxic damage as it evidently has moderate binding affinity with the ct-DNA and hence can cause DNA fragmentation and the formation of micronuclei. Elevated lipid peroxidation (LPO) levels and protein carbonylation levels were observed, alongside a reduction in antioxidant enzymes (CAT, SOD & GPx). These findings suggest that lead disrupts the balance between oxidants and the antioxidant enzyme system, impairing defense mechanisms and consequential derogatory damage within microarthropods. The investigation elucidates a complex network of various signaling pathways compromised as a result of lead toxicity. Hence, it presents a novel perspective that underscores the pressing necessity for implementing an integrated risk assessment framework at the investigated site.

Incorporating ecosystem services into comparative vulnerability and risk assessments in the Pearl River and Yangtze River Deltas, China

Coastal river deltas face high risks from multiple natural hazards due to the combined effects of human activities, natural processes, and climate change. Vulnerability and risk assessments are essential for reducing and managing risks and, in the process, contribute to sustainable development. Despite adopting a social-ecological and multi-hazard perspective, previous risk assessments failed to achieve balanced consideration of both social and ecological sub-systems. To address this gap, we used an integrated risk assessment framework which incorporates the role of ecosystem services (ES) as a core component. A modular indicator library of ES indicators relevant to coastal river deltas was used to characterize multi-risks in the Pearl and Yangtze River deltas. Results indicate a higher risk level in the Pearl River Delta, with the key drivers of vulnerability and risk varying with scales. Visualizing hazard-prone and highly vulnerable areas facilitates the implementation of targeted management measures and policies to reduce disaster risks from natural hazards. Ecosystem services have been identified as important factors of the risk profiles, and their inclusion in risk reduction strategies ensures that policies can be put in place that allow ecosystems to provide services sustainably to communities.

An integrated risk assessment framework for multiple natural disasters based on multi-dimensional correlation analysis

An integrated risk assessment framework for multiple natural disasters based on multi-dimensional correlation analysis

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Identification of Network Vulnerabilities through IISRA Framework

Abstract: As the globe transitions to complicated networks and as we move towards digitization, its worth is rising daily. Working in an organization across a network and the internet creates vulnerabilities. As is well known, data is a crucial component of every organization and must be safeguarded from threats. The attackers' job is to try and take advantage of the networks by using these weaknesses. When organizations use the Internet, intranets, and related technologies more frequently, system security becomes one of the key considerations. Network security protects computer systems from unauthorized threats and breaches, which lowers the likelihood that confidential information may be stolen. The organization will feel more secure if these vulnerabilities are closed up in the systems and network well in advance of an attack. The availability of numerous technologies for network vulnerability assessment enables organizations to thwart potential attacks. In this research paper, we have developed an Integrated Information Security Risk Assessment (IISRA) Framework for identification of Network Vulnerabilities. We have implemented this IISRA Framework on real computing environment of an organization.

Integrated risk assessment framework for transformation products of emerging contaminants: what we know and what we should know

Integrated risk assessment framework for transformation products of emerging contaminants: what we know and what we should know

An integrated risk assessment framework using information theory-based coupling methods for basin-scale water quality management: A case study in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin, China

As the second largest reservoir in China, the Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJKR) serves as the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC), i.e., the currently longest (1273 km) inter-basin water diversion project in the world, for more than eight years. The water quality status of the DJKR basin has been receiving worldwide attention because it is related to the health and safety of >100 million people and the integrity of an ecosystem covering >92,500 km2. In this study, basin-scale water quality sampling campaigns were conducted monthly at 47 monitoring sites in river systems of the DJKRB from the year 2020 to 2022, covering nine water quality indicators, i.e., water temperature (WT), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index (CODMn), five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), ammonia nitrogen (NH3−N), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and fluoride (F−). The water quality index (WQI) and multivariate statistical techniques were introduced to comprehensively evaluate water quality status and understand the corresponding driving factors of water quality variations. An integrated risk assessment framework simultaneously considered intra and inter-regional factors using information theory-based and the SPA (Set-Pair Analysis) methods were proposed for basin-scale water quality management. The results showed that the water quality of the DJKR and its tributaries stably maintained a “good” status, with all the average WQIs >60 of river systems during the monitoring period. The spatial variations of all WQIs in the basin showed significantly different (Kruskal-Wallis tests, P < 0.01), while no seasonal differences were found. The increase in built-up land use and agricultural water consumption revealed the highest contributions (Mantel's r > 0.5, P < 0.05) to the rise of nutrient loadings of all river systems, showing the intensive anthropogenic activities can eclipse the power of natural processes on water quality variations to some extent. The risks of specific sub-basins that may cause water quality degradation on the MRSNWDPC were effectively quantified and identified into five classifications based on transfer entropy and the SPA methods. This study provides an informative risk assessment framework that was relatively easy to be applied by professionals and non-experts for basin-scale water quality management, thus providing a valuable and reliable reference for the administrative department to conduct effective pollution control in the future.

Multivariable integrated risk assessment for cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lakes and its spatiotemporal characteristics

Climate change has catalyzed the global expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic , lakes and threatens water security. In most studies, the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in lakes were evaluated using field-collected data from multiple indicators or spatially continuous data from one cyanobacteria-related indicator. Nevertheless, the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes has clear spatial heterogeneity and is affected by numerous factors. Therefore, we developed a multivariable integrated risk assessment framework for cyanobacterial blooms in lakes using five spatially continuous datasets to estimate the risk level of cyanobacterial blooms at the pixel scale (250 m). The spatial and temporal variations in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels from May 1, 2002, to October 31, 2020, were investigated for three typical eutrophic lakes in China: Lakes Taihu, Chaohu, and Dianchi. Seasons and regions of high cyanobacterial bloom risk were identified for each lake. Environmental characteristics were discussed. A long-term investigation revealed that owing to its warm climate, the cyanobacterial risk levels in summer and autumn were much higher than those in the other two seasons. At the synoptic scale, Lake Taihu had a lower cyanobacterial bloom risk than Lakes Chaohu and Dianchi. A further comparison found that precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were responsible for the differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels among the three lakes. At the pixel scale, the risk map indicated that the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels of Lake Taihu were unevenly distributed, and the cyanobacterial bloom risk of the lakeshore was higher than that of the other subregions. Nutrient levels played the most critical role in the regional differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in a lake. While the differences of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in three lakes were resulted by the climates. Bloom events were defined and classified as “long-term bloom” or “flash bloom” according to their duration (over or below a year). Overall, this study can assist in advanced water management with a pixel-scale evaluation of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels.

A Novel Safety Assessment Framework for Pavement Friction Evolution Due to Traffic on Horizontal Curves

The friction coefficient is one of the dominant parameters affecting vehicle driving stability on horizontal curves. However, there is no comprehensive framework to assess the traffic safety on the horizontal curve with the evolution of the friction coefficient caused by the traffic flow. In light of this, this paper developed an integrated risk-assessment framework to evaluate the safety on the horizontal curve with the friction coefficient evolving under different traffic characteristics. The speed distribution on the horizontal curve of the freeway is obtained through field experiments that serve as the basic parameters of the model. A new multi-vehicle risk index (MRI) is introduced to assess the traffic safety risk for the horizontal curve by coupling the reliability theory and negative binomial. Three traffic characteristics are considered in the analysis: cumulative traffic volume (CTV), annual average daily traffic (AADT), and average daily traffic of heavy goods vehicles (AADTHGV). The results show that the AADT and AADTHGV have a considerable impact on the road risk level. When the truck traffic volume is less than 1000 veh/d, the risk of horizontal curves changes less as road operational time goes. The research results can provide a reference for the road maintenance department to determine the timing of road maintenance.

An integrated environmental risk assessment framework for coal-fired power plants: A fuzzy logic approach.

This study quantifies the environmental risk of a coal-fired thermal power plant during operation by using environmental monitoring data, site surveys, and documented evidence. The following criteria are assessed: emissions (CO, SO2 , NOx , PM10 ), impact on aquatic ecosystem (fish protection at cooling water intake and cooling water discharge temperature), and waste management (fly ash and bottom ash). Fuzzy sets were defined for each criterion, taking environmental regulatory context as an expert judgment. A survey was conducted with multiple stakeholders to determine the relative importance of risk factors. The survey results showed that the most concerned risks are SO2 and NOx emissions. The proposed method estimates the risk of each environmental criterion separately and then accumulates them into an environmental risk index (ERI). Accordingly, we assessed the Catalagzi coal-fired power plant, which has been in operation on the Black Sea coast in northwestern Turkey. For this case study, the ERI resulted in a value of 0.78 (on a scale of 0-1), showing high environmental risk to the facility. Moreover, the applicability of the proposed framework was tested in several existing coal-fired power plants using simultaneous measurements. All studied coal-fired power plants in Turkey have unacceptable pollutants (PM10 , SO2 , and NOx ) concentration levels indicating high health risk potential. The application of the integrated environmental risk assessment framework showed that new environmental regulations are needed in Turkey to specify more strict emission limits and to monitor CO2 , fine particulate matter emissions, cooling water discharge, and fish protection at cooling water intake.

Hydrogen Infrastructure Project Risks in The Netherlands

This study aims to assess the potential risks of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure in the Netherlands. An integrated risk assessment framework, capable of analyzing projects, identifying risks and comparing projects, is used to identify and analyze the main risks in the upcoming Dutch hydrogen infrastructure project. A time multiplier is added to the framework to develop parameters. The impact of the different risk categories provided by the integrated framework is calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Despite resource risks having the highest impact, scope risks are shown to be the most prominent in the hydrogen infrastructure project. To present the DCF model results, a risk assessment matrix is constructed. Compared to the conventional Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) used to present project risks, this matrix presents additional information in terms of the internal rate of return and risk specifics.

An Integrated Flood Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework: A Case Study for Middle Cedar River Basin, Iowa, US

Property buyout is one of the most frequently preferred flood mitigation applications by decision-makers for long-term risk reduction. Due to its high-level funding requirements as a mitigation solution, it requires extensive benefits and costs analysis for the selected region. Many communities in the State of Iowa experienced extreme flood events (i.e., 1993, 2008, 2014, 2019), which resulted in a heavy economic impact over the last couple of decades. Nearly 3000 property acquisitions have been made between 2007 and 2017 using federal programs. This study presents a web-based Flood Risk Assessment and Mitigation Environment (FRAME), which provides visual data analytics capabilities to analyze property and community level benefit-cost analysis for property acquisitions. The FRAME allows users to explore and visualize historical mitigation projects and buyouts, and evaluate avoided damages for their communities. As a case study, a detailed benefit-cost analysis of historical property buyouts and direct losses of existing properties in the Middle Cedar watershed in Iowa is studied using stream gauge data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Projected stream gauge datasets, which are outputs of two climate scenarios (A1FI-fossil intensive and A2-low emission), are also utilized to assess future avoided losses for acquisitions and possible direct economic losses for existing properties. Case study results indicate that the average benefit-cost ratio (BCR) for buyouts in the studied region is around 0.86. Nearly half of the buyouts reached 4.72 BCR in low emission and 6.3 BCR in fossil intensive climate projections if future floods are considered.

A stepwise integrated risk-assessment framework in aquaculture: the case of sea lice tolerance to freshwater treatments on salmon farms

Aquaculture studies are often faced with data limitations when carrying out a quantitative risk assessment. Consolidating results from a literature search of potentially applicable methods, we propose a stepwise integrated methods approach that incorporates foundations from an antimicrobial resistance framework, the Office International Epizooties risk model, quantitative microbial risk assessment and infectious disease transmission models. We suggest that an initial ranking profile can be used to prioritize more in-depth qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, when data are available. The ranking method was done using a software that provides practical and interactive graphics for visualizing the impact of different factors and their respective weights on the likelihood of undesirable events (hazards) occurring. For this step, we illustrate how to include available data to obtain ranking results for decision makers using information from a recent sea lice freshwater tolerance literature review (Groner et al. 2019) that identified a gap in quantitative data. In our case example, for copepodid sea lice life stages, hypothetically changing how much experts believe that location and time are important factors revealed the most impact on the ranking for different degrees of freshwater tolerance evolution (no evolution, various partial options, known evolution). The factors ‘location’ and ‘time’, as well as ‘freshwater treatment’, have the greatest impact on the ranking for the preadult sea lice life-stages model. Results from our proposed ranking method can help to drive decisions around interpreting the various factors as they apply to mitigation planning and prioritizing those that should be included in further research. Additionally, we identify where quantitative data could be incorporated, as they become available, into a full risk assessment model with suggested models for a freshwater tolerance risk analysis framework.

Risk Assessment of an Electrical Power System Considering the Influence of Traffic Congestion on a Hypothetical Scenario of Electrified Transportation System in New York State

With the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), more and more interactions appear between the transportation system and the power system, which might provide new hazards and channels for the proliferation of failures across the boundaries of the individual systems. In this context, this paper proposes an integrated risk assessment framework for an electric power system, considering scenarios that involve the electrified transportation system enabled by EVs charging technology in New York (NY) State. Firstly, scenarios in the transportation network of NY State, e.g. of reduced capacity and incident, are generated by a Monte Carlo non-sequential algorithm. Then, the cell transmission model (CTM) is used to simulate the evolution of the traffic flows under such scenarios. This allows evaluating the spatial-temporal EV charging loads in different areas of the electrified transportation system of NY State. Correspondingly, the running parameters in the studied power system are updated by the alternative current (AC) power flow model. Finally, the risk for the power system coming from the transportation system scenarios is assessed within a probabilistic risk analysis framework. The proposed integrated risk assessment framework is able to model the propagation of the effects of scenarios in the transportation system onto the power system of NY State and quantify the consequences. A real test case is used to illustrate the proposed framework.

Analysis of Loss of Control Parameters for Aircraft Maneuvering in General Aviation

A rapid increase in the occurrence of loss of control in general aviation has raised concern in recent years. Loss of control (LOC) pertains to unique characteristics in which external and internal events act in conjunction. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has approved an Integrated Safety Assessment Model (ISAM) for evaluating safety in the National Airspace System (NAS). ISAM consists of an event sequence diagram (ESD) with fault trees containing numerous parameters, which is recognized as casual risk model. In this paper, we outline an integrated risk assessment framework to model maneuvering through cross-examining external and internal events. The maneuvering is in the critical flight phase with a high number of LOC occurrences in general aviation, where highly trained and qualified pilots failed to maintain aircraft control irrespective of the preventive nature of the events. Various metrics have been presented for evaluating the significance of these parameters to identify the most important ones. The proposed sensitivity analysis considers the accident, fatality, and risk reduction frequencies that assist in the decision-making process and foresees future risks from a general aviation perspective.

An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate

The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake ‘what if’ management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria

Over the past five decades, Nigeria has developed a number of contaminated land legislations to address the damage caused primarily by oil and gas exploitation activities. Within these legislations exists elements of risk assessment and risk-based corrective action. Despite this progress, we argue that contaminated land management approaches in Nigeria need further development to be able to integrate new scientific information, and to address environmental, economic, and social values. By comparison, advanced contaminated land regimes in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America (USA) apply a number of integrative approaches (e.g. sustainability appraisal, liability regime, funding mechanisms, technology demonstration) that enable them to meet the environmental, economic, and social needs of their populations. In comparison, Nigerian governance lacks many of these mechanisms and management of contaminated land is ad hoc. In this paper we propose an integrated risk assessment framework for Nigeria that incorporates the principles of sustainability and stakeholder engagement into the decision-making processes for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management. The integrated approach relies on transparency to promote acceptance and build trust in institutions, and uses stakeholder engagement to address data deficiencies. We conclude this paper with a roadmap for how Nigeria might implement such an integrative approach into their existing contaminated land regulatory system, as well as identify a series of policy priorities that should be addressed.

Integrated Risk-Assessment Framework for Municipal Infrastructure

AbstractDecision-makers frequently argue that municipal infrastructure is at risk. Given the current state of risk for infrastructure, municipalities face challenging decisions to plan the integrated repair/renewal of road, water, and sewer (RWS) networks. The research presented in this article identifies a methodology and framework that facilitates decision-making processes used during corridor rehabilitation project planning. A risk-based decision-making approach is developed to aid integrating repair/renewal of RWS assets. The risk model was developed using a mixed Delphi-Analytical Hierarchy Process approach. The impacts of four main consequences of failure with eighteen subfactors were considered. The RWS networks indices were amalgamated and grouped into an overall integrated risk index using K-means Clustering technique. Data provided by the City of Guelph was used in a case study in order to demonstrate the model features. Results show that pipe/road size and accessibility factors had the highest ...

An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: The Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong

Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity.