Integrated Resource Planning Research Articles

Increasing the deployment of Solar PV in the commercial sector in South Africa: Buildings as assets for energy transition

South African electricity system is undergoing energy transition towards increased use of renewable energy. The share of coal generated power was 83% in 2022 versus 94% a decade ago and 8% of electricity was generated with renewables. At large utility scale, the integrated resource planning (IRP) process is a policy vehicle used to increase renewable energy penetration within the grid. However, at distributed and small-scale level, the process of renewable energy uptake is heterogenous, complex, user-centric and relies on customer preferences, cost, the enabling municipal regulations and tariffs. This dynamic adoption makes planning for distributed energy systems very complex as energy planning tools are designed for centralised planning. To overcome this planning challenge, this paper adopts a three-step modelling process to estimate rooftop solar PV adoption for commercial buildings. This modelling process combines optimisation, market research and simulation modelling approaches using availability of commercial building rooftops, rooftop suitability properties and solar PV resource as constraints. With excellent solar PV resource potential in the country, and at high rooftop suitability levels of 80%, up to 12 GW of solar PV rooftops can be installed on commercial buildings. Therefore, commercial buildings can serve as strategic assets for decarbonisation and increasing the security of power supply.

Survival of COVID-19 Infection after Integrated Resource Planning Vaccination among Thai Patients on Hemodialysis: An Observational Cohort Study

Survival of COVID-19 Infection after Integrated Resource Planning Vaccination among Thai Patients on Hemodialysis: An Observational Cohort Study

Strategic justification of integrated resource planning tools in organizations

Strategic justification of integrated resource planning tools in organizations

A framework for integrated resource planning in surgical clinics

The problem under study is based on the challenges faced by the Orthopaedic Clinic at St. Olav’s Hospital in Trondheim, Norway. Variations in demand and supply cause fluctuating waiting lists, and it is challenging to level the activities between the clinic’s two units, the outpatient clinic and the operating theater, to obtain short waiting times for all activities. Based on these challenges, we describe and present a planning problem referred to as the Long-term Master Scheduling Problem (LMSP), where the objective is to construct an integrated Long-term Master Schedule (LMS) that facilitates short waiting times in both units. The LMS can be separated into two schedules, one cyclic high-level schedule, and one non-cyclic low-level schedule. The demand for outpatient clinic consultations and surgeries is stochastic, as are the waiting lists. To account for this, we propose a planning framework consisting of an optimization model to solve the LMSP, and a two-level planning procedure. In the planning procedure, we first solve the LMSP to construct the LMS for the upcoming planning horizon. Then, to adjust to the fluctuating waiting lists, we periodically refine the low-level schedule by solving a constrained LMSP. We also develop a simulation-based evaluation procedure to evaluate the planning framework in a real-life setting and use this to investigate different planning strategies. We find that imposing flexible, dynamic and agile planning strategies improve waiting time outcomes and patient throughput. Furthermore, combining the strategies yields additive improvements.

Analysing the prospects of grid-connected green hydrogen production in predominantly fossil-based countries – A case study of South Africa

Importing substantial amount of green hydrogen from countries like South Africa, which have abundant solar and wind potentials to replace fossil fuels, has attracted interest in developed regions. This study analyses South African strategies for improving and decarbonizing the power sector while also producing hydrogen for export. These strategies include the Integrated Resource Plan, the Transmission Development Plan, Just Energy Transition and Hydrogen Society Roadmap for grid connected hydrogen production in 2030. Results based on an hourly resolution optimisation in Plexos indicate that annual grid-connected hydrogen production of 500 kt can lead to a 20–25% increase in the cost of electricity in scenarios with lower renewable energy penetration due to South African emission constraints by 2030. While the price of electricity is still in acceptable range, and the price of hydrogen can be competitive on the international market (2–3 USD/kgH2 for production), the emission factor of this hydrogen is higher than the one of grey hydrogen, ranging from 13 to 24 kgCO2/kgh2. When attempting to reach emission factors based on EU directives, the three policy roadmaps become unfeasible and free capacity expansion results in significant sixteen-fold increase of wind and seven-fold increase in solar installations compared to 2023 levels by 2030 in South Africa.

THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF CARBON EMISSIONS ON POWER UTILITIES UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Power utilities, especially those that generate electricity by burning fossil fuels, produce significant amounts of carbon emissions. Mitigation of [Formula: see text]-equivalent ([Formula: see text]) emissions can be achieved by replacing power plants with renewable power installations and by adopting carbon-sequestration technologies. Physical upgrades are expensive, but carbon taxes, or the purchase of certificates and allowances on a voluntary carbon market, can be costly, too. Carbon costs may increasingly become a threatening liability for power utilities, eating into profits and undermining the financial viability of emission-intensive electricity generation. Thus, we consider an asset-and-liability, structural firm model to investigate the creditworthiness of a generic power utility. The utility’s assets dynamics are driven by the financial returns generated from the sold electricity for a set tariff which is modeled by a simple stochastic process. The liabilities not only depend on fuel, running, and depreciation costs, but also on the costs of [Formula: see text] emissions. As a case study, we consider Eskom, the South African power utility. We show the evolution of Eskom’s default probability under various fuel mix plans and technologies (as per SA’s Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) 2019), and under the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) carbon price scenarios. The obtained results and insights present a trying path ahead, especially for carbon-intensive power utilities.

Price responsiveness of solar and wind capacity demands

Accurate estimates of the price responsiveness of residential, commercial, and industrial electricity demands are essential for energy policy modelling, integrated resource planning, and determining a competitive wholesale electricity market's generation levels, prices, and capacity investments. Hence, we estimate the own-price elasticities of solar and wind capacity demands of a load serving entity (LSE) that provides retail electricity service, thereby answering two interrelated research questions: (1) does solar capacity demand far exceed wind capacity demand? and (2) are solar and wind capacity demands price-elastic? Inspired by the theory of input demand under input price uncertainty, our innovative methodology integrates (a) wholesale spot energy price forecasts by time of day; (b) pseudo data found by minimizing a LSE's annual risk-adjusted budget for procuring solar and wind capacities; and (c) econometric analysis of (b) to estimate the extent of substitutability between solar and wind capacities and the own-price elasticities of solar and wind capacity demands. Using Texas as an illustrative example, we find that when solar and wind power purchase agreements have similar energy prices, solar capacity demand is approximately four times wind capacity demand. Further, the own-price elasticity estimates are −5.34 for solar capacity demand and −5.65 for wind capacity demand. As a result, solar and wind capacity demands tend to substantially grow (shrink) in response to declining (rising) solar and wind energy prices. This lends support to proposals to raise solar and wind energy prices for mitigating the adverse effects of large-scale variable renewable energy development on an electric grid's efficient operation and system reliability. However, adopting such proposals also slows the grid's pace of decarbonization, thus underscoring the policy and regulatory challenges in the quest for a clean and sustainable electricity future. Hence, our policy recommendation of price managing solar and wind capacity demands is a topic of policy debate that deserves the attention of an electric grid's stakeholders.

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

Toward revolutionizing water-energy-food nexus composite index model: from availability, accessibility, and governance

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a critical research interest to support integrated resource planning, management, and security. For this reason, many tools have been developed recently to evaluate the WEF nexus security and monitor progress toward the WEF-related sustainable development goals. Among these, calculating the WEF composite index model is critical since it can provide a quantitative approach to demonstrate the WEF nexus security status. However, the current WEF nexus index model framework needs to include the incorporation of governance indicators, neglecting the importance of governance in the WEF nexus framework. Thus, this article develops a new WEF nexus composite index model that incorporates governance indicators in each subpillar. The principal component analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the variables’ collinearity and the model’s dimensionality. A quasi-Monte Carlo-based uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are applied to the index model to assess its effectiveness. Finally, the new WEF index model is applied to the 16 South African Development Community (SADC) countries as a case study. A critical synergy effect within the WEF nexus framework is identified that nations with better WEF governance ability tend to perform better in improving the WEF accessibility capability, suggesting the importance of governance in the WEF nexus security framework.

A Promising Path toward a Net-Zero Clean Energy Future in Africa and Southeast Asia

This paper explores strategies for a rapid transition to net-zero energy in Africa and Southeast Asia through renewable energy sources. The study analyzes the current energy landscape and challenges faced by these regions, focusing on opportunities for economic development based on renewable energy generation, specifically solar PV and wind energy. The results show that an increase in renewable energy generation in Southeast Asia resulted in a comparable rise in renewable energy supply, electricity generation, and overall energy supply between 2021 and 2022. In Africa, an increase in renewable energy generation from 201-210 TWh demanded an increase in renewable energy supply, electricity generation, and overall energy supply between 2021 and 2022. Southeast Asia exceeded Africa in terms of solar PV generation in both years, with a share of 38-45 TWh, while Africa achieved a lesser proportion of 14-16 TWh in solar PV generation in the historical scenario. The same incremental trend was observed in both the stated policy scenario and the announced pledged scenario for both Africa and Southeast Asia in 2030 and 2050. According to the analysis, Africa produced a higher fraction of total wind energy production at 23–25 TWh, compared to Southeast Asia, which reported 9–14 TWh under the historical scenario between 2021 and 2022. However, according to the announced pledged scenario, Southeast Asia is predicted to outperform Africa in wind energy output between 2030 and 2050. However, by 2050, Southeast Asia is forecast to vastly outperform Africa in terms of wind energy output, with a staggering record of 1207 TWh compared to Africa's estimated 593 TWh. The authors propose five potential solutions to the challenges of renewable energy supply in Africa and Southeast Asia, based on the International Energy Agency's forecast between 2030 and 2050. These include exploring solar energy advancements, floating turbines, wave energy converters, ocean thermal energy conversion systems, energy storage and thermal energy solutions, and IoT integration for energy efficiency enhancement. The authors emphasize the need for long-term solutions and suggest policy implications for sustainable scenarios that encourage environmentally sound behaviors, drive economic growth, and promote social development. These scenarios include integrated resource planning, market liberalization, government incentives, and capacity-building.

Comprehensive Energy Analysis of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Integration with the Power Grid: A Systemic Approach Incorporating Integrated Resource Planning Methodology

This work aims at a comprehensive assessment of the impact of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology on both demand and supply sides, considering integrated resource planning for sustainable energy. By using a computational tool and evaluating the complete potentials, we divide the analysis into four dimensions: environmental, social, technical, economic, and political. Each dimension is further subdivided, allowing for a detailed characterization of the impacts across these various aspects. Our approach employs a simple yet effective algebraic method using matrices to evaluate all the elements involved in the V2G system. This case study focuses on the environmental and technical–economic aspects of integrating V2G technology into a city with industrial parameters. Our findings reveal improvements and future challenges to all four dimensions, including direct and indirect reductions in CO2 emissions. However, the limited availability of specific data in the social and political scopes highlight the need for further research in these areas. This study lays the groundwork for future investigations to explore the social and political implications of V2G technology, offering significant potential for future studies.

Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Review and Assessment for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System

The Alaska Railbelt transmission system runs from Fairbanks to Anchorage to Homer and supplies 75% of the state’s population with power. In the near future, this system will experience significant increases in load due to electrification of the transportation and heating sectors. To account for this, several state organizations are working towards the creation of an integrated resource plan and reliability standards.This work encompasses the efforts of researching the operations, cost, and locations of desirable hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources in the areas surrounding the Railbelt transmission system. The aspects of conventional hydropower and PSH as well as adjustable-speed and ternary PSH were analyzed. With Alaska’s diverse and rugged landscape, QGIS was utilized to delineate the positions of energy resources within a reasonable distance from the Railbelt. By incorporating Digital Terrain Models and the QGIS processing toolbox, a least cost path analysis was completed to filter out resources within the designated distance of the Railbelt. Applying existing cost models to the data in this work helped to decide the energy resources that would be studied further. The future of this project includes modeling the selected energy sources in the PSS/e Railbelt model to examine their effects on the reliability and stability.

Sowing the seeds of change: Policy feedback and ratcheting up in South African energy policy

More ambitious and stringent policy intervention is required to accelerate the transition to renewable energy technologies. The ratcheting-up of policy ambition hinges on the political feasibility of policy change. Positive policy feedback can, in theory, enhance the political feasibility of ratcheting-up by creating pro-change constituencies and policy learning. To analyze the empirical mechanisms through which policy feedback operates, in this study, we analyze two energy policy instruments in South Africa. We examine how the Renewable Energy Independent Power Procurement Program (REIPPP), a renewable energy auction program for niche support, affected the re-design of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), a central energy planning instrument. We use a qualitative case study approach, drawing on a large dataset of policy documents, public consultation responses and expert interviews. We show that REIPPP, through mechanisms of largely positive interpretive and resource feedback, has increased the political feasibility of more ambitious, pro-renewable energy planning in IRP. Our case thus demonstrates positive political feedback from the market creation to the central planning policy instrument. The findings suggest that the temporal sequencing of (re-designing) policy instruments can, under certain conditions, enable dynamic ratcheting up of energy policy mixes and thus sow the seeds for major policy change.

The water, land, and carbon intensity of electricity production: The case of South Africa

Electricity production has a significant impact on the Water-Energy-Food nexus sectors as it requires substantial amounts of water and land, whilst also being a primary polluter of these resources. In addition, electricity production is a key contributor to global carbon emissions. With electricity production predicted to increase by over 50% by 2050, the impact of electricity production on water and land resources, as well as on carbon emissions, will need to be significantly reduced. This is particularly important in countries facing water, energy, and food scarcity and insecurity, such as South Africa. This paper therefore investigates the impact of electricity production on the Water-Energy-Food nexus sectors and on carbon emissions in South Africa. To do this, we conduct a lifecycle assessment of the water and land required for electricity production, as well as its carbon emissions in South Africa, by electricity source, and under key scenarios. The results from the Integrated Resource Plan 2030 scenario show that despite a 34% increase in electricity production targeted from 2018 to 2030 in South Africa, the water and land requirements, and the carbon emissions of electricity production would decrease by 29%, 9%, and 5.5%, respectively. Compared to the Business-as-Usual 2030 scenario, it was shown that the water and land requirements and carbon emissions of electricity production would be 55.5%, 42.6%, and 41.5% lower in the Integrated Resource Plan 2030 scenario, respectively. Overall, the results show that to reduce the impact of electricity production on the Water-Energy-Food nexus sectors and on carbon emissions, switching away from fossil fuels (particularly coal), and promoting the use of non-hydro and non-biomass renewables is required.

The state and progress of the gas to power programme in South Africa

Background: The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is a plan that strives to ensure energy security and directs the goals of South Africa’s energy governance. The IRP recognises G2P as an alternative energy source that has the potential to motivate and promote sustainable energy and clean energy, diversify the energy mix and minimise the amount of carbon footprint left behind.Aim: The focus of this research is to describe current developments in South Africa towards implementing the G2P.Setting: The research presented in this article investigates a national policy programme in the energy sector in South Africa.Methods: This research is based on a secondary qualitative approach. Unobtrusive research techniques are used to analyse secondary data and authoritative literature sources.Results: The findings of this article indicate that there are a few problems that are preventing South Africa from having a successful implementation of the G2P. Among them are the monopoly that exists in the energy industry and the lack of clarity on the path that the present policy direction on G2P would take.Conclusion: The government has made significant headway in the implementation of the G2P by implementing a policy framework, developing institutional structures and delegating roles and duties to various key actors.Contribution: This research seeks to update information on the progress and developments towards the implementation of the gas to power programme in South Africa. This will help stimulate debate and further research on areas that researchers and policymakers still need to consider within this research area.

Social impacts of energy resource planning: assessment methodology and case study

ABSTRACT This paper presents an Accounting and Valuation (AV) method within the scope of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) to analyze social impacts when implementing new energy resources. The method is based on a critical analysis from existing assessments regarding the IRP and its design is based on algorithms that convert qualitative information of social attributes into absolute values. These values feed the subsequent stages of the IRP to select the best energy resource (among available options) to be implemented. The method has been applied and tested as a pilot case in a rural region in Peru. This work provides extremely valuable information for decision-makers to assess, with real and quantitative data, investment decisions regarding energy planning.

Analysis of Strategic Factors for Successful Integrated System Implementation: Experiences from the Co-operative University of Kenya

An integrated resource planning (ERP) system is essential for automation of manual routine tedious organizational processes. It is meant to improve efficiency and effectiveness at work. However, implementation of such systems, if not properly organized and appropriate strategies put in place to ensure its success, may take unnecessarily longer time than anticipated, or the whole system abandoned all together. This study sought to establish the most effective strategies that ensure successful and timely integrated system implementation. Systems theory and Process theory approaches were used to anchor the study. Case study was adopted as the research design. The population of the study comprised twelve (12) departments within Co-operative University of Kenya where different system modules were rolled out for implementation. Primary data was collected using semi-structured questionnaires. Since data collected was largely categorical in nature, Chi-square was used to analyze relationship between variables. It was established that personal interest and optimism is the most influential strategy in determining success and pace in integrated system implementation. The key recommendation that the study offers as insight to policy makers, body of theory and practitioners is the need to deliberately concentrate on strategies that induce personal interest and optimism among employees so as to ensure success during implementation of a new system or change.

Optimal configuration planning of vehicle sharing station-based electro-hydrogen micro-energy systems for transportation decarbonization

With the popularization of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles, establishing an eco-friendly and economic-affordable fuel supply system turns out to be critical for the decarbonization of transportation sector. To achieve this, this paper proposes a systematic methodological framework to facilitate optimal configuration planning of an electric-hydrogen micro-energy system with vehicle sharing stations (EHVS). The proposed approach is based on the notion of integrated resource planning, which combines supply side with demand side simultaneously. The problem is formulated as a two-stage hybrid stochastic-interval programming, where the first-stage is aimed at minimizing the investment cost by determining the optimal configuration planning, while the second-stage is aimed at maximizing the expected benefits through optimal operation simulation of the system. The potential flexibility of vehicular demands in response to the rental price-setting has been explicitly considered in this work and represented using an evolutionary game model. Through this, the substitutability between different vehicle demands and its impact on the long-term planning of electric-hydrogen integrated energy system can be properly captured. A hybrid interval-stochastic method is presented to handle different types of uncertainties involved in the discussed problem, wherein the scenario analysis, the interval order relation and the fuzzy preference methods are jointly utilized. The resultant problem is solved with a genetic-algorithm based framework, and implemented in the MATLAB environment. The simulation results show that, compared with conventional independent planning, there could be an improvement in the carbon emission reduction by 24.74% and an additional cost saving of 11.97% achievable using the proposed approach.

Integrated Resource Planning

This chapter introduces integrated resource planning, a systems approach to utility planning that originated in the United States electricity industry in the 1970s. The approach helped utility planners move beyond the delivery of supply infrastructure alone and towards planning for more complex socio-technical systems in which demand could be managed. It did this by asking how to provide utility “services”, such as energy to a growing city, not just by building more power stations (“hard path” supply-options) but also through considering increased “end-use” efficiency and more localised generation such as rooftop solar power (“soft path” demand-side options). The chapter first provides a brief history of integrated resource planning, which developed in parallel to systems thinking, and whilst not specifically using systems terminology applies many of the key tenets, making it inherently a systems approach. The chapter then details the principles of integrated resource planning, outlines the approach and how it applies systems thinking. Two illustrative case studies from the Australian water and waste sectors are then discussed before considerations on future directions. These including its potential use in planning combined utility services with multiple and often competing objectives and for emerging services such as separate organic waste management.

TRAINING IN ECONOMICS FOR ACQUIRING AND DEVELOPING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE COMPETENCES AT HIGHER SCHOOLS

The research focuses on some relevant aspects of training at higher schools for building digital competences which facilitate the effective application of modern digital tools for solving planned tasks and achieving objectives. The emphasis falls on the necessary competences for working with integrated resource planning systems (ERP). Special attention is paid to the acquisition and development of the so-called Business Intelligence (BI) competences at higher schools. At the beginning of the research, we have synthesized the necessary activities for quality training as the final objective is that the learners acquire a totality of knowledge, skills and experience for working and managing some heterogeneous in their nature processes, as well as some means and technologies required for the transformation of data into managerial information, whereas the data itself – into managerial decisions and action plans. The next stage consists of differentiation among the various types of skills – business skills, analytic skills and IT skills, as well as the specific aspects of their acquisition and development through the training at higher schools. The conclusion makes an assessment of the trends, respectively, the topics of training on specific tools for the solution of managerial tasks and the successful realization of strategic aims. We take into account the training in performing business analyses through dashboards and the work with key productivity indicators (KPI). Parallel to this, we have researched the degree of coverage of this matter in existing curricula and courses at higher schools in Central and Eastern Europe using the method of random sampling without replacement. The logic of carrying out the research corresponds to the principle that the training shall comply with the needs and requirements of the practice. The basis for determining the research sample is based on the subject matter of the research. We have encompassed enterprises of the private sector in countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The sample is limited to small, medium and large enterprises which actively use digital tools in making managerial decisions (respectively 16% / 65% / 19%) from the Czech Republic, Romania, Greece and Bulgaria using the method of random sampling without replacement. The methodology of the research secures its reliability by addressing the survey to a specific category of individuals, including the opinions of managers and employees on the digital competences of future specialists with a degree in Economics. The results are used to make a narrow selection of those areas in the content of specific courses which shall be updated and to point out those curricula which shall be updated in the medium term.