Integrated National Energy Research Articles

A Stochastic Approach to the Power Requirements of the Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: The Case of Spain

Battery electric vehicles represent a technological pathway for reducing carbon emissions in personal road transport. However, for the widespread adoption of this type of vehicle, the user experience should be similar to that of combustion engine vehicles. To achieve this objective, a robust and reliable public charging infrastructure is essential. In Spain, the electric recharging infrastructure is growing quickly in metropolitan areas but much more slowly on roads and highways. The upcoming charging stations must be located along high-volume traffic corridors and in proximity to the Trans-European Transport Network. The main contribution of this research is to offer a method for examining the essential electricity infrastructure investments required in scenarios involving substantial electric vehicle adoption. The methodology includes a sensitivity analysis of fleet composition and market share, recharging user behavior, charging station density, and vehicle efficiency improvements. To this end, the authors have developed a simplified probabilistic model, addressing the effect of the involved parameters through a comprehensive scenario analysis. The results show that the actual number of high-capacity charging plugs on Spanish roads is significantly lower than the European regulation requirements for the year 2030 considering an electric vehicle market share according to the Spanish Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030 objectives and it is far from the necessary infrastructure to cover the expected demand according to the traffic flow. Under these circumstances, the charging peak power demand reaches over 7.4% of the current Spanish total power demand for an electric vehicle fleet, which corresponds to only 12% of the total.

Environmental and Economic Assessment of the Italian Energy Transition Scenarios

The aim of this work is to assess the environmental and economic impact of the Energy Transition of the Italian Electrical Sector, as planned by the PNIEC (Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan), published in December 2019, and by the scenarios, developed by Terna and Snam, updated to reach the Fit-for-55 objectives. The analysis of the historical trends related to RES (Renewable Energy Sources) capacity increase, allows comparing the historical effort with the one expected to reach the 2030 goals. In particular wind off-shore production is expected to have a larger impact than envisaged before. On the technical side, some scenarios assumptions are going to be revised to more realistic values. The technological and economic efforts, besides an estimation of the expected global environmental benefit, are assessed taking into account: i) the revised RES capacity increase, ii) the grid infrastructure enhancement, and iii) the envisaged installation of new storage and electrolyzer capacity. With flexibility items, ii) and iii), requiring a similar level of capital cost as the new RES capacity. The reduction in natural gas consumption in the different scenarios is expected to reduce both the Green House Gas emissions and the operating cost with a large impact on the average efficiency of the natural gas-fed power plants.

Introduction of the carbon tax in Italy: Is there room for a quadruple-dividend effect?

This study seeks to examine the environmental and societal impacts of a carbon tax in Italy, where the policy has yet to be implemented but has been the subject of much debate. We use numerical simulations based on the EUROGREEN macro-system dynamic model (D’Alessandro et al., 2020) to evaluate the potential benefits and drawbacks of this policy from 2010 to 2050.We employ a sequential scenario approach, starting with a baseline that incorporates Italy’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), followed by the introduction of a gradually increasing carbon tax. Additionally, we test two hypotheses regarding the possible adaptive behaviors of consumers and producers in response to the policy. Our analysis evaluates the long-term impacts of the carbon tax on GDP, unemployment, public debt, carbon emissions, and income inequality, in pursuit of a ”quadruple-dividend” effect.Our findings suggest that the carbon tax: (i) has a limited impact on reducing carbon emissions, with a difference of only 2% compared to the PNIEC by 2050, (ii) has the potential to mitigate regressive effects through the redistribution of its revenue to low-income households, resulting in an improvement of approximately 2 Gini-points compared to the PNIEC, and (iii) can achieve a quadruple-dividend effect only if consumers and industries adapt their behavior to the policy.Our research argues that Italy could reap the benefits of a carbon tax, with the revenue being redistributed to low-income households, leading to a more equitable and sustainable energy transition. This can only be achieved by combining top-down policies with bottom-up initiatives and public interventions, making environmental taxation more acceptable to the general public.

Implementation by Romania of the Energy Governance based on the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan

Abstract The current paper completes the empirical literature on the European Union (EU) climate and energy policy design and evaluation, namely the implementation part related to the development, assessment and approval of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the Member States (MS) for the period 2021-2030. These strategic documents are foreseen by the Governance Regulation no. EU 2018/1999 as the main tools used to implement the climate and energy policies and targets by 2030. This paper is organized as follows: the abstract gives an overview of the paper and its main conclusions. Section 1 depict the introduction and background about the whole process around NECPs and the main provisions related under the Governance Regulation. Section 2 reviews literature from the perspective of the EU negotiations on 2030&2050 energy and climate targets, legal aspects of climate and energy governance and the process of NECPs development and approval. It also includes a short presentation of the data used for the analysis, including their sources. Section 3 gives an insight about the approval of Romania‘s NECPs by the European Commission. At the same time, this section briefly comments on proposals made by the national authorities and the recommendations using as starting point Romania‘s position in 2014 during the 2030 climate and energy negotiations while taking into account the dynamic of the geopolitical situation to date. Section 4 concludes.

Modeli korišćenja električne energije kupaca-proizvođača

In light of the sharp and significant increase of the electricity price on the global market in 2021, the concept of electricity production for the own needs gained importance. This work will analyze the possibilities of reducing electricity costs for end customers who become prosumers. It will also present ways of managing prosumers consumption in order to more rationally use produced electricity and improve energy efficiency. In addition, the impact of prosumers on total electricity generation from renewable sources in the Republic of Serbia will be discussed. To that end, special attention shall be on different models of assessment of total electricity produced in prosumers facilities, in accordance with the Law on the Use of Renewable Energy Sources. At the end, the results of the analyses will be presented, as well as possibilities for future development of the prosumers concept, in order to achieve the goals in faster and more successful manner, in accordance with the commitments made in international agreements, which will be implemented in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. In addition, when conducting research, special focus shall be on international practice in this area.

Environmental life cycle assessment based on the retrofitting of a twentieth-century heritage building in Spain, with electricity decarbonization scenarios

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to estimate the environmental impacts associated with modernization measures that improve the energy efficiency of an office building listed as of cultural interest and located in northern Spain, a region with an Atlantic climate. European Climate Action for 2020-2030 sets a long-term goal of achieving neutrality of greenhouse gas emissions and towards the end of 2019 the Spanish Government presented its Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. It is of interest to the international audience to know how energy policies can affect decisions on building retrofitting to improve sustainability: reduction in energy consumption, climate change and other environmental impacts. A life cycle assessment was carried out for the retrofitting of the building envelope and different energy supply scenarios: only electricity from the electricity mix (scenario of reference that of 2018, and decarbonisation scenarios proposed for 2020 and 2030), and the installation of heat pump and photovoltaic panels. The impacts will decrease 40% for Global Warming Potential and 15% for Cumulative Energy Demand in 2030 with respect to the reference scenario. These reductions will further increase up to 54 and 61%, respectively, if photovoltaic panels and a heat pump are implemented.

Multisektorski pristup u tranziciji prema niskougljičnom razvoju i ciljevima Zelenog akcionog plana EU – iskustva Republike Hrvatske

The paper will describe a multisectoral approach in development of long-term planning documents based on the example of developing background papers for low-carbon development strategy in the Republic of Croatia until 2030, with a view to the year 2050. As part of its obligations under the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action (EU 2018/1999), the Republic of Croatia is obliged to develop an Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan and a Long-Term Decarbonisation Strategy. New strategic goals of the Green Plan for Europe, intended to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and raise global competitiveness of the European economy, set an ambitious goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Fulfilling that vision requires a multidisciplinary approach as it does not suffice to reduce emissions from energy, industry, general consumption and transport, but it is necessary to increase removals in agricultural and LULUCF sectors. The paper will describe the development process, the engagement of numerous stakeholders, the methodological approach and the main outcomes. The analyses include detailed modelling in energetics, by economic sectors and natural carbon storage of the LULUCF sector. There are comments on synergistic energy challenges and on maintaining a secure food supply, as well as on sustainable forest management, achieving clean air, use of space and more.

Višekriterijumski izbor optimalnog energetskog miksa u funkciji energetske tranzicije u vreme svetske energetske krize

Sustainable development is feasible through energy transition. The key elements of such transition are: the implementation of energy efficiency measures, the use of renewable resources, tackling climate change and environmental protection. It is known that the EU has established a legally binding framework for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement from 2015, as well as ambitious goals through the 2030 Agenda. Since Serbia signed Sofia Declaration from 2020, it will create new Energy Strategy and technical study based upon existing energy sources, to get to the aim of optimal energy mix. This will take into account the electricity system and energy security, as well as the economic and financial analysis of the proposed technical solutions of the optimal mix. In this paper, a multi-criteria analysis has been developed for the purpose of evaluating the results and selecting the scenarios on the basis of which the draft of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan will be prepared. The basis for this analysis should be the selection of the optimal energy mix that will be continuously monitored with special reference to the period of energy crises, when there are major disruptions in prices and availability on the world energy market.

The Effect of Electric Vehicle Deployment on Renewable Electricity Generation in an Isolated Grid System: The Case Study of Cyprus

Decarbonisation of national economies to mitigate climate change requires transformation of the entire energy system. Investments in renewable energy technologies in the electricity supply system are increasing, but substantial effort is called for in other sectors, such as transport. While European Union member states have submitted their integrated National Energy and Climate Plans, this paper focuses on partial electrification of the transport sector as a measure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the isolated grid system of Cyprus in a cost-effective manner. The present work assesses the impact of electric vehicle deployment on the share of renewable electricity generation, electricity costs and carbon dioxide emissions. Quantification of these aspects is provided with an outlook until 2035. A cost-optimisation model (OSeMOSYS) is used that takes into account the electricity supply, road transport, and heating and cooling sectors. Smart charging option is also evaluated as a possibility.

Life Cycle Assessment of Italian Electricity Scenarios to 2030

The study presents a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Italian electricity scenarios, devised in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP). A fully representative LCA of the national electricity system was carried out, taking into consideration a great number of different power plant typologies for current (2016 and 2017) and future (2030) electricity mixes. The study confirms that LCA can be a powerful tool for supporting energy planning and strategies assessment. Indeed the results put in evidence not only the improvement of the environmental profile from the current to the future mix (the impacts decrease from 2016 to 2030 due to the transition towards renewables, mainly wind and photovoltaic), but also underline the difference between two scenarios at 2030 (being the scenario that includes the strategic objectives of the INECP to 2030 the one showing best environmental profile), providing an evaluation of the effect of different energy policies. For example, in the INECP scenario CO2 eq/kWh is 46% lower than current scenario and 37% lower than business as usual scenario for 2030. Moreover, considering different impact categories allowed to identify potential environmental trade-offs. The results suggest also the need of future insight on data related to photovoltaic technologies and materials and their future development.

Meta-review of Belgium's integrated National Energy and Climate draft Plan 2021-2030

The EU energy & climate policy requests from all Member States to submit a National Energy & Climate Plan (NECP) over the year 2019, to reach the aggregate goals of energy efficiency, renewable energy supplies and greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2030. The complicated Belgian context is briefly described. Then the many comments on Belgium’s draft NECP are summarized and annotated. Commentators are the European Commission, various statutory advisory councils on energy and climate policies, NGOs, consultants, etc. The draft plan requires significant improvement for meeting the formal standards imposed by the EU framework. More problematic however are the doubts about the actual capability of Belgium to realize the paper & ink commitments. Delving into the draft NECP and the abundant comments created a growing insight that the bureaucratic NECP approach of the European Commission is obsolete and dysfunctional. For addressing the energy & climate challenges, urgent & drastic, i.e. disruptive transformation is requested. Hence, disruptive thinking, novel frameworks and approaches should prevail.

The UK National Energy and Climate Plan

The UK’s draft Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan has been heavily criticised by its independent panel set up to advise on climate change, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC). The CCC found that the UK was not prepared for the likely temperature increases, that policies were not sufficient to meet the targets for the period up to 2032 and that policies for sectors other than electricity needed to be strengthened. The European Commission had some criticisms but in view of the UK’s plans to leave the European Union, they are likely to have little impact.

Assessment of the drafted German integrated National Energy and Climate Plan

Germany is struggling to meet its 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate goals. Against this background, we analyze the current draft National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) that sets out how Germany aims to achieve its national and European climate goals by 2030. We introduce the current stage of the country’s climate policy and, by looking at the different emission reduction measures under discussion, examine why Germany will probably miss its CO2 emissions reduction goals. We conclude that, based on the climate package announced in September 2019, Germany will get closer to the achievement of its 2030 targets than was anticipated in the NECP draft; nevertheless, the new climate package leaves a significant gap between the new measures and the 2030 climate goals.

Review of the Polish integrated National Energy and Climate draft Plan 2021-2030

The purpose of this paper is to review the main content of the draft version of the National Energy and Climate Plan for the years 2021-2030 of Poland. The main objectives, targets, policies and measures are described. Tools planned to be used to achieve the goals are presented. Ambitiousness of the plan, probability of achieving the objectives and difficulties that may be encountered in implementing the envisaged policies are discussed. The transformation of the Polish power sector, which has the biggest share in GHG emissions from all ETS sectors, has already begun. It is expected that the share of coal in the electricity generation mix will drop from the current ca. 77% to 60% in 2030. The biggest challenge in the non-ETS sector will be to achieve emission reduction targets in the transport sector. Emissions from transport are rising and are expected to continue to rise as a result of economic development and increasing passenger and freight transport.

Revamping doctoral training for a decarbonised future

Revamping doctoral training for a decarbonised future

The future design of renewable electricity auctions in Spain. A comment

In its recently published draft on an Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC in its Spanish acronym), the Spanish government outlines the main elements of the design of RES-E auctions for the 2021-2030 period. The aim of this paper is to compare the design of the future auctions with past auctions in Spain (organized in 2016 and 2017) and with the international experiences, and to assess their advantages and drawbacks. In addition to eff ectiveness and minimization of support costs (which were also goals in the previous auctions), promotion of actor diversity and flexibility of dispatch are explicitly mentioned as government goals. It is found out that the main design choices of the future auctions, as envisaged in the PNIEC, entail a rupture with the auctions which were organized in the past in Spain. In general, they will be less complex and more aligned with the international experiences than the previous auctions. In particular, organizing auctions within a medium and long-term energy planning strategy and a multiannual schedule of auctions, auctioning and remunerating generation and not capacity and explicitly promoting technological and actor diversity imply a key departure with respect to previous auctions and are deemed appropriate choices. However, many details on the design elements are still unknown, as they will be provided in future pieces of legislation.

Integrated energy planning for transportation sector—A case study for Iran with techno-economic approach

Transportation sectors in developing countries suffer from some diseases that one of them is ever-increasing energy consumption. Integrated National Energy Planning (INEP) in transportation sector is a solution for these countries to alter their suboptimal pattern and rationalize their energy consumption. One of the INEP targets is determining optimal patterns of fuels and transportation technologies to satisfy future demand of freight and passenger transportation at the lowest cost levels. Following the above target, this paper is concerned with the optimal consumption pattern of fuels focusing on vehicle technologies within the next 25 years (up to 2029). Using Energy Flow Optimization Model-ENVironment (EFOM-ENV) model, various steps as designing of “Reference Energy System (RES)” of the model, data processing and scenario analysis are followed. Based on the modeling results, substitution of urban railroad technologies (subway, LRT and monorail), all of passenger CNG technologies (cars, buses and minibuses), rural railroad freight technologies (electrical, gas oil and LNG freight trains) and finally, CNG and LNG heavy and light trucks with current passenger and freight vehicle technologies are suggested. This scenario will decline fuel consumption by about 14% totally, that the most part of it belongs to gasoline and gas oil (24% and 17%, respectively). Total discounted cost of transportation system will decline from 806.20 to 691.74 billion dollars (14%) during the time horizon.

Integrated National Energy Planning: A Case Study of the Republic of Korea

Like other oil-importing countries, the Republic of Korea was surprised by the rapid oil price escalation of the 1970s. Following the lead of the United States, Europe, and Japan, Korea's energy policy in the mid-1970s was based on reducing oil imports by substituting other fuels, installing more efficient oil conversion processes, or doing without. Due in part to the urgency of the situation and in part to a lack of accumulated analytical capability, it was difficult to analyze in depth which alternatives were best, how much they would cost, or to what extent it was in Korea's best interests to bear large economic costs to reduce oil imports. Rather, Korean policymakers implemented a broad-based oil consumption reduction program to mitigate their immediate oil import problem.

Practical Application of Integrated National Energy Planning (INEP) Using Microcomputers

This paper describes the use of a practical microcomputer‐based, hierarchical modelling framework for Integrated National Energy Planning (INEP), and policy analysis. The rationale for the concept and the development of the methodology are traced, following the energy crises of the 1970s. Details of the INEP process, which includes analysis at three hierarchical levels (the energy‐macroeconomic, energy sector and energy subsector) are given. A description of the various models, and the scenarios and assumptions used in the analysis, as well as the linkages and interactions, is provided. The Sri Lanka energy situation is summarized, and the principal energy issues and options derived from the modelling are used to synthesize a national energy strategy.

An Integrated National Energy Research and Development Program

The basic problem in the energy crisis is to balance energy supply and demand in such a way that various economic, international, environmental, and societal factors are taken into consideration even though there are conflicts among them. The structure and aims of scientific R&D programs should reflect the goals and objectives of stated policy, yet have the flexibility to accommodate evolutionary changes in policy. Project Independence is expected to bring the federal government to embark on a serious attempt to balance supply and demand, such that reliance on imports can be reduced. The view is presented that the goals of the federal programs must be to restrain the growth of energy demand and expand domestic energy supply subject to the usual constraints of economic health, environmental care, and societal acceptance and must be accomplished in a way that will foster improved international relations. Prospects for all energy sources are discussed. (MCW)