Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Research Articles

Scoping an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for the southern Benguela: fisheries still biggest risk

Abstract The southern Benguela ecosystem faces complex pressures from anthropogenic activities and climate change, leading to structural and functional changes. To counter ecosystem service losses, intergovernmental marine science organizations propose integrated management. However, predictions to evaluate alternative strategies are challenging due to multifaceted sector interactions affecting ecological components. Scoping phases of Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA), such as the Options for Delivering Ecosystem-Based Marine Management (ODEMM), identify priority sectors and pressures for management using linkage chains and impact risk scores. This study expands a South African-wide ODEMM assessment to investigate dependent sectors in the southern Benguela. Fishing emerged as the primary sector, exhibiting high connectance and impact risk on ecological components. Disaggregation of the fishing sector into sub-sectors and over three 21-year time periods revealed the demersal trawl and mixed species inshore trawl sectors to still have the greatest impact despite recent mitigation efforts, driven by species extraction, bycatch, and ‘incidental loss’. Research gaps, such as the effects of recreational fisheries and underwater noise, were identified and need to be addressed to improve future ecosystem assessments. Additionally, the effects of climate on long-term, ecosystem-scale variability and change need more attention in IEAs and should be incorporated into frameworks such as ODEMM.

Under pressure: an integrated assessment of human activities and their potential impact on the ecosystem components of the Southern Brazilian continental shelf

Economic activities in the South Brazilian Shelf (SBS) are concentrated on the coast, causing several impacts. To balance biodiversity and habitat conservation in coastal and marine areas with human activities relevant to society, it is important to identify and understand those sectors and pressures. We conducted an analysis to assess ecosystem risks from multiple drivers and pressures in the continental shelf that extends from the Southernmost point of Brazil (Chuí) to Cabo Frio cape, in Rio de Janeiro State. We used the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) methodology, a framework for implementing ecosystem-based management grounded on five steps: scoping, indicator development, ecosystem assessment, risk analysis, and management strategy evaluation. This work presents the scoping step consisting of a semi-quantitative assessment identifying sector–pressure–ecological component pressure pathways. Subsequently, these pathways were scored using expert judgment supported by literature and data, regarding their level of overlap with each ecosystem component, frequency of occurrence, and degree of impact, enabling estimation of the magnitude of impact risk arising from each one of the sectors and pressures. The assessment involved 20 experts from multiple disciplines and backgrounds. To validate the results, we conducted a thorough literature review and engaged in further discussions with relevant stakeholders. As a result, 16 sectors and 19 pressures were identified as impacting 18 ecological components. Fishing, land-based industry, tourism and recreation, wastewater, and coastal infrastructure represented the main economic sectors impacting the area. The major associated pressures were the incidental catch of species, the introduction of contaminants and organic matter into the water, and the generation of waste. The most affected ecosystem components were, in turn, those located on or close to the coast, such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and rocky reefs while the preeminent impacted taxonomic groups were elasmobranchs, seabirds, reptiles, mammals, and bony fish. The literature review supported the expert assessment, and the stakeholders’ workshop endorsed our findings. Additionally, this assessment highlights the need to implement public policies that focus on reducing the impact of the most influential sectors and pressures and the necessity of strengthening research and monitoring. Identifying these priorities for integrated coastal and marine management is crucial, and our research outcomes can be key in promoting regional ocean sustainability.

Groundtruthing cumulative impact assessments with biodiversity data: Testing indicators and methods for marine ecosystem condition assessments in South Africa

Abstract Accurate assessments of ecosystem condition are needed to inform management processes such as systematic conservation planning and protected area expansion, marine spatial planning and other effective area‐based conservation measures. Yet measuring the condition of dynamic and often largely inaccessible marine ecosystems is extremely difficult and presents a global challenge. Broad‐scale cumulative impact assessments have been used in South Africa as a proxy for marine ecosystem condition in national assessments and reporting because the data are more readily available, and knowledge exists on the impacts of various human activities (or pressures) on marine ecosystems. While useful for national reporting, assessments based on in situ ecological data are also needed at finer scales relevant to management. Applying the HELCOM BEAT approach, this study used in situ ecological data to identify potential methods and indicators that can be applied in South Africa to conduct integrated ecosystem assessments and to assess the suitability of current cumulative impact assessments as a proxy for condition. Aggregated fish indicators demonstrated greater sensitivity to varying human pressures compared with benthic community indicators, with responsiveness differing by location. Notably, site‐level differences in empirical condition emerged that broad‐scale cumulative assessments often missed. The study thus highlighted the varying suitability of cumulative impact scores as proxies for condition, indicating their reliability for fish communities. However, this is also dependent on the pressure types included, the biotic indicators used and the area of focus. Conservation decisions based solely on cumulative impact scores could misrepresent the actual condition of the environment, which makes it difficult to make management decisions, especially at finer scales. As such, conservation initiatives need to be regionally adapted to effectively address the unique pressures and conditions of each area and should be tailored to account for fine‐scale variability, instead of adopting a one‐size‐fits‐all approach.

Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of Pacific water distribution in the Sea of Okhotsk based on Lagrangian approach

The aim of this work is characteristic of spatio-temporal variability of Pacific water distribution in the Sea of Okhotsk based on Lagrangian approach and spatial analysis.Materials and methods. The study is based on geostrophic current data product from satellite altimetry. The dataset has resolution of 0,25° × 0,25° × 1 day. This data is used for calculation of approximately 100000 water parcels trajectories during 400 days back in time for every day from 31st of January 1997 to 17th of April 2022. For each date in this interval, those parcels which intersected the conditional Kuril transect were determined, as well as region and date of transect intersection. Those two parameters were used in cluster analysis with DBSCAN method in order to distinguish individual Pacific intrusions. Position, shape, and size of each intrusion were investigated.Results allowed to suggest two types of indexes describing distribution of Pacific-origin water in the Sea of Okhotsk. First, centroid of particles of Pacific origin with residence time between 1 and 6 months is calculated. Variability of centroid position showed northward displacement of Pacific waters in spring-summer and south[1]ward displacement in autumn-winter. Eastward displacement towards Kamchatka coast usually occurs during winters and opposite westward displacement is usual for summers. In 1998, 2003, 2010, 2013, 2017, and 2019 waters of Pacific origin had the most northern location. Second type of indexes is based on location and shape characteristics of Pacific water intrusions. The fractal dimensionality and convexity measure of intrusions are rapidly decreasing after the intrusion reaches its maximum area. Centroids of the most prominent intrusions follow the path along 152–154 °E. Both types of indices showed intensification of Pacific inflow since 2010.Practical value. The time-series of resulted indexes are suggested to be implemented in integrated ecosystem assessments of the eastern Sea of Okhotsk.

Expanding the scope and roles of social sciences and humanities to support integrated ecosystem assessments and ecosystem-based management

Abstract Understanding social-ecological systems (SESs) is an important part of ecosystem-based management (EBM). One of the main decision support frameworks to develop scientific advice for EBM is integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs). Human dimensions in SESs are primarily captured through indicators derived from three social sciences: economics, anthropology, and sociology. The breadth of social sciences and humanities (SSH) research is much greater than those three fields, but they are generally underused in natural science-based decision support processes such as IEAs. Greater contributions of SSHs can enhance IEAs through various direct (e.g. to develop indicators) and indirect ways (e.g. to establish and maintain ethical practices). We examine a wider range of SSH disciplines and conclude that scientific advice processes that inform EBM can benefit from broader integration of SSH theories and methods through themes of contextualizing, facilitating, communicating, evaluating, and anticipating. We see this an opportunity to both widen the vocabulary used to describe social scientists and those who work in humanities in IEAs, and apply the underlying worldviews used to conduct SSH research to fundamentally enhance the IEA process and to further progress in EBM.

Spatio-temporal species distribution models reveal dynamic indicators for ecosystem-based fisheries management

Abstract Many economic sectors rely on marine ecosystem services, and holistic management is necessary to evaluate trade-offs between sectors and facilitate sustainable use. Integrated ecosystem assessments (IEA) integrate system components so that managers can evaluate pathways to achieve desired goals. Indicators are a central element of IEAs and capture the status and trend of individual components and should be sensitive to changes in the system; however, most indicators are aggregated over space and time as annual values, potentially leading to incomplete or inaccurate inferences about system change. Here, we demonstrate the utility of spatially and temporally explicit ecological indicators by fitting multivariate spatio-temporal models to survey data from the northeast US Shelf Ecosystem, encompassing three distinct ecoregions: Georges Bank, Gulf of Maine, and mid-Atlantic Bight. We evaluate three case studies to explore how these models can help assess ecosystem performance relative to management objectives, such as to: (1) identify dominant modes of variation in zooplankton communities; (2) quantify components of system stability; and (3) assess the density-dependent condition of groundfish over time. Collectively, these three examples demonstrate multiple interesting processes, but particularly highlight the rapid zooplankton changes and associated changes in benthivore condition and stability in the Gulf of Maine. Attributing changes in ecosystem indicators to localized processes is difficult using conventional “regionally aggregated” indicators, so this example highlights the benefits of spatio-temporal methods for integrated ecosystem analysis in this and other regions.

What does integrated ecosystem assessment mean to policy-makers and scientists working in the Atlantic? Implications for ocean science diplomacy

An important goal of Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) is to be an inclusive, evidence-based process to engage stakeholders, in support of ecosystem-based management. IEA is resource intensive, requiring the engagement of personnel, experts from many disciplines, public and private institutions, and including issues of technology, infrastructure, capacity building, etc. Stakeholders such as policy-makers and scientists in influential decision-making roles often determine the level of investment when committing to an IEA. It is thus critical to understand how these specific stakeholders understand and perceive IEA, as well as their motivations for engagement. We interviewed government officials, science managers and scientists whose decisions are critical for mobilizing resources (time, expertise and funding) in support of ecosystem based management (and potentially IEA) in the Atlantic Ocean. The interviews aimed at documenting their perceptions of IEA, and their motivations to engage in the process. Our results show that most of these research and policy stakeholders are generally unaware of, or have misconceptions about IEA concepts. Those who expressed awareness of IEA considered IEA as unfit to address most policy and managerial goals. We propose that the IEA process could be improved by promoting inclusivity and applying ocean science diplomacy. We see that these two aspects (inclusivity and science diplomacy) can help research and policy stakeholders understand the true meaning of IEA through negotiating, and by strengthening and diversifying the involvement of international stakeholders. We advocate that the scoping phase of an IEA is of critical importance and should be core to the whole process. It is during the scoping phase that stakeholders are identified and engaged. With their involvement, there is a need to make their interests visible and respected. During the scoping phase, a safe and open space needs to be secured, so these interests can be negotiated and mutual understanding on concepts, roles in the process and the possible outcomes are achieved. This article is part of the Mission Atlantic Project (Horizon 2020) which is designed to conduct IEAs in the Atlantic Ocean.

Implementation of integrated ecosystem assessments in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea—conceptualizations, practice, and progress

Abstract With increasing activities of multiple sectors in marine spaces, management of marine social–ecological systems requires more holistic approaches. Adopting such an approach, however, presents difficult institutional and disciplinary challenges. Here, we use the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) as a case study on the implementation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) and integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs). ICES includes EBM and IEAs in its Science Priorities and established IEA Working Groups (WGs) to carry out regional IEAs. But to what degree does this IEA WG work follow best practices? We examine policy documents, academic literature, and interview data from chairs of all IEA WGs. Results indicate mixed success. All groups acknowledge the holistic goals of IEA, and many use the IEA model as laid out by Levin et al. However, we found a significant variation in the degree to which the full model is applied. We identified two primary areas for improvement: (1) integration of social and economic issues and (2) involvement of stakeholders. We offer examples of how WGs have been making progress towards full IEAs, discuss how ICES can further support this transition, and suggest lessons with respect to the adoption of EBM and IEAs more broadly.

Erratum: Operationalising ODEMM risk assessment for Integrated Ecosystem Assessment scoping: complexity vs. manageability

ERRATUM article Front. Mar. Sci., 17 May 2023Sec. Marine Conservation and Sustainability Volume 10 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1215910

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments for Fisheries Management in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the East/Japan Sea

Marine environmental conditions are highly distinct in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the East/Japan Sea, with characteristics such as the shallow and turbid conditions of the Yellow Sea, relatively warm subtropical conditions of the East China Sea, and deep and semi-enclosed nature of the East/Japan Sea [...]

Integrated ecosystem assessment around islands of the tropical South Mid-Atlantic Ridge

The South Mid Atlantic Ridge comprises three main oceanic islands in the equatorial and tropical portions of the Atlantic Ocean. These islands are isolated from each other and equidistant from both the continental margins of South America and Africa, sharing common patterns but with different types of human use and pressures. Moreover, the areas beyond national jurisdiction between those islands are visited and exploited by distant fishing fleets and include large areas of shipping activity for commodities. Here, a pioneering integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) process is constructed for the region among Saint Peter and Saint Paul’s Archipelago (Brazil), Saint Helena Island and Ascension Island (UK overseas territories). For that, we used a qualitative assessment of risks arising from anthropogenic activities, representing a novel contribution to the field. The Options for Delivering Ecosystem-Based Marine Management (ODEMM) approach was applied to trace sector–pressure–component pathways. A ‘linkage framework’ was outlined including pressures affecting each ecosystem component, and supported a process of knowledge attributions that scored the impact risks. All results were validated with regional stakeholders through workshops, including local and international management bodies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and scientists. The approach focused on a significant area among encompassing the open ocean, shallow and deep-sea biomes, analyzing the main sectors and pressures affecting the ecological components. Our results identified 14 sectors and 16 key pressures associated with 23 ecosystem components, totaling 780 impact chains. Fishing, shipping, wastewater, and tourism/recreation appeared as the top impacting sectors. Fishing and shipping were the most connected with ecosystem components links. Litter, species extraction, contaminants, and bycatch were the pressures that had the highest risk of impact values. Lastly, demersal and pelagic fish and pelagic and demersal elasmobranchs were the groups with the highest risk related to overall impacts, which were supported by local and regional evidence from long term monitoring programs and local studies. Our study demonstrated that these seemingly pristine islands and oceanic waters are already experiencing human impacts that should be addressed by local both conservation measures and international agreements. We also highlight the pressures that should be prioritized for better monitoring and policy, as well as those linkage components that have been less investigated.

Operationalising ODEMM risk assessment for Integrated Ecosystem Assessment scoping: Complexity vs. manageability

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA) require consideration of the full suite of pressures and impacts affecting ecosystems. However, capacity limitations often severely limit our ability to do everything that we want or ‘should’ do, outside of short-term fully-funded focused research projects. In order to make IEA a reality in many contexts, priority consideration has to be given to how to achieve such comprehensive assessments. Ecoregions and Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) have been identified as potential management units, however these large areas encompass diverse habitats, and multiple nations with diverse human communities and use of marine environments, and a multitude of different management strategies. In this context, how can we make IEA an operational tool that can be applied at such high-level in a comparable, yet regionally-relevant adaptable approach? This paper outlines the demonstration and adaptation of an established risk assessment approach (Options for Delivering Ecosystem-Based Marine Management: ODEMM) to a rapid risk scoping tool, and how this approach has been applied using open source common analytical tools to improve operationality in both the Mission Atlantic project and the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Working Groups. Furthermore, a hierarchical approach is detailed that allows the integration of different levels of detail into a common format. The resulting assessments are then ground-truthed with stakeholders to identify issues, omissions, potential conflicts, and key areas of interest for the next steps of the IEA process.

Tracking integrated ecosystem assessments in the ICES network: a social network analysis of the ICES expert groups

AbstractThe advice the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) provides to its member countries is crucial for the sustainable management of shared marine resources, and the conservation of relevant marine ecosystems. In 2014, ICES made a strategic decision to integrate marine and social sciences in a new type of assessment framework called “integrated ecosystem assessments” (IEA) to deliver advice on societal trade-offs between different policy options. The IEA-focused expert groups formed before and after this period now cover all major ecoregions. To track the progression of IEAs in the ICES network over time, we conducted a social network analysis (SNA) on expert group attendance for the years 2015–2019. The IEA-focused expert groups generally ranked lower in the overall ICES network. Our study shows that some IEA-groups become more connected over time, while others decline. We also evaluated the role of workshops in the ICES network, particularly their role in the development of IEA knowledge. Our study shows that workshops play an important role in ICES network connectivity. The study demonstrates how social network analysis can be used to study an organization such as ICES and determine the effectiveness, or impact, of that organizational function.

Testing management scenarios for the North Sea ecosystem using qualitative and quantitative models

Abstract The complexities of ecosystem-based management require stepwise approaches, ideally involving stakeholders, to scope key processes, pressures, and impact in relation to sustainability and management objectives. Use of qualitative methods like Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) with a lower skill and data threshold than traditional quantitative models afford opportunity for even untrained stakeholders to evaluate the present and future status of the marine ecosystems under varying impacts. Here, we present the results applying FCM models for subregions of the North Sea. Models for the southern North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Norwegian Trench were developed with varying level of stakeholder involvement. Future scenarios of increased and decreased fishing, and increased seal biomass in the Kattegat, were compared with similar scenarios run on two quantitative ecosystem model. Correspondence in response by the models to the same scenarios was lowest in the southern North Sea, which had the simplest FCM model, and highest in Norwegian Trench. The results show the potential of combining FCM and quantitative modelling approaches in integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) and in future ecosystem-based management advice, but to facilitate such comparisons and allow them to complement and enhance our IEAs, it is important that their components are aligned and comparable.

Scoping an integrated ecosystem assessment for South Africa

The need to move toward marine ecosystem-based management is globally recognized. Few countries effectively account for multiple interacting pressures in their marine assessments, planning and management. Many socio-economic sectors currently operate in South African waters and in most cases, their associated pressures are managed on a sector-by-sector basis and interacting pressures are seldom accounted for in assessments or decision-making. For ecosystem-based management to be effective, a science-based approach to prioritize sectors and pressures needing most urgent action, and to identify affected ecological components is needed. Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) has hence been put forward as a tool that can organize relevant information and provide context for cross-sectoral management decisions. Consisting of five main stages that form an iterative cycle, the first IEA stage involves scoping of top management priorities in a given area and can be done by way of risk assessment. Through the ODEMM (Options for Delivering Ecosystem-based Marine Management) approach, linkage chains (interactions) among sectors, pressures and affected ecological components for the entirety of the South African marine territory were identified. Subsequently, impact risk scores of each linkage chain were calculated based on the exposure and severity of impacts faced by ecological components from pressures that are associated with each sector. Fishing was the sector with the greatest connectivity (11.65% proportional connectance) in the framework and ranked highest in terms of impact risk (summed), followed by Shipping and Coastal infrastructure. Pressures with the most serious impacts on ecological components, as identified through summed impact risk scores, included Bycatch, Species extraction, and Incidental loss and the ecological components most affected were those primarily associated with Fishing and its associated pressures. These findings align with those of the recent South African National Biodiversity Assessment and corroborate views of local stakeholders. This study also identified key local knowledge gaps, including impacts of underwater noise, invasive species, and climate change, that must be better understood to improve assessment accuracy and guide management prioritization of pressures exerted by most impactful sectors.

Uncovering ecological regime shifts in the Sea of Marmara and reconsidering management strategies

Ecosystem regime shifts can alter ecosystem services, affect human well-being, and trigger policy conflicts due to economic losses and reductions in societal and environmental benefits. Intensive anthropogenic activities make the Sea of Marmara ecosystem suffer from nearly all existing available types of ecosystem pressures such as biological degradation, exposure to hydrological processes, nutrient and organic matter enrichment, plastic pollution, ocean warming, resulting in deterioration of habitats. In this study, using an integrated ecosystem assessment, we investigated for the first time the historical development and ecosystem state of the Sea of Marmara. Multivariate analyses were applied to the most comprehensive and unique long-term data sets of 9 biotic and 15 abiotic variables for ecosystem state and drivers respectively, from 1986 to 2020. Observed changes were confirmed by detecting shifts in the datasets. The Sea of Marmara ecosystem was classified into three regimes: i) an early initial state regime under the top-down control of predatory medium pelagic fish and fisheries exploitation until mid-1990s, ii) a transitional regime between mid-1990s and mid-2010s as from ecosystem restructuring, and iii) an alternate state late regime with prevailing impacts of climate change from mid-2010s until 2020. During the 20 years transitional regime, three different phases were also characterized; i) the 1st phase between mid-1990s and early 2000s with its gradual change in ecosystem state from a decrease in predators and significant shift in physical drivers of the ecosystem, ii) the 2nd phase between 2000 and mid-2000s with a strong shift in ecosystem state, an ongoing increase in climate indices and fishing mortality, and a gradual decrease in water quality; and iii) the 3rd phase between mid-2000s and mid-2010s with the reorganization of the ecosystem dominated by small pelagic fish and ameliorated water quality. During late regime, we observed that most of the biotic variables, mainly fish biomass, and climate variables did not return to their initial state despite the improvement in some abiotic variables such as water quality. We identify these observed changes in the SoM ecosystem as a non-linear regime shift. Finally, we also developed concrete suggestions for improved regional management.

Temporal characteristics of plankton indicators in coastal waters: High-frequency data from PlanktonScope

Plankton are excellent indicators of ecosystem status and fisheries because of their pivotal role in marine food webs and their core values in the integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). Monitoring plankton is essential to understand their dynamics and underlying processes. Recent advances in imaging technologies have enabled in situ, high-frequency, real-time observations of plankton in coastal waters. While high-frequency plankton time series have provided unprecedented fundamental information about physical and biological processes, understanding and identifying the underlying mechanisms that influence plankton dynamic remains a major challenge. We use high-frequency plankton data from PlanktonScope as an example to examine the impacts of physical and biological processes on plankton dynamics at different temporal scales. Frequency patterns were identified for both environmental factors and different plankton groups that matched in time. Using logistic regression models on the selected daily peaks for different plankton groups, we found that diurnal cycle, monsoon season, and major episodic events, such as typhoons, had major impacts on the dynamics of plankton, as proxied by our indicators. We further synthesized, across multiple spatiotemporal scales in the study area, the impacts of various processes on plankton with different mobility. Our study demonstrates that the suite of plankton indicators simultaneously generated from PlanktonScope provides a robust holistic view of pelagic ecosystem status over a broad range of spatiotemporal scales. In situ imaging systems like PlanktonScope are promising tools for near real-time plankton monitoring and a deep understanding of plankton dynamics.

The importance of cephalopods in the diet of fish on the northwest European shelf

Abstract Cephalopods are universal to the world's oceans and prey to many fish species. On the northwest European shelf, integrated ecosystem assessments are rapidly evolving into the preferred method for holistically assessing stocks, but cephalopods appear to be an overlooked component, perhaps because their roles in ecosystems have seldom been quantified in recent years. We have analysed historical fish stomach records and revisited literature at local and regional level to determine the importance of cephalopods to the diets of 26 ecologically important finfish. We conclude that, in contrast to most other large marine ecosystems, cephalopods found in the Greater North Sea and the Celtic Seas regions appear to contribute only a small fraction to the diets of ecologically important finfish (found in the stomachs of ∼14% of specimens among some species, but generally only 1–3% in most species), though their role as predator may be important and require further investigation. Based on our findings, cephalopods may not represent a key component for integrated ecosystem assessments, though as squid populations have been shown to expand throughout the North Sea in recent years, regular monitoring is encouraged to identify the point where their inclusion into such models may be necessary.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of ecosystem health in Central Asia

Land-use/land-cover change in Central Asia has led to ecological disasters such as draining of the Aral Sea, salinization, desertification that ultimately affect the ecosystem's health. However, only a few studies have systematically assessed the spatial-temporal characteristics of ecosystem health in Central Asia using an integrated ecosystem assessment method. Therefore, this study aims to assess the ecosystem health of Central Asia using multi-source high-resolution data as the indicator and the integrated ecosystem vigor-ecosystem organization-ecosystem elasticity (V-O-E) model. The result showed that most of the areas in Central Asia are in a weak state of ecosystem vigor, ecosystem organization, ecosystem elasticity, and ecosystem health. The fragile state of the ecosystem health was highly due to the decreasing density of forest land, farmland, waterbody, and the increasing density of bare land and artificial land. The area of farmland gradually decreased, from 878639.08 km2 in 2000 to 719128.08 km2 in 2010 and 584251.36 km2 in 2017. The forest of Central Asia has been declining continuously from 161998.69 km2 in 2000 to 115343.96 km2 in 2010 to 81185.10 km2 in 2017 and has become spatially heterogeneous. Interestingly, the area of forest land in Xinjiang increased from 18216.14 km2 in 2000 to 20970.92 km2 in 2010 and 23098.12 km2 in 2017, although there was a decrease in the overall forest land in other countries of Central Asia; this shows that China's afforestation and reforestation policies during the last two decades had notable contributions to the ecosystem vigor and ecosystem elasticity in Xinjiang, which led to the increase in ecosystem health in Xinjiang. Hence, it is urgent to initiate integrated water management measures, limit the population growth and take adequate measures to enhance the techniques of farmland development to enhance the ecosystem health of Central Asia.

Polycentricity and Regional Ocean Governance: Implications for the Emerging UN Agreement on Marine Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction

The governance of the two-thirds of the world’s ocean in areas beyond national jurisdiction (the high seas and deep seabed beyond national jurisdiction or ABNJ) is currently fragmented into diverse institutions addressing specific activities, issues or regions. This has hampered the international community’s ability to redress critical issues including biodiversity loss, pollution, climate change, ecosystem degradation and declining fisheries in an integrated and ecosystem-based manner. Our analysis of polycentricity theory and associated enabling conditions shows that the current polycentric approach to marine biodiversity in ABNJ is not yet fully functional: it is missing the two key attributes of: (1) generally applicable rules and norms structuring actions and behaviors, and (2) processes to enhance cooperation, coordination, and conflict resolution. Based on the enabling conditions conducive for achieving “a functional polycentric governance system” identified in Carlisle and Gruby (2019), combined with a prior analysis applying resilience principles for socio-ecological systems to ABNJ (Yadav and Gjerde, 2020), this article suggests seven ways the emerging United Nations agreement on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity of ABNJ (BBNJ Agreement) could stimulate coordinated and integrated action at both global and regional levels in ABNJ. These include: (1) overarching rules, goals and objectives; (2) formal and informal conflict resolution mechanisms; (3) robust global institutional arrangements; (4) strengthened global, regional and sectoral bodies with shared and overlapping responsibility for biodiversity conservation; (5) strengthened cooperation through integrated ecosystem assessments and strategic action programmes at ecologically meaningful scales that could include areas within and beyond national jurisdiction; (6) learning exchange mechanisms within and across regions; and (7) strengthened regional and national capacities for ecosystem-based management in ABNJ. Taken together, these tools could enhance the resilience of ocean institutions, ecosystems and biodiversity to cope with growing pressures, uncertainty and rapid change in ABNJ.