External thermal insulation cladding systems (ETICSs) have been widely used in recent years as a method of saving energy in buildings. As their application increases, failures caused by bonding mortar deformation are becoming more serious. In this paper, a coupled thermo-moisture-mechanical model was established by simulation to analyse the influence of a typical climate with four seasons and the method of mortar adhesion with deformation. We investigated the contributions of temperature, relative humidity, and wind pressure on ETICS failure risk. We also analysed the failure risk in different extreme climates. This study aids in accurately quantifying deformation and predicting failure under complex climatic conditions.
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