Institute For The Future Research Articles

Policy making for global food security in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world

PurposeThis paper aims to explain the uncertainties associated with food security and, in doing so, classifies them within the context of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). In using this lens to frame the challenges of food security, the viewpoint proffers the need to be even more sensitive to heightened levels of uncertainty and highlights the need of governments to be prepared to meet a wider variety of external forces, risks, opportunities and threats to mitigate food insecurity.Design/methodology/approachThis research constructs a novel morphology of food security and food waste policy futures based upon a range of scenario types based on contextual narratives relating to constraint, collapse, growth and transformation. In doing so, offering a representation that suggests order, complexity and chaos occur across a range of four domains of interaction: known (repeatable cause and effect); knowable (cause and effect separated over time); complex (cause and effect are unique and non-repeatable); and chaos (no cause and effect relationship perceivable). This orientation is represented in the form of a novel morphology that can be used to support decision-making and policymaking/consideration.FindingsThe authors have presented and identified a combination of a structured and unstructured methods to develop and hence classify a range of food security scenarios. Using the VUCA worldview and classification, the authors subsequently identify seven underlying and seven United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)-derived factors, which when combined with the Institute for the Future (IFTF) four food security scenarios in a pairwise manner led to the generation of a further 16 subsequent VUCA-inspired scenarios composed within a morphological grid. These were subsequently reclassified against three sets of stakeholders and then finally mapped to the Cynefin framework as a set of ten scenarios to show the potential of making greater sense of the VUCA nature of food security.Practical implicationsThe paper proposes a novel conceptual approach to framing and understanding the wider holistic aspects of explaining and providing foresight to the complexities of food security. Hence, this paper provides policymakers with two contrasting, yet complementary, food security scenario planning techniques (VUCA and Cynefin), which envelope 16 narrative food security scenarios which can be used with stakeholders and advocacy groups in facilitating discussion about complex, messy and “wicked” interlinkages within the food security domain.Originality/valueThis is the first time in the extant literature that a combination of structured and unstructured, problem-based versus mess-based, contrasting perspectives have been brought together and developed, with the intention of creating a normative family or portfolio of narrative-driven food security scenarios. The authors present and extend four existing scenarios from the extant food security literature, and subsequently, through interpreting these scenarios via a dual and combined lens (notably using UN SDG and VUCA elements), a grid of alternative food security scenarios is produced. By then using applying the Cynefin complexity framework to these new configurations, a thematic categorisation of alternative futures is presented, which may aid policy and decision-makers when considering this topic.

Nuevas competencias para gestionar los datos, la información y el conocimiento

Several issues have changed de world where information professionals used to work and be successful. Those issues have been analyzed in several reports, like the one from the Institute for the Future a Phoenix University. These changes in society and culture have an impact in the labor environment and in the information science jobs. New abilities and capacities are required to accomplish tasks, to innovate and be part in the development of our societies.

Catalysts for change: vizualizing the horizon of poverty

PurposeThe Institute for the Future (IFTF) has collaborated with the Rockefeller Foundation and its Searchlight function to create a framework for broad engagement in strategic thinking about ways to catalyze change in the lives of poor or vulnerable communities. This paper seeks to focus on this broad‐based approach.Design/methodology/approachStarting from the top‐down horizon scan of the foundation's Searchlight partners – a network of horizon scanning organizations – IFTF created a public database of signals of innovation and disruption in the domain of poverty and social change. This signals database was used to build a visual map of catalysts for change, creating a simple hierarchy of four catalyst types, each containing four action zones and a pivotal challenge. This map provided the language and framework for engaging a global community in a serious game to extend the vision of the Searchlight function and capture novel ideas for innovations that could improve the lives of those in marginalized communities.FindingsWith an estimated global reach of 160,000 views and 1,600 game players from 79 countries, the game produced more than 18,000 ideas about catalysts for change.Originality/valueThis framework of foresight (the signals database) to insight (the visual map of catalysts for change) to action (global strategic game) demonstrates a way to integrate top‐down expert foresight with bottom‐up strategic ideation on a global scale.

Leadership challenges associated with the management of Generation Y employees: A proposed theoretical model

This paper acknowledges that Generation Y (Gen-Yers), who have grown up in a world of convenience and easy access to information, are more complex to lead and to understand than generations before them. Gen-Yers have entered the labour market at a time when the current labour force is aging in the world and in South Africa. Gen-Yers are working with forty to sixty-year-olds and in some cases supervising employees old enough to be their parents. If unhappy with work circumstances Gen-Yers change careers fast, thus creating frustration for employers struggling to retain and recruit talented high-performers. According to the report for the Future of Small Business Management (2007) issued by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) based in California which has forecasted emerging trends affecting the global marketplace for 40 years, Gen-Yers, will emerge as the most entrepreneurial generation ever in the next decade. These highly independent individuals will rather be small business owners or freelancers and will choose not to work for large corporations. What are the leadership challenges facing South African companies when they engage with Gen-Yers? Firstly, this paper explores the concept Gen-Yers, as discussed in the theory. Secondly the paper further explores possible conflicting areas between current leadership practices and Gen-Yers. The paper concludes by supporting the value that Gen-Yers can bring to companies and suggests some practices that can be adopted by leadership to engage and motivate them and at the same time ensure that their companies stay ahead of competitors by keeping Gen-Yers motivated to stay in their employment. A theoretical model is suggested for testing Gen-Yers tenure of employment relationship.

The Institute for the Future of the Book

The Institute for the Future of the Book

IEEE Fellows Survey: Bursting Tech Bubbles Before They Balloon

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) and IEEE Spectrum conducted an online survey between February and March 2006 among more than 700 IEEE Fellows from all over the globe to identify key breakthroughs in their areas of expertise and to forecast probabilities of specific developments. Called The Future of Science and Technology Survey, it identified several forecast domains that included computer science, telecommunications and media, sensors and robotics, materials and nanotechnology, energy, physics, space and earth sciences, and human health and biology

Industry urged to boost investment in R&D

To safeguard the nation's future, U.S. government spending on basic research should be maintained at 1% of gross domestic product (GDP). And the private sector's investment in R&D should increase to 2.0% of GDP from its current level of 1.6%. That's the thrust of Future of America's Research-Intensive Industries, a report prepared by the Menlo Park, Calif.-based Institute for the Future (IFTF). The report was released last week at a press conference on Capitol Hill. A host of eminent industrial, academic, and federal government figures were on hand to give it their approval. The report is the result of a year-and-a-half-long study funded by 23 major pharmaceutical companies. It was prepared by IFTF personnel working with a task force of 16 senior executives from the computer, pharmaceutical, software, semiconductor, electronic components, scientific instrument, communications, aerospace, and chemical industries. This groundbreaking study should jolt us as a nation out of our current state of ...

A note on what we have learned about the methods of futures planning

Lessons Learned In the last decade or two, perhaps the most important trend in the use of futures planning (FP) tools has been the move away from methodological formalisms and doctrinaire approaches-particularly those that purport to reduce futures methods planning to a mechanistic sequence of steps or “silver bullet” solutions. The following is a summary of the evolution of the methods the Institute for the Future (IFTF) has used and some lessons we have learned.

What we have learned about forecasting and planning

It is rare for long-range forecasters and futurists to outlast their forecasts. When they do, they must inevitably be prepared to face questions about their track records. What most people want to know is how well one has done in terms of ‘hits’ or ‘misses’. It does little good to comment on the futility of ‘point’ forecasting—particularly for 10-year periods—or on the greater importance of identifying and monitoring critical factors that may shape a forecast. Nor does it seem to help to point out that all forecasts are based on the best currently available information and that new information will almost certainly be used to modify a forecast. So this article presents some hits and misses achieved by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and uses the experience from these forecasts to distil some lessons learned. They are summarized as 10 do's and don'ts of forecasting and planning.