Abstract This paper presents the development of a sequence-based simulation tool for the weather risk assessment of offshore work processes. The approach developed at the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems is the Advanced Weather Time Series Scheduling (Ad-WATSS) method. For statistical significance, this method combines hindcast weather time series of many years with the weather restrictions associated with offshore activities. The method is incorporated into the software tool COAST, where a project plan schedule is simulated by placing activities according to their operational limits, constraints and relationships, and minimum-required time for each operation. A scenario of an offshore wind installation project in the North Sea is used as reference test case for a weather risk assessment using the developed tool and ERA5 weather data. The assessment is then compared with the weather window statistics approach, based on the same weather data sets. The results from both approaches are analysed and compared on a project and task level detail. The results from the sequence-based simulations show that the method is able to capture the long-term variability and extreme events in weather conditions, making it a reliable tool for the simplification of the weather data-based planning, validation, and assessment of offshore projects.
Read full abstract