Shortage Of Inputs Research Articles

Limited (energy) supply, monetary policy, and sunspots

In a simple New Keynesian open economy setting, we analyze how local input shortages influence policy transmission and equilibrium determinacy. Shortages increase the elasticity of the local price of the scarce factor to domestic economic activity, affecting the cyclicality of marginal costs and incomes. As a result, the slope of both the Phillips and the IS curve is altered, crucially influencing monetary and fiscal policy transmission. These changes are affected by factor ownership and propensities to consume. Theoretically, shortages can also raise the risk of self-fulfilling fluctuations if a rising price of the constrained factor boosts incomes for agents with high propensities to consume. We illustrate these channels for the 2022 German energy crisis.

Limited (Energy) Supply, Monetary Policy, and Sunspots

In a simple New Keynesian open economy setting, we analyze how local input shortages influence policy transmission and equilibrium determinacy. Shortages increase the elasticity of the local price of the scarce factor to domestic economic activity, affecting the cyclicality of marginal costs and incomes. As a result, the slope of both the Phillips and the IS curve is altered, crucially influencing monetary and fiscal policy transmission. These changes are affected by factor ownership and propensities to consume. Theoretically, shortages can also raise the risk of self-fulfilling fluctuations if a rising price of the constrained factor boosts incomes for agents with high propensities to consume. We illustrate these channels for the 2022 German energy crisis.

Supply Shocks in Global Value Chains and Export Performance: Evidence from Bangladesh Using Triple Difference-in-Differences

In this paper, we evaluate how supply shocks in global value chains, such as the lockdown in China during the coronavirus pandemic, affected firm-product-level export performance in Bangladesh, which is a least-developed country where domestic inputs are inadequate due to capacity constraints. Transaction-level customs data on the universe of Bangladeshi apparel manufacturing firms are used in the analysis. We apply a triple difference-in-differences approach to compare the woven apparel exports of the firms that relied on China for inputs before and after the lockdown with those of knit apparel and firms that depended on the rest of the world as a comparison group. The results show that firms exposed to the Chinese input supply shock experienced a 36.5% decline in woven apparel exports after the lockdown. A plausible explanation for the decline in exports is the reduced shipment size driven by the constrained production capacity due to the shortage of inputs from China. We also find that exposed firms whose exports were highly concentrated in the European Union and the United States incurred an additional 18% decline compared to other firms.

Risk Perception, Management Strategies, Determinants of Adoption and Sustainability in Sri Lanka’s Layer Chicken Farming Industry: Navigating Crisis

The layer chicken farming industry in Sri Lanka has faced significant challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic and broader economic downturn. In response to risks such as critical input shortages, price escalations, retail regulations and reduced demand, some farmers exit while others persevere with risk management strategies. A study was conducted to evaluate farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude and identify risk management strategies they adopted and the determinants of the adoption. The study found that farmers identified institutional risks as the most significant, followed by marketing risks. However, the adoption of targeted risk management strategies for these concerns remains limited. The multivariate probit analysis showed that risk-averse farmers are more likely to leave the industry, while small-scale farmers tend to reduce household expenditure to survive the crisis. Ensuring the industry’s long-term sustainability requires targeted interventions supporting small and medium-scale farmers (SMEs), who play a crucial role in the industry’s resilience and longevity. One effective strategy is facilitating partnerships between SMEs and larger entrepreneurial farms willing to share risks for a defined period. Additionally, enhancing the resilience capacity of SMEs to navigate risks is crucial for industry resilience and longevity.

Exploring Farmers’ Perception and Constraints on the Adoption of Small‐Scale Irrigation in Hulet Eju Enesie District, North‐Western Ethiopia

Irrigation farming is one approach to reduce climate‐related risks, and make production possible throughout the year. Nevertheless, farmers were limited to using small‐scale irrigation (SSI) in the study area. This study mainly analyzed the perception of farmers’ and their constraints to use irrigation. The study used a multistage sampling technique to collect the primary data from 102 nonuser and 82 irrigation user respondents. Likert rating scale, relative importance index (RII), and descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. The result of the RII indicates that, irrigation ensures high‐net income (0.87), high‐market demand for products (0.84), and insurance against drought (0.82) were highly perceived as advantageous attributes of the irrigation. Whereas, production cost (0.85), skill requirements (0.74), and declining soil fertility (0.65) were strongly perceived as relative disadvantage attributes of irrigation. Plant disease, input shortages, ineffective water distribution, and poor transportation are identified as major constraints for farmers to practice irrigation. Overall, farmers commonly noted the importance of irrigation. However, irrigation users highly perceived the positive attributes; whereas nonusers extremely perceived the negative attributes of irrigation. This implies the existence of perception differences between the two groups of farmers. Therefore, concerned stakeholders should strive to close the perception gap toward irrigation through interventions.

Factors affecting onion production: An empirical study in the Raya Kobo district, Amhara regional state, Ethiopia.

Onion is a vital vegetable crop in Ethiopia, with significant economic and health benefits. However, its production trend is not consistent, with periods of increase and decrease; and its productivity in the country falls far below its potential. As a result, farmers are not yet fully benefited from onion production. Thus, this study was initiated to identify the factors influencing onion production in the Raya Kobo District of Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia. Data was collected from 189 onion-producing farmers through household surveys, and both descriptive and econometric techniques were used for analysis. The study found significant variation in onion production among farmers, with lower levels compared to national and international averages. Factors such as gender, education level, experience, labor force, land size, access to extension services, irrigation water, land plough frequency, and fertilizer availability positively impact onion production. However, excessive fertilizer use was found to have a negative effect. The study also identified challenges faced by farmers, including input shortages, high costs, diseases, labor issues, soil infertility, and storage knowledge gaps. The study recommends policymakers and stakeholders to utilize these findings to develop effective policies and interventions that can enhance onion production, benefiting farmers and improving the overall onion production.

Small ruminant value chain in Al-Ruwaished District, Jordan

This study aims to assess the small ruminant value chain in Al-Ruwaished District, Jordan, to identify the potential intervention areas that could improve the production efficiency and guarantee the sustainability of the small ruminant sector in this area. Sheep breeding is the source of livelihood for most of the people in Al-Ruwaished District, which is characterized by the large number of sheep and goats. We surveyed 5.0% of the small ruminant holders in the study area and conducted individual interviews and surveys with the potential actors in the value chain to undertake a small ruminant value chain analysis. From the survey, we found that the small ruminant value chain consists of five core functions, namely, input supply, production management, marketing, processing, and consumption. Despite the large number of holdings that gives an impression of the stability to the small ruminant sector, the surveyed results show a clear fragility in the value chain of small ruminants in this area. The small ruminant production system is negatively impacted by climate change, especially continuous drought. In addition, the high prices of feed that the farmer cannot afford with clear and real absence of the governmental and non-governmental support activities also impact the development of the value chain. The results of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis reveal that the major constraints faced by this value chain could be divided into external and internal threats. Specifically, the most prominent external threats are the nature of the desert land and continuous drought, while the major internal threats are the absence of appropriate infrastructure, shortage of inputs, and weakness in the production management and marketing. We proposed solutions to these challenges to ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of the sector, such as the formulation of emergency response plans to severe weather, qualifying farmers’ skills, and establishment of agricultural cooperative societies.

The WTO and Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience during a Pandemic

ABSTRACT Cross-border supply chains and international trade enabled the manufacturing and delivery of billions of vaccine doses to inoculate the world against the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). At the same time, the pandemic revealed how the World Trade Organization (WTO) must change to become more useful in the face of a public health emergency. This paper describes the market failures—especially on the supply side—justifying the domestic subsidies and contracting arrangements used to accelerate vaccine research and development and to increase the scale of vaccine production to save lives, livelihoods, and economic activity during a pandemic. It highlights the trade-offs associated with the US subsidies and the priority-rated contracts written for vaccines through the Defense Production Act under Operation Warp Speed. This case study reveals a rich environment in which cross-border supply chains exacerbate input shortages in ways that constrain vaccine production, highlighting the need for the WTO to embrace new forms of international policy coordination for pandemic preparedness and response. As part of a pandemic treaty, the paper proposes a plurilateral agreement on vaccine supply chain resilience that would include novel and enforceable disciplines for export restrictions, provisions to trigger coordinated subsidies across countries to jointly scale up vaccine output and input production capacity, and market surveillance initiatives on supply chain transparency.

Preschool teachers’ beliefs and practices of developmentally appropriate practice (DAP)

The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore preschool teachers’ beliefs and practices on developmentally appropriate practices. The study sites are a mix of public and private preschools that are located in Gondar City, Ethiopia. From these study sites, six participants were purposively selected. Date data were collected through in-depth interviews. Audio-recorded in-depth interviews were transcribed verbatim. Then the Amharic transcript was then translated into the English language and made ready for further thematic analysis. The results indicated a discrepancy between preschool teachers’ beliefs and their actual classroom practices of DAP. The participants reported strong beliefs about the importance of DAP for children’s development and learning. However, they did not follow the DAP guides when teaching children. The preschool teachers attributed this discrepancy to external factors such as shortage of inputs, large class size, lack of parental support and administrative problems. Therefore, the Ministry of Education, policy makers, teacher training colleges and school administrators should design strategies that enable preschool teachers to practice their strong beliefs in implementing DAP in the classroom.

Covid-19 vaccine supply chains and the Defense Production Act

Abstract In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the US government used novel policies to accelerate research, development, and production of a diversified portfolio of new vaccines. This article begins by describing the Defense Production Act (DPA) of 1950 and the initial ‘priority-rated’ contracts agreed to under Operation Warp Speed in 2020 to expedite manufacturing and achieve scale, which succeeded in producing hundreds of millions of doses of Covid-19 vaccines by early 2021. However, a puzzle soon emerged, as the scale of US vaccine production was shortly thereafter overtaken by plants in the European Union and India. The paper investigates the trade-offs US policy-makers faced in early 2021—once much of the initial uncertainty about the safety and effectiveness of many Covid-19 vaccines had been resolved—about whether to recalibrate contracts to expand production capacity to help meet global, instead of US, vaccine demand. It also examines the emergence of input shortages and assesses whether both the price constraints implicit in the 2020 DPA contracts and business decisions made to quicken the process of bringing new vaccine plants online globally inadvertently exacerbated them. It also explores the potential need for complementary, input capacity-enhancing policies in the face of highly fragmented, cross-border Covid-19 vaccine supply chains.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: The Role of Financial Development

This study examines the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on economic growth, including investigating whether the CO2-economic growth relationship is dependent on financial development in Nigeria between 1980 and 2020. Due to dwindling economic growth, Nigeria experienced two recessions in one decade. Besides poor growth rates, Nigeria remains a leading emitter of CO2 in the Sub-Saharan region. The motivation for this study derived from the rising level of carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria which might affect economic growth by dwindling agricultural activities (low output) in some regions, pose health challenges and create a shortage of inputs to agro-allied industries. Hence, this paper attempted to see if there was a causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, financial development, and economic growth in Nigeria. The relationship between the variables was examined using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation technique (ARDL) estimation method. The framework for this study has its basis in the endogenous growth theory and utilizes the growth and pollution stock model which showed that sustainable economic growth is influenced by a large stock of pollution (CO2 emission). The results of the boundaries test for cointegration showed a long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, economic expansion, financial development, and energy use. According to empirical data, CO2 emissions have little long-term impact on economic growth. However, there is evidence that the interaction of CO2 emissions and financial development promotes economic growth over the long term, suggesting that CO2 emissions only have an economic influence when there is financial development.

Characterization and Analysis of Farming System in Horo Guduru Wollaga Zone, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia

Agriculture is a dominant sector of Ethiopian economy which makes a lion share contribution to the Gross Domestic Product, employment and foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture is still believed to remain a sector that plays an important role in stimulating the overall economic development of the country in the years to come. To improve agricultural productivity it requires detail study on existing farming systems. This study is to characterize and analyze the existing farming system, identify the production constraints and further opportunities in the farming system interventions for the study areas. The study was based on primary and secondary data. A three-stage sampling technique was employed to select respondents from the population. The study was based on cross sectional data collected from 123 randomly selected respondents. About 86.18% of the sample respondents were male headed with while 13.82 were female headed households. The zone was characterized by mixed farming systems i.e. livestock and crop production take place within the same locality. The farmers face production and market constraints to improve production and productivity. The production constraints of livestock production were disease, shortage of grazing land, feed shortage, shortage of veterinary medicine, lack of improved breed and shortage of water while marketing constraints were Market price/demand fluctuation, Lack of information, Lack of market linkage and High transaction cost. The production constraints of crop production were Disease and insect, High cost of inputs, Untimely input supply, Shortage of land, Weed infestation, Shortage of inputs, Low yield, Poor seed quality and Poor soil fertility while market constraints low price of output, lack of market information, lack of market linkage and high transaction cost. Even though the farmers were practice SWC through Check dam and terraces, soil erosion, soil acidity, water logging, soil fertility decline and termite were important constraints in natural resources. Improving livestock productivity through improved breed, forage, control disease and control illegal livestock trade are need attention. Additionally, improving crop productivity through IPM, improved varieties, minimizes transaction cost, focus on high value of crop, expand soil and water conservation, strength market information and linkage where need urgent concentration. Keywords: Oromia , Horo Guduru Wollega, Characterization, farming system DOI: 10.7176/JHMN/102-01 Publication date: October 31 st 2022

Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China

How do firms in global value chains react to input shortages? We examine micro-level adjustments to supply chain shocks, building on the Covid-19 pandemic as a case study. French firms sourcing inputs from China just before the early lockdown in the country experienced a relative drop in imports that increases from February to April 2020. This shock on input purchases transmits to the rest of the supply chain through exposed firm’s domestic and export sales. Between February and June, firms exposed to the Chinese early lockdown experienced a 5.5% drop in domestic sales and a 5% drop in exports, in relative terms with respect to comparable non-exposed firms. The drop in foreign sales is entirely attributable to a lower volume of exports driven by a temporary withdrawal from occasional markets. We then dig into the heterogeneity of the transmission across treated firms. Whereas the ex-ante geographic diversification of inputs does not seem to mitigate the impact of the shock, firms with relatively high inventories have been able to absorb the supply shock better.

Econometrics and archival data: Reflections for purchasing and supply management (PSM) research

Purchasing and supply management (PSM) has faced unprecedented disruption over the past two years due to COVID-19 pandemic, input shortages, extended supplier lead times, record international transportation costs, and commodity price increases. Studying such phenomena is often best completed using archival data, such as data from government agencies or international organizations. This manuscript emphasizes how leveraging archival data often necessitates an iterative research process whereby researchers must first familiarize themselves with the data to ensure their scientific hypotheses can be appropriately tested. We further provide recommendations regarding how researchers should formulate generalized linear models (GLMs) to test theoretical predictions. Our approach emphasizes mapping scientific hypotheses to statistical hypotheses, as opposed to centering on issues of omitted variable bias (OVB). An illustrative example is provided where Census Bureau trade data are compiled to test whether the insurance and freight costs for waterborne containerized imports from Asian nations that enter through West Coast ports have risen more than the same products imported through East Coast ports. The research suggests the need to reorient how GLMs are formulated to better ensure researchers structure them to appropriately test their theory, in contrast to the current zeitgeist that overly emphasizes OVB.

TheImpacts of Apple-based Agroforestry Practices on the Livelihoods of Smallholder Farmers in Southern Ethiopia

The introduction and expansion of apple-based agroforestry practices contribute to eco-environmental sustainability and positively affect smallholder farmers' socioeconomic well-being. This paper investigates apple production patterns, its livelihood implications, and challenges in Southern Ethiopia, focusing on Chencha Woreda. Mixed research approaches were used to acquire and analyse data. Purposive and systematic random sampling techniques were applied to select sample kebeles and 309 farm-households. Questionnaires, interviews, FGDs, field observations, and document reviews were employed to collect data. Data were analysed quantitatively using SPSS and qualitatively. The study revealed that apple was introduced to Chencha by missionaries, nevertheless, with notable time lag for its intensive production. Field data confirmed spatial variation in apple production, areas relatively close to Chencha town produces more apples than farther kebeles. The land covered by apples at woreda and household levels is negligible compared to the potential. Educational status, age, landholding size, distance, and development agents’ support significantly influenced apple farm size in the study area. Regardless of the multifaceted challenges (land fragmentation, shortage of inputs, knowledge gaps in harvesting, increasing illegal marketing, and prevalence of thieves), apple production positively contributed to farmers' livelihoods. The livelihood assets ownership status of apple-producer farmers was highly improved compared to the previous conditions. Designing progressive capacity-building programs, adequately supplying agricultural inputs/tools, and introducing a strong apple production policy will offset the challenges and enhance farmers' productivity.

Impacts of COVID-19 on the Fisheries and Aquaculture Sector in Developing Countries and Ways Forward

Fish is a major source of food and nutritional security for subsistence communities in developing countries, it also has linkages with the economic and supply-chain dimensions of these countries. Burgeoning literature has revealed the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on the fisheries and aquaculture sector, which serves as the major source of income and employment for numerous people globally. This study has employed a systematic literature review of the overall impacts of COVID-19 on the fisheries and aquaculture sector in developing countries using the PRISMA approach. This study reveals that COVID-19 has posed numerous challenges to fish supply chain actors, including a shortage of inputs, a lack of technical assistance, an inability to sell the product, a lack of transportation for the fish supply, export restrictions on fish and fisheries products, and a low fish price. These challenges lead to inadequate production, unanticipated stock retention, and a loss in returns. COVID-19 has also resulted in food insecurity for many small-scale fish growers. Fish farmers are becoming less motivated to raise fish and related products as a result of these cumulative consequences. Because of COVID-19’s different restriction measures, the demand and supply sides of the fish food chain have been disrupted, resulting in reduced livelihoods and economic vulnerability. In order to assist stakeholders to cope with, adapt to, and build resilience to pandemics and other shocks, this study offers policy recommendations to address the COVID-19-induced crisis in the fisheries and aquaculture sector.

Strategies for coping with the effects of agricultural land conflict among crop farmers in Imo State, Nigeria

The study examined strategies used by crop farmers in coping with the effects of agricultural land conflicts in Imo State, Nigeria. A sample of 288 crop farmers selected using the multistage sampling technique participated in the study. Data were collected from the farmers using a structured interview schedule and analyzed using percentages and mean. The result showed that maize (94.1%), leafy vegetables (86.8%), yam (77.0%), fruity vegetable (73.5%) and plantain (72.8%) were the major crops grown by the farmers. Perceived causes of land conflicts included undocumented agreement over land use between individuals (97.2%), lack of marked boundaries (89.5%), increasing the value of land (89.5%), new laws, policies or programmes (72.8%), migration (72.8%) and land grabbing (72.8%). Perceived effects of land conflict on crop production were a decline in income (X̅ = 3.8), lack of financial resources (X̅ = 3.8), shortage of inputs (X̅ = 3.8), increase in the cost of inputs (X̅ = 3.8), lack of market for produce (X̅ = 3.8), land redundancy (X̅ = 3.7), improperly timed farming activities (X̅= 3.7), loss lives (X̅ = 3.7) and reduction in plot size (X̅ = 3.5, S.D = 1.0). Coping strategies used were divesting from crop production (X̅ = 4.0), diversification of farm enterprises (X̅ = 3.9), appeasing other parties (X̅=3.9), praying for peace (X̅ = 3.9) and adopting less risky income-generating activities (X̅ = 3.8). It was recommended that existing land governance systems be reviewed in order to accommodate recent changes. Keywords: Conflict resolution, coping strategies, agricultural land, crop farmers, effects, rural areas.

Strategy for coping up with post-pandemic challenges faced by livestock farmers in India

This paper presents the impact of COVID outbreak on livestock husbandry sector and economic loss to dairy and poultry farmers in India. Lack of communication, shortage of inputs, poor access to veterinary care, disruption of supply chain and closure of market were the major problems. Several recommendations have been made to address these problems of natural calamities in the future.

Profitability and market performance of smallholder vegetable production: evidence from Ethiopia

Regardless of the fact that the vegetable crop is crucial for Ethiopia's economy, public research on vegetable crops was negligible, and limited attention has been given to the sector. The main objective of the study was to analyze profitability of vegetable production, market performance and identify major constraints of smallholder vegetables production, specifically potato, tomato and cabbage. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select 420 sample households randomly from nine kebeles, and 139 traders were selected purposively. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected from primary and secondary sources by using structured questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, gross profit formula and structure-conduct-performance model was applied to analyze the data. The result of profitability analysis showed that potato, tomato and cabbage production in the study area was profitable. The result of structure analysis indicated that the market structure for potato, tomato and cabbage was characterized by weak oligopolistic market. The analysis of market conduct showed that the price of vegetables was determined by traders. Performance analysis demonstrated that the total gross marketing margin and profit margin was highest when producers sold vegetables to consumers and the lowest when they sold vegetables to collectors across the channel. Shortage of inputs, pests and diseases, lack of improved storage, post-harvest loss, brokers' interventions, low price of the product, poor transportation facility and information flow were the major constraints. Therefore, policy initiatives aiming at increasing farmers' access to quality vegetables inputs, strengthen vegetable extension services, improving infrastructure, disseminating reliable market information, reducing unfair profit distribution and increasing bargaining power of farmers to accelerate rural economic growth and poverty reduction. In addition, research institutes and universities should significantly contribute in releasing high yielding and disease resistant varieties to improve production and productivity of vegetables sector.

Assessment of Constraints and Opportunities of Tea Out-Growers in South West Ethiopia

This research attempted to generate useful information on tea out growers’ constraints and opportunities in tea production and marketing, which helps governmental institutions to assess their activities and redesign their operations. The research was done by interviewing tea out growers surrounding the two major tea plantations Wush Wush and Gumero in south west Ethiopia. Data was collected from 120 randomly selected households. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and Relative Severity Index to analyze constraints. The obtained result showed that, out-growers on average allocated 1.37 ha land to produce tea. They plucked on average 295 kg/ha export standard or 731 kg/ha local standard green tea leaves in one harvest in main season. Relative Severity index analysis revealed that out growers’ major constraints of tea production were high price and timely availability of inputs, shortage of inputs, high cost of production, need intensive plot management, lack of capital, no government intervention and extension service and lack of training. However, they have good opportunities in obtaining frequent income almost throughout the year, high cash income, low risk of animal damage and theft. Keywords : Tea out growers, Gumero, Wush Wush, Relative Severity Index, constraints DOI: 10.7176/DCS/11-6-02 Publication date: June 30 th 2021