Input-output Model Research Articles

Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input–output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.

Promoting Sustainability: Collaborative Governance Pathways for Virtual Water Interactions and Environmental Emissions

This study explores the water consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Yarkand River Basin, focusing on their dynamic interactions across industrial sectors. Utilizing environmental input–output analysis (IOA), the CROPWAT model, and life cycle assessment (LCA), we quantified the historical evolution of physical and virtual water cycles in relation to the water–carbon nexus. Our findings reveal that the planting industry, particularly the production of export-oriented, water-intensive crops like cotton, significantly contributes to both blue and green water consumption, exacerbating regional water scarcity. The persistent external market demand drives this over-extraction, further strained by the basin’s limited water retention capabilities. Although advancements have been made in reducing the per-unit water footprint of crops, total water consumption continues to rise due to agricultural expansion, intensifying pressure on blue water resources. Additionally, agricultural GHG emissions have surged, driven by increased electricity consumption, heavy fertilizer use, and escalating soil N2O emissions. In light of these challenges, our research underscores the critical need for integrated resource management strategies that align with sustainable development goals. By promoting efficient water allocation within the agricultural sector and diversifying crop structures downstream, we can enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce environmental degradation. Furthermore, the advancement of value-added agricultural processing and the implementation of innovative water conservation technologies are essential for fostering economic sustainability. These strategies not only mitigate the environmental impacts associated with agricultural practices but also strengthen the region’s adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and fluctuating market demands. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable agricultural practices, emphasizing the interconnectedness of water management, climate resilience, and economic viability in arid regions.

Towards net-zero operating in neurosurgery

Background The climate crisis is one of the greatest threats to public health and surgery is a significant contributor to carbon emissions generated by the NHS. In this paper, we describe our experience of sustainable operating by using evidence-based methods to reduce our carbon footprint across three neurosurgical theatres during our ‘Green operating day’. Methods The Green operating day was run at a single site over a 12-hour operative day and included 10 neurosurgical cases. Following discussions with the theatre, anaesthetic and sustainability team, each operative case was reviewed and changes in the consumables, surgical instruments and utilities recorded. Carbon footprint was calculated using an environmentally extended input-output model for baseline and Green operating day. Qualitative data was collected on the participants of the Green operating day to assess attitudes and behaviours towards sustainability in neurosurgery. Results There was a total reduction of carbon emissions by 31%, equivalent to 1.04 tonnes CO2e. Reductions were seen across different aspects of surgery including anaesthetics, surgical instruments, waste and utilities. Discussion This study demonstrates the feasibility of carbon footprint reduction within neurosurgical theatres which was not associated with increases in operative duration or adverse patient outcomes. This study advocates for environmentally conscious decision making in neurosurgical procedures.

Uncertainty in dynamic econometric input-output models: a Norwegian case study

Input-output models used for macroeconomic impact and policy analysis are often characterised by large data sets and resource-heavy computing. However, the types of results they provide are sensitive to uncertainty in their core assumptions. Various approaches have been proposed to account for the uncertainty in one or more parts of the analysis assumptions. Although it is standard practice to include varied cases in policy analysis, the notion of stochasticity of parameters across periods of time is less widespread. Costly numerical computing and difficulty in interpreting the results complicate this approach. In this work, we adapt an environmentally-extended dynamic econometric input-output model to account for uncertainty of various kinds. We demonstrate the methodology in the case of building renovation. The results provide insight into situations where explicitly considering uncertainty as part of the analysis is useful, as well as others in which no additional information was gained from such treatment.

Quantitative assessment of PM2.5-related human health impacts at the provincial level in China and analysis of its heterogeneity affected by economic structural transformation

Rapid economic development has led to massive fossil energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants such as PM2.5, which have severely impacted human health and the environment. By uncovering the primary regions and pivotal sectors of PM2.5-related human health impacts (PM2.5-HHI) and evaluating the influence of economic structural factors on them, we can facilitate a more targeted strategy for managing PM2.5 pollution sources. This study employs a structural decomposition analysis method based on input–output analysis to evaluate the impact of China’s provincial economic structural transformation and changes in final demand on PM2.5-HHI in the years 2012, 2015, and 2017. Results indicated that PM2.5-HHI is primarily concentrated in economically developed provinces (e.g., Shandong and Guangdong), which is compared to Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Hebei experienced negative growth in PM2.5-HHI during 2007–2017. The production-based PM2.5-HHI is primarily driven by energy-intensive sectors such as the production and distribution of electric power and heat power. By contrast, the building sector is key to driving consumption-based PM2.5-HHI. An increasing number of regions are reducing PM2.5-HHI by implementing production structure changes. Moreover, the driving effect of production structure changes on PM2.5-HHI growth is strengthening in Beijing and Tianjin. Changes in the final demand structure mainly led to the growth of PM2.5-HHI in areas with higher economic development levels, such as Beijing and Shandong, but this driving effect is weakening. The final demand–driven PM2.5-HHI shows an evolutionary trend of an increasing share driven by fixed capital formation and exports and a decreasing share driven by household consumption. Changes in emission intensity play a key role in decreasing PM2.5-HHI in each region. Alternatively, changes in the structure of emission sources have a relatively minor impact on PM2.5-HHI. To mitigate PM2.5-HHI, regional economic and resource endowment advantages should be used to promote regional coordinated development and strengthen green production-process innovation in energy-intensive industries. Meanwhcile, it is necessary to optimize urban construction planning and improve the energy efficiency of buildings.

How do Carbon Emissions Spillovers Reshape Metal Market Dynamics? Time– Frequency Insights on Precious and Non-precious Metals

Global disruptions, such as health crises and geopolitical tensions, significantly impact both climate and commodity dynamics. This study, well-grounded on environmental finance theory, input–output modelling, socio-transition philosophy and behavioural finance perspectives, explores the evolving interactions between carbon emissions (CE) and metal markets during COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war (RUW). The study uses time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) technique to evaluate time and frequency varying connectedness between CE and metal markets from 3 January 2020 to 28 June 2024. During the COVID-19 pandemic, initial connectedness among selected markets peaked at 85%, averaging 46%, highlighting a significant CE–metal nexus that necessitates strategic responses. In the RUW period, connectedness averaged 47.82%. CE influence metal markets primarily in the short term. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals that palladium and platinum are highly sensitive to CE over the long term, while gold and silver may serve as effective diversifiers and hedges against carbon-related risks in metal investments. The study is relevant for investors in the metal sector with environmental considerations. JEL Classifications: G110, Q430, L720

The economic impacts of living habitat changes in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay

Living habitats support ecologically and commercially important species but are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The populations of two living habitats in the Chesapeake Bay, Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) and Eelgrass (Zostera marina), are depleted compared to historical levels, but recent Oyster restoration efforts have created new reef habitat and enhanced existing Oyster reefs. Other animals (e.g., commercially important fish and invertebrates) consume organisms that associate with these living habitats, suggesting the regional economies that rely on the commercial fishing industry may be impacted by changes in living habitat coverage. Ecosystem models were developed for two rivers that have undergone Oyster restoration in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, and simulations were conducted to estimate the potential influence that changes to living habitats may have on commercial fisheries harvests. Additionally, commercial fishers were interviewed to document expenditures needed to link ecological model estimates to an economic input-output model via IMPLAN that estimated the regional economic impacts of these changes. Increases to Oyster and Eelgrass populations are predicted to enhance commercial fisheries populations and in turn, harvests, while decreases to living habitats are predicted to have negative effect on fisheries harvests. The driving factor behind landed value trends is changes with the lucrative Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery. The primary expenses of watermen are repairs/maintenance, fuel, and bait, but greater than 37 % of the annual revenue is retained as proprietor and crew income. Oyster reef restoration alone is predicted to increase the regional economic impact of the commercial fishing industry by $1.1 M yr-1 and support 12 more full-time jobs at the end of a 20-year simulation. Oyster restoration in combination with a continued decline of Eelgrass led to a negligible increase (∼$150 K yr-1) in the regional economic impact. Eelgrass restoration to the current management goal without the influence of Oyster restoration is anticipated to elevate the regional economic impact to $16.8 M yr-1 and 152 full-time jobs, and smaller increases to the Eelgrass population, relative to current levels, will still have a positive impact on the regional economy. Combined Oyster and Eelgrass restoration are predicted to enhance economic impacts to the greatest extent, while continued Eelgrass decline is likely to minimize these benefits.

Global Freight Transport Emissions Responsibility.

The transportation of freight by land, sea and air underpins the complex network of global trade in physical commodities. Greenhouse gas emissions from freight transportation are a significant component of global emissions and are predicted to grow in coming decades. However, the inclusion of freight transport in emissions accounts and environmental impact studies is often incomplete. Both data availability and difficulties in allocating freight emissions to specific commodity trades contributes to this. In this study, international freight movements by transport mode are estimated from the bottom-up by imputing global freight transport routes. Emissions are estimated from these freight movements and integrated with a global multiregional input-output model. This enables the calculation of carbon footprints that are complete with respect to freight emissions. We estimate that global freight transport emissions contributed 2.8 Gt CO2-equiv in 2012, or about 41% of total transport emissions. In general, freight footprints contribute about 9% to national emissions footprints. While trade in physical commodities (such as construction materials, food and fossil fuels) are associated with the largest embodied freight emissions, services (such as public administration, education and health) also require significant freight transport. Using a consumption-based allocation of freight transport emissions allows the decarbonisation of other sectors to be complementary to the decarbonisation of transport through reduction in demand, for example through material efficiency strategies. To drive decarbonisation in maritime transport it is critical to include bunker emissions in national emissions inventories, thereby completing the system boundary.

The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Chinas Exports and Suggestions on Countermeasures

The European Parliament plans to gradually introduce the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in 2023, with a complete implementation set for 2026. As an essential trading partner of the EU, China will shoulder an additional carbon border tariff due to the lack of low-carbon technology and the dependence on extensive development patterns. These extra costs will undermine the profit margins of Chinas carbon-intensive industry sectors, possibly resulting in decreased exports and a restructuring of production. The latest estimate of the exact costs of Chinas embedded carbon exports to the EU is a problem that has received limited academic attention. Using the IPCC carbon emission accounting methodology and non-competitive single-region input-output analysis, this research precisely measures the embedded carbon in Chinas exports to the EU for the nine most affected industries. Furthermore, this study quantifies the impact of the CBAM on Chinas exports of these nine industry sectors. The findings suggest that China should improve the domestic carbon emission trading system and take the initiative to participate in formulating a carbon pricing consultation and dialogue mechanism, mitigating the negative impact of the EU CBAM on exports.

Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America

South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external trade of nine major South American countries, tracing the emission flows from their origins to final consumers and analyzing the socio-economic drivers behind these patterns. Our analysis reveals that regions bearing heavier burdens of energy-intensive production often face exacerbated economic disparities. Trade-related emissions are embodied in heavy industry and transportation, and the share of emissions attributable to developing countries is continuously climbing. Brazil is the sole net-exporter of emissions, while Colombia has become a significant net importer. Energy intensity offsets the increase in carbon emissions caused by per capita consumption, especially in Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia experiences an increase in emissions due to its energy structure, whereas a general trend towards decreasing emissions is noted elsewhere. The impact of the industrial chain is mainly domestic and extends forward along the supply chain. Interestingly, the consumption structure reduces emissions in Argentina and Bolivia, but increases them in other countries. Key emission mitigation initiatives include Brazil enhancing its leadership in bioenergy, Chile intensifying the development of green industrial chains for high-emission sectors, and Uruguay advancing its wind energy projects to increase clean energy exports, etc. These measures could facilitate targeted and effective decarbonization while promoting equitable and sustainable economic development across South America.

The resilience and determinants of global mineral resource supply chains: a network percolation perspective

Mineral resources are the basic materials for global economic development. Assessing mineral resource supply chain resilience is an important pillar of mineral resource supply chain stability management. The globality, heterogeneity and complexity of supply chain bring challenges to the resilience assessment of global mineral resource supply chain. To solve this problem, a method based on multi-region input-output model, network percolation model and econometric model is proposed, which is able to measure the resilience of global mineral resource supply chain and its influencing factors from the perspective of the whole system. The percolation phase transition is introduced to measure the critical state of global mineral resource supply chain system collapse facing external disruption. Using the proposed method, this paper conducts an empirical study on the evolution of global mineral resource supply chain resilience from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the resilience of global mineral resource supply chain declined by 39.6% in 2005–2014. Most of the critical links that caused the collapse of the global mineral resource supply chain network are the manufacturing sector and its upstream and downstream sectors. The structure of supply chain network plays a key role in network resilience. Increasing the number of linkages in upstream and downstream could improve network resilience, but the increase of linkage strength would deteriorate network resilience.

Innovation and application of inter-provincial carbon emission transfer accounting model in China’s domestic production network

The New Development Paradigm will result in the significant development of domestic production networks and the accelerated growth of carbon transfers among provinces in China. However, the existing value chain or the trade of intermediate goods decomposition method cannot completely account for the carbon content of intermediate goods. So the paper developed a accounting model for inter-regional intermediate goods trade based on input-output model. The most significant advantage of this accounting model is that by further decomposing final output into three components—final consumption within the region, final consumption flowing to other regions, and final output flowing to other regions as intermediate goods that are not returned to the region—it achieves a more comprehensive decomposition of the value chain in comparison to the established models. This approach allows for the tracking of longer value chains and the accounting for intermediate goods inflows and outflows simultaneously. Furthermore, the accounting of trade in intermediate goods can be conducted for any number of countries, regions, and sectors within the input-output system, thereby providing a foundation for the comprehensive accounting of inter-regional carbon transfers within production networks. With the input-output tables and carbon emission inventories from the CEADs (the China Carbon Emissions Accounting Database), the paper has calculated the changes of the carbon transfer among provinces in the China’s domestic production network from 2012 to 2017 and find that the inter-provincial intermediate goods trade and carbon transfer among provinces is increasing significantly. Each province has a strong incentive to overuse the carbon embodied in the intermediate goods from others, but lacks the motivation to reduce their own carbon emission. In the inter-provincial transfer of the carbon content of intermediate goods in China’s domestic production network, the difference between the average value of the ratio of the carbon content of intermediate goods from other provinces used by each province and that supplied for use by other provinces to the ratio of the carbon content of intermediate goods produced by itself increased by 13.6% between 2012 and 2017. Only a few provinces are evolving towards a win-win between economic and environmental benefits, while most are still facing the evolutionary dilemma in choosing between economic and environmental benefits. In the future, we should comprehensively explore the cooperative governance of carbon emission reduction in the domestic production network, including establishing a national standard for calculating the carbon transfer in domestic production network, improving the carbon emission responsibility sharing mechanism and carbon emission reduction compensation systems.

An Input–Output Analysis for the Economic Potential of a New Convergence Industry: A Focus on the Autonomous Vehicle Sector in South Korea

While it is crucial to grasp the economic potential in emerging convergence industries in order to develop effective policies and strategies for digital transformation, evaluating the potential is still challenging. This study develops a novel input–output model suitable for analyzing the economic potentials of subsectors in a new convergence industry. Furthermore, this research quantitatively assessed the economic potential of three sectors—components, vehicles, and services—within the autonomous vehicle industry in South Korea using the method newly proposed by this study and contrasted the results with those obtained from a traditional approach. It is found that the experimental approach introduced in this study can capture both the inter-sectoral relationships within the emerging convergence industry and its fundamental characteristics related to other sectors. As an empirical result, the autonomous vehicle service sector is found to drive the highest level of increase in production and labor for other industries. The vehicle sector has relatively high forward and backward-linkage effects, functioning as both supply and demand across the value chain of the autonomous vehicle industry. It also shows that the components sector has a relatively higher ripple effect on industries related to the infrastructure of autonomous vehicles, such as maintenance and energy fields. To rapidly establish an autonomous vehicle ecosystem and enhance its economic impact at the national level, it is essential to develop a “Soft Power” corresponding service sector. Consequently, the implementation of supportive and market-driven policies in this area is imperative.

Visualising trade-related virtual urban land transfers in China

ABSTRACT As a type of environmental footprint, the concept of virtual land captures the indirect land use embedded in our consumption and trade activities. Utilising the environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model (EEMRIO) and Kaleidoscope diagram, we visualise for the first time the interprovincial flow of virtual urban land in China. It unveils the intricate urban network connections and the telecoupled interactions between human activities and land use amidst China's rapid urbanisation phase. The results indicate that the eastern region of China emerges as the primary net beneficiary of virtual urban land, whereas the western region stands as the principal net contributor. The local urban land in 65% of the provinces suffices for their own consumption demands. However, provinces like Zhejiang, Henan, and Jiangsu rely heavily on inter-provincial urban land to fulfil their consumption requirements. Inter-regional trade plays a pivotal role in facilitating the flow of land resources, significantly easing the strain between human demands and land availability in the developed coastal provinces of eastern China. Yet, it imposes additional ecological pressure on the more ecologically vulnerable areas in the west. The insights from this research are poised to offer valuable guidance for the Chinese government in harmonising urban development strategies, industrial distribution and the allocation of construction land on a national scale.

Examining changes in household carbon footprints across generations in the UK using decomposition analysis

AbstractTo meet climate targets, consumption‐based household emissions need to fall rapidly. An important but still poorly understood question is whether generational change could contribute to decreases in emissions. It is sometimes assumed that younger generations such as Millennials and Generation Z are more concerned about climate change and have greener lifestyles than previous generations of the Silent Generation, Baby boomers, and Generation X, but carbon footprinting analysis typically focuses on age groups rather than comparing generations over time. This paper provides a first assessment of the change in consumption‐based carbon footprints of the Silent, Baby boomer, Generation X, and Millennial generations within the United Kingdom between 2001 and 2020 and a comparison of the footprints of different generational groups. The analysis is based on environmentally extended input–output analysis, using the Living Costs and Food Survey and emission data from the UK multi‐regional input–output database. We find some evidence for the hypothesis that younger generations have smaller footprints than older generations as Generation X and Millennial households have smaller carbon footprints compared to the generation before them at a similar life stage. We find that factors such as decarbonization, household occupancy, total expenditure, and changing consumption patterns contribute to the UK's changing carbon consumption emissions between 2001 and 2020, and the importance of these factors varies for different generational groups. However, future research that uses a longer time series is required to assess generational differences in carbon footprints over the whole lifespan of several generations.

Building Representative State Groupings in an Input-Output Model for the Development of an Economic Impact Calculator for Nutrition Incentive Programs

Eating a diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduction in the risk of chronic diseases such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, asthma, depression, and mental illness, yet few low-income adults meet these recommendations. Nutrition incentive programs have emerged over the last decade to offer incentives to food-insecure households to purchase more fruits and vegetables. Although the goal of the program is to increase the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, defenders of nutrition incentive programs increasingly want to document economic impacts of their programs but often lack the resources to do so. Rather than these programs spending their scarce resources on conducting studies, this research created a rigorous, yet easy to use tool that U.S.-based practitioners operating nutrition incentive programs can use to estimate the economic impact of their programs, including incentive redemptions at both farm-direct and brick-and-mortar businesses.

Economic and environmental impacts of the shifts to electromobility in Spain: A multiregional input–output framework

AbstractThe decarbonization of transport is a key goal facing climate change. The electrification of the powertrain for passenger cars is part of this goal to reduce carbon emissions. This involves a big change in the global supply chain, specifically in countries with a high weight of the traditional automotive sector, such as Spain, where above 10% of the GDP comes from this industry. There is a forecasted shift from the sector of traditional automotive parts to the electric sector, where batteries and electric components will be the major part of the powertrain. This work evaluates socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the changes in the car industry from the ramp‐up of the electric vehicles market in Spain, and also in the European Union and the rest of the world. To do it, we use an environmentally extended multiregional and multi‐sectoral input–output model. Our simulations include the technological change and demand shifts estimated to achieve the penetration of electric vehicles up to 2030 and 2050. The results show significant impacts on employment and economic indicators by 2050, when the share of electric vehicles is expected to increase up to a relevant level.

Examining global biodiversity accounts: Implications of aggregating characterization factors from elementary flows in multi‐regional input–output analysis

AbstractExtending multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) models with spatially explicit life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models allows practitioners to quantify biodiversity impacts at every step of global supply chains. Inconsistencies may be introduced, however, when high‐resolution characterization factors (CFs) are aggregated so as to match the low spatial granularity of MRIO models. These aggregation errors are greater when CFs are aggregated via proxies, such as ecoregion land shares, instead of based on spatially explicit elementary stressor flows. Here, we describe our approach to tailoring application‐specific CFs for use in MRIO studies. We apply a global agricultural production model, Spatial Production Allocation Model (MapSPAM), with the LCIA database, LC‐IMPACT, to create crop‐specific national CFs. We investigated i) if the differing aggregation approaches and the increased spatial explicitness of the constructed CFs deviate substantially from those in LC‐IMPACT, and ii) what the resulting consequences for national production and consumption‐based biodiversity footprints are when combining the tailor‐made CFs with the EXIOBASE MRIO model. For the year 2020, we observe an increase in global production‐based biodiversity impacts of 23.5% for land use when employing crop‐specific CFs.

BEFORE NBER: WARREN NUTTER’S SOVIET RESEARCH AT THE CIA

Warren Nutter’s work as director of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Soviet growth project is his best-known contribution to economics and public affairs. Many histories of Sovietology note the oddity of Nutter’s selection as project director, given his apparent lack of prior experience studying the Soviet Union. This paper provides new context for Nutter’s selection to lead the NBER effort. From 1951 to 1952 Nutter was the acting chief of the Economic Capabilities Branch of the CIA’s Office of Research and Reports (ORR), and chairman of the Economic Analysis Subcommittee of the interagency Economic Intelligence Committee. In this capacity he managed at least three major research efforts, including an input-output analysis of the Soviet Union and contributions to two national intelligence estimates. Nutter may have been proposed as director of the NBER project by Robert Amory, the Deputy Director of Intelligence, in 1953. Nutter’s research for the CIA cultivated new analytic capacities for the agency and provided a foundation for his own work on the Soviet Union.

Ecological unequal exchange: Evidence from imbalanced cropland soil erosion and agricultural value-added embodied in global agricultural trade

The cropland soil erosion (CSE), a major driver of land degradation and water pollution, is directly caused by agricultural production processes driven by food demand in a globalized food market. However, it is essential to determine what role global trade and agricultural value chains play in regional CSE, especially when imbalanced erosion is embodied in global agricultural trade. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil and Water Loss Equation and the Environment Expanded Multi Region Input-Output Model were used to quantify the global distribution of CSE and the value added in global agricultural value chains to identify trade imbalances. We introduce the Local Environmental Coefficient, the Regional Environmental Coefficient, and the Agricultural Trade Environment Inequality (AEI) index, which were used to analyze the overall and bilateral inequalities in agricultural trade among the world’s regions. The results showed that 34.65 % of the global CSE was embodied in international trade, whereas the ratio of the value added was 30.80 %. The global trade in agricultural products is generally unbalanced, as indicated by the AEI index of developed regions such as Norway and Japan, which is more than 30 times higher than that of regions such as China and Brazil, and more than 20 times higher than the global average. In terms of bilateral trade, China, the United States, and Brazil face more prominent imbalances in their international trade. Major agricultural producers generally bear more environmental costs with less value-added benefits in trade. This study quantifies, for the first time, the implied imbalances of CSE transfer in agricultural trade. Global ecological governance thus requires accountability from all regions, especially in an era of increasing globalization of agricultural trade. Timely adoption of ecological compensation and technology transfer for both large agricultural producers and less-developed regions are key to achieving sustainable global agricultural production.