Innovative Methodological Framework Research Articles

Using Visual Basic for Applications to Implement Markov Analysis in Market Share Forecasting

Objective: This paper is an examination of the use of Markov analysis in market share prediction, and the use of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to increase the speed and precision of the computation and model. Theoretical Framework: The Markov analysis, used to predict future states from current transitions, sheds light on the consumer behavior and brand loyalty dynamics With VBA, the data processing can be automated, and transition matrices built that are dynamic, so that forecasts can be updated in real time. Method: Markov analysis is based on transition matrices, which define the probabilities of transitioning from one state to another. These matrices are then used to predict long term probabilities by raising the transition matrix to some power that is equal to the number of future steps being studied. Results and Discussion: By utilizing Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), the study facilitates the swift creation of transition matrices and enables real-time modifications in response to new data. This implies that with the use of VBA and Markov analysis, not only is the forecasting process made easier, but also more accurate predictions are made, and for that reason VBA should be one of the tools that any firm looking to maximize its market share strategies should employ. Research Implications: This capability results in a more flexible and responsive forecasting instrument, enhancing the overall adaptability of market share predictions. Originality/Value: The originality of this research is found in its innovative methodological framework that builds upon conventional Markov analysis.

Analysis of the Creep Mechanism of Low-Alloy Steel in Terms of Plastic Deformation

AbstractAs the proportion of renewable energy sources within the energy grid increases, boiler operations increasingly rely on managing disparities in energy supply. This condition substantially curtails their operational lifespan due to frequent switching cycles. Materials exposed to prolonged stress at high temperatures in harsh environments gradually degrade and eventually fail catastrophically. Thus, understanding processes like creep is essential for accurately evaluating the condition of operational components under new operational standards in power plants. In this regard, this paper introduces an innovative methodological framework for analyzing the creep mechanism, focusing on the plastic deformation of a crucial pipeline segment, specifically an elbow composed of 14MoV6-3 steel, both before and after extensive usage periods (164,000 and 302,000 h). The study explored the development of microstrain from the material's surface employing the electron backscattered diffraction method. This analysis assessed how operational durations influence dislocation structural changes, as examined by synchrotron radiation techniques, across a material depth from 0 to 1.5 mm. Based on these observations, the extent of deformation over time was demonstrated. Furthermore, the evolution of precipitation processes was investigated through transmission electron microscopy. These tests allowed to obtain and compare information on the dislocation structure of the tested steel after service in creep conditions, of small and large volumes of material.

The convergence of IoT and sustainability in global supply chains: Patterns, trends, and future directions

This study investigates the pivotal role of Internet of Things (IoT) applications in advancing sustainable supply chains through a comprehensive analysis of research trends, international collaborations, and thematic evolution. Utilizing data from the Web of Science database, the research employs an innovative methodological framework combining keyword network analysis, country collaboration networks, and thematic mapping. The study reveals seven distinct keyword communities, highlighting the dominance of enabling technologies and the emergence of sector-specific applications. Analysis of international collaborations identifies five country clusters, each with unique research foci and collaborative patterns. The thematic map and evolution analysis uncover critical research gaps, including underexplored areas such as security in IoT-enabled supply chains and the integration of smart city concepts. The study projects future research directions, emphasizing the convergence of artificial intelligence and IoT, and the need for more holistic approaches to sustainability in supply chain management. The findings underscore the potential of IoT to foster sustainable business models that balance economic, social, and environmental benefits. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on IoT applications in sustainable supply chains by providing a multifaceted analysis of the field’s structure, evolution, and future trajectory. The insights offered are valuable for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners seeking to leverage IoT for creating more efficient, resilient, and sustainable supply chains in an increasingly globalized and environmentally conscious market.

Effect of Technical NTMs on Indian Exports to ASEAN: What Role Do Logistics and Governance Capabilities Play?

Technical non-tariff measures (NTMs) represent a commonly employed set of trade policy tools with well-documented implications for international trade. However, this study seeks to delve deeper into the underlying factors shaping these trade effects, focusing specifically on Indian exports to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study posits that domestic institutional and infrastructural conditions play a pivotal role in influencing the impact of regulatory measures such as technical NTMs. By leveraging logistics and governance indicators to assess these conditions, the research adopts a novel two-stage analysis approach. Initially, the study quantifies the trade effects of technical NTMs, which subsequently serve as the dependent variable in the second stage. The findings uncover nuanced patterns specific to indicators and NTM categories, with a notable emphasis on the significance of importer (ASEAN) indicators over exporter (India) indicators. Moreover, this article introduces an innovative methodological framework that transcends conventional analyses of technical NTMs, aiming to pinpoint the precise factors driving their effects for targeted improvement strategies.

Participação social e justiça da mobilidade no Brasil

Abstract In the pursuit of more sustainable and just mobilities, academic debates have regarded public participation as a fundamental component in transport and mobility planning. However, little has been discussed about the role of participation in mobility justice in the Global South, where mobilities are not always fair and inclusive. Against this backdrop, this paper adopts an innovative theoretical and methodological framework to investigate the practices, dynamics, and significance of participation within and outside state-led mobility planning in Brazil. The findings from Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre provide evidence of a range of spaces for participation and their importance in combating mobility injustices in informal settlements.

Unveiling the frontiers: Historical expansion and modern implications of agricultural land use in Denmark

This study offers a first-of-its-kind investigation into the spatial and temporal transformation of agricultural land use and expansion in crops and livestock at national scale during the middle and latter half of the 19th century.We introduce an innovative methodological framework that combines historical data with advanced spatial analysis to trace and map the evolution of frontiers of agricultural land use changes, illustrating Denmark's agricultural evolution towards the modern era.Our research uncovers critical shifts in cropland, grazing land, and livestock density offering unprecedented insights into the mechanisms driving agricultural expansion and intensification. The mechanisms driving this expansion and their potential impact on contemporary agroecological challenges linked to land use intensification are explored. Our results point to a significant broadening and shifting of land use frontiers offering a historical perspective on agricultural land use. This sets the stage for promoting the analysis of drivers of change and gaining insights into how landscape development could be steered into an environmentally and societally more desirable and sustainable direction tackling present-day agroecological challenges.

Eco-innovative development of industrial ecosystems based on the quintuple helix

This article explores how eco-innovation practices are integrated into different industrial ecosystems in different national and regional contexts, and the role of the quintuple helix model in this integration. The research examines the collaborative interaction of academia, industry, government, civil society, and the natural environment in fostering an integrated eco-innovation ecosystem. The findings underscore the central role of the Quintuple Helix framework in effectively managing eco-innovation, suggesting a comprehensive approach that integrates environmental and societal concerns into a dynamic system for sustainable progress. The study shows that an ecosystem-based approach, underpinned by the quintuple helix, facilitates the rapid exchange of knowledge and resources essential to overcoming eco-innovation challenges, such as high R&D expenditures and the complex integration of sustainable technologies. The quintuple helix model emerges as a strategic imperative for concerted action to achieve eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness. The study employs an innovative methodological framework based on Quintuple Helix projections using the Eco-Innovation Index (Eco-IS) and highlights significant trends in the roles of academia, industry, government, civil society, and the natural environment in eco-innovation, with a particular focus on their contributions to eco-innovation leaders, average performers, and catching-up groups. The article describes the different roles and interdependencies of the actors within the ecosystem and urges a coherent, networked strategy for managing eco-innovation, which is crucial for sustainable and responsible growth. Acknowledging the issue of externalities that complicate eco-innovation management, the article posits that the quintuple helix framework can better address these challenges by enabling shared R&D investments and broad diffusion of innovations. This research contributes to the discourse on sustainable industrial development by proposing the quintuple helix as a transformative model for improving eco-innovation performance and fostering a culture of sustainability.

Modeling the feasibility of Se-rich corn cultivation in Se-deficient agricultural fields using random forest algorithm.

Selenium constitutes an essential trace element for the human body. Moderate Se intake plays a pivotal role in preserving overall health. The absorption of Se by plants is primarily influenced by the available Se levels in soils, rather than by the soil total Se content, offering potential for exploring Se-rich crops in Se-deficient regions. In this study, we explore the factors influencing the Se bioaccumulation coefficient in corn based on a land quality geochemical survey at a 1:50,000 scale and establish predictive models for corn seed Se content using random forest and multiple linear regression approaches. The results indicate that the surface soil in the study area is deficient in Se (0.18-1.21mg/kg), but 54% of the corn grain samples met the standards for Se-rich products (0.02-0.30mg/kg). The factors influencing the Se biological enrichment coefficient in corn seeds are soil pH and CaO and MgO content, with impact levels of 0.54, 0.42, and 0.35, respectively. Compared to multiple linear regression models, the RF model provides more accurate and reliable predictions of corn Se content. The random forest model indicates that approximately 41% of the farmland within the study area is conducive to the cultivation of naturally Se-rich corn, which is a 26% increase in the planting area compared to recommendations based solely on soil Se content. In this research, we introduce an innovative methodological framework for organically cultivating naturally Se-rich corn within regions affected by Se deficiency.

Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process.

Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity-and related uncertainty-which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision-makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision-makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi-dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).

Analysis of Correlation between Anthropization Phenomena and Landscape Values of the Territory: A GIS Framework Based on Spatial Statistics

The evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on the landscape is an issue that has traditionally been carried out from a descriptive or at least somewhat qualitative perspective. However, in recent years, the technological improvements provided by geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial statistics have led to more objective methodological frameworks for analysis based on quantitative approaches. This study proposes an innovative methodological framework for the evaluation of landscape impacts of the usual anthropization phenomena, using a retrospective spatiotemporal analysis based on geostatistical indicators. Various territorial indices have been used to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of fragmentation of the built-up urban fabric, the construction of roads or linear communication works and the changes in land use. These phenomena have been statistically correlated with objective indicators of the landscape’s intrinsic value. The analysis of said spatial statistical correlation has been applied to three different but neighboring environments in the region of Murcia, located in the southeast of Mediterranean Spain, providing interesting results on the objective impact of each of these phenomena on the landscape and depending on the boundary conditions.

Geographies of Encounter, Public Space, and Social Cohesion: Reviewing Knowledge at the Intersection of Social Sciences and Built Environment Disciplines

This article seeks to address long-standing questions in academia, practice, and policymaking regarding the role public spaces might have in promoting cross-cultural encounters and experiences of social cohesion in socially and culturally diverse urban contexts, and what theories and methods researchers and practitioners might use to objectively evaluate this. To answer these questions, this article carries out a systematic literature review of theories and methods for studying person-environment relationships from a range of social science and built-environment disciplines. The review provides a basis for interdisciplinary knowledge exchange to develop an innovative theoretical and methodological framework that draws together key analyses of social cohesion with recent urban design literature, to hypothesize how key social dimensions that characterise intercultural encounter and their social experience of cohesion link to physical, management, and use attributes of public space design. The proposed framework provides a multi-dimensional account of how public spaces with different design approaches are connected to different experiences of social encounters, which in turn impact varied experiences of social cohesion, paving the way for new knowledge about the geographies of encounters.

Impacts of Urbanization on Drainage System Health and Sustainable Drainage Recommendations for Future Scenarios—A Small City Case in China

China is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate, but also accelerating the use of water resources and overloading of urban drainage systems. To analyze the impact of urbanization on the drainage-system health in Jinxi, a typical small case area in China, this study proposed an innovative methodological framework for evaluation and prediction based on statistical and modeling methods, which provides a demonstration and reference for urban development and drainage-system construction in developing countries. The result shows that the comprehensive urbanization index (CUI) of Jinxi shows an overall upward trend between 2009 and 2020. The drainage-system health index (DHI) shows a U-shaped trend of decreasing and then increasing, with the threshold in 2016. The years when the DHI and CUI are in balanced development occurred in 2014 and 2018. The impact of urbanization on the drainage-system health is divided into positive and negative aspects, depending on the drainage demands of the urban development. According to the predicted results, it is suggested that the next drainage upgrading measures will be favorable for sustainable urban development when the urbanization rate reaches 60%, the gross industrial output increases by 10%, or the total retail sales of consumer goods increase by 40%.

Building up a constructive relationship between law and the social sciences to investigate the “CRPD-in-action”: experiences from a descriptive study

Voting rights of persons with disabilities must be ensured by States Parties to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). The CRPD sets out legal obligations of States Parties to ensure de jure and de facto realisation of the right to vote by persons with disabilities. How can a disability researcher analyse compliance by States Parties with the CRPD? The present article argues that for achieving a fully developed disability legal scholarship, legal studies about the implementation of the CRPD need to combine the perspectives of jurisprudence and social sciences. Based on the author’s experience in carrying out the ongoing study “Voting Matters”, this article examines an innovative theoretical and methodological framework to understand how the CRPD is implemented through law and policy, and “in practice”. This means to investigate the “CRPD-in-action”. It concludes that this is a challenging task that can be accomplished through an evidence-based approach and a mixed-research design.

Estimating antimicrobial resistance burden in Europe—what are the next steps?

Estimating antimicrobial resistance burden in Europe—what are the next steps?

Integrated ANN-Bayes-based travel time prediction modeling for signalized corridors with probe data acquisition paradigm

Travel time is a major information in support of Transportation System Management and Operations (TSMO). Accurate travel time information extracted from probe data sources, which have been evolved in recently years, has led to the considerable research into travel time prediction modeling on freeways. However, little research has been reported on dealing with predicting signalized arterial travel time. It is mainly because of the natures of interrupted traffic flows along a signalized corridor or dynamic urban network, wherein varying signal timing schemes, crossing traffic, and dynamic route choices make arterial travel time estimations much more challenging than freeways. This paper presents an innovative methodological framework that can be used to integrate the exponential smoothing technique, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques and Bayes algorithms for predicting travel time along a signalized corridor. The data source obtained along the US-27 corridor in the State of Ohio, was used to test two types of the developed models, i.e., hourly instantaneous travel time prediction model and realized (or experienced) route travel time prediction model. The study results indicate that the developed models can effectively capture the travel time patterns by combining an exponential smoothing base profile and an ANN-Bayes-trained dynamic profile. In this way, more sensitive changes can be identified to a variation aroused by non-recurring congestion. The testing results with real-world travel time datasets indicates a good performance of the predicted travel time models. The most errors range from −0.608 to 0.485, which are much lower than the threshold standard deviation if 2.24 and close to 6% of mean travel time value of 9.08 min. Overall, the study results suggest that the proposed methods are capable of capturing traffic patterns even when an incident occurs by comparing with conventional methods.

Strumenti di valutazione per il case management degli interventi socio-educativi: un approccio basato sul capability framework

The case management approach in complex social-educational interventions envisages a final phase of outcome evaluation. Although crucial, the measurement of outcomes has not yet been acquired as a practice, partly because of the multidimensional nature of the needs addressed and the consequent difficulty in identifying appropriate tools. This article introduces an evaluation tool developed in the context of a project for the integrated care of vulnerable households, presenting the first results in the form of case studies. Inspired by the capability framework, the model is particularly suited to the ecosystemic approach of case management, as it can capture the complexity of beneficiaries’ needs and monitor the evolution of the different dimensions of their well-being. The experience presented in this article is significant because it introduces an innovative methodological framework for evaluating the outcomes of highly complex socio-educational interventions, which can potentially be applied in contexts other than the one analyzed.

Strategic planning of rural areas: Integrating participatory backcasting and multiple criteria decision analysis tools

In rural areas, the fostering of new development paths requires a strategic planning process characterised by several kinds of uncertainties. The existence of multiple decision makers increases the complexity of the analysis, and it is difficult to identify a solution that is acceptable to the different stakeholders. This condition requires identifying appropriate methods to involve stakeholders and to reflect their different priorities. The objective of this paper is to test the suitability of an innovative methodological framework that integrates backcasting and multiple criteria decision-making tools. Backcasting would enable planners to acquire relevant knowledge of local stakeholders, while multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods would allow prioritising the alternatives. The results of the experiment offer technical advice to outline the development strategy of a Georgian Local Action Group. After a strategic analysis of the area, the Best Worst Method and the Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) were used to prioritise the desired futures for the development of the territory and to rank the main obstacles and opportunities, while strategic actions were identified through a backcasting approach. The resulting strategy seems to reflect the vision of most of the participants and is proven to be an effective and approachable method for rural strategic planning. Nevertheless, the main strength of the approach lies in its transversality and in its applicability to face complex issues whenever different actors with different interests come into play.

The Degree of Internationalization and Firm Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Large Multinationals

AbstractThis paper examines whether the S‐shaped and M‐shaped hypotheses explain the internalization firm's productivity relationship. The internationalization–performance (I–P) literature uses accounting‐based performance indicators in order to examine such a relationship. In contrast to the mainstream literature, productivity and its components (efficiency and technical change) are used as a firm's performance measures. Utilizing a semi‐parametric model based on artificial neural network techniques, accounting for potential heterogeneity, firms’ productivity, efficiency and technical change levels are estimated. The innovative methodological framework is applied in a sample of large, experienced non‐financial firms over the period 1992–2019. The empirical evidence suggests that firms’ internationalization in relation to their productivity and efficiency levels exhibits an inverted U‐shaped relationship. This finding corresponds to the last two stages of the S‐shaped and M‐shaped hypotheses. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that internationalization has a positive nonlinear effect on firms’ innovation capacity (technical change). Overall, the empirical findings from data‐driven techniques applied, support the view that the effect of internationalization on firms’ productivity levels is asymmetric.

Diffuse Anthropization Impacts in Vulnerable Protected Areas: Comparative Analysis of the Spatial Correlation between Land Transformation and Ecological Deterioration of Three Wetlands in Spain

The management and conservation of wetlands and vulnerable protected areas of high ecological value dependent on the existence of water is complex and generally depends on the climate and rainfall in semi-arid territories such as southeastern Spain. However, one variable that is not usually considered sufficiently rigorously in this field of research is the environmental impact of the transformation of the surrounding territory due to anthropic diffuse issues. This phenomenon is not easy to appreciate, since it does not necessarily occur in the environment directly closest to protected areas and it is always difficult to measure and analyze. This study proposes an innovative spatiotemporal methodological framework to evaluate all these phenomena of diffuse anthropization whose indirect impacts on protected areas dependent on the existence of water are currently full of unknowns. Using GIS indicators, a geostatistical analysis based on the concept of the area of influence of diffuse anthropization (AIDA) is proposed to assess the spatial correlation between the anthropic transformation of the territory and the degradation of protected areas over time. The proposal has been applied with a comparative approach to three case studies located in Spain between 2000 and 2020, obtaining clarifying results on the existing spatial correlation patterns between both questions.

Methodological Framework for Resilience Assessment of Electricity Infrastructure in Conditions of Slovak Republic.

The quality of the environment as well as public health is convincingly coupled with the functioning of a power subsector. The power subsector plays a pivotal role in the sense that it emerges as the key cross-sectional element for the society’s functioning (production, services, healthcare, education and others). A modern society consists of infrastructure systems that are primarily dependent on continuous electricity supplies. Each and every element of the electric power infrastructure is unique, and thus, its malfunction can disrupt the functioning of an important part of the electric power infrastructure. In conjunction with ensuring the functioning of electric power infrastructure, our attention must be drawn to the resilience issue. As far as the resilience of electric power infrastructure is concerned, it can resist weather-related events ensuring there are no disruptions in continuous electricity supplies. First, in the introductory part, the article presents the legal framework in the Slovak Republic. Second, it describes the current state of the electric power infrastructure of Slovakia. Third, it handles the state of the level of security risk assessment. Later on, in the literature review, besides turning to the issue of resilience assessment, the authors focused on the area of resilience of power engineering. Furthermore, the article scrutinizes resilience assessment in Slovakia, and it briefly examines approaches towards natural threats. In addition, the article demonstrates several approaches towards flood resilience. Having used different methods, the primary concern is to devise a framework for resilience assessment. Therefore, the included case study examines aspects of the proposed framework for resilience assessment. In conclusion, our aim was, in most respects, to outline an innovative methodological framework for increasing the resilience of electricity infrastructure.