Injection Of Sulfate Aerosols Research Articles

The Indonesian Throughflow circulation under solar geoengineering

Abstract. The Indonesia Throughflow (ITF) is the only low-latitude channel between the Pacific and Indian oceans, and its variability has important effects on global climate and biogeochemical cycles. Climate models consistently predict a decline in ITF transport under global warming, but it has not yet been examined under solar geoengineering scenarios. We use standard parameterized methods for estimating the ITF – the Amended Island Rule and buoyancy forcing – to investigate the ITF under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and the geoengineering experiments G6solar and G6sulfur, which reduce net global mean radiative forcing from SSP5-8.5 levels to SSP2-4.5 levels using solar dimming and sulfate aerosol injection strategies, respectively. Six-model ensemble-mean projections for 2080–2100 show reductions of 19 % under the G6solar scenario and 28 % under the G6sulfur scenario relative to the historical (1980–2014) ITF, which should be compared with reductions of 23 % and 27 % under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Despite standard deviations amounting to 5 %–8 % for each scenario, all scenarios are significantly different from each other (p<0.05) when the whole 2020–2100 simulation period is considered. Thus, significant weakening of the ITF occurs under all scenarios, but G6solar more closely approximates SSP2-4.5 than G6sulfur does. In contrast with the other three scenarios, which show only reductions in forcing due to ocean upwelling, the G6sulfur experiment shows a large reduction in ocean surface wind stress forcing accounting for 47 % (38 %–65 % across the model range) of the decline in wind + upwelling-driven ITF transport. There are also reductions in deep-sea upwelling in extratropical western boundary currents.

Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering

The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost.

Widespread magmatic provinces at the onset of the Sturtian snowball Earth

The striking coincidence of the Franklin large igneous province (LIP) and the Sturtian glaciation onset ca. 717 million years ago (Ma) has inspired the hypothesis that either basaltic weathering or stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection of the Franklin LIP plunged Earth into global glaciation. The cool background climate just before the Sturtian has been commonly invoked by such initiation models. Difficulty in definitively linking these concepts with geological evidence has precluded complete demonstration of a snowball trigger mechanism. Here, we report that Franklin-aged magmatism was not only present in Laurentia and Siberia, but also in South China, where the Hubei–Shaanxi Magmatic Province formed at 720 Ma, revealing widespread magmatic provinces immediately preceding the onset of the Sturtian snowball Earth. Geochronological and geochemical data suggest that the geographically widespread magmatic provinces were emplaced over a short duration (ca. 720–717 Ma) and likely related to a mantle superplume beneath supercontinent Rodinia. We propose that low-to-mid-latitude volcanism prior to the Sturtian by a few million years enhanced global weatherability and created the background cool climate for the superimposed shock of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection of the terminal Franklin eruption. Such widespread 720–717 Ma volcanism on different continents may have driven the Sturtian snowball initiation.

Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract. Climate models simulate lower rates of North Atlantic heat transport under greenhouse gas climates than at present due to a reduction in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Solar geoengineering whereby surface temperatures are cooled by reduction of incoming shortwave radiation may be expected to ameliorate this effect. We investigate this using six Earth system models running scenarios from GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) in the cases of (i) reduction in the solar constant, mimicking dimming of the sun; (ii) sulfate aerosol injection into the lower equatorial stratosphere; and (iii) brightening of the ocean regions, mimicking enhancing tropospheric cloud amounts. We find that despite across-model differences, AMOC decreases are attributable to reduced air–ocean temperature differences and reduced September Arctic sea ice extent, with no significant impact from changing surface winds or precipitation − evaporation. Reversing the surface freshening of the North Atlantic overturning regions caused by decreased summer sea ice sea helps to promote AMOC. When comparing the geoengineering types after normalizing them for the differences in top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing, we find that solar dimming is more effective than either marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection.

Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

The Arctic is warming far faster than the global average, threatening the release of large amounts of carbon presently stored in frozen permafrost soils. Increasing Earth’s albedo by the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way of offsetting some of the adverse effects of climate change. We examine this hypothesis in respect of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks using the PInc-PanTher process model driven by seven earth system models running the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 stratospheric aerosol injection scheme to reduce radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Permafrost carbon released as CO2 is halved and as CH4 by 40% under G4 compared with RCP4.5. Economic losses avoided solely by the roughly 14 Pg carbon kept in permafrost soils amount to about US$ 8.4 trillion by 2070 compared with RCP4.5, and indigenous habits and lifestyles would be better conserved.

The Climatic Effects of Hygroscopic Growth of Sulfate Aerosols in the Stratosphere

AbstractSolar geoengineering by deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere is one of the proposed options to counter anthropogenic climate warming. In this study, we focus on the effect of a specific microphysical property of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere: hygroscopic growth—the tendency of particles to grow by accumulating water. We show that stratospheric sulfate aerosols, for a given mass of sulfates, cause more cooling when prescribed at the lower levels of the stratosphere because of hygroscopic growth. The larger relative humidity in the lower stratosphere causes an increase in the aerosol size through hygroscopic growth that leads to a larger scattering efficiency. In our study, hygroscopic growth provides an additional cooling of 23% (0.7 K) when 20 Mt‐SO4 of sulfate aerosols, an amount that approximately offsets the warming due to a doubling of CO2, are prescribed at 100 hPa. The hygroscopic effect becomes weaker at higher levels as relative humidity decreases with height. Hygroscopic growth also leads to secondary effects such as an increase in near‐infrared shortwave absorption by the aerosols that causes a decrease in high clouds and an increase in stratospheric water vapor. The altitude dependence of the effects of hygroscopic growth is opposite to that of sedimentation effects or the fast adjustment effects due to aerosol‐induced warming identified in a recent study.

Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering

AbstractThe Greenland ice sheet is expected lose at least 90% of its current volume if ice sheet summer temperatures warm by around 1.8 °C above pre‐industrial. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection might slow Greenland ice sheet melting and sea level rise by reducing summer temperature and insolation; however, such schemes could also reduce precipitation and affect large‐scale climate drivers such as the Atlantic Meridional Over‐turning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier work found that AMOC increased under geoengineering and that might lead to greater mass loss from Greenland than under greenhouse gas forcing alone. We simulated Greenland ice sheet climates using four Earth system models running the stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection experiment GeoMIP G4 and the CMIP RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios that were then used to drive the surface energy and mass balance model, SEMIC. Simulated runoff is 20% lower under G4 than RCP4.5, while under RCP8.5 it is 17% higher. The mechanism is through increased Arctic sea ice concentration and reduced humidity leading to surface cooling of the ablation zone. Reduced absorption of outgoing longwave radiation caused by hydrological cycle weakening dominates associated decreases in precipitation under geoengineering and stronger AMOC than under RCP4.5. An ice dynamics model simulates 15% lower ice losses under G4 than RCP4.5. Thus, total sea level rise by 2070 from the Greenland ice sheet under G4 geoengineering is about 15–20% lower than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Volcanically Triggered Ocean Warming Near the Antarctic Peninsula

Explosive volcanic eruptions are the largest non-anthropogenic perturbations for Earth’s climate, because of the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This causes significant radiation imbalances, resulting in surface cooling for most of the globe. However, despite its crucial importance for Antarctic ice sheet mass balance, the response of the Southern Ocean to eruptions has yet to be understood. After the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, much of the Southern Ocean cooled; however, off the Antarctic Peninsula a warming of up to 0.8 °C is found in the observations. To understand the physical mechanisms associated with this counter-intuitive response, we combine observational analysis from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with the Last Millennium Ensemble (850–1850) conducted with the Community Earth System Model. These results show not only that the observed warming off the Peninsula following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption is consistent with the forced response to low-latitude eruptions but further, that this warming is a response to roughly 16% weakening of subsurface Weddell Gyre outflow. These changes are triggered by a southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere polar westerlies (∼2°latitude). Our results suggest that warming induced by future volcanic eruptions may further enhance the vulnerability of the ice shelves off the Antarctic Peninsula.

Best Scale for Detecting the Effects of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering on Surface Temperature

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a way to geoengineer climate. While swift global mean surface cooling is generally expected from tropical SAI, the regional impacts of such perturbation on near‐surface air temperature (SAT) are projected to be spatially inhomogeneous. By using existing simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario, where 5 Tg/year of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is injected into the tropical stratosphere to offset some of the warming in a midrange representative greenhouse gas concentration pathway (RCP4.5) between 2020 and 2070, we examine the regional detectability of the SAI surface cooling effect and attempt to find the best spatial scale for potential SAI monitoring. We use optimal fingerprint detection and attribution techniques to estimate the time horizon over which the SAI surface cooling effect would be detected after implementation in 2020 on subglobal scales, ranging from the near‐global in situ observational coverage down to subcontinental regions. We show that using the spatiotemporal SAT pattern across the Northern and Southern extratropics and the Tropics, and across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as averaging SATs over the whole globe robustly result in successful SAI detection within 10 years of geoengineering implementation in a majority of the included plausible geoengineering realizations. However, detecting the SAI effect on SAT within the first decade of implementation would be more challenging on subcontinental scales.

Persistent polar ocean warming in a strategically geoengineered climate

Enhancement of the Earth’s albedo through the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as an approach to offset some of the adverse effects of climate change. Here we analyse an ensemble of simulations of the twenty-first century climate designed to explore a strategic geoengineering approach. Specifically, stratospheric sulfur injections are imposed at 15° and 30° in both hemispheres with the aim to minimize the changes in surface temperature, both in the global mean and in its gradients between hemispheres and from equator to pole. The approach accomplishes these goals and reduces previously noted adverse impacts of solar radiation management, such as excessive cooling in the tropics and weakening rainfall over land. Nonetheless, hydrological responses over the North Atlantic Ocean lead to an acceleration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and to continued warming of the deep and polar oceans, particularly in the vicinity of southern Greenland. These changes could cause continued, albeit slower, cryospheric melt and global sea level rise. Our simulations demonstrate the complexity of the coupled climate response to geoengineering and highlight the need for significant advances in our ability to simulate the coupled climate system and the continued refinement of geoengineering strategies as a prerequisite to their successful implementation. Changes in the water cycle arising from a strategic geoengineering approach alter the ocean circulation and structure, according to an ensemble of simulations with an Earth System Model.

Quasi‐Additivity of the Radiative Effects of Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Injection

AbstractStratospheric sulfate aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) are the two most studied solar radiation management techniques. For the first time we combine them in a climate model to investigate their complementarity in terms of both instantaneous and effective radiative forcings. The effective radiative forcing induced by SAI is significantly stronger than its instantaneous counterpart evaluated at the top of atmosphere. Radiative kernel calculations indicate that this occurs because of a significant stratospheric warming and despite a large increase in stratospheric water vapor that strengthens the greenhouse effect. There is also a large decrease in high‐level cloudiness induced by a stratification of the upper tropopause. Our model experiments also show that the radiative effects of SAI and MCB are quasi‐additive and have fairly complementary patterns in the Tropics. This results in less spatial and temporal variability in the radiative forcing for combined SAI and MCB as compared to MCB alone.

Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering

Abstract. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in high-mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glacier volume loss for every glacier in the region using a glacier model based on surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from three Earth system models under G3, five models under G4, and six models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The ensemble projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010–2069 is equivalent to sea-level rise of 9.0 ± 1.6 mm (G3), 9.8 ± 4.3 mm (G4), 15.5 ± 2.3 mm (RCP4.5), and 18.5 ± 1.7 mm (RCP8.5). Although G3 keeps the average temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, G3 only slows glacier shrinkage by about 50 % relative to losses from RCP8.5. Approximately 72 % of glaciated area remains at 2069 under G3, as compared with about 30 % for RCP8.5. The widely reported reduction in mean precipitation expected for solar geoengineering is unlikely to be as important as the temperature-driven shift from solid to liquid precipitation for forcing Himalayan glacier change. The termination of geoengineering at 2069 under G3 leads to temperature rise of about 1.3 °C over the period 2070–2089 relative to the period 2050-2069 and corresponding increase in annual mean glacier volume loss rate from 0.17 to 1.1 % yr−1, which is higher than the 0.66 % yr−1 under RCP8.5 during 2070–2089.

Relevant climate response tests for stratospheric aerosol injection: A combined ethical and scientific analysis

AbstractIn this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then, we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection deployment overall. We then survey some of the major ethical challenges that proposed climate response tests face. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation, and informed consent as full‐scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory‐based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.

Viable and convivial technologies: Considerations on Climate Engineering from a degrowth perspective

Faced with the urgency of climate change, Climate Engineering has been framed as a fast and feasible technological solution. At the same time, however, critique against it is getting increasingly louder. This paper articulates a critical analysis of Climate Engineering technologies from a point of view situated within the degrowth discourse. In the first part two approaches discussed within the degrowth debate are presented: the concept of viability based on a biophysical perspective and the concept of conviviality based on a socio-cultural approach. In a second step formalized arguments from the point of view of applied ethics are articulated and applied to three Climate Engineering Technologies: Sulfate Aerosol Injection, Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage, and Afforestation. In a third step, an extended version of the trade-off argument about mitigation versus Climate Engineering solution is discussed from a degrowth perspective: accordingly, within the current dominant growth paradigm, climate engineering technologies might lead to reduced mitigation efforts. The paper follows the argumentative turn in applied ethics and displays a formalization of arguments that can help clarify decision-making and identify the different dimensions at stake. The paper articulates arguments against the deployment of CE technologies and advances a new version of the trade-off-argument based on a degrowth perspective. From the point of view of a degrowth-based critique of technology, the only type of Climate Engineering Technology ethically acceptable would be afforestation under specific conditions.

Initiation of Snowball Earth with volcanic sulfur aerosol emissions

AbstractWe propose that the first Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth event, the Sturtian glaciation, was initiated by the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Geochronological data indicate that the Natkusiak magmatic assemblage of the Franklin large igneous province coincided with onset of the Sturtian glaciation. The Natkusiak was emplaced into an evaporite basin and entrained significant quantities of sulfur, which would have led to extensive SO2 and H2S outgassing in hot convective plumes. The largest of these plumes could have penetrated the tropopause, leading to stratospheric sulfate aerosol formation and an albedo increase sufficient to force a Snowball. Radiative forcing was maximized by the equatorial location of the Franklin and the cool Neoproterozoic background climate, which would have lowered the tropopause height, increasing the rate of stratospheric aerosol injection. Our results have implications for understanding Phanerozoic mass extinction events, exoplanet habitability, and aerosol perturbations to the present‐day climate.

Improved aerosol radiative properties as a foundation for solar geoengineering risk assessment

AbstractSide effects resulting from the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols intended to partially offset climate change have motivated the investigation of alternatives, including solid aerosol materials. Sulfate aerosols warm the tropical tropopause layer, increasing the flux of water vapor into the stratosphere, accelerating ozone loss, and increasing radiative forcing. The high refractive index of some solid materials may lead to reduction in these risks. We present a new analysis of the scattering efficiency and absorption of a range of candidate solid aerosols. We utilize a comprehensive radiative transfer model driven by updated, physically consistent estimates of optical properties. We compute the potential increase in stratospheric water vapor and associated longwave radiative forcing. We find that the stratospheric heating calculated in this analysis indicates some materials to be substantially riskier than previous work. We also find that there are Earth‐abundant materials that may reduce some principal known risks relative to sulfate aerosols.

An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:815–833. doi: 10.1002/wcc.423This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models

Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G3 and G4 scenarios

AbstractWe analyzed output from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project for the two most “realistic” scenarios, which use the representative concentration pathway of 4.5 Wm−2 by 2100 (RCP4.5) as the control run and inject sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. The first experiment, G3, is specified to keep RCP4.5 top of atmosphere net radiation at 2020 values by injection of sulfate aerosols, and the second, G4, injects 5 Tg SO2 per year. We ask whether geoengineering by injection of sulfate aerosols into the lower stratosphere from the years 2020 to 2070 is able to prevent the demise of Northern Hemispere minimum annual sea ice extent or slow spring Northern Hemispere snow cover loss. We show that in all available models, despite geoengineering efforts, September sea ice extents still decrease from 2020 to 2070, although not as quickly as in RCP4.5. In two of five models, total September ice loss occurs before 2060. Spring snow extent is increased from 2020 to 2070 compared to RCP4.5 although there is still a negative trend in 3 of 4 models. Because of the climate system lag in responding to the existing radiative forcing, to stop Arctic sea ice and snow from continuing to melt, the imposed forcing would have to be large enough to also counteract the existing radiative imbalance. After the cessation of sulfate aerosol injection in 2070, the climate system rebounds to the warmer RCP4.5 state quickly, and thus, any sea ice or snow retention as a result of geoengineering is lost within a decade.

Could aerosol emissions be used for regional heat wave mitigation?

Abstract. Geoengineering applications by injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere are under consideration as a measure of last resort to counter global warming. Here a potential regional-scale application to offset the impacts of heat waves is critically examined. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem), the effect of regional-scale sulfate aerosol emission over California in each of two days of the July 2006 heat wave is used to quantify potential reductions in surface temperature as a function of emission rates in a layer at 12 km altitude. Local meteorological factors yield geographical differences in surface air temperature sensitivity. For emission rates of approximately 30 μg m−2 s−1 of sulfate aerosols (with standard WRF-Chem size distribution) over the region, temperature decreases of around 7 °C result during the middle part of the day over the Central Valley, one of the areas hardest hit by the heat wave. Regions more ventilated with oceanic air such as Los Angeles have slightly smaller reductions. The length of the hottest part of the day is also reduced. Advection effects on the aerosol cloud must be more carefully forecast for smaller injection regions. Verification of the impacts could be done via measurements of differences in reflected and surface downward shortwave. Such regional geoengineering applications with specific near-term target effects but smaller cost and side effects could potentially provide a means of testing larger scale applications. However, design considerations for regional applications, such as a preference for injection at a level of relatively low wind speed, differ from those for global applications. The size of the required injections and the necessity of injection close to the target region raise substantial concerns. The evaluation of this regional-scale application is thus consistent with global model evaluations, emphasizing that mitigation via reduction of fossil fuels remains preferable to considering geoengineering with sulfate aerosols.

The Climate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Injections and Implications for Addressing Climate Emergencies

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection has been proposed to counteract anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming and prevent regional climate emergencies. Global warming is projected to be largest in the polar regions, where consequences to climate change could be emergent, but where the climate response to global warming is also most uncertain. The Community Climate System Model, version 3, is used to evaluate simulations with enhanced CO2 and prescribed stratospheric sulfate to investigate the effects on regional climate. To further explore the sensitivity of these regions to ocean dynamics, a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics is run. The authors find that, when global average warming is roughly canceled by aerosols, temperature changes in the polar regions are still 20%–50% of the changes in a warmed world. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are also not canceled, which affects the regional climate response. It is also found that agreement between simulations with and without ocean dynamics is poorest in the high latitudes. The polar climate is determined by processes that are highly parameterized in climate models. Thus, one should expect that the projected climate response to geoengineering will be at least as uncertain in these regions as it is to increasing greenhouse gases. In the context of climate emergencies, such as melting arctic sea ice and polar ice sheets and a food crisis due to a heated tropics, the authors find that, while it may be possible to avoid tropical climate crises, preventing polar climate emergencies is not certain. A coordinated effort across modeling centers is required to generate a more robust depiction of a geoengineered climate.