Initial Opinion Research Articles

Case Closed? On the John F. Kennedy Assassination: Biased Assimilation of Evidence and Attitude Polarization

Vitriolic debate surrounds John F. Kennedy's (JFK's) death more than 30 years after the assassination. Whereas some endorse the official government conclusion that Oswald acted alone, others allege that some form of a conspiracy is responsible for Kennedy's death. The central thesis of this article is that due to the processes of biased assimilation and attitude polarization, personal theories about the perpetrator(s) of the assassination are essentially immutable, and therefore that the debate surrounding JFK's assassination will continue endlessly. Due to the process of biased assimilation, proponents of both the Oswald and conspiracy theories perceive the same body of evidence as supportive of their position. Biased assimilation leads to attitude polarization rather than to a moderation or reversal of existing attitudes. The results of the present study strongly support this line of reasoning. The study also examined the formation of assassination attitudes among subjects with no initial opinion. The m...

Potential influence of trust on the successful completion of a project

The temporary organisations formed in many projects create a situation in which trust between individuals is important to the successful completion of the project. Unfortunately, because the organisation is temporary, there is not time to develop long-term trust in interpersonal relationships. It is suggested that the initial opinions of the individuals entering the project are important in shaping its final outcome. The initial opinions can force the project into a spiral of increasing or decreasing trust. Methods are suggested of reversing the outcome when the initial attitude is one of mistrusting the other parties, to enable the project manager to build a more positive environment.

Information technology, informatics and pre‐service teacher training

Abstract Over the past ten years, information technology (IT) has evolved considerably and computers in schools have become increasingly commonplace in France. However, technological subjects aside, any claim that their use has become integrated into every subject would be questionable. Limiting factors do exist, such as the place of IT in curricula. In order to advise their students to use technological devices, teachers must first be convinced that it is advantageous. Teacher training in IT is therefore essential. This paper reports the results of a quantitative study, undertaken in a French University institute for teacher training (IUFM), which was conducted to ascertain students' initial knowledge and opinions regarding IT. Overall, although their level of expectations was high, the initial level of their competency was low. The integration of IT into teacher‐training thus appears problematic.

Ernest Gruening and the Tonkin Gulf Resolution: Continuities in American Dissent

On 7 August 1964, Ernest Gruening (D-Alaska) cast one of the two Senate votes against the Tonkin Gulf Resolution, later used by the Johnson administration to authorize the American military buildup in Vietnam. Those studies of the war that mention Gruening's vote gen erally argue that he opposed the resolution for reasons similar to those of its other opponent, Wayne Morse (D-Oregon). In fact, unlike Morse, Gruening adhered to dissenting ideas which had appeared only rarely since the onset of World War II, though by the later 1960s many anti war senators wound up supporting positions similar to those of Gruening in 1964; the senator's Tonkin Gulf dissent thus deserves more attention than it has received. Choosing to look beyond the Cold War mindset accepted by many of his liberal colleagues,1 Gruening instead relied upon a set of ideals best associated with left-wing foreign policy dissent of the 1920s to make his case against both the war and the overall path of American foreign policy. His initial opinions on South east Asia flowed logically from his overall foreign policy ideology, and his views need to be analyzed in a broader framework. A graduate of Harvard, Gruening trained as a doctor, but decided upon receiving his M.D. that a career in medicine did not appeal, and he turned to journalism instead. After serving as a reform editor for several Boston journals, he traveled to New York in 1921 to work at The Nation. Once there, Gruening became active attempting to end the American Marine occupation of Haiti; to investigate matters firsthand, Gruening visited Haiti in late 1921, establishing close ties with Hai tian anti-occupation leaders in the Union Patriotique and being named an honorary citizen of Port-au-Prince. He returned to the United States to publicize the ill effects of the occupation, questioning the morality and practicality of a policy that amounted to making the American military legislator, supreme judge, supreme executor; he

The Processes of Minority Influence in an Ideological Confrontation

In a situation of ideological confrontation, where the pressure for orthodoxy is very strong, a group of political militants reacts differently according to three factors: nature of the source, group consensus on the attested position, intensity of the initial opinion. Experimentation in a natural environment reveals the differentiating effects of this combination of variables.

The Anxiety of Sanctity: St Gerald of Aurillac and his Maker

Count Gerald of Aurillac (855–909) might seem rather out of place in a gallery of medieval saints: an aristocratic warrior, a great lord, Gerald seemed very much a man of this world rather than a saint in ascetic withdrawal from it. This was also the initial opinion of his biographer, who is, as far as this article is concerned, effectively his maker since we shall be dealing only with the ‘textual’ Gerald and not the historical one. This biographer, no less a figure than Abbot Odo of Cluny (879–942), began hisVitaof Gerald (c. 930) by saying that many people doubted that Gerald was a saint. The opening words of Odo'sPraefatioare quite explicit and perhaps rather surprising: ‘many people tend to doubt whether what is said about the blessed Gerald is true. And quite a lot of these people say that these stories are not only not true but fantastic.’ Originally Odo himself had not been too certain of Gerald's saintliness, though by the time he came to write the Vita he was convinced enough.2 The problem lay in convincing others.

Group polarization as conformity to the prototypical group member

Self‐categorization theory hypothesizes that group polarization arises from an intragroup process of conformity to a polarized in‐group norm, i.e. a norm more extreme than the mean of members' initial opinions but in the same direction. It argues that the in‐group norm is embodied in the prototypical response of members, which is not necessarily their average position. Polarization occurs when the prototype is more extreme than the mean in the same direction and when mutual influence leads members to conform to the norm. Convergence on the mean occurs when the prototype coincides with the mean position. Whether the prototype and the mean coincide or differ depends on whether group responses are moderate or extreme in terms of the comparative social context. A computer simulation (Study 1, N = 1000 groups) and two semi‐naturalistic group discussion studies (Studies 2 and 3, Ns = 32 and 44 groups respectively over five items) were conducted to test this analysis. All three studies found significant correlational support for the hypothesis (H1) that in‐group prototypes become more polarized as the group becomes more extreme in the social context and Studies 2 and 3 also found a significant empirical correlation (H2) between polarization and the extent to which group members conformed to a polarized prototype.

ETI, SETI and today's public opinion

During the last three decades the general public's initial opinions about ETI and SETI changed, turning ignorance, fear and superficiality into a gradual understanding of the importance of these concepts. After a brief analysis of this changing psycho-sociological attitude, the paper provides an “estimate of the situation” about general interest for ETI and SETI, suggesting a growing awareness in today's public opinion. Science fiction movies like Close Encounters of the Third Kind and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial and popular interest in UFOs as visitors from outer space played a major role in the average man's acceptance of the reality of extra-terrestrial life and its meaning for mankind.

Predicting Interpersonal Attraction from Small Samples: A Reanalysis of Newcomb's Acquaintance Study

People's liking of other people after 16 weeks of acquaintance was not predicted very well by their initial liking of the others after 1 week's acquaintance. People's ultimate liking of others was as well predicted by initial popularity, i.e., by the consensual rankings, as by the individual's own initial rankings. And people's ultimate liking was better predicted by ultimate popularity than by own initial rankings. These results were discussed in terms of the law of large numbers. Brief acquaintance is equivalent to a small sample of another person's attributes and may be well off the mark. Popularity ratings are based on the opinions of many others and constitute a larger sample; therefore they may predict one's ultimate opinion as well as or better than one's own initial opinion.

Constant-weight versus relative-weight averaging in the prediction of exam performance

Previous research showed that prediction of exam performance from information about motivation and ability of students obeys the parallelism pattern. The rule underlying the parallelism pattern was diagnosed in a series of three experiments. Experiments 1 and 2 manipulated reliability of information, and found that the greater the reliability of information, the greater its effect. In addition, the effect of information of one type was independent of the reliability of information of another type. Results agreed with the prescriptions of the constant-weight averaging rule but disagreed with those of the relative-weight averaging rule. Judgments based on information about motivation alone or ability alone further confirmed the constant-weight averaging rule but did not confirm the alternative adding rule. Since there is always a possibility of imputation about missing information, Experiment 3 paired ability information with either one or three pieces of motivation information and obtained additional evidence for the constant-weight averaging rule. Implications of the results were discussed for the presence of two separate initial opinions, one about motivation and another about ability, in subjects.

Comment: A Bayesian Approach to the Nonresponse Problem, Using Covariates à la Freedman

David Freedman has presented an ingenious and deceptively simple argument that should prove to be of value in many nonrespondent problems. I would like to discuss both the general form of the argument and the specific details from a subjective Bayesian viewpoint, as I believe the argument implicitly involves some delicate questions that are best understood from this viewpoint. The basic structure of Freedman's argument is that although he concedes in general that there may be substantial nonrespondent bias, in the present situation this can be largely ignored because of additional data, in the form of covariates representing the distributions of orders by size and by geographical residence. He does not take a formal inferential point of view, but it seems clear that his argument must be to the effect that the additional information he supplies regarding the covariates must somehow change one's initial opinions about the magnitude of the nonrespondent bias, making it in some sense more probable, given this additional data, that the nonrespondent bias is negligible or at least can be ignored. This is sufficiently close to the subjective Bayesian scenario that it may be worth examining the argument from this point of view. I shall present an informal Bayesian analysis, but one that can easily be made formal.

Third Millennium Contacts: Observations on the Relationships between Mari and Ebla

The discovery of large numbers of cuneiform texts at the Syrian site of Tell Mardikh, which turned out to be the ancient city of Ebla, created a sensation in scholarly circles as well as among the public at large. Soon after the discovery synthetic accounts of the culture of ancient Ebla, as well as scholarly publications of the tablets uncovered in that city, began to appear. Although some time has passed since the initial opinions on the social and political organization of Ebla were expressed, many of the first impressions of scholars working on these materials have not been supported by the evidence which has been available. In this study I reexamine some of these assumptions in light of the published documentation, concentrating on the chronology of the archives and on the relationships with the city-state of Mari.

How a group reaches agreement: A stochastic model

A stochastic model is presented which describes how a group of individuals might come to agree about an issue upon which the members of the group initially hold different opinions. The model allows the power of an individual to be defined in terms of the probability that he will be able to persuade the group to accept his initial opinion and shows how the power of an individual is related to the patterns of influence and communication which exist within the group. The extent to which the organisational structure of a group can affect the time taken to reach agreement is illustrated.

Analysis of Life Tables with Grouping and Withdrawals

A number of individuals is observed at the beginning of a period. At the end of the period the number is surviving, the number who have died and the number who have withdrawn are noted. From these three numbers it is required to estimate the death rate for the period. All relevant quantities are supposed independent and identically distributed for the individuals. The likelihood is calculated and found to depend on two parameters, other than the death rate, and to be unidenttifiable so that no consistent estimators exist. For large numbers, the posterior distribution of the death rate is approximated by a normal distribution whose mean is the root of a quadratic equation and whose variance is the sum of two terms; the first is proportional to the reciprocal of the number of individuals, as usually happens with a consistent estimator; the second does not tend to zero and depends on initial opinions about one of the nuisance parameters. The paper is a simple exercise in the routine use of coherent, Bayesian methodology. Numerical calucations illustrate the results.

Extreme disagreement and the expression of attitudinal freedom

Psychological reactance theory suggests that a persuasive message which is perceived as a threat to a receiver's attitudinal freedom will produce attitude change away from the recommended position. Prior research has demonstrated that the boomerang effect is prominent particularly among receivers in extreme disagreement with a persuasive message. This experiment focused on the extreme opponent and explored a method of attenuating the boomerang effect. Some subjects were given the opportunity to argue in support of their initial opinions prior to exposure to a threatening message, while others were not afforded this opportunity. It was assumed that prior bolstering would amount to an exercise of the opinion freedom to be threatened by the forthcoming message, and thereby eliminate the otherwise expected negative effects. Results strongly supported this assumption. The threat variable reduced persuasivness only among subjects who did not bolster their initial opinions. In contrast, no boomerang effect was observed among subjects given the chance to exercise their attitudinal freedom prior to exposure to a threatening message.

Bullet Residue as Distinguished from Powder Pattern

Abstract It is often necessary to determine the distance and direction from which a gun was fired at an object. This is easily accomplished by observing the position and dimensions of any powder pattern deposited. The presence of a powder pattern usually indicates a close-proximity firing. A ease involving a rifle used to fire through a window and shade on a door was presented for such a routine investigation. Contrary to the initial opinions of the investigating officer at the scene, laboratory tests showed that the pattern was not a powder pattern but instead a lead residue appearing much like a powder pattern, yet having distinctive and reproducible characteristics, These lead residues can occur at long distances from the muzzle (that is, 9 m or 30 ft) and are always present on the opposite side of the target, if it is penetrated. Information regarding the case which lead to the investigation is presented. Equipment devised to reproduce the test is described, and photographs of the patterns produced are presented. Included are points of difference between conventional powder tattooing and the lead residue observed by us. Some discussion is given to the effects of varying distances, calibers, and bullet compositions.

A method for selecting criteria to evaluate medical care.

This study tests a questionnaire method for eliciting process criteria for medical care appraisal. The questionnaire was sent to national samples of family physicians, pediatricians, and pediatricians specializing in infectious diseases asking their opinions about various clinical actions in 125 clinical situations concerning respiratory infection in infants. Five hundred twenty-four (54%) physicians returned completed questionnaires. Questionnaire responses favored the performance of a majority of actions and opposed very few. Opinions concerning individual actions, particularly diagnostic tests and treatments, varied widely depending upon the clinical situation presented. A second questionnaire sent one year later indicated that the opinions expressed in the first questionnaire remained stable over time, especially if the initial opinion favored performance of the action. Comparison of the questionnaire responses and medical records of a group of practitioners demonstrated that only 55% of actions favored in a practitioner's questionnaire appeared in his records. Although the questionnaire method appears to be a feasible, specific, and reliable means of identifying clinical opinion, there remains considerable discordance between opinion as expressed in the questionnaire and recorded clinical practice.

The Persuasive Effect of Source Credibility: Tests of Cognitive Response

Two experiments are reported identifying the circumstances in which high credibility either facilitates, inhibits, or has no effect on the communicator's persuasiveness in relation to a less credible source. These data provide support for the cognitive response view of information processing and suggest the importance of message recipient's initial opinion as a determinant of persuasion.

Misrecall of Pre-Manipulation Opinion: Repression or Recency Effect?

The misrecall of pre-manipulation opinion is a phenomenon subject to either an explanation based on motivational defensive repression or one of non-motivational self-attribution. A before-after study of persuasive communication was conducted in which all participants completed measures of defensiveness, repression, and self-racing of independence. On the basis of an hypothesis of defensive repression it was predicted that opinion changers who mistakenly report their prior opinion as close to or identical with their final opinion would score significantly higher on measures of defensiveness and repression and would rate themselves as more independent than opinion changers who correctly recall their initial opinion. None of these predicted differences occurred. The results constitute an operational disconfirmation of the defensive repression hypothesis. However, a conceptual disconfirmation of the hypothesis may require a more precise formulation of the “self-esteem theory” set of ideas from which the present hypothesis of defensive repression was derived. It is suggested that the attempt to develop such a formulation and attempts to answer the general question of the importance of ego-defensiveness might appropriately be launched from the perspective of functional theories of attitudes and belief systems.

Adenomatous tumors of the middle ear and mastoid

Three cases of middle ear and mastoid neoplasms are reported as "adenomatous tumors" since in their search of the literature the authors did not find any previously described lesions with a similar histologic appearance and benign biologic behavior. Microscopically, all three tumors are similarly composed of solid cords and nests of closely-packed small cells having an epithelial appearance. Two distinct cell types are present: cuboidal cells, arranged in a rudimentary gland-like pattern, and angular cells forming irregular nests with no distinct pattern. All three tumors developed in patients in their 20's, over a period of months with minimal symptoms; yet in all of the lesions the tympanic membrane was intact at the time of initial examination. None of the neoplasms was diagnosed preoperatively, and, once removed, all three tumors were pathologic enigmas and therapeutic problems in view of the initial and subsequent consultant pathologic opinions; nevertheless, total local excision with preservation of the tympanic membrane would appear to be safe treatment in these cases. The term "adenomatous tumor" is applied to these three neoplasms because: 1. a true glandular epithelial origin warranting the term adenoma or adenocarcinoma cannot be proven; and 2. the biologic behavior and prognosis is not necessarily reflected by the histologic appearance. A more specific term reflecting the origin and behavior of these tumors does not appear possible without the study of further cases.