Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory Research Articles

Structural and thermodynamic properties of conserved water molecules in Mpro native: A combined approach by MD simulation and Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory.

The new viral strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are continuously rising, becoming more virulent, and transmissible. Therefore, the development of new antiviral drugs is essential. Due to its significant role in the viral life cycle of SARS-CoV-2, the main protease (Mpro) enzyme is a leading target for antiviral drug design. The Mpro monomer consists of domain DI, DII, and DI-DII interface. Twenty-one conserved water molecules (W4-W24) are occupied at these domains according to multiple crystal structure analyses. The crystal and MD structures reveal the presence of eight conserved water sites in domain DI, DII and remaining in the DI-DII interface. Grid-based inhomogeneous fluid solvation theory (GIST) was employed on MD structures of Mpro native to predict structural and thermodynamic properties of each conserved water site for focusing to identify the specific conserved water molecules that can easily be displaced by proposed ligands. Finally, MD water W13 is emerged as a promising candidate for water mimic drug design due to its low mean interaction energy, loose binding character with the protein, and its involvement in a water-mediated H-bond with catalytic His41 via the interaction Thr25(OG)---W13---W---His41(NE2). In this context, water occupancy, relative interaction energy, entropy, and topologies of W13 are thermodynamically acceptable for the water displacement method. Therefore, the strategic use of W13's geometrical position in the DI domain may be implemented for drug discovery against COVID disease by designing new ligands with appropriately oriented chemical groups to mimic its structural, electronic, and thermodynamic properties.

MPI-parallelization of the grid inhomogeneous solvation theory calculation.

The grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) method requires the often time-consuming calculation of water-water and water-solute energy on a grid. Previous efforts to speed up this calculation include using OpenMP, GPUs, and particle mesh Ewald. This article details how the speed of this calculation can be increased by parallelizing it with MPI, where trajectory frames are divided among multiple processors. This requires very little communication between individual processes during trajectory processing, meaning the calculation scales well to large processor counts. This article also details how the entropy calculation, which must happen after trajectory processing since it requires information from all trajectory frames, is parallelized via MPI. This parallelized GIST method has been implemented in the freely-available CPPTRAJ analysis software.

Resolving binding pathways and solvation thermodynamics of plant hormone receptors

Plant hormones are small molecules that regulate plant growth, development, and responses to biotic and abiotic stresses. They are specifically recognized by the binding site of their receptors. In this work, we resolved the binding pathways for eight classes of phytohormones (auxin, jasmonate, gibberellin, strigolactone, brassinosteroid, cytokinin, salicylic acid, and abscisic acid) to their canonical receptors using extensive molecular dynamics simulations. Furthermore, we investigated the role of water displacement and reorganization at the binding site of the plant receptors through inhomogeneous solvation theory. Our findings predict that displacement of water molecules by phytohormones contributes to free energy of binding via entropy gain and is associated with significant free energy barriers for most systems analyzed. Also, our results indicate that displacement of unfavorable water molecules in the binding site can be exploited in rational agrochemical design. Overall, this study uncovers the mechanism of ligand binding and the role of water molecules in plant hormone perception, which creates new avenues for agrochemical design to target plant growth and development.

WaterKit: Thermodynamic Profiling of Protein Hydration Sites.

Water desolvation is one of the key components of the free energy of binding of small molecules to their receptors. Thus, understanding the energetic balance of solvation and desolvation resulting from individual water molecules can be crucial when estimating ligand binding, especially when evaluating different molecules and poses as done in High-Throughput Virtual Screening (HTVS). Over the most recent decades, several methods were developed to tackle this problem, ranging from fast approximate methods (usually empirical functions using either discrete atom-atom pairwise interactions or continuum solvent models) to more computationally expensive and accurate ones, mostly based on Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations, such as Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory (GIST) or Double Decoupling. On one hand, MD-based methods are prohibitive to use in HTVS to estimate the role of waters on the fly for each ligand. On the other hand, fast and approximate methods show an unsatisfactory level of accuracy, with low agreement with results obtained with the more expensive methods. Here we introduce WaterKit, a new grid-based sampling method with explicit water molecules to calculate thermodynamic properties using the GIST method. Our results show that the discrete placement of water molecules is successful in reproducing the position of crystallographic waters with very high accuracy, as well as providing thermodynamic estimates with accuracy comparable to more expensive MD simulations. Unlike these methods, WaterKit can be used to analyze specific regions on the protein surface, (such as the binding site of a receptor), without having to hydrate and simulate the whole receptor structure. The results show the feasibility of a general and fast method to compute thermodynamic properties of water molecules, making it well-suited to be integrated in high-throughput pipelines such as molecular docking.

A deep-learning model for grid-based solvation free energy.

In computational drug discovery, the stability of protein-ligand binding is estimated by calculating the free energy change before and after binding. However, one of the factors of the free energy change is the free energy change of water molecules around the protein (hydration free energy), which requires a huge computational cost. We focus on deep learning and aim to develop a deep learning model that can calculate the hydration free energy at high speed. In this presentation, we show the results of constructing a deep learning model based on hydration free energy data obtained by grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) and evaluating its prediction performance.

Water Network in the Binding Pocket of Fluorinated BPTI-Trypsin Complexes─Insights from Simulation and Experiment.

Structural waters in the S1 binding pocket of β-trypsin are critical for the stabilization of the complex of β-trypsin with its inhibitor bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI). The inhibitor strength of BPTI can be modulated by replacing the critical lysine residue at the P1 position by non-natural amino acids. We study BPTI variants in which the critical Lys15 in BPTI has been replaced by α-aminobutyric acid (Abu) and its fluorinated derivatives monofluoroethylglycine (MfeGly), difluoroethylglycine (DfeGly), and trifluoroethylglycine (TfeGly). We investigate the hypothesis that additional water molecules in the binding pocket can form specific noncovalent interactions with the fluorinated side chains and thereby act as an extension of the inhibitors. We report potentials of mean force (PMF) of the unbinding process for all four complexes and enzyme activity inhibition assays. Additionally, we report the protein crystal structure of the Lys15MfeGly-BPTI-β-trypsin complex (pdb: 7PH1). Both experimental and computational data show a stepwise increase in inhibitor strength with increasing fluorination of the Abu side chain. The PMF additionally shows a minimum for the encounter complex and an intermediate state just before the bound state. In the bound state, the computational analysis of the structure and dynamics of the water molecules in the S1 pocket shows a highly dynamic network of water molecules that does not indicate a rigidification or stabilizing trend in regard to energetic properties that could explain the increase in inhibitor strength. The analysis of the energy and the entropy of the water molecules in the S1 binding pocket using grid inhomogeneous solvation theory confirms this result. Overall, fluorination systematically changes the binding affinity, but the effect cannot be explained by a persistent water network in the binding pocket. Other effects, such as the hydrophobicity of fluorinated amino acids and the stability of the encounter complex as well as the additional minimum in the potential of mean force in the bound state, likely influence the affinity more directly.

Thermostabilizing mechanisms of canonical single amino acid substitutions at a GH1 β-glucosidase probed by multiple MD and computational approaches.

β-glucosidases play a pivotal role in second-generation biofuel (2G-biofuel) production. For this application, thermostable enzymes are essential due to the denaturing conditions on the bioreactors. Random amino acid substitutions have originated new thermostable β-glucosidases, but without a clear understanding of their molecular mechanisms. Here, we probe by different molecular dynamics simulation approaches with distinct force fields and submitting the results to various computational analyses, the molecular bases of the thermostabilization of the Paenibacillus polymyxa GH1 β-glucosidase by two-point mutations E96K (TR1) and M416I (TR2). Equilibrium molecular dynamic simulations (eMD) at different temperatures, principal component analysis (PCA), virtual docking, metadynamics (MetaDy), accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD), Poisson-Boltzmann surface analysis, grid inhomogeneous solvation theory and colony method estimation of conformational entropy allow to converge to the idea that the stabilization carried by both substitutions depend on different contributions of three classic mechanisms: (i) electrostatic surface stabilization; (ii) efficient isolation of the hydrophobic core from the solvent, with energetic advantages at the solvation cap; (iii) higher distribution of the protein dynamics at the mobile active site loops than at the protein core, with functional and entropic advantages. Mechanisms i and ii predominate for TR1, while in TR2, mechanism iii is dominant. Loop A integrity and loops A, C, D, and E dynamics play critical roles in such mechanisms. Comparison of the dynamic and topological changes observed between the thermostable mutants and the wildtype protein with amino acid co-evolutive networks and thermostabilizing hotspots from the literature allow inferring that the mechanisms here recovered can be related to the thermostability obtained by different substitutions along the whole family GH1. We hope the results and insights discussed here can be helpful for future rational approaches to the engineering of optimized β-glucosidases for 2G-biofuel production for industry, biotechnology, and science.

Grid inhomogeneous solvation theory for cross-solvation in rigid solvents.

Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory (GIST) has proven useful to calculate localized thermodynamic properties of water around a solute. Numerous studies have leveraged this information to enhance structure-based binding predictions. We have recently extended GIST toward chloroform as a solvent to allow the prediction of passive membrane permeability. Here, we further generalize the GIST algorithm toward all solvents that can be modeled as rigid molecules. This restriction is inherent to the method and is already present in the inhomogeneous solvation theory. Here, we show that our approach can be applied to various solvent molecules by comparing the results of GIST simulations with thermodynamic integration (TI) calculations and experimental results. Additionally, we analyze and compare a matrix consisting of 100 entries of ten different solvent molecules solvated within each other. We find that the GIST results are highly correlated with TI calculations as well as experiments. For some solvents, we find Pearson correlations of up to 0.99 to the true entropy, while others are affected by the first-order approximation more strongly. The enthalpy-entropy splitting provided by GIST allows us to extend a recently published approach, which estimates higher order entropies by a linear scaling of the first-order entropy, to solvents other than water. Furthermore, we investigate the convergence of GIST in different solvents. We conclude that our extension to GIST reliably calculates localized thermodynamic properties for different solvents and thereby significantly extends the applicability of this widely used method.

Note on the physical basis of spatially resolved thermodynamic functions

ABSTRACT The spatial resolution of extensive thermodynamic functions is discussed. A physical definition of the spatial resolution based on a spatial analogy of partial molar quantities is advocated, which is shown to be consistent with how hydration energies are typically spatially resolved in the molecular simulation literature. It is then shown that, provided the solvent is not at a phase transition, the spatially resolved entropy function calculated by first-order grid inhomogeneous solvation theory [Nguyen CN, Young TK, Gilson MK. Grid inhomogeneous solvation theory: hydration structure and thermodynamics of the miniature receptor cucurbit [7] uril. J Chem Phys. 2012;137(4):044101] satisfies the definition rigorously, whereas that calculated by grid cell theory [Gerogiokas G, Calabro G, Henchman RH, et al. Prediction of small molecule hydration thermodynamics with grid cell theory. J Chem Theory Comput. 2014;10(1):35–48] most likely does not. Moreover, for an ideal gas in an external field, the former theory is shown consistent whereas the latter is not. Finally, consistent with the proposed definition and with the case of an ideal gas in an external field, we derive an approximate expression for the solvent contribution to the free energy of solvation in the limit of infinite dilution from the spatial variation of the density around the solute.

Comparison of Grand Canonical and Conventional Molecular Dynamics Simulation Methods for Protein-Bound Water Networks.

Water molecules play important roles in all biochemical processes. Therefore, it is of key importance to obtain information of the structure, dynamics, and thermodynamics of water molecules around proteins. Numerous computational methods have been suggested with this aim. In this study, we compare the performance of conventional and grand-canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to sample the water structure, as well GCMC and grid-based inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) to describe the energetics of the water network. They are evaluated on two proteins: the buried ligand-binding site of a ferritin dimer and the solvent-exposed binding site of galectin-3. We show that GCMC/MD simulations significantly speed up the sampling and equilibration of water molecules in the buried binding site, thereby making the results more similar for simulations started from different states. Both GCMC/MD and conventional MD reproduce crystal-water molecules reasonably for the buried binding site. GIST analyses are normally based on restrained MD simulations. This improves the precision of the calculated energies, but the restraints also significantly affect both absolute and relative energies. Solvation free energies for individual water molecules calculated with and without restraints show a good correlation, but with large quantitative differences. Finally, we note that the solvation free energies calculated with GIST are ∼5 times larger than those estimated by GCMC owing to differences in the reference state.

Explicit solvation thermodynamics in ionic solution: extending grid inhomogeneous solvation theory to solvation free energy of salt\u2013water mixtures

Hydration thermodynamics play a fundamental role in fields ranging from the pharmaceutical industry to environmental research. Numerous methods exist to predict solvation thermodynamics of compounds ranging from small molecules to large biomolecules. Arguably the most precise methods are those based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in explicit solvent. One theory that has seen increased use is inhomogeneous solvation theory (IST). However, while many applications require accurate description of salt–water mixtures, no implementation of IST is currently able to estimate solvation properties involving more than one solvent species. Here, we present an extension to grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) that can take salt contributions into account. At the example of carbazole in 1 M NaCl solution, we compute the solvation energy as well as first and second order entropies. While the effect of the first order ion entropy is small, both the water–water and water–ion entropies contribute strongly. We show that the water–ion entropies are efficiently approximated using the Kirkwood superposition approximation. However, this approach cannot be applied to the water–water entropy. Furthermore, we test the quantitative validity of our method by computing salting-out coefficients and comparing them to experimental data. We find a good correlation to experimental salting-out constants, while the absolute values are overpredicted due to the approximate second order entropy. Since ions are frequently used in MD, either to neutralize the system or as a part of the investigated process, our method greatly extends the applicability of GIST. The use-cases range from biopharmaceuticals, where many assays require high salt concentrations, to environmental research, where solubility in sea water is important to model the fate of organic substances.

Prediction of local thermodynamics of water in and around endo-functionalized molecular tube receptors: An approach using grid inhomogeneous solvation theory

Water molecules in and around a receptor play a significant role in the guest/ligand binding process. Here, we discuss the waters’ role in the guest binding process of small miniature receptor endo-functionalized molecular tubes (host-1a and host-1b). We have portrayed this using classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and GIST methodology. Trajectories from MD simulation have been utilized in GIST methodology to estimate different localized thermodynamic parameters at different regions of these receptors. These small receptors reveal a surprisingly detailed solvation structure, thermodynamic pattern and offer comprehensive insights. The torus site with high water density is especially relevant within the receptor binding sites in the solvation structure. Water molecules are energetically unstable inside (i.e., torus and cavity regions) of these host molecules. This water instability offers some guest molecules extremely high binding affinities inside these host cavities. Also, we are curious to see the effect of electrostatic on these thermodynamic parameters. For this, we have used a nonpolar version of these host molecules in which all partial charges of the atomic sites of both these receptors are artificially set to zero. Every energetic and entropic solvation parameters are less perturbed for nonpolar host molecules than the corresponding regular host molecules. The water molecules inside the nonpolar host cavity are less strongly bound than the corresponding regular host molecules. Thus, the value of free energy for removing water molecules from a particular region of a purely nonpolar host molecule is more favorable than the corresponding regular host molecule.

Thermodynamic Decomposition of Solvation Free Energies with Particle Mesh Ewald and Long-Range Lennard-Jones Interactions in Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory.

Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory (GIST) maps out solvation thermodynamic properties on a fine meshed grid and provides a statistical mechanical formalism for thermodynamic end-state calculations. However, differences in how long-range nonbonded interactions are calculated in molecular dynamics engines and in the current implementation of GIST have prevented precise comparisons between free energies estimated using GIST and those from other free energy methods such as thermodynamic integration (TI). Here, we address this by presenting PME-GIST, a formalism by which particle mesh Ewald (PME)-based electrostatic energies and long-range Lennard-Jones (LJ) energies are decomposed and assigned to individual atoms and the corresponding voxels they occupy in a manner consistent with the GIST approach. PME-GIST yields potential energy calculations that are precisely consistent with modern simulation engines and performs these calculations at a dramatically faster speed than prior implementations. Here, we apply PME-GIST end-state analyses to 32 small molecules whose solvation free energies are close to evenly distributed from 2 kcal/mol to -17 kcal/mol and obtain solvation energies consistent with TI calculations (R2 = 0.99, mean unsigned difference 0.8 kcal/mol). We also estimate the entropy contribution from the second and higher order entropy terms that are truncated in GIST by the differences between entropies calculated in TI and GIST. With a simple correction for the high order entropy terms, PME-GIST obtains solvation free energies that are highly consistent with TI calculations (R2 = 0.99, mean unsigned difference = 0.4 kcal/mol) and experimental results (R2 = 0.88, mean unsigned difference = 1.4 kcal/mol). The precision of PME-GIST also enables us to show that the solvation free energy of small hydrophobic and hydrophilic molecules can be largely understood based on perturbations of the solvent in a region extending a few solvation shells from the solute. We have integrated PME-GIST into the open-source molecular dynamics analysis software CPPTRAJ.

Entropy-Entropy Compensation between the Protein, Ligand, and Solvent Degrees of Freedom Fine-Tunes Affinity in Ligand Binding to Galectin-3C.

Molecular recognition is fundamental to biological signaling. A central question is how individual interactions between molecular moieties affect the thermodynamics of ligand binding to proteins and how these effects might propagate beyond the immediate neighborhood of the binding site. Here, we investigate this question by introducing minor changes in ligand structure and characterizing the effects of these on ligand affinity to the carbohydrate recognition domain of galectin-3, using a combination of isothermal titration calorimetry, X-ray crystallography, NMR relaxation, and computational approaches including molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST). We studied a congeneric series of ligands with a fluorophenyl-triazole moiety, where the fluorine substituent varies between the ortho, meta, and para positions (denoted O, M, and P). The M and P ligands have similar affinities, whereas the O ligand has 3-fold lower affinity, reflecting differences in binding enthalpy and entropy. The results reveal surprising differences in conformational and solvation entropy among the three complexes. NMR backbone order parameters show that the O-bound protein has reduced conformational entropy compared to the M and P complexes. By contrast, the bound ligand is more flexible in the O complex, as determined by 19F NMR relaxation, ensemble-refined X-ray diffraction data, and MD simulations. Furthermore, GIST calculations indicate that the O-bound complex has less unfavorable solvation entropy compared to the other two complexes. Thus, the results indicate compensatory effects from ligand conformational entropy and water entropy, on the one hand, and protein conformational entropy, on the other hand. Taken together, these different contributions amount to entropy–entropy compensation among the system components involved in ligand binding to a target protein.

Quantum Chemical Microsolvation by Automated Water Placement.

We developed a quantitative approach to quantum chemical microsolvation. Key in our methodology is the automatic placement of individual solvent molecules based on the free energy solvation thermodynamics derived from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST). This protocol enabled us to rigorously define the number, position, and orientation of individual solvent molecules and to determine their interaction with the solute based on physical quantities. The generated solute–solvent clusters served as an input for subsequent quantum chemical investigations. We showcased the applicability, scope, and limitations of this computational approach for a number of small molecules, including urea, 2-aminobenzothiazole, (+)-syn-benzotriborneol, benzoic acid, and helicene. Our results show excellent agreement with the available ab initio molecular dynamics data and experimental results.

Advancing GIST-Based Solvent Functionals through Multiobjective Optimization of Solvent Enthalpy and Entropy Scoring Terms.

Water molecules and their impact on the enthalpy and entropy of protein-ligand binding are of considerable interest in drug discovery. In this contribution, we use multiobjective optimization to fit the solvent enthalpy and entropy scoring terms of grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST)-based solvent functionals to measured isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) data of protein-ligand-binding reactions for ligand pairs of the protein thrombin. For the investigated ligand pairs, the overwhelming contribution to the relative binding affinity difference is assumed to be attributed to the contribution of water molecules. We present different implementations of the solvent functionals and then proceed by analyzing the most successful one in more detail through error assessment and presentation of the scoring regions in the binding pocket and the unbound ligands of selected examples. We find overall good agreement between calculated and experimental data and, although physically not fully justified, the ligand-desolvation score increases binding affinity, thus suggesting that the solvent molecules on the surface of the unbound ligand constitute a proxy for interactions gained through the protein. Furthermore, we find limited transferability of the parameters even between similar protein targets, thus suggesting refitting for each new protein target. Possible reasons for the limited transferability may arise through the initial assumption of dominating water contributions to binding affinity. Nonetheless, overall our study demonstrates a consistent approach to assign thermodynamic quantities to water molecules that is sensible to measured thermodynamic signatures and enables bridging the gap between experimentally determined water positions in protein-ligand complexes and measured thermodynamic data.

Conformational Ensembles of Antibodies Determine Their Hydrophobicity

A major challenge in the development of antibody biotherapeutics is their tendency to aggregate. One root cause for aggregation is exposure of hydrophobic surface regions to the solvent. Many current techniques predict the relative aggregation propensity of antibodies via precalculated scales for the hydrophobicity or aggregation propensity of single amino acids. However, those scales cannot describe the nonadditive effects of a residue’s surrounding on its hydrophobicity. Therefore, they are inherently limited in their ability to describe the impact of subtle differences in molecular structure on the overall hydrophobicity. Here, we introduce a physics-based approach to describe hydrophobicity in terms of the hydration free energy using grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST). We apply this method to assess the effects of starting structures, conformational sampling, and protonation states on the hydrophobicity of antibodies. Our results reveal that high-quality starting structures, i.e., crystal structures, are crucial for the prediction of hydrophobicity and that conformational sampling can compensate errors introduced by the starting structure. On the other hand, sampling of protonation states only leads to good results when combined with high-quality structures, whereas it can even be detrimental otherwise. We conclude by pointing out that a single static homology model may not be adequate for predicting hydrophobicity.

An online repository of solvation thermodynamic and structural maps of SARS-CoV-2 targets.

SARS-CoV-2 recently jumped species and rapidly spread via human-to-human transmission to cause a global outbreak of COVID-19. The lack of effective vaccine combined with the severity of the disease necessitates attempts to develop small molecule drugs to combat the virus. COVID19_GIST_HSA is a freely available online repository to provide solvation thermodynamic maps of COVID-19-related protein small molecule drug targets. Grid inhomogeneous solvation theory maps were generated using AmberTools cpptraj-GIST, 3D reference interaction site model maps were created with AmberTools rism3d.snglpnt and hydration site analysis maps were created using SSTMap code. The resultant data can be applied to drug design efforts: scoring solvent displacement for docking, rational lead modification, prioritization of ligand- and protein- based pharmacophore elements, and creation of water-based pharmacophores. Herein, we demonstrate the use of the solvation thermodynamic mapping data. It is hoped that this freely provided data will aid in small molecule drug discovery efforts to defeat SARS-CoV-2.

Solvation Thermodynamics in Different Solvents: Water-Chloroform Partition Coefficients from Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory.

Reliable information on partition coefficients plays a key role in drug development, as solubility decisively affects bioavailability. In a physicochemical context, the partition coefficient of a solute between two different solvents can be described as a function of solvation free energies. Hence, substantial scientific efforts have been made toward accurate predictions of solvation free energies in various solvents. The grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) facilitates the calculation of solvation free energies. In this study, we introduce an extended version of the GIST algorithm, which enables the calculation for chloroform in addition to water. Furthermore, GIST allows localization of enthalpic and entropic contributions. We test our approach by calculating partition coefficients between water and chloroform for a set of eight small molecules. We report a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.96 between experimentally determined and calculated partition coefficients. The capability to reliably predict partition coefficients between water and chloroform and the possibility to localize their contributions allow the optimization of a compound’s partition coefficient. Therefore, we presume that this methodology will be of great benefit for the efficient development of pharmaceuticals.

Macrocycle Cell Permeability Measured by Solvation Free Energies in Polar and Apolar Environments.

The relation of surface polarity and conformational preferences is decisive for cell permeability and thus bioavailability of macrocyclic drugs. Here, we employ grid inhomogeneous solvation theory (GIST) to calculate solvation free energies for a series of six macrocycles in water and chloroform as a measure of passive membrane permeability. We perform accelerated molecular dynamics simulations to capture a diverse structural ensemble in water and chloroform, allowing for a direct profiling of solvent-dependent conformational preferences. Subsequent GIST calculations facilitate a quantitative measure of solvent preference in the form of a transfer free energy, calculated from the ensemble-averaged solvation free energies in water and chloroform. Hence, the proposed method considers how the conformational diversity of macrocycles in polar and apolar solvents translates into transfer free energies. Following this strategy, we find a striking correlation of 0.92 between experimentally determined cell permeabilities and calculated transfer free energies. For the studied model systems, we find that the transfer free energy exceeds the purely water-based solvation free energies as a reliable estimate of cell permeability and that conformational sampling is imperative for a physically meaningful model. We thus recommend this purely physics-based approach as a computational tool to assess cell permeabilities of macrocyclic drug candidates.