Information Advantage Research Articles

Does state affiliation create information advantage to financial analysts

PurposeRecent studies have documented the significant influence of investment bank relationships on the forecast accuracy of affiliated analysts. However, the literature primarily focuses on investment bank-firm relationships, such as whether the investment bank has underwriter or lending relationships with firms. Little attention has been paid to the impact of investment bank-state relationships. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper investigates whether investment bank-state relationships create an information advantage for affiliated analysts.Design/methodology/approachWe empirically test the information advantage of state-affiliated analysts using a large sample of analyst forecasts from China spanning the period 2008 to 2020. Specifically, we investigate whether state-affiliated analysts issue more accurate and timely forecasts around macro events. To address endogeneity concerns, we examine instances where analysts move between state-affiliated and non-affiliated banks, as well as changes in the controlling structure of investment banks.FindingsWe find that state-affiliated analysts demonstrate greater accuracy in forecasts driven by macro events, indicating their information advantage. This effect is more pronounced under conditions of heightened economic policy uncertainty and closer ties between investment banks and the state. After transitioning to a non-state-affiliated investment bank, analysts no longer maintain the ability to make superior macro-event-driven forecasts. Conversely, when the investment bank's affiliation changes from non-state to state, financial analysts gain an information advantage following the establishment of new state affiliation. Additionally, state-affiliated analysts tend to issue more assertive forecasts in response to macro events, which are subsequently echoed by their peers. Furthermore, this information advantage is recognized by investors, enhancing stock price informativeness.Originality/valueFirstly, we contribute to the literature on the economic implications of state ownership in financial intermediaries. Secondly, we enrich the existing literature on financial analysts by acknowledging the pivotal role of investment bank relationships in shaping analysts' behaviors. Lastly, unlike existing literature that treats forecasts driven by macroeconomic events and those influenced by firm-specific events as a homogeneous category, this study contributes to the literature by innovatively categorizing analyst forecasts into two distinct types.

ESG SCORES, EARNINGS MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND

The paper's main aim is to investigate the relationship between the ESG activities scores and profitability metrics of 33 public companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. By utilizing the Refinitiv methodology, we answer whether a company's environmental, social and governance performance perspectives positively affect the ROA, ROE and ROC ratios or whether there is a negative relationship. A secondary objective of the research is to investigate the relationship between profitability and the magnitude of aggregate-based earnings management in the tested sample. The moderating effect of earnings manipulation on the links between ESG performance and a company's profitability metrics is a research gap that has not been well-studied to date.This research demonstrates contradictory results: a positive relationship between the social dimension of ESG activities and the financial performance of companies was observed regarding ROE and ROC ratios. The negative impact of the environmental pillar rank on the ROA ratio was captured only in selected regression analyses. The governance pillar score did not statistically affect the tested profitability metrics. On the other hand, we gathered evidence that public companies with a high range of non-financial disclosures tend to alter earnings via accruals, and discretionary accruals statistically affect the ROA, ROE and ROC ratios. This finding contrasts previous research claiming that the earnings management phenomenon is a typical agency problem and that the policy of non-mandatory disclosures following the ESG assumptions could constrain the asymmetry of information and managerial information advantages.

Monitoring and Loan Pricing: Do Microfinance Institutions Extract Rents from Entrepreneurs?

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) have been criticized for charging high interest rates on loans. Building on multiple-principal agency theory, we argue that when an MFI acquires proprietary information about its clients through monitoring, it gains an information advantage over other lenders enabling it to extract rents by charging higher interest rates. Using data from 712 MFIs across 62 countries from 2010 to 2018, we find this to be the case. Furthermore, we find that MFIs that make more relationship-based loans, operate in less competitive markets, and those driven by for-profit commercial banking logic are more likely to extract even greater rents.

Insider trading in discrete time Kyle games

AbstractWe present a new discrete time version of Kyle’s (Econometrica 53(6):1315–1335, 1985) classic model of insider trading, formulated as a generalised extensive form game. The model has three kinds of traders: an insider, random noise traders, and a market maker. The insider aims to exploit her informational advantage and maximise expected profits while the market maker observes the total order flow and sets prices accordingly. First, we show how the multi-period model with finitely many pure strategies can be reduced to a (static) social system in the sense of Debreu (Proc Natl Acad Sci 38(10):886–893, 1952) and prove the existence of a sequential Kyle equilibrium, following Kreps and Wilson (Econometrica 50(4):863–894, 1982). This works for any probability distribution with finite support of the noise trader’s demand and the true value, and for any finite information flow of the insider. In contrast to Kyle (1985) with normal distributions, equilibria exist in general only in mixed strategies and not in pure strategies. In the single-period model we establish bounds for the insider’s strategy in equilibrium. Finally, we prove the existence of an equilibrium for the game with a continuum of actions, by considering an approximating sequence of games with finitely many actions. Because of the lack of compactness of the set of measurable price functions, standard infinite-dimensional fixed point theorems are not applicable.

Government affiliation, analyst behavior and the economic consequences

AbstractA significant number of regional brokerage firms in China are owned by their respective local governments. We use this context to examine how local government affiliation affects brokerage firms’ research activities. Using a sample of analyst reports from 2013 to 2021, we find that analysts working at local government‐affiliated brokerage firms are more likely to cover firms within the local government's jurisdiction than non‐affiliated analysts. Local government‐affiliated analysts enjoy an information advantage, as evidenced by the issuance of more accurate earnings forecasts for local firms, compared to those of non‐affiliated analysts. The effect is stronger for local firms with lower information quality. Additionally, local government‐affiliated analysts show more optimism in stock recommendations, but not in earnings forecasts, for local firms, compared to non‐affiliated analysts. The effect is more pronounced for local firms that receive more local government subsidies, operate in regions with greater local government intervention or during the COVID‐19 pandemic and the National Congress conferences, and require more capital market support. The results of this study advance our understanding of the key determinants of analyst performance and provide new evidence in the debate on the role of government intervention in financial institutions.

Can Outsiders Often See the Most? Evidence from China: The Impact of Foreign Investors on Insider Trading

ABSTRACT Insiders could exploit their informational advantage to obtain excessive returns. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading systems, we examine the inhibitory impact of foreign investors on insiders’ informational advantage. Our findings indicate that the advent of the Stock Connect trading system has diminished the profitability of insider trading for the target companies. The influence operates through two primary channels: the information effect and the liquidity effect. Specifically, the Stock Connect trading system has hindered insiders’ stock buying and their profitability by reducing stock price synchronicity. Besides, it facilitates an increase in insiders’ stock selling by addressing liquidity shortages. Further tests demonstrate that those insiders with obvious informational advantage and great power are obviously impacted by the inhibition effect on their profitability. Our results show that the exploration of investment opportunities by foreign investors has reduced the insiders’ ability to profit from increasing their shareholdings. Additionally, it offers liquidity support for insiders, enabling them to decrease their shareholdings. These promote fair trading and the efficient functioning of the capital market.

Internal Ties and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

Drawing on information advantage and executive entrenchment perspectives, this study examines the impact of internal ties between independent directors and non‐CEO executives (hereafter, internal ties) on stock price crashes. Utilizing a dataset covering Chinese listed firms spanning 2005 to 2021, we find that internal ties alleviate information asymmetry between the board and management, reducing future stock price crash risk. This supports the information advantage hypothesis. Further analysis reveals the effect of internal ties on stock price crash risk is more evident in high social trust regions and among non‐state‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs). Mechanism tests demonstrate that financial opacity and financial reporting conservatism are economic mechanisms through which internal ties affect stock price crashes. Our research sheds new light regarding the significance of internal ties in corporate governance and enriches the literature on internal governance.

The Impact of Supply Chain Network Centrality on Sustainable Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from China

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are key drivers for resource integration and the operational efficiency of enterprises. Companies that hold central positions within supply chains may leverage their strategic location to reduce information asymmetry, enhancing their ability to engage in sustainable activities. However, research on the role of supply chain network centrality in M&A decisions remains underexplored. This study aims to empirically examine whether and how centrality in supply chain networks enhances the likelihood and success of M&A activities, contributing to both theory and practice in corporate strategy. In particular, we construct a novel measure of firm centrality within the supply chain and utilize panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2008 to 2021. Our findings reveal that the central position of supply chain networks promotes the probability and frequency of mergers and acquisitions. Mechanism analysis reveals that gaining information advantages and relieving financial constraints are two key channels through which the supply chain network promotes mergers and acquisitions. Furthermore, the effects are more pronounced for firms with non-state ownership, with closer proximity to customers or suppliers, with higher operational risk, and with growth and decline phases. A series of robustness tests support these results, including alternative measures, alternative estimating methods, and sub-sample tests. Moreover, central supply chain companies exhibit better long-term financial performance following mergers and acquisitions. This paper enriches our understanding of the roles of supply chain networks in firms’ mergers and acquisitions and holds important practical implications for companies seeking to achieve sustainable and long-term development.

The entrepreneurial effect of digital infrastructure development: micro evidence from China

ABSTRACT According to the Resource Dependence Theory (RDT), this study examines the entrepreneurial impact of digital infrastructure development on households in China. Drawing from a quasi-natural experiment of the Broadband China strategy, we applied the staggered difference-in-differences method. Our baseline results show that digital infrastructure development increases the likelihood of household entrepreneurship. Moreover, we found that this positive effect may be explained by information advantage, social network expansion, and financial constraint alleviation. Additionally, further analysis indicates that digital infrastructure development enhances household entrepreneurial performance and shows inclusive characteristics that are more conducive to promoting entrepreneurship among disadvantaged groups; through entrepreneurship, digital infrastructure development further promotes household economic welfare. Our research not only broadens the applicability of RDT within the digital economy domain but also significantly contributes to the information technology for development literature.

FinTech Credit and Entrepreneurial Growth

ABSTRACTBased on automated credit lines to vendors trading on Alibaba's online retail platform and a discontinuity in the credit decision algorithm, we document that a vendor's access to FinTech credit boosts its sales growth, transaction growth, and the level of customer satisfaction gauged by product, service, and consignment ratings. These effects are more pronounced for vendors characterized by greater information asymmetry about their credit risk and less collateral, which reveals the information advantage of FinTech credit over traditional credit technology.

Strategic Alliances and Lending Relationships

ABSTRACT We study how proprietary information flows in strategic alliances facilitate banks’ information collection in private debt markets. We argue that lenders that have previously worked with a borrower’s alliance partners have an information advantage and show that firms entering a strategic alliance receive a lower interest spread on loans from banks that have previously lent to their strategic partners than loans from other banks. Cross-sectional tests on alliances’ economic importance and participants’ information environment support our hypothesis that the loan price effect is driven by reduced information asymmetry between borrowers and their partners’ relationship banks. Last, we find borrowers are more likely to obtain debt financing from alliance-related banks than from other banks. Overall, our findings are consistent with lenders that have previously worked with an alliance counterparty possessing debt contracting-relevant information about the soft nature of alliance value and the partners’ commitment to alliances. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G10; G21; G32.

Stock Liquidity Sidedness and Share Repurchase

We show that stock liquidity sidedness plays a vital role in share repurchase decisions. Specifically, we investigate whether share repurchases are affected differently by upside and downside liquidity, which respectively correspond to positive and negative return days. Using a sample of U.S. publicly-listed firms over four decades, we demonstrate that upside liquidity has a larger effect on repurchase initiation, amount, and ratio. Managers of repurchasing firms are more concerned with upside liquidity because they expect their repurchase activities to propel stock prices upward rather than down. The relationship between liquidity sidedness and repurchase decisions is more pronounced for financially constrained firms but less so for firms with higher stock price informativeness. We mitigate potential endogeneity concerns by using the market and industry liquidity sidedness as instruments and exploiting the 2003 Amendment to SEC Rule 10b-18 as an exogenous shock to the information advantages of repurchasing firms. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of market microstructure in shaping corporate policies.

Digital infrastructure expansion and carbon intensity of small enterprises: Evidence from China

While the growth of digital infrastructure theoretically offers increased opportunities for enterprises, the policy implications may vary depending on the firm size. We utilize the pilot policy of the Broadband China Strategy as an exogenous shock for firms and adopt a unique dataset from the National Tax Survey to investigate the impact of digital infrastructure expansion on the carbon intensity of small enterprises. The results indicate that digital infrastructure expansion leads to a notable increase of 9.04% in small firm's carbon intensity. These results exhibit resilience, withstanding rigorous testing through various robustness checks. This increase is primarily attributed to two channels: the competition effect, which results in a decline in small firm's output, and the change in energy structure, which leads to an increase in small firm's carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a more pronounced increase for small enterprises located in regions with less stringent environmental regulations and in industries with higher degree of market concentration. Our conclusion suggests that the government should pay attention to the survival and development of small enterprises. This entails ensuring fair market competition on digital platforms and preventing the dominant enterprises from abusing their information advantages to jeopardize the interests of small enterprises.

CvT-UNet: A weld pool segmentation method integrating a CNN and a transformer

In the acquisition of weld seam images, the presence of light and impurity interference often leads to weak edge problems in weld seam images, making the identification of weld seam defects challenging. In such scenarios, segmentation processing must be performed specifically at the fusion pool of the weld seam. In recent years, Transformers, which leverage self-attention mechanisms, have demonstrated superior sequence modeling capabilities compared to convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The Transformer excels at weighting different positions within a sequence, enabling effective handling of long-range dependencies. However, Transformers lack the ability of CNNs to extract local information. To address this limitation, this paper introduces a novel CvT-UNet semantic segmentation model that combines the strengths of both the convolutional neural network and the transformer. The model combines the global context information capabilities of the Transformer with the spatial information advantages provided by the convolutional neural network. The proposed model employs an encoder-decoder architecture by building a U-shaped network with designed CvT blocks. Depthwise separable convolutions are utilized to balance parameter quantities, and the skip-connection module is redesigned to enable the model to achieve more precise segmentation of weld seam fusion pools with fewer parameters. Experimental evaluations on diverse weld seam datasets under different environmental conditions demonstrate promising results. The model achieves average intersection over union (IoU) values of 93.75 %, 88.31 %, and 90.86 %, respectively. Specifically, on an automotive weld seam dataset, CvT-UNet outperforms the purely convolutional neural network structure UNet3+, with a 1.63 % increase in the mean IoU (MIOU) and a 1.39 % increase in the mean pixel accuracy (MPA). Compared to the TransUNet fusion model, CvT-UNet results in a 0.33 % increase in the MIOU and a 0.6 % increase in the MPA. Furthermore, compared to the state-of-the-art curve segmentation model LIOT, CvT-UNet achieves a 1.94 % increase in the MIOU and a 0.61 % increase in the MPA, demonstrating favorable segmentation performance.

NETWORK-CENTERED COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACT ON THE COMBAT CAPABILITIES OF INTERSPECIES ENGROUPMENTS

The article reveals the features of contemporary warfare conducting and the use of joint force engroupments in them, consisting of different units of the armed forces. The characteristics of high-tech armed forces and their joint force engroupments are given as highly mobile, well-armed units of the armed forces that can operate under common command and information space. Their directions of development as highly mobile, well-armed units of the armed forces operating under common command and information space are determined, as well as the need of network-centric control systems use for joint force engroupments is shown and their role in the contemporary warfare in aerospace (land, sea) and information space conducmentt is shown to increase. It is shown that the use of network-centric control systems for joint force engroupment is aimed at obtaining an information advantage over the enemy through the use of the capabilities of common command and information space by all its users. The article shows that the main today’s requirement to ensure the integrated use of all available forces and means (fire, information, electronic warfare) is synchronized in real time, following common command plan, as well as the presence of deep awareness of the command and control bodies about the situation, which combat zone is being formed. It is aimed at increasing the combat capabilities of joint force engroupments in the contemporary warfare conductment. The main combat capabilities components of the joint force engroupments are presented and the influence of the functioning of the network-centric control system of the joint force engroupment on its combat capabilities is shown. It occurs due to the creation of a single command and information space and the provision of integrated and synchronized use of all elements of the joint force engroupments in real time. This material should be used in determining ways to increase the combat capabilities of the joint force engroupment and the process in-depth study of the joint force engroupment network-centric control system functioning influence on its combat capabilities.

Are Bitcoin option traders speculative or informed?

Are Bitcoin option traders speculative or do they have an informational advantage over the market? We explore this question using tick data from Deribit, one of the largest cryptocurrency option exchange platforms. Compared to other option platforms, Deribit is largely unregulated and makes for an ideal testing ground for this question. This is because if there are traders who possess privileged information, this platform would be an ideal venue for them to exploit their informational advantage. Our analytical framework allows for checking whether option traders trade ahead of changes in investor attention, or whether such trading lags abnormal spikes in investor attention. The former would suggest information-driven trading while the latter would suggest that such trading is speculative or noise-driven in nature.

Corporate insider purchases and the options market: Competition among informed investors

Corporate insiders have superior access to information; their trades, particularly purchases, should be informative. However, the extent of their informational advantage may be limited by the presence of other informed market participants. We document less frequent insider purchases in stocks with relatively high options trading activity. These purchases are followed by negligible abnormal returns. In contrast, stocks with less active options trading experience more frequent insider purchases, which yield positive abnormal returns over the subsequent six months. Our novel approach highlights the options market's role in screening uninformed insider trades, which ultimately contributes to more efficient stock market price formation.

Economic policy uncertainty and environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure: the moderating effects of board network centrality and political connections

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure and the moderating role of board network centrality and political connections on the nexus between EPU and ESG.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of the UK Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 350 firms during 2007 to 2018, this study examines the relationship between EPU and the ESG disclosure and the moderating effects of board centrality and board political connections using multivariate regression analysis.FindingsThe results show that firms tend to increase their ESG disclosure when EPU rises. The results also reveal that EPU is negatively associated with firms’ financial performance and ESG performance is less evident for firms with higher ESG disclosure scores and is observed only when board centrality is relatively low and the political connections are absent. The study finds further evidence to support the hypotheses during periods of heightened conflicts (i.e. global financial crisis and the Brexit referendum).Practical implicationsThis study offers practical insights for corporate managers who attempt to preserve and enhance their firms’ competitive advantages via maintaining its stakeholders support through greater ESG disclosure during heightened EPU periods.Originality/valueBy integrating the resource-based view (RBV) and the signaling theory, this study extends the signaling theory and RBV by examining the relationship between EPU and ESG disclosure as a signal to its stakeholders and information advantages that board centrality and political connections bring to the company to reduce information asymmetry between the firms and its stakeholders during EPU.

A powerful local government's optimal discretion in simple menu contract of monopoly regulation

We analyse the optimal discretion of a powerful local government (LG) in deciding the instrument choice and setting standards of simple menu contracts (composed of a fixed price and a cost reimbursement) of monopoly regulation. Between the two, a fixed-price contract entails more incentives for efficiency than a cost-reimbursement contract, but ensures more profits for the firm. Due to a preference bias towards the firm's benefits between governments, an incentive reward, offered by the federal government (FG) to the powerful LG with informational advantage of efficiency gain from the regulation, is considered to induce an efficient regulatory policy. We find that under the FG's delegation mechanism, upper-level government conflict leads to a compromised policy as an exchange payoff and additional informational rent to the LG for part of their information value. For the remaining information, the reward is rejected, and the LG has the discretionary power to set policy criteria for simple contracts. The results suggest that bureaucratic political issues still lead to an excessive tendency towards either a fixed price or cost reimbursement scheme, depending on the bias direction of the LG's preferences regarding the monopoly. However, the delegation mechanism of hierarchical bureaucracy can effectively alleviate the influence of policy distortions caused by political factors.

Do employers learn more from referrals than from other recruitment channels?

We study whether referrals deliver better information about the productivity of new hires than other recruiting channels. Using combined vacancy-register data, we document that referrals are associated with less screening and lower search costs. We demonstrate that the referral wage premium is informative on referrals’ information advantage only if differences in screening are accounted for. Consistent with the predictions from a learning model, referrals increase new hires’ job stability and wages, with the effects diminishing over time. Results suggest that the referral information advantage is particularly pronounced for males and when employers use referrals as the only search channel.