Information Spillovers Research Articles

Disclosure spillover from going‐private activity

AbstractPublic firms that go private are no longer subject to SEC financial reporting requirements. This study examines peer firms' disclosure responses following the lost information spillover from going‐private events. We first support the lost information transfer, finding evidence that analyst forecasts of peers' earnings are less accurate and more disperse and that peer liquidity is lower immediately following going‐private transactions. In response, industry peers increase disclosure quality in mandatory filings. Peers that enhance disclosure regain some of the lost informational benefits. The disclosure response is most evident in firms that rely more on intra‐industry information spillover, firms with lower competitive concerns, and firms with the greatest deteriorations in their information environments after going‐private activity. Our study examines an underexplored aspect of going‐private transactions—the loss of public disclosure—and finds that the lost information imposes a negative externality that prompts peers to increase self‐disclosure to regain informational benefits.

Natural gas volatility prediction via a novel combination of GARCH-MIDAS and one-class SVM

Research has focused on whether information spillovers from external influences play a role in clean energy–natural gas volatility forecasts. However, the climate and energy crises caused by the intensification of extreme events, such as recent extreme weather and geopolitical risks, have led the public to turn their attention to research in the field of clean energy. Therefore, this paper uses one-class SVM (support vector machine) techniques to identify extreme volatility in natural gas prices induced by significant occurrences (e.g., wars, financial crises, and COVID-19) and then investigates whether considering extreme volatility in natural gas over different volatile periods (short- and long-term periods) improves volatility forecasting accuracy within the context of a GARCH-MIDAS framework. The in-sample analyses demonstrate that extreme shocks increase natural gas price volatility and that the asymmetric effects are more influential than the short- and long-term extreme volatility effects. The out-of-sample results indicate that the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-one-class-SVM-SLES model outperforms the other models and achieves the best forecasting performance of the remaining extended models. In addition, robustness tests confirm these findings.

Information Spillovers and Cross Monitoring between the Stock Market and Loan Market

We explore information spillovers and cross-monitoring between the stock and loan markets, focusing on the roles of short sellers and banks. Using Regulation SHO that directly affects short-selling constraints in the stock market but is exogenous to the loan market, we find that only those firms without bank monitors exhibit significant stock price declines upon the announcement of SHO. We also document that while short interest increases following SHO, it increases far less for firms with bank monitors. Using bank and lending relationship characteristics, we find SHO returns increase in the bank's ability and incentive to monitor. Our exploration of equity ownership structure reveals that the presence of block holders and dedicated owners has little to no effect on our results, suggesting that bank monitors complement shareholder monitoring efforts.

Information linkages across countries around net zero announcements

This study investigates the information linkages around net zero announcements across countries. Relying on rational expectation theory, this study employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) as well as the implied volatility approach to quantify volatility linkages between exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from nine countries and a global ETF (WLD). The GMM analysis reveals that volatility linkages among country ETFs and WLD range from 39.67 % to 71.43 %, while the implied volatility approach indicates that volatility linkages between markets range from 32.31 % to 65.36 %, indicating significant information spillover across countries. A time-varying dynamic analysis further shows that the US Government's net zero announcement increased volatility linkages across markets by 8.7 % to 58.05 %, signaling market approval of the US commitment to net zero targets. Multivariate analysis of the monthly correlation between country ETFs and WLD shows that the US plays a pivotal role. Although net zero announcements by the US, UK, and China individually impacted market correlations, the effect of China's announcement was insignificant when all announcements were considered in the model. Without US participation, efforts by other countries to achieve global net zero goals are unlikely to succeed.

Are carbon costs transmitting to the building materials industry?

IntroductionReconciling economic development and emission reduction of polluting gases requires balancing long-term and short-term goals across various markets. As a new production cost, the price of carbon allowances is assumed to affect the supply and demand of carbon-intensive sectors. Therefore, this study examines the dynamic price spillover effects between China as the largest carbon emission market and the carbon-intensive building materials industry in a unified time-frequency framework.MethodsThis study measures the dynamic overall and directional spillover effects of carbon and building materials markets in three frequency bands, considering eight carbon pilots and the national carbon market in China and four important building materials.ResultsThe empirical results show that the bi-directional spillover between carbon and the building materials market shows pronounced characteristics in the time-frequency domain, especially in the short-term frequency band of one day to one week, with strong connectivity. After the launch of the national carbon market, the information spillover from the building materials market to the carbon pilots become stronger. Both the carbon pilots and the national carbon market have significant short- and long-term impacts on the building materials market. In addition, there are differences in the impact of carbon markets on various types of carbon intensive building materials.DiscussionCompliance cycles in carbon markets are likely to induce sharp fluctuations in spillovers between the two markets. Therefore, balancing industrial development and stabilizing carbon prices requires a refined policy design that considers the diversified impacts of carbon markets on different industries at across frequencies.

Unintended Real Effects of EDGAR: Evidence from Corporate Innovation

ABSTRACT We study the real effects on innovation of a transformative change in corporate disclosure dissemination, the implementation of the SEC’s EDGAR system. On the one hand, increased disclosure dissemination can lower firms’ cost of capital, thereby stimulating innovative activity. On the other hand, increased dissemination can exacerbate proprietary disclosure costs, reducing firms’ incentives to innovate. We show that treated firms reduce innovation investment following EDGAR’s implementation. In contrast, EDGAR reporting firms’ innovation investment cuts are met with an increase in innovation investment by their technology rivals. Consistent with an increase in proprietary costs, EDGAR-filers disclose less about their innovation activities. We also find evidence of a redistribution of innovative activity from public to private firms not subject to EDGAR disclosure requirements. Overall, our results are consistent with increased disclosure dissemination crowding out investment in innovative projects, whose returns negatively depend on information spillovers. JEL Classifications: D23; L86; M40; M41; O30; O31; O32; O34.

Does industry co-location improve corporate information environment?

This study examines how the co-location of firms within the same industry enhances their information environments. We hypothesize that benefits arise from two effects: the industry peer effect, involving intra-industry information spillovers, and the geographic peer effect, related to shared local economic conditions with nearby non-industry peers. Our analysis evaluates how these effects, both separately and jointly, impact analysts’ forecast properties and stock price informativeness regarding future earnings. We find that the industry peer effect is negatively related to forecast dispersion and positively related to forecast accuracy, while the geographic peer effect shows no significant correlation. In addition, stock price informativeness about future earnings is positively associated with the industry peer effect but not with the geographic peer effect. We also find that greater proximity to industry or local peers enables analysts to incorporate more private (relative to public) information into their earnings forecasts, thereby enhancing the firm’s information environment. JEL CLASSIFICATION: M41, D80, G10

Portfolio Diversification Opportunities between Europe and India do Exist

In this article, a humble effort has been made to check the volatility transmission from European stock markets (FTSE100, DAX30, CAC40 and SMI20) to the Indian stock market (NIFTY50) to determine whether there is any opportunity for portfolio managers to diversify their portfolio. Various statistical tools and econometric models, such as vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH), are used to detect the volatility transmission from the European market to the Indian market. The FTSE100 and the NIFTY50 have been found to have bidirectional causality. VAR results suggest that only the DAX30 and SMI20 (Germany and Switzerland) markets have an impact on the Indian market. Finally, using DCC-MGARCH, the researcher found that information spillover takes place from all European countries to India over a longer period of time, but portfolio diversification between the London market (FTSE) and the Indian market (NIFTY) and German market (DAX) with Indian market (NIFTY) is possible over a shorter period of time. JEL Codes: C01, G1, G17

Leader versus lagger: How the timing of financial reports affects audit quality and investment efficiency

AbstractThis paper examines how relative timing affects the quality of financial reports in a staggered reporting system in which some firms report earlier than others. We show that the audit quality of the leading firm exceeds that of the lagger. Investment efficiency also differs systematically across firms, depending on the relative reporting timing as well as the audit market structure. Audit regulations mitigate the misalignment of interests between auditors and investors but limit the effect of information spillovers. We characterize the socially optimal auditing standards and show how and why imposing minimum audit quality requirements complements and/or substitutes for adjusting auditors' legal liability. Overall, we show that a staggered reporting system dominates a simultaneous reporting system in enhancing audit quality and investment efficiency through regulation.

Multilayer network analysis of idiosyncratic volatility connectedness: Evidence from China

This paper proposes multilayer networks, including lagged, contemporaneous, and long-run networks, to examine the idiosyncratic connectedness among Chinese financial institutions. We explore the topology of multilayer networks through static and dynamic analysis to capture the information transmission mechanism of idiosyncratic risks. Moreover, we investigate the drivers influencing idiosyncratic connectedness across financial institutions. We find that idiosyncratic risk contagion among financial institutions is stronger in the long-run network. At the same time, we note that the three networks contain different connection structures, which means that the information transmission mechanism of idiosyncratic risks is heterogeneous in multilayer networks. In addition, when the financial system is under stress, we observe that the contemporaneous effect of idiosyncratic connectedness rises rapidly. Institutional level analysis shows that diversified financial institutions play active roles in the lagged network, securities institutions are transmitters of contemporaneous information spillovers, and banking institutions are the main drivers of the long-run network. Finally, our study shows that size is the main factor driving idiosyncratic risk spillovers among financial institutions.

Sequential Reporting Bias

ABSTRACT Firms with correlated fundamentals often issue reports sequentially, leading to information spillovers. The theoretical literature has investigated multifirm reporting, but only when firms report simultaneously. We examine the implications of sequential reporting, where firms aim to maximize their market price and can manipulate their reports. The introduction of sequentiality significantly alters the biasing behavior of firms and the resulting informational environment relative to simultaneous reporting. In particular, a lead firm always manipulates more when reports are issued sequentially. Moreover, relative to simultaneous reporting, sequential reporting reduces the overall information available to the market about each firm, resulting in less efficient and less volatile prices. Additionally, we find that stronger correlation in firm fundamentals can amplify the lead firm’s incentive for manipulation under sequentiality, in contrast to simultaneous reporting. We offer further results regarding, for example, market response coefficients, and provide a number of empirical implications. JEL Classifications: C72; D82; D83; G14; M41.

Interconnectedness between Islamic and conventional banks: a multilayer network view

PurposeThis study aims to examine information (stock return, volatility and extreme risk) spillovers and interconnectedness within dual-banking systems.Design/methodology/approachUsing multilayer information spillover networks, this paper conduct a deep analysis of contagion dynamics among 24 Islamic and 46 conventional banks from 2006 to 2022.FindingsThe findings show the network’s rapid response to financial shocks. Through cross-sector analysis, this paper identify information spillovers between and within Islamic and conventional banking systems. Furthermore, this research illustrates distinct roles played by Islamic and conventional banks within the multilayer network structure, contingent upon the nature of the financial shock.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the differential roles of Islamic and conventional banks in information transmission can aid policymakers and financial institutions in devising more effective risk management strategies, thereby enhancing financial stability within dual-banking systems.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by emphasizing the necessity of examining contagion mechanisms beyond traditional single-layer network structures, shedding light on the shadow dynamics of information transmission in dual-banking systems.

Realized Volatility Spillover Connectedness among the Leading European Currencies after the End of the Sovereign-Debt Crisis: A QVAR Approach

This paper examines the time-varying spillover effects and connectedness between the euro and other EU and non-EU currencies after the end of the sovereign-debt crisis. We employ the Quantile Vector Autoregression connectedness approach using intraday data for seven currencies (the euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint, the Czech koruna, and the Norwegian krone) spanning from 1 January 2016 to 30 November 2022. The results indicate that, almost in all quantiles, the currencies of Eastern European Group countries (i.e., Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) are net contributors of information spillovers to other currencies, while currencies of non-EU countries (Switzerland, UK, and Norway) are net takers. Further, we find that the euro is the highest transmitter of net information spillovers to all other currencies until 2021. Interestingly, after 2021, the euro changes to net information spillover taker from all other currencies; highlighting that external shocks (e.g., COVID-19, the energy crisis) have significant risk spillover effects on the European currency market. Policymakers and market participants could benefit from knowing which currency drives developments to avoid unexpected consequences.

Unravelling habituation for COVID-19-related information: A panel data study in Japan.

This study examines people's habituation to COVID-19-related information over almost three years. Using publicly available data from 47 Japanese prefectures, I analyse how human mobility responded to COVID-19-related information, such as the number of COVID-19-infected cases, the declaration of a state of emergency (DSE), and several doses of vaccine using an interactive effects model, which is a type of panel data regression. The results show that Japanese citizens were generally fearful and cautious during the first wave of the unknown infection. As such, a 1% week-on-week increase in the number of infected cases results in a decrease in human mobility by 1.09-percentage-point (pp) week-on-week. However, they gradually became habituated to similar infection information during the subsequent waves, which is reflected in 0.71 pp and 0.29 pp decreases in human mobility in the second and third waves. Nevertheless, the level of habituation decreased in response to the different types of the infection, such as new variants in the fourth wave, with 0.50 pp decrease. By contrast, regarding the DSE, it is more plausible to consider that human mobility responds to varying requests rather than habituate them. Whereas a rapid vaccination program could alleviate people's concerns. I also find spatial spillovers of infection information on human mobility using a spatial weight matrix included in the regression model. However, there is no evidence of DSE or vaccination spatial spillovers, likely because both are valid only in one's own prefecture. The implementation of flexible human mobility control policies by closely monitoring human mobility can prevent excessive or insufficient mobility control requests. Such a flexible policy can efficiently suppress infection spread and prevent economic activity reduction more than necessary. These implications are useful for evidence-based policymaking during future pandemics.

Unveiling the spatial dynamics of climate impact on rice yield in India

Climate change has added new dimensions of uncertainty associated with India's rice production. Previous research has explored the impact of climate variation on production and noted the interdependence among neighbouring regions. Using district-level data, we investigate two categories of spatial dynamics associated with the climate sensitivity of rice yield. First, we find evidence that supports previous research that yield is significantly influenced by the direct effects of monsoon maximum temperature and rainfall. The second category, capturing indirect effects, is novel because it provides additional insights into formal and informal networks that underpin the information flow on climate adaptation. Empirical evidence of spatial interdependence arising from information spillovers provides insights into the development of spatially targeted policies that offer the potential for knowledge transfer that contributes to sustaining and increasing rice yields. Policy objectives should therefore focus on advancing technology and promoting social networks that enhance information flow across regions.

Dynamic quantile connectedness between oil and stock markets: The impact of the interest rate

This paper explores the heterogeneous and dynamic connectedness between the oil and stock markets of emerging economies under various market conditions by introducing a novel quantile regression TVP-VAR network method. Moreover, a semiparametric model is used to analyze the impact of interest rates on the connectedness. The results show that (1) the total connectedness between the oil and stock markets of emerging economies in bull and bear markets is significantly larger than under normal market conditions. Moreover, the total connectedness is time-varying and crisis-sensitive in all market scenarios. (2) The total connectedness has asymmetric characteristics in bull and bear markets. The net information spillover from oil markets to stock markets of emerging economies shows heterogeneity under different market backgrounds. (3) The impact of interest rates on the total connectedness exhibits a “U-shaped” curve pattern for all market statuses. This study can serve as a reference for regulators aiming to formulate monetary policies for different market environments, especially extreme markets, and for investors aiming to adjust their investment strategies and optimize their investment portfolios according to market conditions.

Does CEA or EUA matter for major commodity markets? Fresh evidence from the analysis of information spillovers and portfolio diversification

PurposeThis study conducts a comparative analysis of the diversification effects of China's national carbon market (CEA) and the EU ETS Phase IV (EUA) within major commodity markets.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the TVP-VAR extension of the spillover index framework to scrutinize the information spillovers among the energy, agriculture, metal, and carbon markets. Subsequently, the study explores practical applications of these findings, emphasizing how investors can harness insights from information spillovers to refine their investment strategies.FindingsFirst, the CEA provide ample opportunities for portfolio diversification between the energy, agriculture, and metal markets, a desirable feature that the EUA does not possess. Second, a portfolio comprising exclusively energy and carbon assets often exhibits the highest Sharpe ratio. Nevertheless, the inclusion of agricultural and metal commodities in a carbon-oriented portfolio may potentially compromise its performance. Finally, our results underscore the pronounced advantage of minimum spillover portfolios; particularly those that designed minimize net pairwise volatility spillover, in the context of China's national carbon market.Originality/valueThis study addresses the previously unexplored intersection of information spillovers and portfolio diversification in major commodity markets, with an emphasis on the role of CEA.

Information Spillovers at Earnings Announcements

ABSTRACTResearch documents price co‐movements, or “spillovers,” between focal firms and their peers at focal firms’ earnings announcements. We find that both signed and absolute co‐movements between focal‐ and peer‐firm returns are significantly lower at earnings‐announcement dates compared to other dates. Analytically, we demonstrate that co‐movements do not necessarily indicate common information; instead, co‐movements measure the relative proportion of focal firm‐specific information to common information in focal‐firm earnings announcements. We study three settings where information transfers might be higher: when focal firms report significant earnings surprises, are industry leaders, or share correlated earnings patterns with peer firms. We continue to find lower return correlations during focal‐firm earnings announcements. We conduct two alternative tests but fail to find evidence that common information released during focal‐firm earnings announcements is significantly greater than on other days. These results raise doubt about the extent of the information externality attributable to financial‐report releases.

Information spillover among cryptocurrency and traditional financial assets: Evidence from complex networks

This study aims to investigate the information spillover among four traditional financial assets (i.e., crude oil, gold, stock, and U.S. dollar) and nine main cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin, Cardano, Dai, Ripple, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Monero, and Tether), by constructing entropy-based information spillover network and information integration network from both static and dynamic perspectives. The empirical results show that the information spillover among these assets is time-varying, experiencing an obvious increase trend after the COVID-19. As a whole, traditional financial assets mainly play the role of net information transmitter while cryptocurrencies mainly play the role of net information recipient. Tether and Dai are the two main visual coins that can transmit net information flow to traditional assets, while gold and stock are the two main traditional assets that transmit net information flow to cryptocurrencies. Tether and U.S. dollar are the central nodes that link traditional financial assets and cryptocurrencies together.

Information Spillovers and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets the Eurozone Crisis

Abstract We develop a theory of information spillovers in sovereign bond markets in which investors can learn about default risk before trading in primary and secondary markets. If primary markets are structured as multi-unit discriminatory-price auctions, an endogenous winner’s curse leads to strategic complementarities in information acquisition. Shocks to default risk in one country may trigger crisis episodes with widespread information acquisition, sharp increases in the level and volatility of yields in risky countries, low and stable yields in safe countries, market segmentation, and arbitrage profits between primary and secondary markets. These predictions are consistent with the dynamics of auction informativeness during the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, which we measure using the reaction of secondary market yields to primary market yields.