Wild edible mushrooms are recognized as a fundamental component of forest management and rural development initiatives, offering farmers a substantial supplementary source of income. Thus, exploring the valuable wild mushrooms and modeling fungal fruiting in different forest systems in the tropics could provide additional insight into fungal responses to environmental factors and allow for better decision making related to forest management in the face of climate change. In many parts of the world, edible wild mushrooms are considered economically valuable non-timber forest products (NTFPs). In Ethiopia, forest management policies based on NTFPs are needed to make better use of these resources. A thorough assessment of wild mushroom as NTFPs that occur in Ethiopian forests and their uses is key to understanding what actions are needed to manage forests at the local level. We aimed (1) to record the fresh weight of edible wild mushrooms produced in natural and plantation forests in Ethiopia and (2) to develop models to predict sporocarp production in these two forest systems. We established 63 sample plots of 100 m2. All mature and young edible wild mushrooms were harvested weekly during the main rainy season to quantify their abundance and fresh weight. Composite soil samples collected from each plot and climate data recorded for each study area were used to develop models. In total, 64 edible fungal species were collected. The average annual total fresh weight production in plantations (2097.57 kg ha–1) was significantly greater than that produced in natural forests (731.18 kg ha–1). Six alternative models were fitted, and three yield categories were also defined as possible responses. Latitude, soil organic matter and minimum daily temperature were identified as relevant explanatory factors. Our yield classification models were fitted to predict the annual yields of edible fungi based on climate, soil and area-specific information in Ethiopia. The developed models should serve as a basis for further studies in Ethiopian forests to optimize forest management based on NTFPs, specifically edible wild mushrooms.
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