Influence Of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Resolving Weather Fronts Increases the Large‐Scale Circulation Response to Gulf Stream SST Anomalies in Variable‐Resolution CESM2 Simulations

AbstractCanonical understanding based on general circulation models (GCMs) is that the atmospheric circulation response to midlatitude sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies is weak compared to the larger influence of tropical SST anomalies. However, the ∼100‐km horizontal resolution of modern GCMs is too coarse to resolve strong updrafts within weather fronts, which could provide a pathway for surface anomalies to be communicated aloft. Here, we investigate the large‐scale atmospheric circulation response to idealized Gulf Stream SST anomalies in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6) simulations with 14‐km regional grid refinement over the North Atlantic, and compare it to the responses in simulations with 28‐km regional refinement and uniform 111‐km resolution. The highest resolution simulations show a large positive response of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to positive SST anomalies in the Gulf Stream, a 0.4‐standard‐deviation anomaly in the seasonal‐mean NAO for 2°C SST anomalies. The lower‐resolution simulations show a weaker response with a different spatial structure. The enhanced large‐scale circulation response results from an increase in resolved vertical motions with resolution and an associated increase in the influence of SST anomalies on transient‐eddy heat and momentum fluxes in the free troposphere. In response to positive SST anomalies, these processes lead to a stronger and less variable North Atlantic jet, as is characteristic of positive NAO anomalies. Our results suggest that the atmosphere responds differently to midlatitude SST anomalies in higher‐resolution models and that regional refinement in key regions offers a potential pathway to improve multi‐year regional climate predictions based on midlatitude SSTs.

Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient.

Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large-scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988-2010) of a long-term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO-derived SSTA, suggesting that large-scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic-abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large-scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long-term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic-abiotic interactions.

Influence of SST Anomalies on Winter Turbulent Heat Fluxes in the Eastern Kuroshio–Oyashio Confluence Region

Abstract Variations in the turbulent heat flux (THF; the sum of the sensible and latent heat fluxes) in the eastern Kuroshio–Oyashio confluence region (EKOCR; 36°–40°N, 155°–160°E) were investigated over a period of 27 consecutive winters (December–February) from 1985/86 to 2011/12. The THF was calculated from a bulk formula using daily variables [surface wind speed, surface air specific humidity, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST)] of the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux) dataset and bulk coefficients based on the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) bulk flux algorithm 3.0. The winter THF over the EKOCR showed low-frequency variations, with larger THF values in the early 2000s and smaller values in the late 1990s and late 2000s. The heat release in the early 2000s was up to ~40% greater than that in the late 1990s and late 2000s. By performing experiments using combinations of daily raw data values and daily climatological data, the relative contributions of SST, surface air specific humidity, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed were quantitatively assessed in determining the THF over the EKOCR. Results showed that SST predominantly determines the THF: large amounts of heat are released during times of positive SST anomalies. By using Argo float (temperature–salinity) profiles of 2003–12 and a satellite altimetry dataset of 1992–2012, it was found that the warm–salty water transported by an occurrence of the Kuroshio bifurcation was responsible for the generation of positive SST anomalies in the EKOCR.

Estimating the sensitivity of regional dust sources to sea surface temperature patterns

AbstractExploring the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns on local climate in major dust source regions helps clarify our understanding of variability in the global dust cycle. In contrast to previous work, this research focuses explicitly on the influence of SST anomalies on dust emissions and attempts to explain the mechanisms by which SST anomalies affect seasonal dust emissions. This study investigates the seasonal sensitivity of mineral aerosol emissions to SST anomaly patterns from the Bodele Depression, West Africa, Sahel, Kalahari Desert, Arabian Desert, and Lake Eyre basin. The global teleconnection operator, which relates regional climate responses to SST anomaly patterns, is estimated for relevant variables in an ensemble of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 forced by randomly perturbed climatological SST fields. Variability in dust emissions from major dust sources is linked to tropical SST anomalies, particularly in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Teleconnections excited by remote SST anomalies typically impact dust emissions via changes in near‐surface wind speeds and friction velocity. However, SST‐driven impacts on the threshold friction velocity can be of the same order of magnitude as changes in the friction velocity, suggesting the impact of SST anomalies on precipitation and soil moisture is also significant. Identifying SST anomaly patterns as a component of internal variability in regional dust emissions helps characterize human influences on the dust cycle as well as improve predictions of climate, nutrient cycles, and human environments.

Ensembles of AGCM Two-Tier Predictions and Simulations of the Circulation Anomalies during Winter 1997–98

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the extratropical circulation during the El Nino winter of 1997-98 is studied through atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations. The model's midlatitude response is found to be very robust, of the correct amplitude, and to have a fairly realistic spatial structure. The sensitivity of the results to different aspects of the anomalous distributions of SST is analyzed. It is found that the extratropical circulation in the North Pacific-North American sector is significantly different if SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean are included. Using a comparison of observed and simulated 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies, it is argued that the modeled midlatitude impact of Indian Ocean SST anomalies is largely realistic. However, while the local sensitivity of the atmosphere to small differences in SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific can be substantial, the remote sensitivity in midlatitudes is small. Consistently, there is little difference between the simulated extratropical circulation anomalies obtained using SSTs predicted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in October 1997 and those obtained using observed tropical Pacific SSTs. Neither is there any detectable atmospheric signal associated with SST anomalies over the North Pacific. Analyses of the results presented here suggest that the influence of SST anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the selected ENSO event can be interpreted as the quasi-linear superposition of Rossby wave trains emanating from the subtropics of each ocean. An inspection of intraseasonal weather regimes suggests that the influence of tropical SST anomalies can also be described as a shift in the frequency of occurrence of the model's modes of intrinsic variability and a change in their amplitude. These findings suggest the potential utility of SST forecasts for the tropical Indian Ocean.