Influence Of Internal Variability Research Articles

Hawking Temperature Modification and the Physical Dynamics of Black Holes: A Study of the Influence of Internal and Cosmological Variables

<p>The main objective of the study is to develop a model that modifies the traditional Hawking temperature by considering the influence of internal variables such as radius, mass, electric charge, angular momentum, and cosmological constant. The research method involves mathematical analysis and computational modeling based on the modified Hawking temperature equation. The results show that the modified Hawking temperature produces non-linear corrections that show the interaction between black holes and the quantum structure of spacetime. graphical representations visualize the variation of Hawking temperature with changes in area, electric charge, angular momentum, and cosmological parameters. The implications of the research extend to the understanding of the thermal properties of black holes in the context of gravitational and quantum theories. The research identifies gaps in the knowledge of the effects of cosmological parameters on black hole thermodynamics and introduces Hawking temperature modifications that have not been mapped in detail before. The study concludes that the Hawking temperature modification provides a strong foundation for further research in black hole physics, particularly in the effect of physical and cosmological parameters on the thermal properties of black holes.</p>

The Model of Decision Making For Shopping At Factory Outlets

Initially, Factory Outlet (FO) referred to stores selling high-quality export ready-to-wear at affordable prices. However, the concept has grown to include a variety of household needs. To excel in this service-oriented industry, emphasis on customer satisfaction is paramount. The surge in world oil prices has had a ripple effect on the cost of essential commodities, resulting in a drain on the purchasing power of many people. However, a gradual shift occurred as Factory Outlets regained popularity due to their reputation for selling quality export goods at lower prices. Indonesia's consumerist tendencies are further fueling demand for these outlets, fueled by attractive discounts and tempting offers. The authors' curiosity was piqued by the lack of similar research on the subject. This research, in particular, explores the influence of individual external and internal factors on the shopping choices of Factory Outlet consumers. In the assessment of Simple Linear Regression 1 X1 to Y, the coefficient of determination is calculated as 0.188 or 18.8%. These results indicate that external factors hold an influence of 18.8% on decision making, while 81.2% (100% - 18.8%) can be attributed to other factors. The results of Simple Linear Regression 2, especially X2 to Y, obtained a coefficient of determination of 0.079 or equivalent to 7.9%. This shows that decision making is strongly influenced by internal factors, while other factors provide an explanation of 92.1% (100% - 7.9%). Multiple Linear Regression Analysis reveals that when X1 and X2 are calculated with Y, the influence of external variables on the decision making variable is determined to be 48.7%. The influence of internal variables on decision-making variables was found to be 7.3%. The combined influence of external and internal variables on decision-making variables is measured at 19.1%. Other variables outside the path analysis model have an effect of 80.9%.

Influence of internal variability on future changes in extreme wind speed over North America

Internal variability plays an important role in the projection of climate and extreme climate changes at regional scales. Here, we use large ensemble experiments from two different climate models [the Canadian Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CanESM2-LE) with 50 members and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE) with 40 members to investigate the influence of internal variability on the projection of extreme wind speed (extreme WS) in the future (2081–2100) relative to the present climatology (1986–2005) over North America. Generally, the spatial patterns of future changes in extreme WS across members in both ensembles exhibit quite large diversity for the whole year and winter, while consistent changes among members are found in summer. This indicates that the influence of internal variability on the future changes in extreme WS is higher in winter than summer. With enough members, the forced responses allow direct comparisons to demonstrate the model uncertainty. Increases in wintertime extreme WS at high latitudes and around the Hudson Bay, as well as decreases over the west-central USA and along the southwest coast of the domain, are largely influenced by the external forcing with small model uncertainty. Regions within the 40°–60°N latitudinal band of the domain are projected to experience external forced decrease in extreme WS in summer with high model consistency. Results from high-resolution of dynamical downscaling large ensemble simulations (CanRCM4-LE) are comparable with those of its driving models (CanESM2-LE) and can provide detailed information in regions with sea–land contrast and complex topography, which is of great vital for the local policy maker.

Internal Variability of All‐Sky and Clear‐Sky Surface Solar Radiation on Decadal Timescales

AbstractInternal variability comprises all processes that occur within the climate system without any natural or anthropogenic forcing. Climate‐driving variables like the surface solar radiation (SSR) are shown to exhibit unforced trends (i.e., trends due to internal variability) of magnitudes comparable to the magnitude of the forced signal even on decadal timescales. We use annual mean data from 50 models participating in the preindustrial control experiment (piControl) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐Phase 6 (CMIP6) to give quantitative grid‐box specific estimates of the magnitudes of unforced trends. To characterize a trend distribution, symmetrical around 0, we use the 75th percentile of all possible values, which corresponds to a positive trend with 25% chance of occurrence. For 30‐year periods and depending on geographical location, this trend has a magnitude between 0.15 and 2.1 W m−2/decade for all‐sky and between 0.04 and 0.38 W m−2/decade for clear‐sky SSR. The corresponding area‐weighted medians are 0.69 W m−2/decade for all‐sky trends and 0.17 W m−2/decade for clear‐sky trends. The influence of internal variability is on average six times smaller in clear‐sky, compared to all‐sky SSR. The relative uncertainties in the physical representation, derived from the CMIP6 inter‐model spread, are ±32% for all‐sky and ±43% for clear‐sky SSR trends. Reasons for differences between models like horizontal resolution, aerosol handling, and the representation of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena are investigated. The results can be used in the analysis of observational time series by attributing a probability for a trend to be caused by internal variability, given its magnitude, length, and location.

Asset Growth In Sharia Insurance: Macroeconomic and Internal Factors of Sharia Insurance Companies in Indonesia

Sharia insurance presents an alternative system in insurance operation with risk sharing in ta'awun (cooperative). Knowledge and insight into reality and trends are used to assess and decide sharia insurance operationalization policies. This study analyzed the growth of Islamic insurance company assets in Indonesia in 2016-2020. The data is sourced from the Sharia Financial Statement Statistics published by OJK and Bank Indonesia Statistics from 2016 - 2020 with multiple linear regression analysis methods. This research aims to find out the influence of internal variables and external variables on the assets growth of sharia insurance in Indonesia. In this study, there are two variables, namely dependent variables and independent variables. Dependent variables are the assets growth of sharia insurance in Indonesia (PERASSET), and independent variables, namely GDP (GDP), inflation (INF), contribution (KONB), investment (INVEST), and operating costs (BOPERATE). The results of this study GDP, Inflation, Contributes, and Investment affects Sharia insurance's assets growth. While operating costs do not affect the assets growth of sharia insurance companies. Keywords: Sharia Insurance, Asset Growth, GDP, Inflation, Contribution, Investment, Operating Costs

Evaluating simulated climate patterns from the CMIP archives using satellite and reanalysis datasets using the Climate Model Assessment Tool (CMATv1)

Abstract. An objective approach is presented for scoring coupled climate simulations through an evaluation against satellite and reanalysis datasets during the satellite era (i.e., since 1979). The approach is motivated, described, and applied to available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) archives and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Version 1 Large Ensemble archives with the goal of robustly benchmarking model performance and its evolution across CMIP generations. A scoring system is employed that minimizes sensitivity to internal variability, external forcings, and model tuning. Scores are based on pattern correlations of the simulated mean state, seasonal contrasts, and ENSO teleconnections. A broad range of feedback-relevant fields is considered and summarized on discrete timescales (climatology, seasonal, interannual) and physical realms (energy budget, water cycle, dynamics). Fields are also generally chosen for which observational uncertainty is small compared to model structural differences. Highest mean variable scores across models are reported for well-observed fields such as sea level pressure, precipitable water, and outgoing longwave radiation, while the lowest scores are reported for 500 hPa vertical velocity, net surface energy flux, and precipitation minus evaporation. The fidelity of models is found to vary widely both within and across CMIP generations. Systematic increases in model fidelity in more recent CMIP generations are identified, with the greatest improvements occurring in dynamic and energetic fields. Such examples include shortwave cloud forcing and 500 hPa eddy geopotential height and relative humidity. Improvements in ENSO scores with time are substantially greater than for climatology or seasonal timescales. Analysis output data generated by this approach are made freely available online from a broad range of model ensembles, including the CMIP archives and various single-model large ensembles. These multimodel archives allow for an expeditious analysis of performance across a range of simulations, while the CESM large ensemble archive allows for estimation of the influence of internal variability on computed scores. The entire output archive, updated and expanded regularly, can be accessed at http://webext.cgd.ucar.edu/Multi-Case/CMAT/index.html (last access: 18 August 2020).

Multidecadal Changes in Meteorological Drought Severity and Their Drivers in Mainland China

AbstractThis study analyzes the multidecadal changes in the severity of extreme meteorological droughts at the regional scale in China during 1951–2017. Dominance analysis is applied to multiple linear regression models to quantify the relative influence of global warming and internal variability on the meteorological drought severity in nine climate regions of China to understand which drivers are the most significant for each region and how they are likely to influence the severity of droughts in the near future (10–20 years). The influence of internal variability is represented by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The PDO and global warming are found to have a stronger influence on the multidecadal variability of drought severity in China than the AMO. Global warming is found to be the more dominant driver of multidecadal variability of drought severity in the western parts of China, whereas the PDO is found to have a more dominant influence in the eastern parts of China. In the near future, global warming and the PDO are both likely to contribute to reduction of drought severity in Xinjiang, Northwest, and Tibet regions. The positive phase of the PDO is also expected to reduce the severity of droughts in Inner Mongolia and South China. On the other hand, both the PDO and global warming are expected to contribute to increase in drought severity in North and Southwest China in the near future.

Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum

The Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) fluctuates on interannual and multidecadal timescales under the influence of internal variability and external forcings. Here, we provide observational evidence that the 11-y solar cycle (SC) affects the PWC on decadal timescales. We observe a robust reduction of east-west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following 1-2 y. This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific paired with an eastward shift of convective precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. We show that this is initiated by a thermodynamical response of the global hydrological cycle to surface warming, further amplified by atmosphere-ocean coupling, leading to larger positive ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific than expected from simple radiative forcing considerations. The observed solar modulation of the PWC is supported by a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulations forced only by SC irradiance variations. We highlight the importance of a muted hydrology mechanism that acts to weaken the PWC. Demonstration of this mechanism acting on the 11-y SC timescale adds confidence in model predictions that the same mechanism also weakens the PWC under increasing greenhouse gas forcing.

The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity

Abstract. Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850–2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.

Analysis of winter rainfall change statistics over the Western Himalaya: the influence of internal variability and topography

ABSTRACTThis study investigated a detailed picture of some statistical properties of winter rainfall on monthly and seasonal basis over the Western Himalaya (WH) using rain gauge station data during 1902–2005. Results showed a significant shift in the rainfall and rainy‐day pattern during 1960–1970 in most of the stations over the WH. State‐wise analysis indicated that Himachal Pradesh has received more rainfall (50%) and rainy day (∼57%) compared to the state of Uttarakhand. Station data revealed that past winter rainfall has changed in a periodic manner with averaged periodicity (epoch) of 20 years in which 1920–1940 was characterized by excess rainfall period while 1970–1990 was depicted as deficient rainfall period. Most of the rain gauge stations showed declining trends of rainfall and rainy days while the intensity of rainfall indicated increasing trends during the 1902–2005 period. Regional‐averaged winter rainfall and rainy day have shown a significant declining trend during 1902–2005. It was found that the rainfall trends are mainly arising due to internal variability although short‐term trends (signal) override the internal variability (noise) in some cases. Among five goodness‐of‐fit distribution, the generalized extreme value (GEV) has emerged as the best fit for the majority of the station locations. Estimated monthly assured rainfall at 75% probability level revealed a range of 100–150 mm, which will be useful for agricultural activities over WH region. The impact of topography on rainfall and rainy day indicated increasing trends up to a certain elevation (∼1356 m), thereafter they showed decreasing trends that has been described through a second‐order polynomial fit.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%–35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%–91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from −3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Correction: Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends

Correction: Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends

The Study of Space Charge Effects by Spectral Response, Steady State Charge Collection and Transient Photocurrents in Thick a-Si:H Pin-Diodes

AbstractCharge collection, transient photocurrents and collection efficiency under additional bias illumination were used to characterize 3–4 micron thick a-Si:H pin-diodes. The wavelength dependent decrease or increase in the spectral response, depending on the bias flux and absorption depth, is related to the distribution of the electric field, recombination and majority carrier diffusion. At higher photon flux an overshoot in the transient photocurrent after switch-on of steady illumination indicates the time scale for the changes in internal variables. Collection efficiencies under large bias monochromatic photon flux well in excess of the maximum value of 100 % for probe beam generated carriers are observed with a large amplification ratio. These efficiencies sensitively depend both on the applied voltage and the defect density. Numerical modelling reveals the influence of internal variables on the transient and steady state photocurrents under the different illumination conditions.