Influence Of Demographic Changes Research Articles

Weakening Demographic Dividend in India

Abstract This study examines the influence of demographic changes on India's economic growth from 1999 to 2019, emphasizing the impact of the rising working-age population on state domestic product per capita and sectoral value-added. While the overall influence of the working-age population ratio and core working-age proportions on per capita economic growth is limited, a higher proportion of high-skilled workers and urban residents positively affects per capita output. Furthermore, our analysis highlights sector-specific effects, with particular significance observed in the industry sector, where the influence of the working-age population is most pronounced.

On the Association Between Demographic Structural Change and the Effectiveness of Nurse Staffing Policy for Inpatient Care: Evidence from Taiwan.

This study investigates the influence of demographic changes on the effectiveness of hospital nurse staffing policy, measured by the cumulative response of inpatient care quality to adjustments in hospital nurse staffing levels in Taiwan. The research design utilized in this study aligns with the observational time-series methodology, and a total of 99 monthly time-series observations were collected from multiple databases administered by the Taiwan government over the period from January 2015 to March 2023. Specifically, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive and autoregressive distributed lag models were employed to investigate the association between age distribution and nurse staffing policy effectiveness. The time-varying impulse responses of the unplanned 14-day readmission rate after discharge to changes in nurse staffing levels indicate a positive association between patient-to-nurse ratios and unplanned 14-day readmission rates across various types of hospitals. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of hospitals' nurse staffing policy is observed to diminish with population aging, particularly evident in medical centers and regional hospitals. Policymakers should establish lower mandated patient-to-nurse ratios, grounded in practical nurse workforce planning, to address the needs of an aging society and enhance inpatient care quality through improved nurse staffing in hospitals.

Influence of demographic change on the demand for radiotherapy using forecasted predictions for prostate cancer in Germany

PurposeDemographic change will lead to an increase in age-associated cancers. The demand for primary treatment, especially oncologic therapies, is difficult to predict. This work is an attempt to project the demand for radiation therapy (RT) in 2030, taking into account demographic changes using prostate cancer (PC) as an example.Materials and methodsUsing the GENESIS database of the Federal Statistical Office, we retrieved demographic population projections for 2030 and retrospective demographic surveys from 1999 to 2019. Additionally, we queried incidence rates for PC in the respective age groups of 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, and +85 years from 1999–2019 via the Federal Cancer Registry of the Robert Koch Institute. We used a regression method to determine the age-dependent correlation between the incidence of PC and the population size of the respective age group by combining the data from 1999 to 2019. This information was used to calculate the incidence rates in the age groups of the expected population for 2030 and the expected new cases of PC in 2030. Finally, we extrapolated the indications for the demand for RT based on data from the Report on Cancer Incidence in Germany from 2016.ResultsConsidering a population-dependent incidence rate, an increase in new cases of PC is expected. This increase is particularly evident in the age groups of 70–74 and 80–84 years. With regards to RT, the estimate indicates an overall increase of 27.4% in demand. There is also a shift in RT demands towards older patients, especially in the 80- to 84-year-old age group.ConclusionWe observe an age-associated increase in primary cases of PC. This is likely to result in an increased demand for RT. The exact demand cannot be predicted. However, trends can be estimated to plan for the demand. This, though, requires a good database from cancer registries.

Challenges of demographic changes and digitalization on eco-innovation and the circular economy: Qualitative insights from companies

The overuse of natural resources through excessive consumptions has led to environmental problems. As a result, there have been calls for a more sustainable, circular and digital future. Research on the topics of eco-innovations and the circular economy have made significant headways toward identifying sustainable solutions, however, the influence of demographic changes and digitization remain underexplored. Therefore, the current study investigates how demographic changes and digitization effect business practices related to eco-innovations and the circular economy. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with ten companies in Slovenia that actively adopt and develop eco-innovations, and moreover employ the principles of a circular economy. These semi-structured interviews specifically explore the impact of digitalization and demographic changes on eco-innovation and how these impacts enable the development of the circular economy. Results suggest that companies are adjusting their products and services to meet changing demands from demographic trends. Relatedly, digitization has allowed them to create new products and optimize existing ones in more sustainable ways, i.e., having less harmful effects on the environment. Specifically, digitization gave them better control over the eco-innovation process, increasing transparency, control, and manageability of the technological process in a way that reduced energy consumption and lessoned the environmental impact. These results are integrated with the existing literature to identify new insights related to the adoption and implementation of eco-innovations in the circular economy.

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.

Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidencetrends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of theincidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.

Simulation modeling for predicting hospital admissions and bed utilisation

Demographic research of world population shows that societies are ageing. The ongoing changes in the population structure will require appropriate quantitative and qualitative adjustments in health services to meet the needs of society. Simulation methods turn out to be helpful in these kinds of analyses. In this paper, the authors present a case study on using discrete event simulation (DES) to support decision-making in the field of hospital bed management in the light of demographic changes. The case study was elaborated for one of the Polish district hospitals. A discrete simulation model was built to simulate admissions to two hospital wards: pediatric and geriatric. A series of experiments was carried out as based on real data extracted from the hospital database and forecasted demographic trends elaborated by The Central Statistical Office (CSO). The influence of demographic changes on hospital admissions in the chosen age-gender cohorts was explored, examining different variants of hospital bed availability. The results of the experiments show that demographic trends significantly influence healthcare admission and bed utilisation. The reduction in the number of admissions to the pediatric ward by about 6% results in a change in average bed utilisation from 57.90% to 54.06%. With about 12% more admissions to the geriatric ward, the change is from 68.88% to 75.59%.

인구구조 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 효과: VARX 모형을 이용한 한국(1987～2017) 사례 분석

인구구조 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 효과: VARX 모형을 이용한 한국(1987～2017) 사례 분석

Generational accounts and demographic dividend in Russia

The paper presents a modern methodology for estimating the impact of different age groups on the production and distribution of national income, called national transfer (generational) accounts. The human economic lifecycle is divided into stages defined by the ratio of labour income to consumption. In middle ages, gained income is higher than current consumption. The resulting surplus of resources is supposed to cover the income deficit in older and younger age groups. Estimates of the deficit or surplus at different ages are made for the Russian population for 2013 based on the results of age profiles taken from administrative sources and surveys. In the paper we also estimate the projected changes in the lifecycle deficit under different demographic development scenarios. Age profiles of labour income and consumption are used to calculate the effective economic support and the influence of demographic changes in Russia on economic growth rates in the near future.

Shrinking municipalities and their budgetary revenues on the example of the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship in Poland

Research background: Adverse demographic changes in many local administration units around the world lead to their shrinkage. These processes are usually accompanied by economic changes. The economic consequences of shrinkage can be assessed based on the budgetary revenues of local units, which are largely dependent on the local population and the demographic structure.
 Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to evaluate the shrinkage of Polish municipalities and the effects of population change on the budgetary revenues of local administration units. The analysis was conducted in selected municipalities of the Warmian-Masurian voivodeship, which is the least economically developed region in Poland. The analysis covered the period between 2012 and 2017.
 Methods: The shrinkage of municipalities was evaluated with the use of the methods proposed by the Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCIRN). According to this methodology, a local unit shrinks when the annual decrease in population exceeds 0.15% for more than five consecutive years. The influence of demographic changes on the budgetary revenues of municipalities was evaluated with the use of linear correlation analysis (Pearson's r) as well as a survey conducted among municipal treasurers in the Warmian-Masurian voivodeship. 
 Findings & Value added: Symptoms of shrinkage were described in selected municipalities of the Warmian-Masurian voivodeship. The presence of correlations between different categories of budgetary revenues and demographic changes was confirmed. The results of the study and the formulated practical recommendations constitute constructive inputs to the discussion on possible solutions to the analyzed problem. They can also be used in further research to analyze other aspects of municipal budgets (the consequences of depopulation for budgetary expenditures, municipal debt, etc.) or conduct comparisons with other regions in Poland and in the world.

Wpływ zmian demograficznych na służbę krwi w Polsce — logistyka jako remedium na przyszłość

Wpływ zmian demograficznych na służbę krwi w Polsce — logistyka jako remedium na przyszłość

The influence of demographic changes on the development potential of communes of the West-Pomeranian province

The influence of demographic changes on the development potential of communes of the West-Pomeranian province

Informal and atypical work as the 'New Normality' in the world and Ukraine

The article describes the modern understanding of the category of "New Normality" in the field of employment, including its informal segment. In the economic discourse of the problems of informal employment, the authors indicate two meanings of the category "New Normality": the first one characterizes informal employment as a new objective norm (as a characteristic, widespread, and stable phenomenon) of the present and the future; and the second one reflects the transformation of the sphere of employment, including its undeclared segment, in the process of creating a "New Normality" under the influence of demographic changes, globalization, digitalization and other global trends. Analyzed the main global trends contributing to the normalization of informal employment in modern macroeconomic development. Particular attention is paid to the trend of digitalization and significant social challenges due to its spread, first of all, the narrowing of the field of social and labor relations, the growth of unemployment, and the spread of informal employment. Established the factors that determine undeclared labor activity as a new norm of functioning of the global labor market. The authors substantiate the key systemic risks of transforming a high level of undeclared work into a "New Normality" of Ukraine's social and economic development. They include structural degradation of the national economy; demographic limitation for the potential of long-term economic growth; general institutional weakness and the strengthening of destructive institutions; high imbalance in the professional structure of labor demand and supply; and a significant deficit of decent work. One of the priorities of the national policy of state regulation should be the development of mechanisms to counteract and minimize the influence of the above mentioned five systemic factors, which would lead to the transformation of undeclared work in Ukraine into a "New Normality" of its socio-economic progress.

Межпоколенческие счета и демографический дивиденд в России

В предлагаемой статье представлена современная методология оценки вклада отдельных возрастных групп в производство и распределение национального дохода – национальные трансфертные (межпоколенческие) счета. Экономический жизненный цикл человека делится на стадии, которые определяются соотношением трудового дохода и потребления. В средних возрастах получаемый доход превышает текущее потребление. Возникает избыток или профицит ресурсов, который идет на покрытие дефицита дохода для обеспечения потребления в младших и старших возрастных группах. Оценки дефицита или профицита в отдельных возрастах выполнены для российского населения по состоянию на 2013 г. на основе построенных по результатам обследований и административных источников возрастных профилей доходов и потребления. Дается оценка изменений дефицита жизненного цикла на перспективу при разных сценариях демографического развития. Возрастные профили доходов и потребления были использованы для оценки эффективной экономической поддержки и влияния демографических изменений в России на темпы экономического роста в ближайшем будущем.

Predicting blood supply and demand in the next 20 years with population ageing in China: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe fast ageing of the general population in China will increase the demand for blood products, which may lead to a severe imbalance between blood supply and demand. This study aims to predict the changes in blood supply and demand by 2035 in China. MethodsBased on data from the China Statistical Yearbook (2016), blood transfusion industry development report of China (2016 and 2017), and blood demand information of a tertiary hospital the per person blood supply and demand for different age groups were calculated, which were then, together with the predicted population structure, used to predict blood supply and demand trends between 2015 and 2035. All predictions were made assuming a relatively stable per capita blood supply and demand, enabling the influence of demographic changes on future blood supply and demand to be analysed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of some other factors on the predicted blood supply and demand. FindingsAccording to our predictions, blood demand was likely to exceed supply at around 2016, and the widening gap between supply and demand would reach 2·5 × 106 L by 2035, with a 15% decrease in blood supply and a 43% increase in demand. In addition, the magnitude of increase in blood demand is predicted to rise with age groups, with the highest growth rate in blood demand predicted in the 80 years and above age group (123%). After taking a 5·95% blood discard rate into consideration, the gap is predicted to increase to 2·8 × 106 L by 2035. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the annual increase in blood supply required to meet blood demand in the next 20 years, with a lowest predicted rate of 1·64%. and a highest predicted rate of 2·25%. InterpretationCompared with other developed countries, China will come under even greater pressure of the imbalance between blood supply and demand and it is imperative to implement new strategies and measures to solve future blood supply and demand problems. FundingThis work was supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (number 2016-I2M-3-024).

Demographic change and long‐term growth in China: Past developments and the future challenge of aging

AbstractThis paper explores the influence of demographic changes, particularly the sharp decline in fertility and the evolution of the population age structure, on economic development in China. A general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous decisions on fertility, educational investment, and factor accumulation is employed for our analysis. The family support provided by children to the elderly, which is a component of traditional culture in Chinese society, is also considered. We find that technological changes matter most for growth. Demographic changes, on average, account for approximately 4% of the growth in China, while the effect is negative in the pre‐1980 period. With an extension to include population aging, we find that aging is not necessarily adverse to growth. This finding reflects the fact that a longer life expectancy requires more savings and makes educational investment in children more attractive, which accelerates physical capital and human capital accumulation. However, if the social norm of family support for aging parents is strict, aging will significantly increase the children's burden and crowd out physical and human capital accumulation.

Influence of demographic changes on the number of visits to hospital emergency departments: 13 years’ experience

Abstract Objective The aim of the present study is to describe the trend in volume and age-specific rates in visits to the paediatric emergency department of a university teaching hospital in Cantabria (Spain) from January 2001 to December 2013, and evaluate the influence of population growth on emergency department use. Material and methods A retrospective study was conducted to analyze all emergency department visits over a 13 year period. Simple and polynomial linear regressions were used to assess the relationship between population size and emergency department attendance rates across 2 age groups (0–2 and 3–14 years). Results From 2001 to 2013, attendance in the emergency department increased by 14.1%, whereas the paediatric population rose by 26.3%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged Conclusions Those aged 0–2 years presented a steady increase in ED visits related to population growth, whereas children aged 3–14 years experienced a “saturation of the demand” and a reduction in ED presentations.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany \u2013 a mathematical modelling study

BackgroundEpidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years.MethodsWe used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population.ResultsProjected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios.ConclusionDemographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Modern-day Russia and the problems of the “silver” generation in the digital millennium

An important peculiarity of the future economy is principal change in the labor market structure determined by demographic factors one of which is significant increase of pension aged population. This age group becomes the key potential resource of increasing the number of employed people in all the developed and in some developing countries. Population with graying hair becomes a powerful resource for development of economy of a new type which has received a poetic name – “silver” economy. Studying the problems and prospects of developing the “silver” economy is one of the most actual scientific tasks of the modern time. The second important tendency of the modern era is vigorous development of technologies and transition to digital economy. Successful involvement in the changing labor market requires confident mastering of modern informational communicational technologies. However, this task is a certain challenge for representatives of the “silver generation”. A review of foreign studies on the problems of the influence of demographic changes at the labor market of developed countries on the structure and quality of labor force is represented in the article; a dynamics of using modern digital technologies by representatives of the “silver generation” is described; the instruments of stimulating the use of modern information technologies in older age groups are distinguished. The analysis of demographic tendencies in Russia is conducted; the necessity of involving employable representatives of older age groups in the labor market is justified. On the basis of the empirical study undertaken by the authors, the peculiarities of value orientations at work places of representatives of different age groups are distinguished and characterized, and also key psychological characteristics of representatives of the elder generations of employees as members of work collectives are described.

Organization of out-patient psychiatric care in dementia and cognitive impairment. Part I: Memory clinics and Alzheimer's disease centers

The review of publications on an influence of demographic changes in the population on the prevalence of old age dementias and a scale of burden of dementias in modern society are presented. This paper is the first part of the review. It presents the necessity of new forms of out-patient care to the aged with cognitive impairment. The author reviews the history of creation of memory clinics and Alzheimer's disease centers.

The influence of demographic factors on the supply of company training places in Germany

Background: In the German dual system of vocational education and training, the question arises of whether and how enterprises react to demographic changes by adjusting their supply of training places. Methods: We conduct a time series on Western German data from 1970 to 2011 and construct a panel data set from 1977 to 2011 based on data of the West German states (“Bundeslander”) to estimate the influence of demographic changes over time. Results: We can show that demographic factors strongly influenced the Federal Republic prior to 1990. After the reunification, a positive influence of demographic factors is still observed but only for young people with higher levels of education; in large part, factors related to economic growth and the job market dominate. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, compared to prior times, policy makers nowadays only have limited abilities to influence the number of training places offered by companies through appeals to community spirit. Instead, strategies of gaining additional training places should be geared towards the economic interests of enterprises.