Inflationary Situation Research Articles

An investigation of inflationary and bounce cosmology within the context of f(Q) gravity

In this work, we have examined the metric affine-based geometric model [Formula: see text] to investigate inflationary cosmology and bouncing cosmology. The four bouncing models we have examined are the exponential, matter, symmetric and super-bounce models. Furthermore, in the inflationary situation, we have employed a scalar field to test whether or not kinetic energy is dominated and whether or not all of the bouncing models are consistent with inflationary conditions. We have investigated various energy conditions for various scale factors and verified whether or not these scale factors are consistent with inflationary scenarios within the framework of inflationary cosmology under [Formula: see text]. In the end, we have shown that the bouncing scale factor under the polynomial model ([Formula: see text]) of [Formula: see text] gravity in a single scalar field is compatible with the inflationary scenario.

The Role of Government Revenue and Expenditure Shocks in Changes in the Inflation of the Iranian Economy in Different Conditions of the Inflationary Situation (Considering the Various Components of Government Income and Expenditure)

The Role of Government Revenue and Expenditure Shocks in Changes in the Inflation of the Iranian Economy in Different Conditions of the Inflationary Situation (Considering the Various Components of Government Income and Expenditure)

Risk Management and Responses of Banks under COVID-19 and Fed Rate Hike

This paper aims to study how banks carry out risk management and how to avoid systemic risks in the banking industry under the interest rate hike policy in the post-epidemic era. This paper divides bank risks into four main aspects to analyze the impact of sharp interest rate hikes on bank risk management in combination with the acquisition of Credit Suisse and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank. They are credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk (specifically interest rate risk), and systemic risk. After research, this paper finds that during the COVID-19 period, including interest rate hikes, governments have introduced corresponding policies for risk management. Moreover, when the market risk puts too much pressure on the bank, it will lead to credit risk and then liquidity risk, which may eventually trigger systemic risk under the joint effect. Given the current high inflation situation, the high level of interest rates will remain for a long time. Therefore, banks should do as much as possible to manage risks and reduce the possibility of triggering systemic risks.

THE EFFECT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE VOLATILITY ON INFLATION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL APPROACH

India has been experiencing the issue of rising crude oil prices since 2017, after a low-price regime from 2014 to 2017. Inflation was also moderate during the low-crude oil price regime. It has been empirically seen that a rise in crude oil prices exerts a significant impact on the inflationary situation of the nation. Rising oil prices and their spillover into higher general price levels might exacerbate the crisis in a nation that is already struggling with the declining demand for investment and consumption. The domestic oil price needs to be controlled by the government to boost demand while controlling inflation without putting further stress on the populace. Against this background, the present research aims to investigate the relationship between the crude oil price and the inflation rate in the nation using the data from 1991 to 2020 (before Covid years). This paper also aims to investigate the effect of crude oil prices and inflation on economic growth in India. The paper has used an Autoregressive Distributed lag model to investigate the long-run and short-run association between them. Our analysis shows that the prices of crude oil have a statistically significant impact on India’s inflation rate over the long and short terms. KEYWORDS: Inflation, Crude oil price, India, Spillover, ARDL, Granger Causality, GDP

Analisis Implementasi Strategi Cross Selling Oleh Frontliner Pada PT Pegadaian CP Basen Yogyakarta

The rise in energy prices and reference interest rates, including in Indonesia, has caused inflation to spike. PT Pegadaian offers a solution for individuals facing financial difficulties during inflation by providing loans with valuable items as collateral. To adapt to the inflationary situation, PT Pegadaian employs cross-selling strategies, primarily through face-to-face interactions and social media. This study, conducted at PT Pegadaian CP Basen Yogyakarta, aims to understand the implementation of cross-selling by frontliners and identify challenges. This research falls under a field study with a qualitative descriptive method, utilizing both primary and secondary data sources. Data collection techniques include literature research and field research. The results of the analysis reveal that the implementation of the cross-selling strategy remains unchanged, similar to the period before the inflation increase. This involves offering Pegadaian products through face-to-face interactions and social media. Challenges faced by Frontliner Pegadaian CP Basen Yogyakarta in implementing the cross-selling strategy include limited marketing time, customers already using similar products from other institutions, and a lack of customer knowledge regarding the variety of products offered by Pegadaian

Inventory Decisions Under Stochastic Demand Scenario with High Inflation Rate – Machine Learning Approach

This study examined the effects of hyperinflation on inventory decisions using a real-world dataset obtained from a leading retail company in Sri Lanka during the hyperinflation period of 2022 and developed a Machine Learning model to forecast optimal order quantities with the intention of lowering inventory holding costs. Six distinct ML techniques were selected to identify the best ML model. Root Mean Squared Error and R Squared values were used to rigorously evaluate the performance of the six ML techniques. The results suggest Random Forest as the most appropriate ML model to forecast optimal order quantities during a high inflation situation.

The Impact of Fluctuations in the Pounds Value on Commercial Banks Activities Based on Mini-budget and Banks Interest Rate Hikes

Since August 2022, the British pound exchange rate has continued to decline due to multiple factors such as the global epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Against the background of the cost of living crisis with high inflation, especially the sharp rise in energy costs, the British government issued a new tax cut, namely the mini-budget, but the implementation effect is very poor; Subsequently, the Bank of England adopted successive interest rate hikes in an attempt to stabilize the value of the pound and temper the general situation of inflation. This paper critically evaluates the impact of the fluctuation of the value of sterling on the activities of commercial banks in the financial market and analyzes the reasons, advantages, and disadvantages. Commercial banks can benefit from sterling volatility in several ways, such as generating higher trading revenues, enhancing asset liquidity, attracting more capital inflows and trading opportunities, and increasing equity market capitalization. On the other hand, a similar sterling appreciation could have multiple negative effects on commercial banking operations, including risk management, net profits, policy interest rates, and international competition. For the development prospects of commercial banks, it is recommended that in the context of the overall global economic downturn, timely adjust their operations and strategies to adapt to these changes, to withstand the business risks related to exchange rate fluctuations, such as changes in interest rates, interest spreads, and capital costs.

Relation Between Inflation and Capital Market in India

Capital market has significant influence on the inflationary situation in an economy both in the short run and in the long run. The general determinants which affect capital market are share indices, stock prices, prices of gold and silver, interest rate, exchange rate and even money supply can be treated as influencing variable when money is treated as capital. In this paper the author examined the impact of capital market on inflation in India during 1980-2022 taking CPI and WPI as the indicators of inflation and gold price, silver price, BSE index, BSE market capitalization, money supply and rupee dollar nominal exchange rate are considered as the indicators of capital market. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to verify unit root for all variables including break unit roots and the author calculated growth rates during 1980 – 2022 using the simple semi-log linear trend model. Author applied Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction models among the variables in both the cases of CPI and WPI and calculated short run causality through Wald test and long run causality through cointegrating equation. In VECM, the paper found one significant cointegrating equation in case of CPI and found three significant cointegrating equations in WPI. The paper found that CPI has long run causal relationships with BSE index, BSE market capitalisation, money supply and rupee dollar exchange rate and WPI has long run cointegrating relationships with BSE market capitalisation, money supply and rupee dollar exchange rate respectively. Rupee dollar exchange rate has short run causal relationships with CPI and again CPI and BSE index has bidirectional short run causality. According to impulse response functions, the responses of CPI to gold price, BSE market capitalization and money supply have been approaching towards equilibrium but finally diverged away from equilibrium. There are significant short run causalities from BSE index and money supply to WPI. The impulse response of WPI to gold price, silver price, BSE index, BSE market capitalisation and exchange rate of rupee have been converging towards equilibrium many times although diverged finally. The model can be modified by including interest rate, share prices, bond prices under monthly data analysis.

Impact of COVID-19 on Inflation Measurement

The COVID-19 pandemic influences peoples everyday living as well as the functioning of the society in many aspects including healthcare, government policies and so on. The effects that act on economics and finance are nonnegligible. There are changes in peoples investment expectations and strategies when taking the current inflation situation into consideration. Moreover, citizens of the United States change their consumption preferences correspondingly, which can have a considerable effect on the United States economy. In this paper, the author will examine how the COVID-19 pandemic effects these aspects in the United States using inflation situation as a parameter and indicator. The author will largely focus on the historical data of GDP deflator, inflation rate, and CPI. The first two indexes are significant and common indicators when reviewing inflation situations, while the third index reveals inflation situation as well as changes of peoples consumption habits. Based on the historical data, the author will then estimate the future trend of inflation situations, and finally provide some suggestions based on the analysis of the historical data.

Inflation Measurement in the Era of COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have led to instability in the global economy and serious inflation in various countries, mainly due to sudden changes in household consumption patterns, countries differ in their initial response to the outbreak and the implementation of relevant policies, the sharp rise in energy prices and the monetary policies of various countries. The Chinese market has been the least affected due to China's timely control of the outbreak and the implementation of relevant policies to promote the economy in the later stage, while the US and European markets have not recovered to the pre-epidemic economic level so far. This paper analyzes the CPI and core-CPI data of the United States, Europe and China since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, in order to judge the inflation situation of the United States, Europe and China under the double blow of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Competent retrofitting policy and inflation resilience: The cheapest energy is that which you don't use

Given that it is widely acknowledged that the cheapest energy is that which you don't use, we take a tangential approach to issues of energy prices and inflation and focus on energy efficiency policy that reduces demand at source. Our focus is housing retrofitting from an institutional or framework perspective. We briefly set out what retrofitting is (since this is a moving target), and what the need for it is in the UK. We then focus on the Climate Change Committee's current assessment of policy. This brings to the fore the government's minimalist approach to ‘developing a market’. We argue that this approach invokes an individualised market psychology which is both conceptually and practically problematic, given the need for urgency and the current situation of inflation and uncertainty. We conclude by suggesting a fundamental rethink is required.

Use of rain water in floor washing and garden irrigation: a case study

The socioeconomic context brought by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, caused a crisis in the world economy. Faced with this situation of inflation and the rise of the dollar, access to basic items such as water and cooking gas has become an obstacle for the needy population. There are alternatives to overcome water scarcity, and one of them is the use of water harvesting systems with low-cost technologies, which facilitate replication in environments that do not have a water distribution network, allowing the economically disadvantaged population access the water. This work analyzes the use of rainwater in garden irrigation and floor washing in a public building. The case study was carried out at the Civil Court and Consumer Relations Court in Camaragibe, PE. The rainfall index and the history of water consumption were analyzed, as well as the analysis of rainwater in the study region. Reservoir simulations and economic analysis were performed using the NETUNO software. The economic simulation resulted in the value of R$3,000.00 (three thousand reais), and a payback time of 5 years. After analyzing the simulations and the results of the rainwater samples, as well as complying with the requirements of the ABNT 15527/2019 standard, it can be inferred that the implementation of rainwater harvesting for non-potable use is feasible.Keywords: Harvesting rainwater. Sustainability. Low cost technology.

The inflation situation in Poland in 2022/23

The inflation situation in Poland in 2022/23

Current Scenario of Tea Garden Workers in Bangladesh: Time Demands to Stop the Zero-sum Game

The objective of this article is to highlight the latest phenomenon of tea garden laborers by outlining a dire picture of Bangladesh's tea industry. This article uses desk-based research and secondary data analysis to illustrate the current situation of Bangladeshi tea garden workers in the agro-business industry. To determine the real circumstances, the researchers studied several public interview quotes. It describes the current phenomenon of tea garden laborers to illustrate the inequality and injustice that exist in Bangladesh's agro-business sector. Researchers have discovered that because of their poor pay, the standard of living, and other rights, workers in tea gardens are less happy in the inflationary situation of Bangladesh. Researchers also discovered that both sides lacked accurate information. Researchers may get knowledge about the labor shortage in the tea sector, and professionals can gain knowledge about tea garden-related agro-business in Bangladesh. It is past time to go from a zero-sum game to a non-zero-sum game where everyone wins. For academics and practitioners, the results have significant implications.

Analysis of Key Drivers and Forecast for the Singapore Dollar

This paper analyzes the key drivers for the change of the Singapore dollar and makes predictions for its future trend. First, the author focuses on trade by discussing the GDP and current account of Singapore, mainly in terms of services. Second, the author focuses on inflation by discussing the current situation of inflation and Monetary Authority of Singapore’s monetary policy. In the end, the author forecasts that the exchange rate of the SGD against the CNY is expected to fluctuate in the short-time and strengthen in the long-time.

Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation: Evidence from India

This study examined the asymmetric effect of fiscal deficit, money supply, and exchange rate on inflation over 1991-2016. The study employed the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model (NARDL) to achieve the objectives. The results provided evidence in favour of the asymmetric effect. Further, the results showed the positive and negative changes in fiscal deficit on inflation differently. The results also highlighted that the money supply created an inflationary situation more than the fiscal deficit, whereas the exchange rate promoted inflation. So, the policy maker should be much bothered about money supply rather than a fiscal deficit as it has a relatively more positive effect on inflation, it could be an important policy implication of the study.

Islamic Financial Development between the Volatility of Inflation and the Revival of Economic Growth in the MENA Region

The objective of this article is to study, firsty the direct and indirect effects of Islamic financial development on the variables of economic growth while highlighting the inflastionist situation during the period 2009-2020. Secondy, our empirical contribution is based on the use of simultaneous equation models. Thirdy, we analyze the results found while showing to what extent Islamic financial development remains effective in slowing economic growth when there is an inflationary situation for our MENA study region.

Effect of Inflation on Sri Lankan Banks’ Performance: Mediation Effect of Interest Income and Expenses

This study hypothesizes that the inflationary effects on bank performance are not straightforward but mediates through interest income and expenditure. This hypothesis is tested in the Sri Lankan context, referring to 17 licensed banks from 2011 to 2019. Findings were obtained using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) model, and the results were tested for robustness by applying Three-Stage Least Squares Regression (3SLS) model. Results indicated that interest expenses negatively significant as a mediator between inflation and banks’ performance. In contrast, the effect of interest income is positive. Therefore, a significantly negative overall effect can be expected because interest expenses are relatively more substantial than the influence of interest income on the banks' performance. Furthermore, although banks with excess savings can grant loans to the customers, customers are reluctant to gain the loans because they have to spend more interest in an inflationary situation.

Analysis of inflation influencing factor system based on M-F model and fuzzy statistical test

When the new model is used to comprehensively study the dynamic influencing factors of inflation, the conclusions drawn can reflect economic conditions more truly, and can provide more practical policy recommendations for macroeconomic management. According to the machine learning algorithm and the current situation of inflation, this paper constructs an analysis model of the factors affecting inflation based on the M-F model. Moreover, by analyzing the linkage relationship between exchange rate and interest rate under the current economic background, based on the M-F-D model of machine learning, this paper conducts an empirical test on the linkage effect of interest rate and exchange rate since my country’s exchange rate reform. In addition, this paper selects 10 macroeconomic indicators related to inflation from the macroeconomic data and uses the time-varying parameter state space model to conduct a comprehensive analysis. The research results show that the model constructed in this paper has a certain effect in the research of inflationary factors.

The Impact of Inflation on Corporate Finance and Countermeasures

<p>Once inflation occurs, it will have an important impact on the company's financial management. Under the circumstances of inflation, it will face low wages and rising prices, which will also affect the company's financial management. This article focuses on the analysis and discussion of the impact of inflation on corporate finance and countermeasures. First, the concept and specific situation of inflation are introduced, then the impact of inflation on the company's financial management is analyzed. Finally,effective countermeasures are put forward to do a good job in the company's financial management under inflation.</p>